We sometimes hear the story that rural and regional towns are in decline - that their populations are ageing as they lose their youth to metropolitan centres of work and play. And while that narrative is true for some regional towns, in this piece, Glenn looks at three towns in rural and regional Victoria, to show how the demographic story varies from place to place.

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subtitle style
MAV Rural and Regional
Planning Conference
Population profiling and forecasting for Local
Government – The Regional Victoria experience.
May 2019

2. About informed decisions
.id is a company of demographers, housing analysts, forecasters and Census data experts
who have developed demographic information products specifically for the Australian Local
Government market.
.id stands for “informed decisions” and our work is to provide decision makers within
government and the community with readily accessible, easy to use information about the
people living in their communities of interest.
.id’s products give Councils the evidence base to plan housing policy and service delivery,
attract investment and promote their region, support funding submissions and compete for
resources, advocate for the community and work collaboratively.
Of the 48 Local Government Areas in Regional Victoria:
• 30 subscribe to our community profile (profile.id)
• 18 have our population forecasts (forecast.id)
• 2 have our economic profile (economy.id)

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• Presents Census data in a usable format, relevant to the local
area.
• Charts and tables are set up for “Dominant-Emerging” analysis.
• What are the dominant characteristics of this place (relative to a
selected geographic benchmark)?
• How are those characteristics changing over time?
• Benchmarks, years, and small area geography are negotiated with the
individual council, to best reflect communities of interest in the region.
WHY ?

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• But the main value-add is the ability to represent local
geography over a long time period.
• We adjust all boundaries to represent CURRENT geographic
areas (suburbs/towns/localities) for up to 6 Census time periods.
• 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016.
• The user can get on with telling the story of the place, not
needing to re-crunch the numbers, or worry about changing
arbitrary Census boundaries.
WHY ?

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See our high level profile for Australia, Capital Cities and Regional
parts of State: http://profile.id.com.au/australia

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Who is Regional Victoria?
• Current population of approximately 1.5 million (2018)
• Growing at approximately 20,000 people per annum
• Older than Metropolitan Australia, but also with more teenagers
• Ageing – in percentage terms, while there is growth in young people.
• Compared to Metropolitan Melbourne - Lower levels of qualifications, attendance at university, lower
participation rate but also lower unemployment.
• 87 languages spoken, with at least 10 speakers.
• 1.6% of the population identify as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander

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Lower incomes, but increases across
the board

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Increasing cultural diversity

9. VIC LGA
population
growth,
2013-2018
9

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GENERAL MIGRATION TRENDS
Interaction between Melbourne and Regional Victoria
• In net terms – young people move to Inner Melbourne, and some of the larger centres.
• Young families move to the outer suburbs of Melbourne, and growth areas around our bigger
centres. Some smaller centres also grow with low income groups seeking affordable housing.
• Mature families move to rural residential areas within commuting distance of Melbourne and
larger centres.
• More remote and smaller centres decline, while those within 150km of Melbourne, plus the
larger centres over 20,000 gain from these areas.

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But regional Victoria is not just one place. The main value of having .id is that we use local information to
tell the story of place.
We believe passionately that each place has its own story to tell, and we work with our clients to tell
these stories and understand them.
Take these three places in Regional Victoria….
Wonthaggi
• 130km from Melbourne in Bass Coast Shire, one of the fastest growing areas in Regional Vic.
• Growing centre of tourism area. Adding ~100-200 people per annum. But Wonthaggi is the service
town, not the tourism centre.
• Also attracting young families re-settling from the eastern suburbs of Melbourne.
• And some retirees.
• Older age structure.

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Wonthaggi is older than regional Victoria overall…
Ageing, but with an influx of young families as well..

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Household sizes are small, including older retirees and one parent families
Wonthaggi is attracting single parent families
seeking more affordable housing, including some
from Melbourne

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There is a large rental market, including some social housing.
Incomes are relatively low…and increasing at the
lower end.

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Bass Coast Shire
attracts families and
retirees from the eastern
and southern suburbs of
Melbourne, while losing
young people to inner
Melbourne (like most of
regional Vic) and
families to the growth
areas in the west of the
City.

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Casterton
• 370km from Melbourne in the far south-west of Victoria.
• Current population 1,642.
• Part of the Glenelg Shire which has stable population – Portland growing slightly, while the remainder
of the Shire declines.
• Typical of an older agricultural town, which has lost a lot of population and is now quite elderly.
• Challenge for local government in maintaining services to an older population.
• Population is probably close to minimum but still some ageing to come.

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Casterton has a median age of 55 (12 years
more than the regional Vic average), and 19%
of the population are over the age of 75.
Average household size of 1.99, has fallen
0.5 people per dwelling in 25 years.

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There are very few children, and 1-2 person
households are the norm.
Almost 50% of households are in the bottom
income quartile for the state (25% for
Victoria).

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Loss of young people from a more remote
area is quite stark.
The loss is not so much to metropolitan
areas, but to larger regional centres – in this
case, to Warrnambool, Ballarat and Geelong.

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So for our third example, let’s look at one of the larger regional centres…
Wodonga
• 300km from Melbourne in the north-east corner of Vic, NSW border. Part of the Albury-Wodonga major
centre.
• Current population 41,429
• Growing between 1.5-2% p.a.
• A young population (median age 36), major industries of Defence, Manufacturing, Health Care.
• Substantial new housing – families attracted for work, and much more affordable housing than
Melbourne or Sydney. Good transport connections to Melbourne, Sydney and Canberra.
• Population is expected to overtake Albury in around 25 years.

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Wodonga has a very young age structure,
dominated by people in their 20s and 30s,
and young children.
Still some ageing apparent, but there is
strong growth in school age children.

