.id's demographic analysis of rapidly changing population trends in Victoria and Melbourne, both now and in the future.
Presented at the launch event for .id's Small Area Forecast information (.id SAFi) in Melbourne.
Key drivers of population change and population forecasts in NSW. Presented at .id's launch event for recently updated Small Area Forecast information (.id SAFi) in Sydney.
Presentation delivered to University of Melbourne students, May 2022. Topics covered include population trends, population forecasts and community infrastructure planning.
Launch event for .id's latest release Western Australian Small Area Forecast information. Demographic trends and analysis, followed by the state's future outlook.
General perception that the wave of post war baby boomers are heading towards retirement age now and that this will have a significant (and in some people’s minds, catastrophic) impact on our communities. There will be a huge impost on our aged care services, a mismatch between the number of people working and the number of people dependent on their taxes, and there will be a skills shortage as the baby boomers leave the work force in droves.
This view is often accompanied by a sense of inevitability – as if this course was set for us 60 years ago and there’s nothing we can do about it.
At .id, our business is to understand population change, and how populations are likely to change into the future. We do this so that local government can plan effectively for these changes. Our research shows that there has been a significant population shift in Australia over the last five years, and that the rhetoric around the aging of the baby boomers may no longer be serving us well.
Coined in the 1980’s, the VUCA acronym has been an
apt summary of recent decades (Volatility, Uncertainty,
Complexity and Ambiguity). In 2018 at the World Economic
Forum, the Prime Minister of Canada highlighted the
increasing acceleration of the trends with his statement: “The
pace of change has never been this fast, yet it will never be
this slow again”. Yet all of this was before the global COVID-19
pandemic further disrupted and transformed our times.
In such times, analysis of the trends and regular scans of
the horizon is essential to thrive amidst the transformations.
The primary characteristic of a leader, which enables the
important strengths of vision and decisiveness, is foresight.
The reason they can lead is that, having understood the
trends, they are able to see things not just as they are, but as
they will be.
At McCrindle we exist to empower human flourishing by
equipping leaders with research-based insight. Indeed
the leader with the honed characteristic of foresight, and
equipped with evidence-based insight is able to do more than
just see the future, they take up the great responsibility to
shape it.
We trust this report will help you understand the times,
prepare you for the emerging megatrends, and equip you to
lead and grow your team, community and organisation with
both humility and confidence.
Key drivers of population change and population forecasts in NSW. Presented at .id's launch event for recently updated Small Area Forecast information (.id SAFi) in Sydney.
Presentation delivered to University of Melbourne students, May 2022. Topics covered include population trends, population forecasts and community infrastructure planning.
Launch event for .id's latest release Western Australian Small Area Forecast information. Demographic trends and analysis, followed by the state's future outlook.
General perception that the wave of post war baby boomers are heading towards retirement age now and that this will have a significant (and in some people’s minds, catastrophic) impact on our communities. There will be a huge impost on our aged care services, a mismatch between the number of people working and the number of people dependent on their taxes, and there will be a skills shortage as the baby boomers leave the work force in droves.
This view is often accompanied by a sense of inevitability – as if this course was set for us 60 years ago and there’s nothing we can do about it.
At .id, our business is to understand population change, and how populations are likely to change into the future. We do this so that local government can plan effectively for these changes. Our research shows that there has been a significant population shift in Australia over the last five years, and that the rhetoric around the aging of the baby boomers may no longer be serving us well.
Coined in the 1980’s, the VUCA acronym has been an
apt summary of recent decades (Volatility, Uncertainty,
Complexity and Ambiguity). In 2018 at the World Economic
Forum, the Prime Minister of Canada highlighted the
increasing acceleration of the trends with his statement: “The
pace of change has never been this fast, yet it will never be
this slow again”. Yet all of this was before the global COVID-19
pandemic further disrupted and transformed our times.
In such times, analysis of the trends and regular scans of
the horizon is essential to thrive amidst the transformations.
The primary characteristic of a leader, which enables the
important strengths of vision and decisiveness, is foresight.
The reason they can lead is that, having understood the
trends, they are able to see things not just as they are, but as
they will be.
At McCrindle we exist to empower human flourishing by
equipping leaders with research-based insight. Indeed
the leader with the honed characteristic of foresight, and
equipped with evidence-based insight is able to do more than
just see the future, they take up the great responsibility to
shape it.
We trust this report will help you understand the times,
prepare you for the emerging megatrends, and equip you to
lead and grow your team, community and organisation with
both humility and confidence.
