Idaho Department of Labor Projections and Hot Jobs - Idaho and SW Idaho

1. Labor Market Projections for Idaho
Industries and Occupations: 2014 – 2024

2. Background: Our Projections Program
• 10-year Projections – Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Industries and Occupations
• STEM Occupations
• Educational Attainment

3. Projections Are:
• Created every 2 years
• A count of jobs, not people
• A best guess at the future assuming a “business as usual”
approach
• Demand Side, NOT Supply Side

4. Projections DO NOT:
• Factor in technological change or innovation
• Include policy decisions (eg. new laws or policies)
• Include economic bubbles, crises, or even business cycles
• PREDICT THE FUTURE

5. Total Employment
Projected Values
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
[CELLRAN
GE]
[CELLRAN
GE]
0
250
500
750
1000
2014 2024
Thousands
Idaho
+1.8% Growth
[CELLRAN
GE]
[CELLRAN
GE]
0
50
100
150
200
2014 2024
Millions
United States
+0.6% Growth

6. Industry Projections
2014 - 2024

7. Regional Job Growth: 2014 – 2024
2014 Employment and Projected 2024 Employment in thousands
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
50
71
97
98
98
361
44
61
78
83
82
289
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
North Central
Southeastern
Northern
South Central
Eastern
Southwestern +2.2% Growth
+2.2% Growth
+1.8% Growth
+1.7% Growth
+1.2% Growth
+1.1% Growth

8. Annual Industry Job Growth: 2014 – 2024
Projected Growth Rates for Service and Goods Producing Sectors
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
3.9%
2.5%
2.3%
2.0%
2.0%
1.8%
1.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.3%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
-0.2%
Other Services
Construction
Leisure/Hospitality
Health Care/Social Assistance
Financial Activities
Professional/Business Srvcs
Ag, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Retail Trade
Educational Services
Public Administration
Wholesale Trade
Transportation/Warehousing
Information
Manufacturing
Mining

9. Idaho Industry Job Growth: 2014 – 2024
2014 Employment and Projected Growth
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
88,400
65,600
77,900
79,800
33,800
56500
53,900
15,891
28,000
59,800
23,500
28,700
20,200
Health Care/Social Assistance
Leisure/Hospitality
Professional/Business Srvcs
Retail Trade
Construction
Educational Services
Public Administration
Other Services
Financial Activities
Manufacturing
Ag, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Wholesale Trade
Transportation/Warehousing
Information
Utilities

10. Annual Industry Job Growth: 2014-2024
Projected Growth Rates SW Idaho, and the Nation
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
4.2%
3.4%
2.7%
2.6%
2.1%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6%
1.0%
0.8%
0.3%
-0.1%
0.4%
1.2%
0.6%
-0.5%
0.6%
0.9%
0.5%
0.5%
1.9%
-0.7%
0.3%
-0.1%
0.9%
Other Services
Public Administration
Construction
Leisure/Hospitality
Educational Services
Ag, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Financial Activities
Professional/Business Srvcs
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Health Care/Social Assistance
Manufacturing
Transportation/Warehousing
Information
Mining

11. SW Idaho Industry Job Growth: 2014 – 2024
2014 Employment and Projected Growth
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
29,778
20,961
39,852
42,890
35,585
23102
17,009
8,030
14,557
26,715
13,412
6,473
8,944
Leisure/Hospitality
Public Administration
Professional/Business Srvcs
Health Care/Social Assistance
Retail Trade
Educational Services
Construction
Other Services
Financial Activities
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Ag, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Transportation/Warehousing
Information

12. Industry Summary:
In Idaho, by 2024:
• 138,000 new jobs are expected: an increase of 19.8% over 2014.
• Other Services is expected to grow at 3.9% annually, the fastest rate of any industry.
• Health Care and Social Assistance is projected to add the most jobs of any industry –
19,500 – and grow by 2%, the third fastest among all industries.
• Manufacturing is projected to add 5,800 jobs and grow by 0.9%, 1.6% faster than –
and in the opposite direction of – the nation.

