Launch event for .id's latest release Western Australian Small Area Forecast information. Demographic trends and analysis, followed by the state's future outlook.

1. 2 March 2017 copyright .id – the population experts

2. Who are we?
.id are population experts (demographers, spatial analysts, forecasters, planners, economists)
.id has Australia’s largest team of population forecasters
We understand how cities are growing and changing
We quantify this knowledge into detailed population forecasts
Our clients use this knowledge to decide where and when to invest in infrastructure, services an
marketing
Over 2.5 million people access .id’s online demographic resources every year
We provide the evidence-base for 300 councils Australia-wide and numerous public and private
enterprises

3. Who we work with… 300 councils and …

4. Today’s presentation
Introducing SAFi
How do we build SAFi?
Population growth trends: Is it all bad news for WA?
Case study: Anticipating demand at the local level
Questions

5. Small Area Forecast information
Population forecasts for Western Australia

6. Introducing SAFi
SAFi is a state-wide, micro-geography population forecast
Provides unprecedented insight into the future of Australia’s population
Quantifies the demand for services over time from state-wide to local geographies
Combines both tops-down and bottoms-up modelling techniques for greater accuracy
Reflects development activity at a local area level
Regularly updated
Available for Victoria, NSW, ACT & WA.
Proven over 10 years – second iteration for Western Australia

7. SAFi is granular….
2,990 small areas
Population change by SAFi
area, 2017-2027, Perth
Source: id SAFi, 2017
-444 to 0
0 to 250
250 to 500
500 to 2,000
2,000 to 2,941

8. What SAFi can tell you?
For each micro-geography – 2,990 SA1-derived areas
Population
Dwellings and household types
Single year of age (0-90+ year olds)
Breakdown by male/female
Single year of forecast period – 2011 to 2041

9. dwellings
How do we build SAFi?
migration
by age
household
formation
How do we build SAFi?

10. Small areas
Building
approvals
Property
databases
Council
input
Land use
changes
Aerial
photography
household
formation
dwellings
migration
by age

11. Identify
dwellings
and timing

12. Construction &
development
timing
Source: Nearmap
Harrisdale and
Piara Waters
January 2010January 2011January 2012January 2013January 2014January 2015January 2016January 2017

13. Is it all doom and gloom after the
boom?

14. WA population forecasts

15. Key themes
Population growth trends
Ageing of the population
Changing housing consumption
Three Growth Markets
Sub-state population futures

16. Population growth trends

17. How has WA’s population grown?
Over 500,000 new residents in Western Australia in the last decade
Perth has been a magnet for overseas migrants (also Major Mining Projects) – 457 Visas
Historically WA gains population from other states, though in last two years has lost
population to Queensland and Victoria in particular
WA is ageing but at a lower rate than expected as overseas migration gains and more
births have supplemented the population under 40
Births continue to exceed deaths, but less natural increase over time, and more older
people

18. Average annual population growth, Major
States, Census periods, 1976-2016
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-6 2006-11 2011-16
Averageannualgrowthrate
Period
Australia NSW
Vic. Qld
SA WA

19. Annual population growth rates,
Major States, 2000-2016
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Annualgrowthrate
Year to June 30
Australia
NSW
Vic
SA
Qld
WA

20. Historical population growth rates, Western
Australia and Australia, 1836-2011
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
1836 1846 1856 1866 1876 1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016
Averageannualgrowthrate
Period
Western Australia
Australia

21. Private capital expenditure in mining vs
population growth, Western Australia, 1991-2017
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics; ABS, Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Billions$
Persons
Year endingJune 30
Change in ERP
Mining Investment

22. What has changed?
Decline in the mining industry impacting on migration to WA
Net overseas migration has declined after the highs of the boom period and the
share to WA has decreased as New South Wales has recovered and Victoria’s has
become more attractive, return of 457 visa holders
Unprecedented losses through internal migration in 2016 (-7,700) after averaging
+3,500 in the previous decade
Fertility rates have started to fall again, leading to a more stable number of births

23. Net overseas migration, Western Australia,
1976-2016
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
ShareofAustralia
Netoverseasmigration
Year endingJune 30
Net overseas Migration Share of Australia

24. Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics
Net interstate migration, Western Australia,
1976-2016
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Numberofpersons
Year ending June 30

25. Fertility rates and number of births
Western Australia, 1976-2016
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
TotalFertilityRate
Births
Year
Births Total Fertility Rate Assumed trend

26. Life expectancy, Western Australia,
1981-2015
Source: ABS, Life Tables, States, Territories and Australia, 2013-2015
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Lifeexpectancy
Year
Males Females

27. Ageing of the population

28. Population by five year age group, Western
Australia, 1971-2001
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Persons
Age group
1971 1981 1991 2001
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014

29. Population change by five year age group,
Western Australia, 1971-2001
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Persons
Age group

30. Population change by five year age group,
Western Australia, 2001-2016
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014; id SAFi, 2017
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Persons
Age group

31. Net overseas and interstate migration by age,
Western Australia, 2006-2011
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Persons
Age group
Overseas Migration Interstate Migration

