Move over baby boomers - it's not all about you!
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General perception that the wave of post war baby boomers are heading towards retirement age now and that this will have a significant (and in some people’s minds, catastrophic) impact on our communities. There will be a huge impost on our aged care services, a mismatch between the number of people working and the number of people dependent on their taxes, and there will be a skills shortage as the baby boomers leave the work force in droves. This view is often accompanied by a sense of inevitability – as if this course was set for us 60 years ago and there’s nothing we can do about it. At .id, our business is to understand population change, and how populations are likely to change into the future. We do this so that local government can plan effectively for these changes. Our research shows that there has been a significant population shift in Australia over the last five years, and that the rhetoric around the aging of the baby boomers may no longer be serving us well.
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Move over baby boomers - it's not all about you!
- 1. 1 Move over baby-boomers – it’s not all about you! August 2012
- 2. 2 It’s not all about ageing ... • Historical context of population change in Queensland • Recent shifts in population trends • Major slow-down in growth • What does the future hold? • Implications for local planning
- 3. 3 The rise and fall and fall… and rise of fertility Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2009-10
- 4. 4 Population by five year age group Australia, 1976 Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2008 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 1800000 Persons Age group 1976
- 5. 5 Population by five year age group Australia, 1976-1986 Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2008 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 Persons Age group 1976 1986
- 6. 6 Population by five year age group Australia, 1976-1996 Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2008 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 1800000 Persons Age group 1976 1986 1996
- 7. 7 Population by five year age group Australia, 1976-2006 Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2008 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 1800000 Persons Age group 1976 1986 1996 2006
- 8. 8 The common view of the future … Source: ABS, Census
- 9. 9 Something else is happening…
- 10. 10 Annual population change Australia 1971-2011* Source: .id based on ABS, Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2011 * Subject to change in June 2013 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% 1971-76 1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-11 Av.Annual%change Period
- 11. 11 Recent annual population change Australia 2005-2011 Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2009-10 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 %change Year ending June 30
- 12. 12 Historical migration Australia 1986-2011 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 Net migration
- 13. 13 Age of migrants vs population Australia, 2001-2006 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Persons Age group Overseasarrival Age structure Source: .id Small Area Forecast Information, 2010
- 14. 14 Total births and fertility rates Australia,1971-2010 Source: ABS, Births Australia, 2010 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 AverageNo.ofchildren Births Year Births Fertilityrate
- 15. 15 Significant demographic changes in Australia • Historic levels of population growth • Large increases in overseas migration gain • A reversal in fertility rate trends with decreases becoming minor increases (more babies) • Continued declining mortality rates (people living longer)
- 16. 16 How is it effecting Queensland?
- 17. 17 Population by five year age group Queensland, 1976-2006 Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2008 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 Persons Age group 1976 1986 1996 2006
- 18. 18 Population by five year age group Queensland, 1976-2011 Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2012 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 Persons Age group 1976 1986 1996 2006 2011
- 19. 19 Annual population change Queensland, 1971-2011 Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% %change Period Queensland Australia
- 20. 20 Comparative growth States, 2006-2011 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT State % growth 2011 5 year growth %
- 21. 21 Total growth States, 2006-2011 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT Absolute growth 2006-2011
- 22. 22 Population growth Queensland SLAs, 2001-2006 Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth Brisbane Gold Coast
- 23. 23 Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth Brisbane Gold Coast Population growth Queensland SLAs, 2001-2006
- 24. 24 Net overseas migration Queensland,1972-2011 Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics and .id unpublished 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Persons Year
- 25. 25 Net interstate migration Queensland,1972-2011 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Persons Year Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics and .id unpublished
- 26. 26 Age of migrants vs population Queensland, 2001-2006 Source: .id Small Area Forecast Information, unpublished, 2012 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Persons Age group Overseasarrival Age structure
- 27. 27 Total births and fertility rates Queensland,1971-2011 Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2010; ABS Aust. Demog. Stats, 2012 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 AverageNo.ofchildren Births Year Births Fertilityrate
- 28. 28 Gold Coast example… Source: .id forecasts
- 29. 29 Rockhampton example… Source: .id forecasts
- 30. 30 Tablelands example… Source: .id forecasts
- 31. 31 Population by five year age group Queensland, 2011 Source: .id Small Area Forecast Information, unpublished data, 2012 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 Persons Age group 2011
- 32. 32 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 Persons Age group 2011 2021 Source: .id Small Area Forecast Information, unpublished data, 2012 Population by five year age group Queensland, 2011-2021
- 33. 33 Source: .id Small Area Forecast Information, unpublished data, 2012 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 Persons Age group 2011 2021 2031 Population by five year age group Queensland, 2011-2031
- 34. 34 Shifting patterns in Queensland • High levels of absolute population growth • Lower share of growth • Falling share of overseas migration • Falling share of interstate migration • Increasing births • In 2006 40-44 year olds the largest age cohort. In 2011 it is 25-29 year olds In 2031 it is 40-44 year olds
- 35. 35 What does it all mean? • Change is happening now! • What impact will a higher birth rate have on children’s services? • Ageing is still a major force, but with high levels of population growth Queensland also has to prepare for young people and children. • What types of housing will be needed to cater for this population?