The following slides provide the background data and information that have informed the future trends identified under the population theme. This presentation should be viewed alongside those for the other themes in order for the wider picture to be understood.
Contrary to the popular belief in some parts of the world that international migrants take jobs away from Australians, by filling many of these positions and settling in regional areas, international migrants are actually helping create new jobs. By settling in regional communities, international migrants are also helping to provide stability to the local population and services as well as bringing more diverse and younger residents to these communities. In drawing on the RAI’s discussion paper, The Missing Migrants, this presentation outlines examples of successful regional settlement of international migrants. It highlights the importance of local government leadership and a grass-roots approach to tackling the perennial regional issues of population decline and long-term economic stability.
MC_forecasts_finals series 17_feb2024.pdfARCResearch
Final summary slide deck for Series 17 population, employment by sector, age group forecasts for MPO region, counties, and smaller areas...February 2024
Demographics of Senior and Veteran Housing in Rural America - Housing Assista...Housing Assistance Council
Keith Wiley of HAC presents demographic data on rural seniors and veterans and their housing. Presentation from the Housing Assistance Councils symposium "Housing Seniors & Veterans in Rural America: Preservation, Development and Services" in Council Bluffs, IA on August 28-29, 2013
Population estimates for the major jurisdictions in the 10-county Atlanta region is one of ARC's signature products. This presents ARC's 2013 population estimates which show the region added 40,100 new residents over the past year.
In the last decade, Australia's population has grown at almost unprecedented rates. While many of these people have settled in metropolitan areas, this growth has not filtered out into the cities of Regional New South Wales. In this presentation for the Evocities group, .id Economist Keenan Jackson looks at why 'access to Sydney' is still a big factor in where people choose to live, and the intervention required to attract people to these regional centres.
How much growth is there in regional Australia? In this presentation, we will look at some of where the most and least growth are taking place around regional Australia and why this is happening.
Looking outside of your place to other places is a very sophisticated way of building policy. This presentation will use examples across regional NSW to demonstrate how you can use demographic and economic benchmarks to understand one place in the context of others and develop policy that plays to a place’s strengths.
How has Australia's population changed over the years? Learn more about the shift in population growth through understanding migration, fertility and mortality rates.
Leadership Chapel Hill-Carrboro (Leadership) is an extensive program designed to inform, develop, connect, and engage committed and emerging leaders in Greater Chapel Hill-Carrboro.
This powerpoint presentation was delivered by The Chamber President and CEO, Aaron Nelson, on Thursday, May 26, 2022 during Session #3 as an introduction to the history, geography, and governance of the Greater Chapel Hill-Carrboro region.
Learn more at www.CarolinaChamber.org/Leadership
As an organisation who work extensively with the chief statistical organisations on both sides of the Tasman, our demographer and Census expert, Glenn Capuano, shares his experience working with data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Stats New Zealand.
We sometimes hear the story that rural and regional towns are in decline - that their populations are ageing as they lose their youth to metropolitan centres of work and play. And while that narrative is true for some regional towns, in this piece, Glenn looks at three towns in rural and regional Victoria, to show how the demographic story varies from place to place.
More Related Content
Similar to VIC population forecasts launch event: Marvellous Melbourne reborn
The following slides provide the background data and information that have informed the future trends identified under the population theme. This presentation should be viewed alongside those for the other themes in order for the wider picture to be understood.
Contrary to the popular belief in some parts of the world that international migrants take jobs away from Australians, by filling many of these positions and settling in regional areas, international migrants are actually helping create new jobs. By settling in regional communities, international migrants are also helping to provide stability to the local population and services as well as bringing more diverse and younger residents to these communities. In drawing on the RAI’s discussion paper, The Missing Migrants, this presentation outlines examples of successful regional settlement of international migrants. It highlights the importance of local government leadership and a grass-roots approach to tackling the perennial regional issues of population decline and long-term economic stability.
MC_forecasts_finals series 17_feb2024.pdfARCResearch
Final summary slide deck for Series 17 population, employment by sector, age group forecasts for MPO region, counties, and smaller areas...February 2024
Demographics of Senior and Veteran Housing in Rural America - Housing Assista...Housing Assistance Council
Keith Wiley of HAC presents demographic data on rural seniors and veterans and their housing. Presentation from the Housing Assistance Councils symposium "Housing Seniors & Veterans in Rural America: Preservation, Development and Services" in Council Bluffs, IA on August 28-29, 2013
Population estimates for the major jurisdictions in the 10-county Atlanta region is one of ARC's signature products. This presents ARC's 2013 population estimates which show the region added 40,100 new residents over the past year.
