Challenges, solutions and lessons learned from the population experts. Conference slides from ASBA 2017.

1. How to build a demographic evidence-
base for school planning
Challenges, solutions and lessons learned
Lailani Burra
Katie Bayley
Georgia Allan
September 2017

2. The planning challenge

3. Higher than NSW
Size and speed of
school-age
population growth
By 2026 there will be 705,000
more children in our schools
than there are today
Population growth by age, Australia 2016-2026
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000

4. Net overseas migration, Australia, 1972-2017
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Netoverseasmigration

5. Fertility rates and number of births Australia, 1976-2016
5
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Averagenumberofchildren
Births Births Fertility Rate

6. Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics: Note: 2017 net overseas migration is based on 6 months of dataHigher than NSW
Changing fortunes of
the States
Share of net overseas migration
Major states, 1972-2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Shareofnetoverseasmigration
Year ending June 30
VIC
NSW
QLD
WA
SA
The rise and fall of the mining
states and the dominance of
Melbourne and Sydney

7. Learning together

8. 18 years working with education providers

9. Higher than NSW
What questions do
school planners
typically ask?
- Is there sufficient future enrolment demand to
support capital works?
- Where should I be directing my marketing
expenditure to increase enrolments?
- Where are my school’s kids travelling from and does a
new bus route in a particular area stack up?
- Should I consider opening a new campus, and if so,
where?
- Are there enough pre-school kids around the school
to support an ELC? Should I be planning for an extra
stream of Yr 5s?
- What other schools are opening up around me and
how are their enrolments tracking?

10. Current supply Potential market Future demandCurrent
demand
• Forecast school age
population
• Apply market share
• Analyse your market
share
• Location of student
enrolments
• Number of local children
• Income, religious and
socio-economic profile
• Location of your school
• Location of other schools
Higher than NSW
Market analysis
methodology
- How many schools
are in your area?
- Are schools in our
area growing or
shrinking?
- What is the current
demand for our
school?
- How many kids are
there locally?
- Do incomes
support
Independent
schooling?
- What is the
propensity for
students to attend
independent
schools?
- Where are there
opportunities to
grow our current
market share?
- How many
children will there
be in future?
- Where will growth
occur and when?
- What does this
mean for future
enrolments?

11. Higher than NSW
How many schools
are in your area?
Map your school.
Map other schools and
analyse their enrolments.
Australian Schools List (ACARA)My School website
Current supply

12. Higher than NSW
Where are my
students living?
Map student address data.
Current demand

13. Higher than NSW
Where is my
catchment?
Determine logical catchment
area.
Current demand

14. Higher than NSW
How many children
are there in my
catchment area?
Number of 5-11 year olds in the
catchment from Census.
profile.id.com.au
Current demand

15. Higher than NSW
What is their income
and socioeconomic
profile?
Review income data for
catchment from Census
profile.id.com.au
Current demand

16. Higher than NSW
What is my current
market share?
Number of enrolled students
living in catchment / total
number of children aged 5-11
91%
9%
Market share
Government Independent & Catholic
Potential
market

17. Higher than NSW
How many children
will live in my
catchment in the
future?
Access forecasts for 5-11 year
olds for catchment area.
forecast.id.com.au
Future demand

18. Tips and tricks

19. Turning spreadsheets
into stories
Data quality is critical

20. Higher than NSW
Finding data to
match my catchment
Data sets are collected for
different geographic areas.

21. Higher than NSW
Finding data for
school aged children
School catchments are rarely
the same as data catchments
ABS Quick Stats

22. Higher than NSW
One dataset doesn’t
tell the whole story
Try looking at several sets in
combination – this is called a
cross-tab.

23. Accurate micro-
geography
population
forecasts
Purpose designed for school
planners
• Single year of age
• Single year forecasts
• Sub-catchment geography
Change in 5-11 year olds, by SAFi area, 2017-2022

24. Higher than NSW
Telling the whole story

29. Higher than NSW
Useful links
Demographic resources
www.id.com.au
• Demographic resource centre – community profile and
population forecasts
• Blog with demographic content for education providers
• Case studies for the education sector
• Ebook – “Planning education provision in a changing
Australia”
ACARA school list
https://www.acara.edu.au/reporting/acara-school-list
MySchools
https://www.myschool.edu.au/

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