- 36. 36 Population growth & building approvals Queensland, 1997-2012 Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth; ABS, Building Approvals Australia 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Number Year Building approvals Population growth
- 37. 37 Rockhampton example… Source: .id forecasts
- 38. 38 Rockhampton example… Source: .id forecasts
- 39. 39 Rockhampton example… Source: .id profile – ABS Census 2001, 2006
- 41. 41 Resources available for LG • profile.id – understand your community • forecast.id - plan for the future • housing.id - inform your housing policy • economy.id - understand the local economy
Editor's Notes
- Introduction How many baby-boomers in the room? People born between 1945 and 1962 ish. General perception that the wave of post war baby boomers are heading towards retirement age now and that this will have a significant (and in some people’s minds, catastrophic) impact on our communities. There will be a huge impost on our aged care services, a mismatch between the number of people working and the number of people dependent on their taxes, and their will be a skills shortage as the baby boomers leave the work force in droves. This view is often accompanied by a sense of inevitability – as if this course was set for us 60 years ago and there’s nothing we can do about it. At .id, our business is to understand population change, and how populations are likely to change into the future. We do this so that local government can plan effectively for these changes. Our research shows that there has been a significant population shift in Australia over the last five years, and that the rhetoric around the aging of the baby boomers may no longer be serving us well.
- Age structure in 1976 Understanding the age structure of the population and how it is changing is critical to the business of local government because so many services (childcare, aged care etc) are age related. 1976 – the largest age cohort was 15-19 year olds – ie those born between 57-61 = classic baby boomers Look at the comparison of children to adults – 2-4 children per parents
- Age structure in 1986 1976-86 – expected there would be a big increase in kids due to the large number of potential parents as the baby boomers come of age. BUT – significant decline in fertility (pill, social changes etc) resulted in less young people AND – significant decline in mortality (better health etc) resulted in more old people
- Age structure in 1996 Notice how the number of children is staying pretty stable throughout this period.
- Age structure in 2006 By 2006 planning for a decrease in young people in most areas. Steady as she goes scenario.
- You can understand why this would be the case when you look at this chart which shows which age groups grew between 2001 and 2006. General view is to focus on the aging baby boomer cohort.... Assumption that this is a fait a complit. BUT... in a country like Australia which has strong relative international attractiveness – we can do something about it...
- Population growth Australia has been through a period of record population growth since the 2006 Census. Well above the long term average of around 1% population growth per annum Note – the impact of the recession we had to have in the 1990s
- Population growth Australia’s population growth has been consistently between 1.5% and 2.1% p.a. since 2006. The largest growth was in the 2008-09 financial year, when the population rose by 456,000 people in one year. What drives growth? Immigration and natural increase… let’s look at each of these…
- Growth from migration The 2006-2011 period saw a very high number of people entering Australia. Well above the long term average of around 100,000 per annum. Peaked in 2009 at 300,000. Fallen to around 180,000 but still very high and we believe this will continue into the future – due to need to import skills and our relative attractiveness internationally.