In the last decade, Australia's population has grown at almost unprecedented rates. While many of these people have settled in metropolitan areas, this growth has not filtered out into the cities of Regional New South Wales. In this presentation for the Evocities group, .id Economist Keenan Jackson looks at why 'access to Sydney' is still a big factor in where people choose to live, and the intervention required to attract people to these regional centres.
How much growth is there in regional Australia? In this presentation, we will look at some of where the most and least growth are taking place around regional Australia and why this is happening.
Looking outside of your place to other places is a very sophisticated way of building policy. This presentation will use examples across regional NSW to demonstrate how you can use demographic and economic benchmarks to understand one place in the context of others and develop policy that plays to a place’s strengths.
How has Australia's population changed over the years? Learn more about the shift in population growth through understanding migration, fertility and mortality rates.
Leadership Chapel Hill-Carrboro (Leadership) is an extensive program designed to inform, develop, connect, and engage committed and emerging leaders in Greater Chapel Hill-Carrboro.
This powerpoint presentation was delivered by The Chamber President and CEO, Aaron Nelson, on Thursday, May 26, 2022 during Session #3 as an introduction to the history, geography, and governance of the Greater Chapel Hill-Carrboro region.
Learn more at www.CarolinaChamber.org/Leadership
Similar to VIC population forecasts launch event: Marvellous Melbourne reborn (20)
As an organisation who work extensively with the chief statistical organisations on both sides of the Tasman, our demographer and Census expert, Glenn Capuano, shares his experience working with data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Stats New Zealand.
We sometimes hear the story that rural and regional towns are in decline - that their populations are ageing as they lose their youth to metropolitan centres of work and play. And while that narrative is true for some regional towns, in this piece, Glenn looks at three towns in rural and regional Victoria, to show how the demographic story varies from place to place.
A presentation to local business groups demonstrating how they can use .id's publicly available toolkit to understand the local demographic and economic profile.
Have Queensland's regional economies moved away from mining, agriculture and tourism as the key drivers of their economy? .id Economist Keenan Jackson looks at the ways in which the characteristics of certain regional economies are starting to converge with those more typical of metro areas.
A recent presentation to the New South Wales Business Chamber by .id Economist Keenan Jackson, reviewing the region's recent economic performance and progress toward the regional plan.
.id's senior economist, Rob Hall, looks at the four forces shaping the future economy of hte Southern Downs region, the key drivers of the local economy currently, and the influences of the changing demographic profile on the region.
.id's senior economic consultant, Rob Hall, investigates the key drivers of Australia's regional economies, explores the challenge of uneven growth and the transition to the knowledge economy.
.id's Senior economist, Rob Hall, explores the economy of Toowoomba, analysing changing migration patters, decoupling the link between economic growth and employment, the transition to a new skills economy, risks to regional competitive advantages and a closer look at the local University sector.
A presentation our client manager, Glenn Capuano, gave to the Cancer Institute of New South Wales about the changing, multicultural population of New South Wales
This work is designed to provide a practical resource for local government to address housing affordability, using census data-based time series analysis, to quantify:
- Who is in housing stress?
- How many are there?
- Where are they? and
- What can be done about it?
In the information age, you would think location matters less. In fact it matters more. Demography helps you understand how to be in the right place at the right time which is often the key to success in business. We will illustrate this with a case study that shows how Richmond Football Club became one of the top three clubs in the AFL for membership size by employing demographic evidence to inform its strategy.
As Europe's leading economic powerhouse and the fourth-largest hashtag#economy globally, Germany stands at the forefront of innovation and industrial might. Renowned for its precision engineering and high-tech sectors, Germany's economic structure is heavily supported by a robust service industry, accounting for approximately 68% of its GDP. This economic clout and strategic geopolitical stance position Germany as a focal point in the global cyber threat landscape.
In the face of escalating global tensions, particularly those emanating from geopolitical disputes with nations like hashtag#Russia and hashtag#China, hashtag#Germany has witnessed a significant uptick in targeted cyber operations. Our analysis indicates a marked increase in hashtag#cyberattack sophistication aimed at critical infrastructure and key industrial sectors. These attacks range from ransomware campaigns to hashtag#AdvancedPersistentThreats (hashtag#APTs), threatening national security and business integrity.
🔑 Key findings include:
🔍 Increased frequency and complexity of cyber threats.
🔍 Escalation of state-sponsored and criminally motivated cyber operations.
🔍 Active dark web exchanges of malicious tools and tactics.
