The document provides an economic overview and outlook for the Northern Utah economy. It summarizes recent employment trends which show a decline in total nonfarm jobs from 2011 to 2012 for most counties in the region. The top industries that drive the economy are discussed, including government, retail, healthcare, manufacturing, and education. Projections estimate continued growth in healthcare and construction jobs. Issues like sequestration and the European debt crisis are noted as having potential impacts on economic growth.

1. T H E N O R T H E R N U T A H E C O N O M Y
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
AND OUTLOOK
Tyson Smith - Regional Economist May 8, 2013

2. EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
HOW HAS EMPLOYMENT CHANGED?

3. UTAH YEAR-OVER CHANGE
IN TOTAL NONFARM JOBS BY COUNTY
(DEC. 2011 – DEC. 2012)
-7.3%
-6.6%
-4.6%
-4.5%
-2.0%
-1.9%
-1.5%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.4%
0.8%
0.9%
1.5%
2.0%
2.1%
2.3%
2.8%
2.9%
2.9%
3.0%
3.7%
3.7%
4.1%
5.1%
5.5%
5.6%
5.6%
6.6%
6.8%
8.1%
Emery
Daggett
Carbon
Rich
San Juan
Uintah
Tooele
Piute
Iron
Sevier
Box Elder
Morgan
Garfield
Weber
Cache
Davis
Sanpete
Millard
Summit
Kane
State Avg.
Wayne
Salt Lake
Grand
Juab
Utah
Washington
Beaver
Wasatch
Duchesne

4. WASATCH FRONT NORTH
RECENT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY COUNTY
(2002 – 2012)
2%
1%
4%
3%
5%
3%
-0.2%
-3%
1%
5%
3%
-0.3%
7%
8%
-1%
1%
6%
-5%
-3%
-1%
-1%
-2%
-0.1%
1%
1% 1%
3%
3%
-0.2%
-5%
-1%
0.5%
2%
165,000
170,000
175,000
180,000
185,000
190,000
195,000
200,000
205,000
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
TotalNonfarmEmployment
PercentChangeinEmploymentfromPreviousYear
Davis Morgan Weber Total Employment
201,787
192,196
201,722

5. WASATCH FRONT NORTH
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY COUNTY
(SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Aug
2009
Dec Apr Aug
2010
Dec Apr Aug
2011
Dec Apr Aug
2012
Dec
Davis County
Davis Utah U.S.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Aug
2009
Dec Apr Aug
2010
Dec Apr Aug
2011
Dec Apr Aug
2012
Dec
Morgan County
Morgan Utah U.S.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Aug
2009
Dec Apr Aug
2010
Dec Apr Aug
2011
Dec Apr Aug
2012
Dec
Weber County
Weber Utah U.S.
Source: Department of Workforce Services
7.0%
4.9%
8.9%
5.7%
6.8%
4.9%

6. WASATCH FRONT NORTH INITIAL
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS WEEKLY AVERAGE
(1ST QUARTER OF EACH YEAR)
Source: Department of Workforce Services
245 258
323
690
546
487
392
368
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

7. WASATCH FRONT NORTH INITIAL
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS BY COUNTY
(FOUR-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE)
Source: Department of Workforce Services
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan Apr Jul Oct
Davis County
Davis 2013
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan Apr Jul Oct
Weber County
Weber 2013
6-yr Range
6-yr Range
0
5
10
15
20
Jan Apr Jul Oct
Morgan County
Morgan 2013 6-yr Range
132.5
166.0
3.5

8. IMPORTANT INDUSTRIES
WHAT DRIVES THE ECONOMY?

9. 14.2%
12.3%
11.7%
11.3%
10.0%
7.4%
6.0%
5.5%
5.1%
16.9%
Government (Excluding Education & Health Care)
Retail Trade (Private)
Health Care & Social Assistance (Public & Private)
Manufacturing (Private)
Educational Services (Public & Private)
Accommodation & Food Services (Private)
Construction (Private)
Administrative & Waste Services (Private)
Professional & Technical Services (Private)
Other Industries (Private)
WASATCH FRONT NORTH EMPLOYMENT
DISTRIBUTION BY INDUSTRY 2012
(AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT)
Source: Department of Workforce Services

10. WASATCH FRONT NORTH WAGES
(BY INDUSTRY)
Source: Department of Workforce Services
$12,783
$13,991
$22,844
$24,632
$26,618
$27,706
$29,161
$31,342
$37,472
$39,458
$40,328
$42,376
$46,293
$47,667
$48,883
$50,702
$53,241
$57,729
$61,898
$82,375
$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000
Accommodation & food services
Arts, entertainment, & recreation
Administrative & waste services
Retail trade
Other services
Agriculture & Forestry
Educational services
Real estate & rental & leasing
Health care & social assistance
Transportation & warehousing
Information
Construction
Finance & insurance
Mining
Wholesale trade
Manufacturing
Government (less Ed. & Health)
Professional & technical services
Management of companies
Utilities
Average Annual
Wage in the WFN:
$37,675

11. WASATCH FRONT NORTH
YEAR-OVER CHANGE IN NONFARM JOBS
(BY INDUSTRY)
Source: Department of Workforce Services
-2.6%
-2.3%
-2.3%
0.9%
1.0%
1.5%
1.5%
1.8%
2.3%
2.6%
2.8%
2.8%
3.0%
3.5%
3.9%
4.1%
5.8%
6.1%
7.7%
8.9%
-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
Wholesale Trade
Total Government (excluding Education and Health Care)
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Finance and Insurance
Utilities
Total Education
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Transportation and Warehousing
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Total Health Care and Social Assistance
Information
Retail Trade
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Manufacturing
Construction
Administrative and Support and Waste Management
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