32. Changing housing consumption

33. Average household size, Western Australia and
Major Regions, 1981-2011*
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014
2.00
2.20
2.40
2.60
2.80
3.00
3.20
3.40
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Averagehouseholdsize
Year endingJune 30
Perth
Western Australia
Regional WA
* Mandurah and Murray
counted in Regional WA

34. Population growth & building approvals,
Western Australia, 1991-2017*
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014
* 2017 based on
6 months of data
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Number
Year endingJune 30
Population growth
Building approvals

35. Growth in non-private dwellings,
Western Australia
Source: id SAFi, 2017 : unpublished data; Nearmap
Year Change
Region 2006 2011 2016 2006-2011 2011-16
Inner Northern Perth 7,584 8,683 10,152 1,099 1,469
Inner Southern Perth 6,434 6,490 6,981 56 490
Northern Perth 1,279 2,188 2,408 909 220
Peel 905 1,465 1,545 560 80
South East Perth 1,708 2,102 2,175 393 73
South West Perth 2,100 2,815 3,009 715 194
Swan Valley-Hills 3,335 3,560 4,244 225 684
Geraldton-Wheatbelt 2,493 4,465 4,933 1,972 468
Great Southern-Goldfields 3,894 5,472 5,956 1,578 484
Pilbara-Kimberley 3,956 19,306 21,419 15,350 2,113
South West WA 1,876 2,583 2,348 707 -235
Western Australia 35,563 59,129 65,169 23,566 6,040
Wheatstone construction camp
201120122013201420152016

36. Dwelling growth, established versus greenfield,
Perth, 1991-2036
Source: ABS, Census; id SAFi, 2017
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31 2031-36
Dwellinggain
Censusperiod
Infill / major sites
Greenfield

37. Three Growth Markets

38. Forecast population growth by age,
Western Australia, 2016-2036
Source: id SAFi, 2017
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+
Persons
Age group

39. Population by five year age group,
Western Australia, 2016-2036
Source: id SAFi, 2017
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Persons
Age group
2016 2026 2036

40. Age structure comparison, selected countries
and Western Australia, 2035
Source: id, SAFi, 2016, UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision: Medium Fertility Series
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Shareofpopulation
Age group
Western Australia
Australia
Canada
Japan

41. Local and regional changes

42. -1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Annualgrowthrate
Year endingJune 30
Inner City
Middle Suburbs
Outer Suburbs
Forecast population growth by typology area,
Western Australia, 1991-2041
Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth; id SAFi, 2017
historical forecast

43. Forecast population growth by typology area,
Western Australia, 1991-2041
Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth; id SAFi, 2017
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
Annualgrowthrate
Year endingJune 30
Regional Coastal
Regional Inland
Mining and remote
historical forecast

44. Forecast population growth by LGA,
Western Australia, 2016-2036
Source: id
SAFi, 2017
Average annual pop change
Greater than 3.0% gain
1.5% to 3.0%
0.5% to 1.5%
-0.5% to 0.5%
-1.5% to -0.5%
Greater than -1.5% loss
Murray
Serpentine-
Jarrahdale
Perth
Kwinana
Joondalup
Wanneroo
Swan
Rockingham
Armadale
Beverley
See
Inset
Broome
Port
Hedland
Karratha
Kalgoorlie-
Boulder
Geraldton
Gingin
Busselton

45. Forecast population growth,
selected LGAs, 1991-2041
Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth; id SAFi, 2017
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Persons
Year endingJune 30
Wanneroo (C)
Joondalup (C)
Swan (C)
Stirling (C)
historical forecast

46. Forecast population growth,
selected LGAs, 1991-2041
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Persons
Year endingJune 30
Rockingham (C)
Murray (S)
Cockburn (C)
Armadale (C)
Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth; id, SAFi, 2017
historical forecast

47. 0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Persons
Year endingJune 30
Perth (C)
South Perth (C)
Belmont (C)
Bayswater (C)
Forecast population growth,
selected LGAs, 1991-2041
Source: id SAFi, 2017
historical forecast

48. Forecast population
growth by SA2,
Greater Perth,
2016-2036
Source: .id SAFi, 2017
Average annual pop change
Greater than 3.0% gain
1.5% to 3.0%
0.5% to 1.5%
-0.5% to 0.5%
-1.5% to -0.5%
Greater than -1.5% loss
Tapping-
Ashby-
Sinagra
Bullsbrook
Gidgegannup
Yanchep
Wanneroo
Osborne Park
Industrial
Perth City
Victoria Park-
Laithlain-
Burswood
Dawesville
-Bouvard
Pinjarra
Mandurah
North
Mandurah
East
Rockingham
Lakes
Mundijong
Baldivis
Byford
North Coogee
Wungong-
Brookdale
Wattleup
Anketell-Wandi
Casuarina-
Wellard (East)

49. The last word

50. Conclusions
Population growth is expected to return to stronger levels over the next few years, with
iron ore prices recovering and gas investment likely to boom again, given global demand
However, Western Australia is more than mining - attractive in terms of its lifestyle,
environment and as a place of economic growth – migration will bounce back
Understanding macro trends is important, but for service delivery, the devil is in the detail
SAFi drills down to the local level and identifies / visualises major pockets of dwelling and
population growth and distinguishes
SAFi distinguishes between housing markets in migration and housing structure to aid in
age based service provision

51. Connect with us
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