Our comprehensive report delves into these challenges, using a blend of open-source and proprietary data collection techniques. By monitoring activity on critical networks and analyzing attack patterns, our team provides a detailed overview of the threats facing German entities.
This report aims to equip stakeholders across public and private sectors with the knowledge to enhance their defensive strategies, reduce exposure to cyber risks, and reinforce Germany's resilience against cyber threats.
Chatty Kathy - UNC Bootcamp Final Project Presentation - Final Version - 5.23...John Andrews
SlideShare Description for "Chatty Kathy - UNC Bootcamp Final Project Presentation"
Title: Chatty Kathy: Enhancing Physical Activity Among Older Adults
Description:
Discover how Chatty Kathy, an innovative project developed at the UNC Bootcamp, aims to tackle the challenge of low physical activity among older adults. Our AI-driven solution uses peer interaction to boost and sustain exercise levels, significantly improving health outcomes. This presentation covers our problem statement, the rationale behind Chatty Kathy, synthetic data and persona creation, model performance metrics, a visual demonstration of the project, and potential future developments. Join us for an insightful Q&A session to explore the potential of this groundbreaking project.
Project Team: Jay Requarth, Jana Avery, John Andrews, Dr. Dick Davis II, Nee Buntoum, Nam Yeongjin & Mat Nicholas
Show drafts
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Empowering the Data Analytics Ecosystem: A Laser Focus on Value
The data analytics ecosystem thrives when every component functions at its peak, unlocking the true potential of data. Here's a laser focus on key areas for an empowered ecosystem:
1. Democratize Access, Not Data:
Granular Access Controls: Provide users with self-service tools tailored to their specific needs, preventing data overload and misuse.
Data Catalogs: Implement robust data catalogs for easy discovery and understanding of available data sources.
2. Foster Collaboration with Clear Roles:
Data Mesh Architecture: Break down data silos by creating a distributed data ownership model with clear ownership and responsibilities.
Collaborative Workspaces: Utilize interactive platforms where data scientists, analysts, and domain experts can work seamlessly together.
3. Leverage Advanced Analytics Strategically:
AI-powered Automation: Automate repetitive tasks like data cleaning and feature engineering, freeing up data talent for higher-level analysis.
Right-Tool Selection: Strategically choose the most effective advanced analytics techniques (e.g., AI, ML) based on specific business problems.
4. Prioritize Data Quality with Automation:
Automated Data Validation: Implement automated data quality checks to identify and rectify errors at the source, minimizing downstream issues.
Data Lineage Tracking: Track the flow of data throughout the ecosystem, ensuring transparency and facilitating root cause analysis for errors.
5. Cultivate a Data-Driven Mindset:
Metrics-Driven Performance Management: Align KPIs and performance metrics with data-driven insights to ensure actionable decision making.
Data Storytelling Workshops: Equip stakeholders with the skills to translate complex data findings into compelling narratives that drive action.
Benefits of a Precise Ecosystem:
Sharpened Focus: Precise access and clear roles ensure everyone works with the most relevant data, maximizing efficiency.
Actionable Insights: Strategic analytics and automated quality checks lead to more reliable and actionable data insights.
Continuous Improvement: Data-driven performance management fosters a culture of learning and continuous improvement.
Sustainable Growth: Empowered by data, organizations can make informed decisions to drive sustainable growth and innovation.
By focusing on these precise actions, organizations can create an empowered data analytics ecosystem that delivers real value by driving data-driven decisions and maximizing the return on their data investment.
Techniques to optimize the pagerank algorithm usually fall in two categories. One is to try reducing the work per iteration, and the other is to try reducing the number of iterations. These goals are often at odds with one another. Skipping computation on vertices which have already converged has the potential to save iteration time. Skipping in-identical vertices, with the same in-links, helps reduce duplicate computations and thus could help reduce iteration time. Road networks often have chains which can be short-circuited before pagerank computation to improve performance. Final ranks of chain nodes can be easily calculated. This could reduce both the iteration time, and the number of iterations. If a graph has no dangling nodes, pagerank of each strongly connected component can be computed in topological order. This could help reduce the iteration time, no. of iterations, and also enable multi-iteration concurrency in pagerank computation. The combination of all of the above methods is the STICD algorithm. [sticd] For dynamic graphs, unchanged components whose ranks are unaffected can be skipped altogether.
5. What is SAFi
SAFi is a state-wide, micro-geography population forecast
Quantifies the demand for services across geographies and over time
Available for VIC, NSW, ACT & WA
Reflects development activity at a local level
Regularly updated
Proven over 12 years – fifth iteration for Victoria
Provides unprecedented insight into the future of Australia’s population – macro
and the micro level.