12. Government (Excluding
Education & Health Care)
Retail Trade
Health Care &
Social Assistance
Manufacturing
Educational Services
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
PercentofNonfarmEmployment
Recessions
WASATCH FRONT NORTH
INDUSTRY TRENDS
(TOP FIVE INDUSTRIES)
Source: Department of Workforce Services

13. 0.8
1.0
1.2
0.7
1.3
0.8
1.1
1.1
0.9
0.8
$-
$15,000
$30,000
$45,000
$60,000
$75,000
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
AnnualWages
Percent of Total Employment
Government (excluding
Education & Health Care)
WASATCH FRONT NORTH
WAGES AND LOCATION QUOTIENTS
(TOP 10 INDUSTRIES)
Location Quotient of 1
(based on U.S. statistics)LQ
ManufacturingProfessional &
Technical Services
Transportation &
Warehousing
Construction
Administrative &
Waste Service
Accommodation &
Food Services
Educational
Service
Health Care & Social Services
Retail Trade
Average Annual
Wage in the WFN:
$37,675
Source: Department of Workforce Services

14. WEBER COUNTY
WAGES AND LOCATION QUOTIENTS
(TOP 10 INDUSTRIES)
Source: Department of Workforce Services
1.40.9
1.00.8
1.1 0.9
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.8
$-
$15,000
$30,000
$45,000
$60,000
$75,000
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
AnnualWages
Percent of Total Nonfarm Employment
Health Care &
Social Assistance
ManufacturingFinance &
Insurance
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Government (excluding
Education & Health Care)
Retail Trade
Educational Services
Accommodation
& Food Services
Administrative &
Waste Services
Location Quotient of 1
(based on U.S. statistics)LQ
Average Annual
Wage in Weber:
$35,912

15. WASATCH FRONT NORTH
INDUSTRY TRENDS
(LARGEST INDUSTRY BY COUNTY)
Davis, Government
(excluding Education &
Health Care)
Morgan, Construction
Weber, Manufacturing
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
PercentofNonfarmEmployment
Recessions
Source: Department of Workforce Services

16. EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK
HOW WILL THE ECONOMY GROW?

17. WASATCH FRONT NORTH
TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EmploymentTotal
Total Nonfarm Employment Projected
Source: Department of Workforce Services
Projected Total:
233,865
Projected Annual Growth
Rate from 2010-2020:
2.0% per year

18. WASATCH FRONT NORTH
GOVERNMENT
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EmploymentTotal
Total Government (excluding education & health care & postal service) - Actual Projected
Source: Department of Workforce Services
Projected Total:
30,252
Projected Annual Growth
Rate from 2010-2020:
0.5% per year

19. WASATCH FRONT NORTH
RETAIL TRADE
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EmploymentTotal
Retail Trade (Actual) Projected
Source: Department of Workforce Services
Projected Total:
28,395
Projected Annual Growth
Rate from 2010-2020:
1.7% per year

20. WASATCH FRONT NORTH
HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL SERVICES
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EmploymentTotal
Health Care and Social Services (Actual) Projected
Source: Department of Workforce Services
Projected Total:
30,024
Projected Annual Growth
Rate from 2010-2020:
3.3% per year

21. WASATCH FRONT NORTH
MANUFACTURING
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EmploymentTotal
Manufacturing (Actual) Projected
Source: Department of Workforce Services
Projected Total:
24,565
Projected Annual Growth
Rate from 2010-2020:
1.9% per year

22. WASATCH FRONT NORTH
CONSTRUCTION
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EmploymentTotal
Construction (Actual) Projected
Source: Department of Workforce Services
Projected Total:
16,129
Projected Annual Growth
Rate from 2010-2020:
3.5% per year

23. WASATCH FRONT NORTH
PROFESSIONAL & TECHNICAL SERVICES
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EmploymentTotal
Professional & Technical Services (Actual) Projected
Source: Department of Workforce Services
Projected Total:
12,494
Projected Annual Growth
Rate from 2010-2020:
3.0% per year

24. OTHER ECONOMIC ISSUES
WHAT ELSE IS IMPACTING ECONOMIC GROWTH?

25. SEQUESTRATION
• The sequester could affect as many as 11,000 people in Utah, resulting in
$86 million in lost wages.
• The automatic spending cuts of the Sequester will affect employment
differently in different industries and occupations. Regions with high levels
of federal government employment, like Weber County and Davis
County, will be impacted more than other counties in the state.
• The Department of Defense estimates that the furloughs at Hill Air Force
Base will equate to a 20 percent pay cut. The personal income of
individuals that have to take mandatory unpaid furloughs will
decrease, which will negatively impact spending in these areas.
• The potential exists for 16,430 Utah workers to lose access to job training.
• The largest negative consequence of the Sequester is that it breeds
uncertainty in the market, leading businesses and individuals to be less
confident in the future of the economy. Uncertainty depresses business
investment and consumer spending, which negatively impacts economic
growth.
• The consensus amount economists and policymakers is that the majority of
the spending cuts in the Sequester will be averted making Sequestration a
short-term issue.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/sequester/interactive-map
UTAH

26. EUROPEAN DEBT CRISIS
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/04/european-economy-guide

27. C O N T A C T : T Y S O N S M I T H @ U T A H . G O V
QUESTIONS?
Tyson Smith - Regional Economist May 8, 2013