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A large rental and mortgage home buyer
segment.
Biggest increase is in renters.

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Incomes high for regional Vic (still a bit lower
than Melbourne), and on the increase.
About 28% of Wodonga residents work in
Albury, while 20% of Albury residents work in
Wodonga.

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Wodonga is gaining
population from surrounding
rural areas and smaller
towns (sponge city), from
Albury, and parts of
Melbourne and Sydney.
It loses population to inner
Melbourne and Geelong.
It gains young people but
also a lot of retirees.

25. What our forecasts are….
The most likely population and housing outcome (single
scenario) based on all of the information available to us at the
present time regarding supply and demand…
Not an aspirational forecast designed to attract investment.
Not “projections” – bottom up forecasts based on locally driven
assumptions.
Not an attempt to match any other forecast (eg State Government,
previous consultant reports)
Not based on using all zoned land, regardless of demand
…and what they’re not….
Regular monitor and review process – checked against current population every year
and reviewed and adjusted as required.

26. How do we do the forecasts?
We workshop a set of assumptions with council:
• Residential development assumptions
• Migration assumptions
• Birth and death rates (adjusted for age profile)
• Household propensity
• For more remote regional areas we look at employment as a
critical driver of change as well.
• Separate assumptions for each small area within the LGA
(min pop. 2,000).
Even lower growth areas rely on our forecasts, so they
can understand the future age and household
structure, what happens when growth finishes?
It is a LOCALLY BASED model – one town can have
completely different forecasts to its neighbour, even in
the same LGA.

27. So what do .id’s forecasts show for our 3 centres?
WONTHAGGI
• Large growth driven by attraction of families from suburban Melbourne.
• Most increases in family formation age groups, and young children.
• Leads to a flattening out of the current slightly older age structure. Median age will
decrease. Some increase in 85+ but only residual baby boomer growth. Most
population increase is among younger groups.
• Development on identified sites increasing from ~100 dwellings p.a. currently, to
about 140 dwellings p.a. by 2036.
• Review extending forecast to 2041 still to come.
• Population for the combined area (Wonthaggi is split in two on our forecast site) rises
from 9,100 in 2016 to 14,300 by 2036.
• Majority of growth is driven by in-migration. Natural increase is fairly small.

28. Wonthaggi

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1,000
0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 and
over
Wonthaggi combined with North Wonthaggi - Population change forecast 2016, 2026, 2036
2016 2026 2036

30. So what do our forecasts show for our 3 centres?
CASTERTON
• Current decline in population expected to bottom out – ageing continues, but there
needs to be some working age population to support it.
• Minimal growth, forecast to be 1,744 people by 2036.
• Continued drain of young people to the larger centres.
• Decline in middle aged, as the baby boomers age, increase in 75+, but only modest
compared to what is there now. 21% of population over 75 by 2036, but 45% over 60.
• Almost 50% in lone person households.
• Some older population moves away to larger centres seeking proximity to health care
facilities, so resultant population doesn’t age quite as much as you might think.

31. Casterton

33. So what do our forecasts show for our 3 centres?
WODONGA
• The City of Wodonga shows a large increase fueled by economic growth of the larger
region.
• Families seeking affordable housing in a major regional centre settle in new housing
areas of Wodonga to the south of the City.
• Places like White Box Rise and Baranduda have the most growth.
• Total population increase from 39,900 in 2016, to 57,300 in 2036.
• Albury-Wodonga combined should be around 125,000 by this time, with almost equal
populations.
• Age structure to remain relatively young. By 2036, the largest single group will be 0-4
year olds.
• But proportionally the largest increases are among older groups, with 85+ almost
doubling.

34. Wodonga

36. Overall forecast growth for Regional Victoria – tops down model
Forecast macro-level population change, Melbourne and Regional Victoria
(GCCSAs)
2016 2026 2036 Average
annual %
Melbourne 4,725,316 5,854,742 6,881,186 1.9%
Regional Victoria 1,453,933 1,662,932 1,868,302 1.3%
Source: .id SAFi forecasts, 2017

37. Population growth of major LGAs – forecast growth rates over time
Centre (LGA) 2016 (ERP) 2026 2036
Average
annual
Greater Geelong 239,529 296,416 352,618 2.0%
Ballarat 103,500 123,061 143,244 1.6%
Bendigo 112,267 134,592 158,280 1.7%
Shepparton 65,072 73,221 79,147 1.0%
Warrnambool 34,242 38,436 42,569 1.1%
Wodonga 40,100 49,139 57,242 1.8%
Mildura 54,658 59,797 64,512 0.8%
Horsham 19,884 21,746 23,307 0.8%
Latrobe Valley 74,622 82,858 91,505 1.0%
Source: .id SAFi forecasts, 2017

38. SUMMARY
• Regional Victoria’s population is growing, about 20k p.a., but it’s very uneven.
• Smaller, more remote areas are declining.
• Rural residential and larger centres increasing, with migration out of Melbourne and from NSW.
• .id’s population forecasts make sense of future change at a local level, using a “bottom up” approach, though we do
have some constraints at the top end.
Utilise the resources you have.
https://home.id.com.au/demographic-resources/
All our sites are publicly accessible.
Also check out information about our new housing.id tool centred on affordable housing issues:
https://home.id.com.au/services/demographic-information-tools/local-government-online-tools/housing-id/
If you don’t currently have a profile, forecast or economic profile for your local area, or would like to discuss training in
the tools you do have at your council, come and have a chat to me during the breaks.

39. Connect with us
Glenn Capuano
(03) 9417 2205
0408 318 544
glenn@id.com.au