Australia's population trends in 2019 and their implications for business can be summarised in just 5 slides

1. 1
Australia 2019 – Key Population Trends in 5 Slid
David Christensen
david.d.christensen@gmail.com

2. 2
Australia’s 2016 Census, along
with recent Australian Bureau of
Statistics reports, provide some
food for thought for businesses
operating in Australia
These can be summarized in 5
slides …

3. 1. Population Growth
Australia’s Population Continues Steady Growth
• Australia’s national
average growth rate was
1.6% between 2011-
2016 and 1.4% since
1996
• Of the net increase of
1,971,00 between 2011-
2016 40% was
attributable to natural
increase (births/deaths)
and 60% to net overseas
migration
Business Implications
• The Australian population has
continued the same trend of the past
several decades, with a steady (but not
spectacular) annual population growth
of ~1.5%
• More than half of this growth is fuelled
by net overseas migration (with its own
set of implications) and continuation of
this trend is naturally subject to political
and other factors
• These factors notwithstanding, there is
every confidence that the trend of
steady annual net population growth
across the country in the region of 1.5%
CAGR will continue in the foreseeable
future
• The origins of much of this growth (i.e.
country of emigration) and destination
(i.e. by State and Capital City vs Region)
may, however, have a differing future
trajectory as discussed in later slides
State 2016
Population
5-Year
Growth %
10-Year
Growth %
NSW 7,739,000 7.2% 15.0%
VIC 6,179,000 11.6% 22.0%
QLD 4,849,000 8.3% 21.0%
SA 1,713,000 4.5% 10.1%
WA 2,559,000 8.7% 25.0%
TAS 517,000 1.2% 5.8%
NT 246,000 6.2% 18.0%
ACT 404,000 9.6% 20.0%
Australia
Total
24,210,000 7.4% 17.6%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2016 Census 3

4. 2. Aging Population
Australia’s Population Continues to Age
• The median age for the Australian population in 2016 was
37.3 years – up from a median of 34.0 years in 1996
• Australians aged 65 and over now comprise 15.2% of the
population, compared with 12.0% in 1996
• The percentage Australians 85 and over has almost doubled
over 20 years from 1.1% in 1996 to 2.0% in 2016
• Greater Capital Cities are in general ‘younger’ than the rest
of the country
Business Implications
• As the average age of Australia’s population
continues to rise (in line with the rest of the
developing world) this will increasingly create
both pressures and opportunities for a wide range
of businesses
• There will be an increasing number as well as
proportion of the population who are of
retirement age (65 and over)
• In addition to this pure demographic shift, the
nature of those now reaching and entering
retirement age (‘Baby Boomers’ – born between
1946 and 1964) are expected to take with them a
different set of values and expectations than
retirees born in previous eras (pre-1945)
• Spending patterns, expectations, attitudes toward
products and services, mobility, financial
considerations of longer periods of retirement and
numerous other factors will all impact businesses
in the medium term
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2016 Census 4

5. 3. Urbanisation
Metro Areas Growing at Almost Twice the Rate of
Regions
Business Implications
• Over the past 10 years, the total
Australian population has grown by
18.4%
• However the rate of growth of
Greater Capital Cities in each
State/Territory have been nearly
twice the rate of the rest of
State/Territory (21.7% vs 12.2%)
• This is particularly the case in the
two largest States of Victoria (which
had the largest population increase
over this period) and New South
Wales
• The trend is offset somewhat by
the growth of Queensland’s
secondary hubs of the Gold Coast
and Sunshine Coast
• It is important that businesses
recognise and adapt to the
continued disproportionate level of
population growth in Greater
Capital Cities versus regional and
secondary centres
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2016 Census 5
New South Wales 2006-2016
Greater Sydney 18.2%
Rest of State 9.0%
Total State 14.8%
Victoria 2006-2016
Greater Melbourne 25.6%
Rest of State 11.8%
Total State 22.1%
Queensland 2006-2016
Greater Brisbane 23.7%
Rest of State 18.5%
Total State 21.0%
South Australia 2006-2016
Greater Adelaide 11.4%
Rest of State 7.0%
Total State 10.3%
Western Australia 2006-2016
Greater Perth 28.2%
Rest of State 13.4%
Total State 24.8%
Tasmania 2006-2016
Greater Hobart 9.6%
Rest of State 3.0%
Total State 5.8%
Northern Territory 2006-2016
Greater Darwin 28.6%
Rest of Territory 4.4%
Total Territory 20.4%
Australia 2006-2016
Greater Capital Cities 21.7%
Rest of
States/Territories
12.2%
Total Australia 18.4%

6. 4. Changing Ethnic Composition
Proportion of Residents With an Asian Heritage Continues to Grow Business Implications
• 29% of Australia’s population was
born elsewhere
• Over the past 4 decades Australian
immigration has favoured Asia and
Oceania, rather than Europe -
resulting in a gradual change in the
Australian ethnic mix
• This change is exacerbated by
cultural attitudes that are passed
into later generations who, although
born in Australia, may still share
cultural views that are aligned with
their parents’ countries of origin
• Differing attitudes and behaviours in
relation to a wide variety of
products and services among
prevalent immigration cultures have
both positive and negative
ramifications for many businesses
and must be acknowledged
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2016 Census 6

7. 5. Household Disposal Income
Source: ABS (6523.0 - Household Income and Wealth, Australia, 2015-16)
Stable Disposable Household Income Business Implications
• Stability in disposable household
income over recent years may mask
pressures that will become evident
over the period of 2018 and beyond
• According to the ABS, as of 2016
29% of Australian households are
classed as ‘over-indebted’ (in Sydney
and Melbourne 43%) and
households aged 25-34 are 62% and
35-44 are 51% over-indebted
respectively
• Households were spending 59% of
their weekly expenditure on ‘basics’
in 2016 (56% in 1984) – and this
does not account for energy price or
interest rate increases anticipated in
2017/8
• It is important that businesses
maintain a cautious outlook on
projected disposable household
income in the medium term future
7
In 2015-16, the average
equivalised disposable
household income was
$1,009 per week. This was
not significantly different
from the average in 2013-
14 ($1,029 per week), but
it was a significant
increase from the $843
per week a decade ago in
2005.