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Population growth in regional Australia
This document summarizes population growth trends in regional Australia. It finds that while regional areas account for around a quarter of Australia's population growth, this is less than their overall population share. Some key points made include: - Regional centers grow through natural increase, attracting populations from surrounding areas, overseas migrants, and migrants from other regions. - The fastest growing regional LGAs in recent years include Capel, Chittering, Weipa, Busselton, and Harvey. - Overseas migration is an important driver of growth for some regional centers like the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, and Wollongong. Migrants tend to be employed and help keep regional populations younger. - Some regional
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Population growth in regional Australia
- 1. Population growth inregional Australia A presentation to the Regionalism 2.0 conference, Wodonga, April 2016
- 2. informed decisions –the population experts .id is Australia’s largest team of population experts. Including: – spatial consultants – demographers – forecasters – urban planners We understand how cities are growing and changing We connect this knowledge to our client’s data We deliver this knowledge using online spatial tools that show relationships between supply and demand and support confident business decision making for our clients. Many regional capitals are already our clients – and population is a chief concern of most regional areas.
- 3. Population growth inRegional Australia • There are 2 ways any place can grow: • Natural increase (more births than deaths). • Net migration inflow (more people moving in than moving out) • For regional centres, it’s worth subdividing this further into 4 categories • Natural increase (more births than deaths) • Drawing in population from surrounding areas (sponge city) • Attracting migrants from overseas • Attracting migrants from other regions and metropolitan Australia. • This presentation looks at the current state of play with population growth in regional Australia, and some centres which are growing or declining in each of these 4 ways.
- 4. How much growthis there in regional Australia?
- 5. National population anddwelling growth - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Building Approvals Population Growth
- 6. Share of population– 2015 by state/territory 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT Australia Population split between Capital Cities and Regional Areas - Australian States/Territories, 2015 Greater Capital City Rest of State
- 7. Relative share ofgrowth by part of state – 2010-2015 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT Australia Growth in population split between Capital Cities and Regional Areas - Australian States/Territories, 2010-2015 Greater Capital City Rest of State
- 8. Mismatch of populationto population growth, regional parts of states, 2010-2015 State Regional part of state share of growth Mismatch to share of population NSW 22.8% -12.6% Vic 11.1% -12.6% Qld 46.4% -5.2% SA 10.7% -11.7% WA 13.8% -7.5% Tas 18.8% -38.4% NT 0.7% -41.1% ACT 0.0% 0.0% Australia 22.1% -11.2%
- 9. Where is thegrowth occurring?
- 12. Migration between metropolitanand regional Australia – 2013/14 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Components of population growth by part of state, 2013-14 Natural increase Overseas migration Inter-regional migration
- 13. Migration between metropolitanand regional Australia – 2014/15 financial year -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000