- Age structure of migrants Migrants are predominantly young adults, some of whom have young children. A higher rate of migration keeps the population young and contributes to the higher birth rate as well. So not only do we have more people coming in to the country, but we have more people of child bearing age (more on this later). Not every country has the luxury of being able to use migration to boost its number of working age people – it’s only possible because of Australia’s relative attractiveness on the world stage as a place of growth and opportunity. Imagine dealing with an aging population in Greece? Or Ireland…
- Growth from natural increase In addition to high migration, the fertility rate has gone back up to 2.0. So not only do we have more people of childbearing age in Australia, but they are being more productive! A perfect storm. The average number of children born in Australia each year since the mid 1980s has been fairly steady at around 250,000. This figure has now been rapidly rising since 2005 and reached 300,000 births in 2009. That’s an additional 120,000 births over and above the long term average since 2006. This is not a forecast or an estimate. This is actual births data. These children are in the system – no wonder preschools and primary schools are being overwhelmed.
- Summary of drivers of change in Australia So what we are seeing has been a major shift in population growth patterns in Australia. This growth is being driven by both migration and natural increase.
- Queensland age structure to 2006 Did Queensland follow the same pattern of changing age structures previous to 2006? Queensland is different! Can you spot the difference? Higher levels of fertility – means more babies. In general, the impact of the baby boomers retiring is already softened as Queenslanders do their bit for the country and continue to have babies at a higher rate and attract young people of child bearing age. So even before the massive population growth phase that started in 2006, Queensland already had more diverse growth across all age groups
- Queensland’s age structure in 2011 Since 2006 – the growth in young people cohorts has become more accentuated. In 2011 the biggest age cohort was not a baby boomer cohort, but 25-29 year olds. There is growth in baby boomer age cohorts heading towards retirement but growth is occurring in all age groups….
- Population growth in Queensland What’s happened since 2006… Queensland has always grown at a higher rate than the national average… It continues to do so, but the gap is closing. In fact between 2006-2011 Qld grew at a slower rate than historically
- Queensland’s changing fortunes ... Queensland historically the fastest growing State. Been replaced by WA as the fastest growing State. In 06-11 only 4th fastest behind WA, ACT and NT Talk of two-speed economy – the mining states – assumed Queensland is on the positive side of the ledger .... BUT Percentage of persons employed in mining is lower than in WA – has less effect on GDP and consumption More trade exposed industries (tourism, manufacturing) Queensland does not do well with a high Oz dollar It’s all about relativities...which create push and pull factors
- However – I don’t want to over emphasis the lower relative growth – because the absolute numbers are still very high. And these additional 375,000 people are here in the State and require housing and other services.
- Distribution of growth 2001-2006 Note coastal growth. Inland decline. Growth right across Gold Coast. Brisbane middle ring suburbs not growing.
- Distribution of growth 2006-2011 Brisbane much same – a few pockets of decline. Gold Coast noticeably less growth. Inland growth – mining Coastal growth slowed dramatically (true on NSW coast as well).
- Queensland’s share of overseas migration Remember how important migration has been to the Australian story since 2006. How has Queensland fared? While overall numbers increased, Queensland’s share of overseas migrants fell. Queensland received 25% of o/s migration between 01-06. This fell to 17% between 06-11 By contrast WA’s share increased from 13% (01-06) to 18% (06-11). NSW – 29% Vic – 27%
- Interstate migration is revealing This is where you really start to see the affect of push and pull factors. Queensland has a pattern of boom and bust – influenced the Aus dollar and Southern housing markets (late 80s and 2000s) 1990s – Recession we had to have – VIC and SA most badly affected and people moved to Queensland Our forecasts are for 18,000 for interstate migration to QLD – lower end of the scale. Due to mining boom in WA and high dollar. Drivers for people to leave Sydney are not as strong. Drivers for overseas migrants to go to Brisbane still not as strong as Sydney. When things improve down south, some people return.
- Age of migrants Queensland attracts even more young people than the Australian average.
- Fertility rates in Queensland Queensland has higher levels of fertility than the rest of the country, and they’ve been more stable. But nobody expected the rate to rise. (Need to be cautious of latest year’s figures as still to be confirmed).
- What does it all mean for different areas? Gold Coast so big – provides a microcosm of the State – the three growth groups – baby boomers, young adults, infants…
- Even starker in Rockhampton…growth in three groups – babies, young adults, baby boomers...
- Where the baby-boomers do stand out is in areas that have not attracted a large proportion of Queensland's growth.
