From Town to Country- Understanding economic change across Queensland
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Have Queensland's regional economies moved away from mining, agriculture and tourism as the key drivers of their economy? .id Economist Keenan Jackson looks at the ways in which the characteristics of certain regional economies are starting to converge with those more typical of metro areas.
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From Town to Country- Understanding economic change across Queensland
- 1. From Town to Country Understanding economic change across Queensland Keenan Jackson 23 October 2018
- 2. Are regions still vastly different from metro areas?
- 3. Can you dig there?
- 4. Can you grow there?
- 5. Can you swim/surf/ski there?
- 6. Still true to some extent… 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 %shareofemployedresidents Regions vs Metro Industry Shares of Employed, 2016 Regional Australia Greater Capital Cities
- 7. However, not necessarily for regional cities... In 2016, cities like Gold Coast, Wollongong and Newcastle had similar shares of residents working in knowledge based business services as Adelaide and Perth Geelong, Toowoomba, Bendigo not far behind
- 8. Labour market outcome variances between regions have gotten smaller
- 9. Economic structures are converging
- 10. Qualifications uplift occurring everywhere
- 11. Similar for QLD - not a vast difference in unemployment rates 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Jan-2000 Aug-2000 Mar-2001 Oct-2001 May-2002 Dec-2002 Jul-2003 Feb-2004 Sep-2004 Apr-2005 Nov-2005 Jun-2006 Jan-2007 Aug-2007 Mar-2008 Oct-2008 May-2009 Dec-2009 Jul-2010 Feb-2011 Sep-2011 Apr-2012 Nov-2012 Jun-2013 Jan-2014 Aug-2014 Mar-2015 Oct-2015 May-2016 Dec-2016 Jul-2017 Feb-2018 UnemploymentRate% QLD Unemployment Rates, 2000 to 2018 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Greater Brisbane) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Regional Queensland)
- 12. Occupational and Industry differences converging 17.0 19.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 Managers Technicians and Trades… Clerical and Administrative… Machinery Operators And… Total Variance (percentage point) Variance between QLD Metro and Regional Occupational Shares of Employed 2016 2011 19.3 23.6 0 10 20 30 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Mining Manufacturing Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste… Construction Retail Trade Wholesale trade Accommodation and Food Services Transport, Postal and Warehousing Information Media and… Financial and Insurance Services Rental, Hiring and Real Estate… Professional, Scientific and… Administrative and Support… Public Administration and Safety Education and Training Health Care and Social Assistance Arts and Recreation Services Other Services Total Variance (percentage point) Variance between QLD Metro and Regional Industry Shares of Employed 2016 2011
- 13. What’s the growth story?
- 14. Return to growth of largest states 5.3% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% 3.5% AverageAnnualGrowth 0 to 1.5% 1.5 to 3.0% More than 3.0% 2.5% 2.1% 4.4% 1.1% 2.7% 2.6% 0.9% 2.9% 2007 - 2012 2012 - 2017 Changein growthrate Increase Decrease Unchanged
- 15. Population growth following 2.9% 2.1% 2.0% 1.1% 1.3% 1.9% 0.7% 1.9% AverageAnnualGrowth 0 to 1.0% 1.0 to 2.0% More than 2.0% 1.2% 1.5% 1.0% 0.8% 1.5% 2.3% 0.4% 1.8% 2007 - 2012 2012 - 2017 Changein growthrate Increase Decrease Unchanged
- 16. All States experienced welfare (GSP/capita) gains between 2012 and 2017 Only NSW and NT experienced an increase in GSP/capita growth rates Despite having a sizeable increase in GSP, Victoria’s substantial population growth meant that GSP/capita growth actually fell Queensland’s GSP/capita growth was basically unchanged between 2012 and 2017. Population growth weakened in line with slower GSP growth GSP/capita growth rates highlight weakness of large economic growth in Victoria 1.3% 0.6% 3.4% 0.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.5% 1.0% AverageAnnualGrowth 0 to 1.0% 1.0 to 2.0% More than 2.0% 2012 - 2017 Changein growthrate Increase Decrease Unchanged
- 17. Queensland LGA GRP growth rates 2006 - 2011 2011 - 2016 AverageAnnualGrowth Less than -2.0% -2.0 to -0.5% -0.5% to 0.5% 0.5% to 2.0% More than 2.0%
- 18. Queensland LGA GRP per capita growth rates – regional QLD holding its own 2006 - 2011 2011 - 2016 AverageAnnualGrowth Less than -2.0% -2.0 to -0.5% -0.5% to 0.5% 0.5% to 2.0% More than 2.0%
- 19. Regional vs Metro growth rates - convergence -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 2017201620152014201320122011 AverageAnnualGrowth QLD GRP per Capita Growth Rates, rolling 5 year annual average Metro Regional 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% AverageAnnualGrowth QLD GRP Growth Rates, rolling 5 year annual average Metro Regional
