The document discusses quantitative precipitation forecasting and flash floods. It describes the DWD operational forecasting system with nested global, European and German models. While forecasts generally capture large-scale patterns, they often underestimate precipitation amounts. Case studies show forecasts captured spatial structures but not always temporal sequences. Ensemble predictions provide probabilistic forecasts and uncertainty quantification. New models like ICON and improved COSMO-DE at 1km resolution are planned along with more ensemble applications. Near-real-time radar nowcasting up to 2 hours is also discussed. Communication with water authorities includes warnings, observations, tailored forecasts and education.
Hydroclimatology of Sariz Creek Watershed, Located In Seyhan Basin, And Simulation Of The Snowmelt Runoff Using Remote Sensing And Geographic Information Systems (Mountain Watershed Case Study). Presented by Ibrahim Gürer at the "Perth II: Global Change and the World's Mountains" conference in Perth, Scotland in September 2010.
Weather!: Meteorology and Meteorological Collections at the Royal Irish Acade...The Royal Irish Academy
Weather!: Meteorology and Meteorological Collections at the Royal Irish Academy and Met Éireann - Mairéad Treanor, Librarian, Met Éireann. For additional information including audio recordings to accompany this presentation please click here - http://www.ria.ie/library/exhibitions/lunchtime-lecture-series.aspx.
Disclaimer:
The Royal Irish Academy has prepared the content of this website responsibly and carefully, but disclaims all warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy of the information contained in any of the materials. The views expressed are the authors’ own and not those of the Royal Irish Academy.
Hydroclimatology of Sariz Creek Watershed, Located In Seyhan Basin, And Simulation Of The Snowmelt Runoff Using Remote Sensing And Geographic Information Systems (Mountain Watershed Case Study). Presented by Ibrahim Gürer at the "Perth II: Global Change and the World's Mountains" conference in Perth, Scotland in September 2010.
Weather!: Meteorology and Meteorological Collections at the Royal Irish Acade...The Royal Irish Academy
Weather!: Meteorology and Meteorological Collections at the Royal Irish Academy and Met Éireann - Mairéad Treanor, Librarian, Met Éireann. For additional information including audio recordings to accompany this presentation please click here - http://www.ria.ie/library/exhibitions/lunchtime-lecture-series.aspx.
Disclaimer:
The Royal Irish Academy has prepared the content of this website responsibly and carefully, but disclaims all warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy of the information contained in any of the materials. The views expressed are the authors’ own and not those of the Royal Irish Academy.
Remote sensing products in support of crop subsidy in MexicoCIMMYT
Remote sensing –Beyond images
Mexico 14-15 December 2013
The workshop was organized by CIMMYT Global Conservation Agriculture Program (GCAP) and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), the Mexican Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA), the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), CGIAR Research Program on Maize, the Cereal System Initiative for South Asia (CSISA) and the Sustainable Modernization of the Traditional Agriculture (MasAgro)
I encourage you to visit my blog (danherr.com/2012/01/22/ams-renewable-energy-jobs/) for the true transcript of my presentation and the recorded video.
Talk given by Daniel Herr on Job Opportunities for Meteorological Students in Clean Energy at the 2012 American Meteorological Society Conference in New Orleans, Louisiana on Saturday the 21st of January, 2012. **Please be aware that some of the fonts changed the look of the slides during upload**
This presentation created and addressed by Jesús Fernandez (University of Cantabria) in the intensive three day course from the BC3, Basque Centre for Climate Change and UPV/EHU (University of the Basque Country) on Climate Change in the Uda Ikastaroak Framework.
The objective of the BC3 Summer School is to offer an updated and multidisciplinary view of the ongoing trends in climate change research. The BC3 Summer School is organized in collaboration with the University of the Basque Country and is a high quality and excellent summer course gathering leading experts in the field and students from top universities and research centres worldwide.
Factors affecting monsoon precipitation in NepalSagar Parajuli
I did a brief study about the factors affecting monsoon precipitation in Nepal few months ago for a class project. I am sharing the slides as it is relevant to the recent flooding in north India and Nepal.
The Aerial Wetted Path of Geostationary Transmissionijceronline
International Journal of Computational Engineering Research (IJCER) is dedicated to protecting personal information and will make every reasonable effort to handle collected information appropriately. All information collected, as well as related requests, will be handled as carefully and efficiently as possible in accordance with IJCER standards for integrity and objectivity.
The Aerial Wetted Path of Geostationary Transmissionijceronline
International Journal of Computational Engineering Research (IJCER) is dedicated to protecting personal information and will make every reasonable effort to handle collected information appropriately. All information collected, as well as related requests, will be handled as carefully and efficiently as possible in accordance with IJCER standards for integrity and objectivity.