- And what of the future? .id’s forecasts for Queensland show a very flat age structure in 2011 (this is a good thing – lots of diversity in ages)
- How will it look in 2021? Assuming stable fertility, relatively low levels of interstate migration, relatively high levels of immigration (Australia-wide). Growth in most age groups. Biggest cohort = 35-39 year olds (due to previous high levels of migration)
- And in 2031? Continuing growth in all age cohorts. Conclusion – though ageing is a problem, it was not previously anticipated that there would be growth in younger age groups. But there has been – and this is true even in the rustbelt states down south. There was a belief that migration couldn’t be achieved in large enough numbers to affect age structure. But the last 5 years have proved that it can – if the conditions are right. Australia has to maintain its relative attractiveness internationally. Will it do this? Long term average for o/s migration is 100,000 per annum. 2006-11 we averaged 180,000 per annum It has gone down, but at .id we are assuming that this is a temporary lull and that it will go back up. People are exiting the work force due to ageing, and we have strong economic growth driven by the mining boom. These are the ingredients for a skills shortage which will require a strong immigration policy. Australia is positioned strongly to compete for skills on the global stage – e.g. NZ, Ireland Implications – for child care, schooling…
- Conclusion Though ageing of the population must be planned for, it was not previously anticipated that there would be growth in younger age groups. But there has been – and this is true even in the Southern states. There was a belief that migration couldn’t be achieved in large enough numbers to affect age structure. But the last 5 years have proved that it can – if the conditions are right. Australia has to maintain its relative attractiveness internationally. Will it do this? Long term average for o/s migration is 100,000 per annum. 2006-11 we averaged 180,000 per annum. It has gone down, but at .id we are assuming that this is a temporary lull and that it will go back up. People are exiting the work force due to ageing, and we have strong economic growth driven by the mining boom. These are the ingredients for a skills shortage which will require a strong immigration policy. Australia is positioned strongly to compete for skills on the global stage. For local government this has significant implications – for child care, schooling…
- Implications for childcare and schooling … Queensland has been used to growth in these age categories – but down South it is a bit of a shock to the system – schools have been closed, huge queues for childcare … etc. Let’s look at one are of delivery – housing…
- Have we been building enough housing for all of this population growth? Building approvals and population growth normally mirror each other. Since 2006 there’s been huge population growth but no increase in building approvals. Where are all of these people living? We’re not 100% sure yet, but have to assume that there are fewer vacant houses, more people in group households, less young adults leaving the family home (Packed to the Rafters scenario), more people living in non-private dwellings (aged care, students) House prices – are we in a bubble. Our view we would need a catastrophic economic event for house prices to fall – simple demand/supply equation.
- Have we been building enough housing for all of this population growth? Building approvals and population growth normally mirror each other. Since 2006 there’s been huge population growth but no increase in building approvals. Where are all of these people living? We’re not 100% sure yet, but have to assume that there are fewer vacant houses, more people in group households, less young adults leaving the family home (Packed to the Rafters scenario), more people living in non-private dwellings (aged care, students) House prices – are we in a bubble. Our view we would need a catastrophic economic event for house prices to fall – simple demand/supply equation.
- Have we been building enough housing for all of this population growth? Building approvals and population growth normally mirror each other. Since 2006 there’s been huge population growth but no increase in building approvals. Where are all of these people living? We’re not 100% sure yet, but have to assume that there are fewer vacant houses, more people in group households, less young adults leaving the family home (Packed to the Rafters scenario), more people living in non-private dwellings (aged care, students) House prices – are we in a bubble. Our view we would need a catastrophic economic event for house prices to fall – simple demand/supply equation.
- Have we been building enough housing for all of this population growth? Building approvals and population growth normally mirror each other. Since 2006 there’s been huge population growth but no increase in building approvals. Where are all of these people living? We’re not 100% sure yet, but have to assume that there are fewer vacant houses, more people in group households, less young adults leaving the family home (Packed to the Rafters scenario), more people living in non-private dwellings (aged care, students) House prices – are we in a bubble. Our view we would need a catastrophic economic event for house prices to fall – simple demand/supply equation.
- Finish by talking about the importance of understanding the affects at the local level – this won’t play out in the same way in every LGA or suburb = need for local data....we can help.