- 20. Nominal growth strong in metro 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% AverageAnnualGrowth QLD GRP Growth Rates, 5 year annual average 2006 - 2011 2011 - 2016 -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% AverageAnnualGrowth QLD Jobs Growth Rates, 5 year annual average 2006 - 2011 2011 - 2016
- 21. Per capita growth a different story -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% AverageAnnualGrowth QLD Local Jobs per Capita Growth Rates, 5 year annual average 2006 - 2011 2011 - 2016 -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% AverageAnnualGrowth QLD GRP per capita Growth Rates, 5 year annual average 2006 - 2011 2011 - 2016
- 23. Size of economy has some influence on growth y = 0.0116ln(x) - 0.0816 R² = 0.1268 -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% $1 $10 $100 $1,000 $10,000 AAGGRP,2011to2016 Size of Economy, 2011, (GRP $m) Economic Growth vs Economy Size, Regional LGAs, 2011-2016
- 24. Population growth impacts regional cities and service hubs R² = 0.0002 -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% AAGGRP,2011to2016 AAG Population, 2011 to 2016 Economic Growth vs Population growth, Regional LGAs, 2011-2016 R² = 0.284 -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% AAGGRP,2011to2016 AAG Population, 2011 to 2016 Economic Growth vs Population growth, Regional Cities and Hubs, 2011-2016
- 25. Mining marginal positive; Agriculture negative impact R² = 0.0298 -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% AAGGRP,2011to2016 Share of Employment in Mining, 2016 Economic Growth vs Mining Intensiveness, Regional LGAs, 2011-2016 R² = 0.1425 -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% AAGGRP,2011to2016 Share of Employment in Agriculture, 2016 Economic Growth vs Agriculture Intensiveness, Regional LGAs, 2011-2016
- 26. Manufacturing positive; Tourism no relationship R² = 0.1268 -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% AAGGRP,2011to2016 Share of Employment in Manufacturing, 2016 Economic Growth vs Manufacturing Intensiveness, Regional LGAs, 2011-2016 R² = 0.0093 -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% AAGGRP,2011to2016 Share of Employment in Accommodation and Food Services, 2016 Economic Growth vs Accommodation and Food Services Intensiveness, Regional LGAs, 2011-2016
- 27. Professional Business Services strong influence in regional cities and hubs R² = 0.3382 -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% AAGGRP,2011to2016 Share of Employment in Professional & Technical, IT and Finance, 2016 Economic Growth vs Knowledge Based Business Services Intensiveness, Regional Cities and Hubs, 2011-2016 R² = 0.1494 -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% AAGGRP,2011to2016 Share of Employment in Professional & Technical, IT and Finance, 2016 Economic Growth vs Knowledge Based Business Services Intensiveness, Regional Cities and Hubs, 2011-2016
- 28. Skilled workforce connected to growth R² = 0.1557 -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% AAGGRP,2011to2016 Share of Workforce with Degree Qualifications, 2016 Economic Growth vs Degree Educated Workforce, Regional LGAs, 2011-2016
- 29. Leading regions – mining still influential but unbalanced LGA Economic Driver Cook (S) Mining - Bauxite Isaac (R) Mining - Coal Gladstone (R) Construction - LNG, Port and Rail projects Banana (S) Mining - Coal Western Downs (R) Mining - Coal, Oil & Gas Cloncurry (S) Mining - Copper Mareeba (S) Agriculture Research, Population services Maranoa (R) Mining - Oil & Gas Gold Coast (C) Population driven Toowoomba (R) Mining services, Construction, Professional services Mining still strong driver of growth in many areas – in 8 out of top 10 economic growth regions (>$100m GRP), mining had a large contribution However, in regions with big economic declines, mining related activity also a strong driver Mining value growth = no guarantee of jobs growth; 3 top mining related regions had nil or negative jobs growth
- 30. In summary Regions still over-represented in resources based industries but this is natural Regional cities and hubs becoming more like metro areas Economic outcomes and skill levels converging between regions Economic growth has been strong in metro areas but masks the fact that this if often just driven by population growth, not productivity In QLD, GRP growth rates between metro and regional QLD converging; On per capita basis, recent GRP growth of regional areas above metro Economy sizes, sectoral differences and skill levels do influence economic outcomes but outliers suggest other factors can still impact