presentation at launch conference of centre for sustainable work and employment futures, university of leicester

1. A CIPD perspective
on the Future of
Work
Mark Beatson
Chief Economist

2. Why is CIPD interested
in the future of work?
• To inform our influencing of the policy agenda – what are
the issues the current, next and future Governments will
need to address?
• To inform development of good practice and support our
members (training, qualifications, CPD etc.)
• To increase the impact and influence of the HR
profession

3. Why we need to build the
profession’s capability
2
2
70
63
66
16
17
42
44
33
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Don't know
Senior HR people have no involvement
HR involved in implementing the strategy
HR involved in communicating the strategy
HR involved in setting the strategy
‘To what extent are senior HR people in your organisation involved in
strategy?’
Business Leaders HR Leaders
Source: CIPD HR Outlook survey, autumn 2013.

4. HR seen as lacking environment
scanning capability
51
19
23
46
27
35
HR leaders Business leaders
‘HR scans the external environment and identifies potential challenges and
opportunities for the organisation?’
Agree No opinion Disagree
Source: CIPD HR Outlook survey, autumn 2013.

5. What are we doing?
• CIPD research programme – surveys and bespoke projects. Three
year programme 2014-17 focused around four themes:
– Human Capital
– The changing employment relationship
– Leadership and Management (including HR/L&D leadership)
– HR operating model
• Megatrends project
• Building Futures capability
• Spreading the word:
– Conferences (e.g. CIPD/ACAS NW March 2014, CIPD/MMU 11
July, ACE 5/6 November)
– Talking to CIPD Branches

6. • Aim – to help the
profession become more
strategic
• Long-term trends shaping
work and working lives
• Potential trends that
might shape future of
work?
• Designed to stimulate
debate
• De-industrialisation and rise
of knowledge-based services
• Technology and globalisation
• Ageing population
• More women in labour market
• Increased educational
attainment
• Decline of collective
institutions
• Changing employment
relationships

7. About trends • “A trend is a development
lasting several years that is
empirically documented.
Trends usually run a steady
course, and cyclical changes
and fluctuations do not affect
them, nor are they subject to
changes in course or sharp
rises. As a rule trends follow a
clear direction and their course
is robust’. (UKCES)
Sources: Jasperdo on Flickr, CC license; UK Commission for Employment and Skills, The Future of Work: Jobs and
Skills in 2030.

8. -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
Mining & quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply
Water supply, sewerage, waste & remediation activities
Construction
Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
Transport & storage
Accommodation & food service activities
Information & communication
Financial & insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional scientific & technical activities
Administrative & support service activities
Public admin & defence; compulsory social security
Education
Human health & social work activities
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Other service activities
Total services
All jobs
De-industrialisation and the rise of
knowledge-based services
(% change in UK employment by occupation, 1978-2013)
Source: Office for National Statistics

9. Technology and globalisation
Who will stay ahead of the machines?
Job Probability that total
employment will fall in
next 20 years
Recreational therapists 0.003
Dentists 0.004
Athletic trainers 0.007
Clergy 0.008
Economists  0.43
Technical writers 0.89
Retail salespersons 0.92
Accountants and auditors 0.94
Telemarketers  0.99
Source: Frey and Osborne, 2013 Source: IMF.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Volume of goods and services traded
globally, 1980 = 100

10. -677
-94
1,387
770
-305
186
1,235
1,956
15-24 25-49 50-64 65+
Demographic change:
Illustrative projections of change in employment by age group from 2012
baseline, thousands
2022 2032
Sources: CIPD calculations based on ONS 2012 Principal population projections and revised mid-year estimates for 2002 and 2007 , employment
rates for May-Jul 2002 and 2012 based on the Labour Force Survey and CIPD assumptions for employment rates for 2017 onwards.

11. 55.5
72.0
95.1 83.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1971
Q2
1973
Q2
1975
Q2
1977
Q2
1979
Q2
1981
Q2
1983
Q2
1985
Q2
1987
Q2
1989
Q2
1991
Q2
1993
Q2
1995
Q2
1997
Q2
1999
Q2
2001
Q2
2003
Q2
2005
Q2
2007
Q2
2009
Q2
2011
Q2
More women in the labour market:
Economic activity rates as % of population aged 16-64
Women Men
Source: Office for National Statistics

12. 11% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 24%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Increased educational attainment:
UK population aged 16-64 by highest educational qualification
Other qualifications
GCSEs grades A*-C or equivalent
A Level or equivalent
Higher education
Degree or equivalent
Source: Office for National Statistics

13. 34
18
35
50
31
50
22
27
8
18
36
18
26
11
Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK USA
Decline of collective institutions
(Trade union density as % of wage and salary earners)
1980 2011
Source: OECD.

14. 55%
57%
59%
61%
63%
65%
Jan-Mar
1997
Jan-Mar
1999
Jan-Mar
2001
Jan-Mar
2003
Jan-Mar
2005
Jan-Mar
2007
Jan-Mar
2009
Jan-Mar
2011
Jan-Mar
2013
Changing employment relationships
% of the workforce who are full-time permanent employees
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Office for National Statistics.

15. • Long-term trends
shaping work and
working lives
• Potential trends that
might shape future of
work?
• Designed to stimulate
debate
• Has job turnover
slowed down?
• Is this the end of the
annual pay rise?
• Are organisations
losing the trust of their
workers?
• Are we working
harder than ever?

16. 2.7
1.6
1.4
1.0
0
1
2
3
4
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Has job turnover slowed down?
Job separations as % of employees
Voluntary Involuntary
October-December each year. Data refer to % of people who left their job in the previous three months.
Source: Office for National Statistics

17. 0
4
6
12
-19
-25
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Are organisations losing the trust of their
workers?
% of employees expressing trust in their senior management minus %
expressing distrust
Total Private sector Public sector
Source: CIPD Employee Outlook surveys.

18. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan00
Jun00
Nov00
Apr01
Sep01
Feb02
Jul02
Dec02
May03
Oct03
Mar04
Aug04
Jan05
Jun05
Nov05
Apr06
Sep06
Feb07
Jul07
Dec07
May08
Oct08
Mar09
Aug09
Jan10
Jun10
Nov10
Apr11
Sep11
Feb12
Jul12
Dec12
May13
Oct13
Have we seen the end of the pay rise?
Real average weekly regular earnings, January 2014 = 100
Regular pay deflated by CPI Regular pay deflated by RPI
Source: Office for National Statistics.

19. 32
41
39
42
45
1992 1997 2001 2006 2012
Are we working harder than ever?
% of employees in who ‘strongly agree’ that ‘my work demands that I work
very hard’
Source: Skills and Employment Surveys.

20. Current project: ‘Are we getting better at
managing people?’
31%
51%
15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Employee views on how well their workplace is managed
Very well managed Quite well managed Not well managed
Source: British Social Attitudes Survey series.

21. Possible projects for 2014/15
• Rise of the selfie?
• Skills and qualifications – rise in over-qualification –
McJobs or McQuals?
• Has flexible working stalled?
• Are we failing our young people?

22. • Visit our website http://www.cipd.co.uk/cipd-hr-
profession/whats-new/megatrends.aspx
• Read the Megatrends report and our four follow-up reports
• Watch the video, listen to the podcast, read the blogs, look at
the infographic
• #megatrends
• Contact details:
• m.beatson@cipd.co.uk
• 020 8612 6364
• @MarkBeatson1
For more information

23. Thank you