Remote sensing products in support of crop subsidy in MexicoCIMMYT
Remote sensing –Beyond images
Mexico 14-15 December 2013
The workshop was organized by CIMMYT Global Conservation Agriculture Program (GCAP) and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), the Mexican Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA), the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), CGIAR Research Program on Maize, the Cereal System Initiative for South Asia (CSISA) and the Sustainable Modernization of the Traditional Agriculture (MasAgro)
I encourage you to visit my blog (danherr.com/2012/01/22/ams-renewable-energy-jobs/) for the true transcript of my presentation and the recorded video.
Talk given by Daniel Herr on Job Opportunities for Meteorological Students in Clean Energy at the 2012 American Meteorological Society Conference in New Orleans, Louisiana on Saturday the 21st of January, 2012. **Please be aware that some of the fonts changed the look of the slides during upload**
This presentation created and addressed by Jesús Fernandez (University of Cantabria) in the intensive three day course from the BC3, Basque Centre for Climate Change and UPV/EHU (University of the Basque Country) on Climate Change in the Uda Ikastaroak Framework.
The objective of the BC3 Summer School is to offer an updated and multidisciplinary view of the ongoing trends in climate change research. The BC3 Summer School is organized in collaboration with the University of the Basque Country and is a high quality and excellent summer course gathering leading experts in the field and students from top universities and research centres worldwide.
Factors affecting monsoon precipitation in NepalSagar Parajuli
I did a brief study about the factors affecting monsoon precipitation in Nepal few months ago for a class project. I am sharing the slides as it is relevant to the recent flooding in north India and Nepal.
The Aerial Wetted Path of Geostationary Transmissionijceronline
International Journal of Computational Engineering Research (IJCER) is dedicated to protecting personal information and will make every reasonable effort to handle collected information appropriately. All information collected, as well as related requests, will be handled as carefully and efficiently as possible in accordance with IJCER standards for integrity and objectivity.
The Aerial Wetted Path of Geostationary Transmissionijceronline
International Journal of Computational Engineering Research (IJCER) is dedicated to protecting personal information and will make every reasonable effort to handle collected information appropriately. All information collected, as well as related requests, will be handled as carefully and efficiently as possible in accordance with IJCER standards for integrity and objectivity.
DSD-INT 2018 Latest developments in hydrology - hydrodynamic modelling using ...Deltares
Presentation by Arthur van Dam (Deltares) at the Delft3D - User Days (Day 1: Hydrology and hydrodynamics), during Delft Software Days - Edition 2018. Monday, 12 November 2018, Delft.
Existing RDP’s/FDP’s and projects
New RDP/FDPs: later this meeting
Workshops and publications
Various other activities
Meetings and liaisons with other WMO WG’s
On-line LAM EPS training for duty forecasters in cooperation with EUMETCAL (March 2012)
Activities aiming at promoting international exchange of observations relevant for mesoscale DA for research (e.g. Hymex) and operational purposes
Tigge-LAM: Start with LAM EPS archive at ECMWF in GEOWOW
Active in definition of EUMETNET/SRNWP EPS and Nowcasting programmes
Combined RDP/FDP on nowcasting/mesoscale deterministic and probabilistic modelling, as meteorological support of Sochi 2014 Winter Games.
Winter nowcasting/short-range forecasting in complex terrain
FDP component: observation network largely ready, forecaster training ongoing, not all models routinely available yet.
RDP component: focus on (sub-)km-scale modelling and ens forecasting. Common efforts??Follow-up after end of Games??
RosHydromet (together with MeteoSwiss and DWD), COSMO-RU, 1-km grid spacing, 3DVAR, km-scale data assimilation (radar, satellite)
Environment Canada, GEM, 2.5-km, 1-km, and 250-m grid spacing, analysis at 10-km (soon EnVar, now 4DVAR). Possible downscaling to 100-m grid spacing.
FMI, Harmonie, 2.5-km, 1.5-km, and 1-km grid spacing
NOAA, NMMB, 1-km grid spacing, initialized from GFS.
KMA, UM, 1-km grid spacing, analysis from global model (25 km), downscaling to several meters for venues
RosHydromet, will attempt to include an EPS, COSMO-RU7-EPS. Possibility of running a 2.2-km ensemble.
ARPA-SIMC, COSMO-S14-EPS, 7-km grid spacing.
HIRLAM, GLAMEPS 11-km and HarmonEPS 2.5-km.
ZAMG, Aladin-LAEF, 11-km grid spacing
NOAA, 7-member NMMB at 7-km grid spacing.
RosHydromet, integrated multi-model nowcasting
ZAMG, INCA
FMI, road weather model.