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- 15. Australia’s largest centres,2015 Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth (3218.0), 2014-15 Centre Population 2015 Growth 2014-15 % growth 2014-15 Sydney 4,526,479 77,565 1.7 Melbourne 4,353,514 86,796 2.0 Brisbane 2,209,453 33,702 1.5 Perth 1,958,912 26,132 1.4 Adelaide 1,288,681 11,970 0.9 Gold Coast – Tweed Heads 624,918 10,798 1.8 Newcastle – Maitland 434,454 3,964 0.9 Canberra – Queanbeyan 424,666 2,825 0.7 Central Coast (NSW) 351,081 2,202 0.7 Sunshine Coast 302,122 4,864 1.6 Wollongong 292,388 3,333 1.2 Hobart 209,254 1,594 0.8 Geelong 187,417 3,236 1.8 Townsville 180,333 1,755 1.0 Cairns 147,777 1,359 0.9 Darwin 123,396 1,974 1.6 Toowoomba 114,622 1,044 0.9 Ballarat 99,841 1,332 1.4 Bendigo 92,888 1,122 1.2 Albury - Wodonga 88,949 1,153 1.3
- 16. Fastest growth inregional LGAs, 2010-2015 Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth (3218.0), 2014-15 LGA Population 2015 Growth 2010-2015 % growth 5 years Capel WA 17,316 3,124 22.0 Chittering WA 5,301 907 20.6 Weipa QLD 3,966 629 18.8 Boddington WA 2,537 399 18.7 Busselton WA 36,335 5,.671 18.5 Harvey WA 27,288 4,058 17.5 Gladstone QLD 67,464 9,767 16.9 Karratha WA 26,228 3,600 15.9 Augusta – Margaret River WA 13,807 1,856 15.5 Ashburton WA 10,951 1,441 15.2 Gingin WA 5,450 664 13.9 Dardanup WA 14,233 1,702 13.6 Northern Peninsula Area QLD 2,714 323 13.5 Livingstone QLD 37,001 4,095 12.4 Broome WA 17,308 1,892 12.3 Denmark WA 5,886 638 12.2 Surf Coast VIC 28,941 3,080 11.9 Maitland NSW 76,607 8,046 11.7 Hope Vale QLD 1,125 114 11.3 Baw Baw VIC 46,638 4,541 10.8
- 17. Fastest growth inregional LGAs, 2014-15 only Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth (3218.0), 2014-15 LGA Population 2015 Growth 2014-15 only Kondinin WA 1,055 4.8% Cook QLD 4,388 3.0% Hope Vale QLD 1,125 2.9% Weipa QLD 3,966 2.9% Busselton WA 36,355 2.8% Palerang NSW 15,897 2.6% Northern Peninsula Area QLD 2,714 2.5% Harvey WA 27,288 2.5% Capel WA 17,316 2.2% Gladstone QLD 67,464 2.1% Napranum QLD 962 2.1% Palm Island QLD 2,671 2.1% Augusta – Margaret River WA 13,807 2.1% Gloucester NSW 5,160 2.0% Maitland NSW 76,607 2.0% Greater Geelong VIC 229,420 2.0% Chittering WA 5,301 2.0% Roper Gulf NT 7,436 2.0% Byron NSW 32,723 1.9% Roxby Downs SA 5,078 1.9%
- 18. Fastest growth incentres Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth (3218.0), 2014-15 Centre Population 2015 Growth 2010-2015 Torquay 18,227 23.6% Busselton 36,285 18.5% Karratha 19,235 18.3% Gladstone – Tannum Sands 49,248 17.2% Bunbury 75,628 14.5% Emerald 15,225 14.5% Warragul - Drouin 33,386 14.2% Broome 14,776 13.2% Yeppoon 18,543 12.7% Highfields 18,771 12.5% Ocean Grove – Point Lonsdale 25,230 12.0% Cessnock 22,596 11.1% Townsville 180,333 9.9% Drysdale – Clifton Springs 12,882 9.8% Geraldton 39,825 9.6% Mackay 85,455 9.5% Gold Coast – Tweed Heads 624,918 9.4% Sunshine Coast 302,122 9.0% Ballarat 99,841 9.0%
- 19. Growing your populationby overseas migration
- 20. Historical migration -national 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 Annual net migration
- 21. Overseas migration…Capital Citiesvs Regional 11.4% 7.2% 39.3% 7.6% 12.2% 42.7% 27.6% 0.0% 15.8% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT Australia Recent overseas arrivals, 2006-2011, Capital City/Balance of State Capital City Rest of State
- 22. Largest overseas migrationinto regional cities from 2012 to 2015 (calendar years) LGA Migration (4 years) Main countries % Humanitarian Gold Coast 10,110 UK, China, India, Japan, South Africa 3% Sunshine Coast 4,205 UK, India, South Africa 2% Cairns 3,643 India, UK, Philippines 12% Wollongong 3,577 China, India, Syria, Iraq 26% Geelong 3,345 India, Afghanistan, Iran 24% Townsville 2,739 India, UK, Philippines, Somalia, DR Congo 17% Newcastle 2,631 India, China, UK, Afghanistan, USA 15% Toowoomba 2,471 India, Philippines, Afghanistan, DR Congo 29% Mackay 1,825 Philippines, India 1% Rockhampton 1,475 Philippines, India, Vietnam, Brazil 9% Shepparton 1,463 Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Iraq 27%
- 23. Labour force statusof recently arrived migrants in regional areas 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Employed Unemployed Not in the labour force Not stated Migrants in 2006-2011 Total population