13. Industry Summary:
In Southwest Idaho, by 2024:
• 71,300 new jobs are expected: an increase of 24.6% over 2014.
• Other Services is expected to grow at 4.2% annually, the fastest rate of any industry.
• Health Care and Social Assistance is projected to add the fourth most jobs of any
industry – 7,300 – and grow by 1.6% annually.
• Manufacturing is projected to add 2,900 jobs and grow by 1%, 1.7% faster than –
and in the opposite direction of – the nation.

14. Occupations
2014 - 2024

15. Occupations in Idaho: 2014 – 2024
Projected Annual Growth Rates
3.1%
2.7%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.3%
2.2%
2.2%
2.1%
2.1%
2.1%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.1%
Personal Care/Service
Computer/Math
Life/Physical/Social Science
Arts/Design/Ent/Media
Construction/Extraction
Business/Financial Ops
Legal
Community/Social Service
Food Preparation/Serving
Management
Healthcare Support
Architecture/Engineering
Installation/Maintenance/Repair
Healthcare Practitioners/Technical
Education/Training/Library
Sales and Related
Transportation/Material Moving
Farming/Fishing/Forestry
Building/Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance
Protective Service
Office/Admin Support
Production
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

16. Occupations in Idaho: 2014 – 2024
Current Employment and Projected Growth
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
103,053
55,969
54,542
68,196
36,414
23,607
43,546
39,465
35,377
25,857
28,831
42,452
14,017
18,170
25,916
12,516
17,504
10,078
10,315
11,935
12,994
Office/Admin Support
Food Preparation/Serving
Management
Sales and Related
Construction/Extraction
Personal Care/Service
Transportation/Material Moving
Education/Training/Library
Healthcare Practitioners/Technical
Business/Financial Ops
Installation/Maintenance/Repair
Production
Computer/Math
Healthcare Support
Building/Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance
Community/Social Service
Farming/Fishing/Forestry
Life/Physical/Social Science
Arts/Design/Ent/Media
Architecture/Engineering
Protective Service
Legal Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

17. 0.73
0.74
0.77
0.81
0.94
0.94
0.97
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.99
1.00
1.01
1.02
1.02
1.06
1.10
1.11
1.29
1.34
1.85
2.57
0.53 1.03 1.53 2.03 2.53 3.03
Computer/Math
Business/Financial Ops
Legal
Protective Service
Transportation/Material Moving
Healthcare Practitioners/Technical
Food Preparation/Serving
Sales and Related
Healthcare Support
Production
Arts/Design/Ent/Media
Personal Care/Service
Office/Admin Support
Education/Training/Library
Architecture/Engineering
Building/Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance
Management
Installation/Maintenance/Repair
Construction/Extraction
Community/Social Service
Life/Physical/Social Science
Farming/Fishing/Forestry
Location Quotient
Concentration in Idaho: 2015
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

18. Occupations in Idaho: 2014 – 2024
Projected Total Openings Due to Growth and Replacements
[CELLRANGE]
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[CELLRANGE]
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[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
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Office/Admin Support
Food Preparation/Serving
Sales and Related
Management
Transportation/Material Moving
Education/Training/Library
Production
Construction/Extraction
Healthcare Practitioners/Technical
Personal Care/Service
Installation/Maintenance/Repair
Business/Financial Ops
Building/Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance
Healthcare Support
Farming/Fishing/Forestry
Computer/Math
Life/Physical/Social Science
Community/Social Service
Arts/Design/Ent/Media
Architecture/Engineering
Protective Service
Legal
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