6. What SAFi can tell you?
Dwellings
Population
Household types
Age structure by single years (0-90+ year olds)
Breakdown by male/female
For every year from 2011 to 2041
For any geographic unit from state to
7,185 SA1-derived areas
7. SAFi is granular….
7,185 small areas
Population change by SAFi
area, 2016-2026, Melbourne
Source: .id SAFi, 2017
-168 to -25
-25 to 250
250 to 500
500 to 1,000
1,000 to 2,000
2,000 to 10,000
15. Marvellous Melbourne
Marvellous Melbourne – Reborn?
Victorian Population Growth Trends
Ageing of the population
Changing housing consumption
Three growth markets
Local and regional changes
Questions
16. Marvellous Melbourne reborn?
With thanks to George Augustus Sala from 1885
And Graeme Davison
It was on the 17th of March, in the present year of
Grace, 1885, that I made my first entrance, shortly
before high noon, into Marvellous Melbourne.
31. How has Victoria’s population grown?
Over 1,100,000 new residents in Victoria in the last decade. Similar number to gain in
Victoria between 1971 and 2001
Melbourne has been a magnet for overseas and interstate migrants
Historically Victoria loses population to other states in net terms, although in the last fifteen
years it has gained in net terms and has gained from all states in the last few years
Victoria is ageing but at a lower rate than expected as overseas migration gain and births
have supplemented the population under 40. Med age 2001 – 34.9, Med age 2016 – 35.9
Births continue to exceed deaths, but less natural increase over time, and more older people
32. Average annual population growth,
Major States, Census periods, 1976-2016
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-6 2006-11 2011-16
Averageannualgrowthrate
Period
Australia NSW
Vic. Qld
SA WA
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics; ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
33. Annual population growth rates,
Major States, 2000-2017
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Annualgrowthrate
Year to June 30
Australia
NSW
Vic
SA
Qld
WA
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics; ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
34. Net overseas migration, Victoria, 1976-2017
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics; ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
ShareofAustralia
Netoverseasmigration
Year ending June 30
Net overseas migration Share of Australia
35. Net interstate migration, Victoria, 1972-2017
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics; ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
Netinterstatemigration
Year ending June 30
36. Fertility rates and number of births
Victoria, 1976-2016
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics; ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
TotalFertilityRate
Births
Year
Births Total Fertility Rate Assumed trend
38. Population change by five year age group,
Victoria, 1971-2001
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Persons
Age group
39. Population change by five year age group,
Victoria, 2001-2016
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014; .id, SAFi, 2017
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Persons
Age group
40. Net overseas and interstate migration by age,
Victoria, 2011-2016
Source:.id, SAFi, 2017
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Persons
Age group
Overseas
Interstate
42. Population growth & building approvals,
Victoria, 1991-2018*
Source: ABS: Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014; ABS: Building Approvals Australia, 2017
* 2017 population based on 9
months of data
* Approvals lagged by 12 months
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Number
Year ending June 30
Population change
Building approvals
43. Average household size,
Victoria and Major Regions, 1981-2016
Source: ABS, Census, various; concorded to 31 Melbourne LGAs
2.300
2.400
2.500
2.600
2.700
2.800
2.900
3.000
3.100
Averagehouseholdsize
Census Year
Victoria
Metro Melbourne
Regional Vic
44. Dwelling growth, established versus greenfield,
Melbourne, 1991-2041
Source: ABS, Census; .id, SAFi, 2017
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31 2031-36 2036-41
Dwellinggrowth
Census period
Infill / major sites
Greenfield / Rural
47. Forecast population growth by age, Victoria,
2016-2036, comparing 2015 with 2017 forecasts
Source: id, SAFi, 2017
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Persons
Age group
2017 Forecasts
2015 Forecasts
48. Comparison of pop growth by age,
Victoria, 2016-2036
Source: id, SAFi; ABS, Population Projections, Australia Cat. No. 3222.0 (Series B); Victoria in Future, 2016
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Persons
Age group
SAFi
Vic in Future
ABS
56. Conclusions
Increased population growth is having a profound impact on the speed of urban
development in Melbourne
The impact of ageing has been offset with huge numbers of younger people
entering the population
Development in established Melbourne has increased across the City and we
appear to be heading down the Sydney path, but there are policy decisions to be
made re: greenfield land
The infrastructure legacy of the 1880s is there to see, let’s hope Marvellous
Melbourne reborn can deliver similar benefits
Given the current pace of development, monitoring and responding to change is
more important than ever