- 24. Occupations of recentlyarrived migrants in regional areas 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Managers Professionals Technicians and Trades Workers Community and Personal Service Workers Clerical and Administrative Workers Sales Workers Machinery Operators and Drivers Labourers Migrants in 2006-2011 Total population
- 25. Migrants keep thepopulation young, humanitarian migrants more likely to be children. 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 0-5 6-11 12-15 16-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Age of Migrants by Visa Stream - 2006-2015 Skilled Family Humanitarian Source: Department of Immigration, Settlement reporting
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- 27. Sponge cities Sponge cityseems to be a term which has gone out of fashion. I still like it. It effectively describes a place, usually a regional capital, which draws population growth from declines in population in smaller centres and rural areas in the surrounding region. This is not to say they aren’t growing through other migration as well. Some examples of Australian centres which have a strong element of growth in the form of a sponge city.
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- 32. Population movement frommetro to regional Australia Some regional centres are effective at attracting population from metropolitan areas in net terms. These tend to be a mixture of • Young families seeking to escape the city. • Retirees • Young people attending university. Most examples are in New South Wales. This is because there is a strong driver out from Sydney due to extreme house prices, as we saw on the state migration chart. Recent internal migration data are now available from the ABS, though this is only at the broad region (SA4) level. It can give an indication of where metropolitan populations are going, however.
- 33. Region level –top migration gain from Sydney – 2011-12 to 2014-15 Region Net migration gain from Sydney over 4 years Central Coast NSW* 14,305 Southern Highlands/Shoalhaven NSW 6,486 Gold Coast 5,160 Mid-North Coast 5,152 Illawarra 5,107 Central West 4,552 Hunter Valley (ex. Newcastle) 3,610 Richmond-Tweed 3,075 * Note that some ABS collections consider Central Coast to be part of Greater Sydney
- 34. Region level –top migration gain from Melbourne – 2011-12 to 2014-15 Region Net migration gain from Melbourne over 3 years Geelong 6,116 Latrobe – West Gippsland 5,943 Ballarat 3,230 Bendigo 2,871 Hume North East Vic 2,684 Sunshine Coast 540
- 35. Losses of populationfrom regional areas to metropolitan Most losses are in the 18-24 age range, even where an area is growing in other age groups.
- 36. Losses of populationfrom regional areas to metropolitan But some areas have turned this around. Large universities and strong industries employing young people help a lot.
- 37. A word onhousing prices… One big advantage that many regional cities have is housing prices. The media focusses almost exclusively on capital city housing prices, particularly Sydney and Melbourne. Many regional cities still have quite affordable housing, even relative to lower incomes. Entry level – 1st quartile housing price Houses Units Sydney $598,094 $497,602 Regional NSW $281,393 $239,422 Melbourne $424,802 $363,538 Regional Vic $235,515 $196,333
- 38. Many large regionalcities still have relatively affordable housing, even relative to lower incomes Tamworth example Tamworth Regional Council Greater Sydney Median Annual income for workers (2011 Census) $40,560 $50,752 Median Annual income for workers (AWE adjusted 2015) $47,455.20 $59,379.84 Entry level (1st quartile) house price (2015) $244,921 $598,094 Median house price (2015) $311,379 $865,140 Multiple of income - entry level 5.2 10.1 Multiple of income - median 6.6 14.6
- 39. Which regional centresare expected to grow in future? What does the future hold?