19. Occupations in SW Idaho: 2014 – 2024
Projected Annual Growth Rates
3.4%
3.4%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.2%
2.2%
2.0%
1.8%
1.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.3%
1.0%
0.9%
Life/Physical/Social Science
Legal
Computer/Math
Food Preparation/Serving
Architecture/Engineering
Personal Care/Service
Business/Financial Ops
Construction/Extraction
Installation/Maintenance/Repair
Protective Service
Management
Education/Training/Library
Community/Social Service
Arts/Design/Ent/Media
Sales and Related
Healthcare Support
Healthcare Practitioners/Technical
Transportation/Material Moving
Office/Admin Support
Production
Building/Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance
Farming/Fishing/Forestry
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

20. Occupations in SW Idaho: 2014 – 2024
Current Employment and Projected Growth
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
25,848
46,272
29,755
15,176
15,637
13,708
14,551
11,196
10,485
17,246
16,355
5,386
12,692
8,374
4,908
3,486
2,700
10,142
3,340
3,848
1,250
Food Preparation/Serving
Office/Admin Support
Sales and Related
Management
Education/Training/Library
Construction/Extraction
Installation/Maintenance/Repair
Personal Care/Service
Business/Financial Ops
Transportation/Material Moving
Healthcare Practitioners/Technical
Computer/Math
Production
Healthcare Support
Community/Social Service
Architecture/Engineering
Life/Physical/Social Science
Building/Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance
Protective Service
Arts/Design/Ent/Media
Legal
Farming/Fishing/Forestry Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

21. Occupation Summary:
In Idaho, by 2024:
• Personal Care/Service Occupations are expected to grow most rapidly at 3.1%.
• Computer/Math Occupations and Life, Physical and Social Science Occupations are
expected to grow at or above 2.5% annually.
• Despite a slower rate of growth, Health Care Occupations are expected to add
11,400 jobs over 10 years.
• Despite it’s slower than average growth rate, Production Occupations should add
over 5,000 new jobs over 10 years.
• The majority of Production Occupation job openings will be related to turnover.

22. Occupation Summary:
In Southwestern Idaho, by 2024:
• Life, Physical and Social Science and Legal Occupations are expected to grow by 3.4%
annually, the fastest of any occupation group
• 3 of the 5 occupation groups with the fastest expected growth rate are STEM
occupation groups.
• While Health Care Occupations will experience a slightly slower than average growth
rate, the two health care groups are still expected to add 4,300 jobs over 10 years.
• Production Occupations will add 1,800 jobs over the next 10 years, however, most
job openings will stem from turnover, not growth.

23. STEM Occupations
2014 - 2024
Science Technology Engineering Mathematics

24. STEM Occupations 2014 – 2024
Projected Growth Rates for STEM and Non-STEM Occupations
23.1%
19.4%
STEM
Non-STEM
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

25. STEM Occupations: 2014 – 2024
Projected Openings from Growth and Replacements
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
+10,295
+7,698
Science/Engineering/Math/IT
Health
Social Science
Architecture
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

26. Total Employment
Projected Values
80,019
98,528
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2014 2024
STEM
615,248
734,820
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
2014 2024
Non-STEM
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
+2.1% Growth +1.8% Growth

27. Total STEM: 2004-2014 and 2014-2024
STEM Science, Engineering, Math, IT, Architecture, Social Science and Health
14.3% 13.6%
US Idaho
2004 - 2014 History
12.6%
23.1%
US Idaho
2014 - 2024 Projection
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

28. STEM Tech: 2004-2014 and 2014-2024
STEM Science, Engineering, Math, IT
8.8%
26.0%
US Idaho
2014 - 2024 Projection
11.3%
0.4%
US Idaho
2004 - 2014 History
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

29. Educational Attainment
2014 - 2024

30. Workforce Education
Projected Educational Attainment in 2024
[CELLRANGE]
11%
[CELLRANGE]
28%
[CELLRANGE]
23%
[CELLRANGE]
9%
[CELLRANGE]
19%
[CELLRANGE]
7% [CELLRANGE]
3%
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the American Community Survey
By 2024…
• 61% of jobs will demand a
greater than high school
education.
• 29% are projected to demand a
bachelor’s degree or higher.
• 39% are projected to demand a
high school diploma or less.

31. Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the American Community Survey

32. Why Education?
National Unemployment Rate by Degree Attainment:
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

33. Idaho’s Hot Jobs
Occupational Projections from 2014 to 2024
Hot jobs are defined as occupations that are numerous, fast-growing and well-paying.
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rank Shift Occupation Title
2024
Employment
Annual
Openings
Percent
Change
2014
Median
Wage
Typical Entry
Level
Education
1 ↑3 Software Developers 6,969 259 36.8% $36.35 Bachelor’s
2 ↑74 Lawyers 3,315 109 27.2% $37.04 Doctoral
3 ↑23 Management Analysts 2,959 106 34.4% $29.26 Bachelor’s
4 ↑22 Accountants and Auditors 5,385 229 27.5% $29.33 Bachelor’s
5 ↑19 Civil Engineers 2,133 96 28.3% $35.31 Bachelor’s
6 ↑25 Personal Financial Advisors 1,141 53 39.3% $33.82 Bachelor’s
7 ↑40 Business Operations Specialists, All Other 3,229 99 26.8% $30.03 Bachelor’s
8 ↓5 Physical Therapists 1,347 59 29.8% $37.64 Doctoral
9 ↑10 Health Specialties Teachers, Postsecondary 1,209 45 30.4% $39.33 Doctoral
10 ↓1 Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists 1,949 71 38.3% $24.76 Bachelor’s

34. Idaho’s Hot Jobs
Occupational Projections from 2014 to 2024
Hot jobs are defined as occupations that are numerous, fast-growing and well-paying.
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rank Shift Occupation Title
2024
Employment
Annual
Openings
Percent
Change
2014
Median
Wage
Typical Entry
Level Education
11 ↓9 Registered Nurses 14,357 242 20.3% $29.30 Bachelor’s
12 ↓2 Nurse Practitioners 752 18 32.4% $44.52 Master’s
13 ↓7 Industrial Machinery Mechanics 2040 50 32.3% $23.36 High School
14 ↑124 Veterinarians 745 18 31.4% $39.45 Doctoral
15 ↓10 Physician Assistants 760 17 28.6% $45.17 Master’s
16 ↑207 Public Relations Specialists 805 22 37.8% $28.33 Bachelor’s
17 ↑80 Network and Computer Systems Administrators 1,857 36 24.3% $29.28 Bachelor’s
18 ↑315 Conservation Scientists 519 18 54.9% $28.82 Bachelor’s
19 ↑21 Operations Research Analysts 572 18 44.1% $29.90 Bachelor’s
20 ↑73 Web Developers 1,466 50 52.1% $18.31 Associates

35. Idaho’s Most Numerous Jobs
Occupational Projections from 2014 to 2024
Rank Occupation Title
2024
Employment
Annual
Openings
Percent
Change
2014
Median
Wage
1 Retail Salespersons 26,814 447 19.9% $10.68
2 Personal Care Aides 12,421 361 40.1% $9.44
3 Food Preparation and Serving Workers 14,538 346 31.2% $8.65
4 Customer Service Representatives 19,646 338 20.8% $12.84
5 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 16,322 277 20.4% $17.70
6 Registered Nurses 14,357 242 20.3% $29.30
7 Waiters and Waitresses 13,145 241 22.5% $8.83
8 Office Clerks 17,409 233 15.5% $13.46
9 Restaurant Cooks 7,908 212 36.6% $10.42
10 Cashiers 16,825 182 12.1% $9.15
Hot jobs are defined as occupations that are numerous, fast-growing and well-paying.
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

36. Our Challenge: Labor Supply
Projected Growth in Jobs and Workforce 2014 – 2024
Source: Idaho Department of Labor Long Term Industry Projections and Population Forecast
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Thousands
138,000
89,000
49,000

37. Thank You!
Questions?
Ethan Mansfield, Regional Economist, SW Idaho
• Ethan.mansfield@labor.Idaho.gov