- 40. .id population forecast Forecastgrowth in key regional centres Centre Population 2016 Population 2036 20 year % change Newcastle (LGA) 161,043 189,432 17.6% Wollongong (LGA) 208,565 243,156 16.6% Bathurst 42,354 52,851 24.8% Orange 41,948 50,497 20.4% Tamworth 61,036 71,166 16.6% Wagga Wagga 64,678 80,410 24.2% Albury-Wodonga 92,552 124,472 34.5% Port Macquarie 79,144 102,926 30.1% Queanbeyan 41,924 57,600 37.4% Dubbo 41,601 45,143 8.5%
- 41. .id population forecast Forecastgrowth in key regional centres Centre Population 2016 Population 2036 20 year % change Geelong 234,999 320,791 36.5% Ballarat 104,355 145,197 39.1% Bendigo 112,853 156,151 38.4% Latrobe Valley 75,825 91,103 20.1% Shepparton 66,222 83,782 26.5% Warrnambool 34,713 46,762 34.7% Mildura 53,568 61,301 14.4% Wangaratta 27,937 31,806 13.8%
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Editor's Notes
- #7 There is now quite a neat 2/3rds 1/3rd split between capital cities and the rest of states in terms of total population. But it varies a lot by state, with Qld and Tas being the most dispersed states, and WA the most concentrated.
- #8 WA is the most centralised state, with Vic and SA not far behind. This varies a bit depending on how ABS define the capital city. In 2011 they increased the areas of many state capitals, which now extend well beyond the urban area boundary, particularly in Melbourne and Perth.
- #9 Here we can see that in the 5 years ended 2015, Victoria added more people than any other state, but the share of migration into the regional parts of Victoria is extremely low. So this boom is driven largely by Melbourne. Melbourne is growing much faster than Sydney, but regional NSW is growing. In the last year only, just 8% of all Victoria’s population growth went outside Melbourne.
- #10 Victoria stands out having such a low proportion of population growth in the regional areas. Nevertheless, Victoria’s regional areas grew by as many people as South Australia in total. Queensland has the largest share of growth going into regional areas, but it is still a little less than the current population split between metro and regional.
- #11 These figures represent the variance of regional Australia’s population growth relative to the share of population living in regional Australia. So it’s clear that regional Australia could do more to attract population growth. Queensland is the only state which is close to attracting a balanced share of population growth to the regions, and in fact almost half of Australia’s ex-metro population growth goes into NSW and Qld. Tasmania’s regional growth has gone almost to zero with all growth going into Hobart.
- #13 As you can see some areas of regional Australia are growing fairly strongly. Regional Qld and outback WA did fairly well in percentage terms over the past 5 years. Regional’s performance overall is dragged back by some of the declining areas, like NSW Riverina, Mallee in Vic/SA and WA’s wheatbelt. So lumping regional Australia into a single category is a bit misleading.
- #14 You can see the ring of regional growth within about a 2 hour drive of Sydney and Melbourne here quite clearly. Beyond that, regional areas have to stand on their own and can’t benefit from proximity to a major city.
- #15 So, tying this all together – Regional Australia has significantly lower growth than metropolitan Australia, and the growth that there is, is underpinned by a combination of mainly natural increase, and migration from the capital cities. This is particularly evident in NSW, where net internal migration loss is a drag on the population growth, but more than made up for by large overseas migration.
- #16 This is just one year’s worth of data from the new RIME collection from ABS. It does show a clear trend. NSW loses population but that’s all from Sydney. There is net positive internal migration into regional NSW, mainly from Sydney. Also net positive migration into Victoria is higher for regional areas than for Melbourne, though most migration is within Melbourne or within regional Vic.
- #18 So, tying this all together – Regional Australia has significantly lower growth than metropolitan Australia, and the growth that there is, is underpinned by a combination of mainly natural increase, and migration from the capital cities. This is particularly evident in NSW, where net internal migration loss is a drag on the population growth, but more than made up for by large overseas migration.
- #24 We saw that overseas migration is actually a significant part of Regional Australia’s growth. Which areas are growing by migration?
- #25 Australia’s population growth has been underpinned by overseas migration, which has been above 200k p.a. in net terms since 2007. It now makes up 2/3rds of population growth consistently, year on year. However 2014/15 fell a bit, though it was still high in historical terms.
- #26 These two slides show the location of migrants who arrived in 1990 to 2005 and then 2006-2011. They show that there is an increasing share going to regional Australia, though it is small in numbers overall. Looking at the 2006 data (not shown here) indicates that this isn’t a trend of older migrants moving back to the cities, the lower rate was present in recent arrivals for the earlier year. So regional Australia really is taking a larger share of migrants, though still not huge numbers. Nevertheless, it looks like Regional Australia’s proportion of migrants is on the increase, at the same time as the total migration intake is increasing too. Let’s look at it by type of migrant (visa type)
- #27 Only Tasmania and Qld, the two most dispersed states, had significant proportions of migrants going into regional areas, and these still over-represented the capital cities relative to their general population split.
- #28 Regional Capitals across the country are taking in large numbers of overseas migrants. This shows the last 4 years. They also come from a diverse range of countries, and regional areas tend to take a larger share of their overseas migrants as refugees (humanitarian stream). Nationally, around 7% of all arrivals are humanitarian entrants. For regional capitals, many take in excess of 20% of their settlement as humanitarian.
- #30 By virtue of their younger age, recent migrants to regional areas are more likely to be employed, but also more likely to be unemployed than their resident counterparts.
- #31 Of those who are employed, migrants are predominantly employed in two categories – Professionals, probably indicating skilled migrants, and labourers, probably indicating others, including humanitarian migrants. The professionals are heavily in the health-care industry. Imported doctors? Also a very high employment in Accommodation and Food Services, which is the tourism industry.
- #32 Migrants keep the population relatively young. Humanitarian migrants are more likely to be school-age children than any other stream. Family migrants are older, while skilled migrants are concentrated in their 20s and 30s. Nevertheless ALL migrant streams are younger than the total population of Australia
- #33 Launceston is supplementing its population growth with substantial overseas migration, primarily humanitarian arrivals. Without this, population would be declining. Launceston now has the largest Bhutanese population in Australia.
- #41 Unfortunately these figures aren’t available for the individual centres, only the broad regions, but there is clearly a strong flow out of Sydney over the last few years.
- #42 Melbourne has far stronger population growth so the numbers going to regional areas from Melbourne are far less.
- #45 These are not median prices, they are 1st quartile, or 25% range housing prices. We use these prices and rentals as an indication of what a first home buyer may be looking at in the area. Sydney’s housing has become totally ridiculous and I expect to see a lot more migration out of Sydney due to it. Melbourne’s median has gone up a lot also, but the entry level remains, if not affordable, at least a lot less than Sydney
- #46 I stress this is a very simplistic calculation. I don’t normally like simple income to house price comparisons, because it glosses over things like dual income households, equity and entry point considerations. Nevertheless, the difference is so stark for many regional centres, it’s worth doing. In Tamworth, the house price/income multiple is about half that of Greater Sydney. You can do a similar calculation for most regional centres. Of course you also have to consider the range of jobs and unemployment rate as well. But it seems to me that capital city housing has been hyped beyond all reasonable valuation, while regional areas retain a sense of normality about it. Just check the rental yields. I should also point out that this simple analysis is for employed people only. Many calculations take total individual or household income, which includes pensioners and students, to show that housing is overvalued. I don’t know too many pensioners or students who are first home buyers..
- #48 .id product population forecasts for many regional centres, and for those we don’t, we have standard forecast assumptiosn for NSW and Victoria that we can apply. Some centres, particularly Albury-Wodonga and Port Macquarie, are expecting a lot of growth, based on current trends and land availability.