IRAM (Russia), nowcasting with MeteoExpert
Environment Canada, CARDS, INTW, ABOM
READINESS for FDP
Only about half of the centers provided input in real time during the latest practice period.
As anticipated, difficult for RosHydromet’s forecasters to use products from the foreign numerical prediction systems.
Time is running fast, the new products will have to come online very quickly.
Another test period in September and October… chance of training with new systems.
Team of scientists to advise in real time, but difficulties associated with language and with the forecasters tight time schedule
WGNE project endorsed by 2011 JSC: subgroup from WGNE, WG-MWFR, GCSS to jointly set up idealized grey zone experimentation
Run several LES systems at several 100m resolution as “truth”, make model simulations at stepwise progressively coarser resolutions throughout grey zone range, for different models. 1- and 3D- analysis of outcome.
Set up basic experimental framework and gain participants for initial “simple” extratropical case of cold air outbreak over sea, in 2011-2012. Study evolution of convection and BL for this case. Later extend this framework and
Monitoring Oceans - Chris Atherton - SRD23SURFevents
In recent years, the integration of fibre optic telecommunication cable monitoring technologies has not been fully achieved, hindering novel applications and research in Earth science. However, recent collaborations among national seismic and oceanographic infrastructures, National Research and Education Networks (NRENs), universities, research institutes, and industry in Europe have developed techniques to monitor the Earth and its systems using submarine optical telecommunication fibres. The SUBMERSE project aims to create a pilot research instrument that can continuously monitor existing submarine fibre optic cables, promoting sustainable development goals and leading to new scientific collaborations. This requires the collaboration of multiple stakeholders both nationally and internationally.
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Flash floods: Current practice and new developments in quantitative precipitation forecasting
1. Flash floods: Current practice and new
developments in quantitative precipitation
forecasting
Bruno Rudolf
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Dpt. of Hydrometeorology
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 1
2. Overview
1. DWD operational NWP system today
2. Limits of quantiative precipitation forecast
3. Three case studies (meteorol. flood conditions)
4. Ensemble prediction systems, future models
5. Services and summary
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 2
3. DWD operational NWP system
Three nested models: global, Europe, Germany
COSMO-DE: x = 2.8 km, 21 hours
8 runs per day
COSMO-EU: x = 7 km, 78 hours
4 runs per day
GME: x = 30 km, 7 days
2 runs per day
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 3
4. Limits of predictability
Sources of the limits:
chaotic features of the atmospheric circulation
non-steady behaviour of important processes
(e.g. condensation, convection and turbulence)
initial meteorological conditions are partly unknown
boundary conditions are partly unknown
the model equations are non linear on a high grade
limits of computer capacity insuffient spatial resolution
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 4
5. Limits of predictability
Convective cloud dynamics are not sufficiently
simulated by the operational NWP models
Internal structure and
dynamic processes
of a convective cloud
system
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 5
6. Case 1: Elbe flood August 2002
GME LM Observations
Total of 3 daily forecasts (11, 12, 13 Aug.)
The large scale patterns of the precipitation totals were well predicted.
• However, the high precipitation totals were considerably underestimated.
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 6
7. Case 2: Switzerland, Bavaria August 2005
GME LME LM Observations
24h-precip 22 to 23 August , 6:00h
(model run: 22 Aug, 00 UTC)
The spatial structure of daily precipitation was well predicted.
• However, the spatial-temporal sequence was not yet met suffiently.
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 7
8. Case 3: Local flash flood 2005
‘Millennium‘ precipitation 14:50 to 17:20 CEST RADOLAN
event in Dortmund, Combination of
26 July 2008 Dortmund:
radar-based and
200 mm in 2,5 h
raingauge-based
precipitation
The probability catching observations
extreme local rainfall by a
raingauge is less than 10%
even in a dense national
network.
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 8
9. Case 3: Local flash flood 2005
RADOLAN
COSMO-EU (7 km) COSMO-DE (2,8 km) Combination of radar
model forecasts of 24 hours precipitation and gauge observation
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 9
10. Ensemble predictions
Method:
parallel numerical simulation of the same case with modified
initial or boundary conditions or parametrisations within a given
error range
Ensemble predictions deliver:
• Probalistic forecasts
• Quantification of uncertainties
• Risk information
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 10
11. Ensemble predictions
COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble with
20 members
for Case 3 - Dortmund
26. July 2008
hourly precipitation totals
15:00 -16:00 UTC
COSMO-DE-EPS
is still in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 11
12. Ensemble predictions
COSMO LEPS
basis ECMWF-EPS
Case 2: Flood in
Switzerland, Bavaria
August 2005
Probability of exceeding
the thresholds
50 mm precipitation
Probability of 24h-
precipitation > 50 mm
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 12
13. The future forecast models
ICON
ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic General Circulation Model
The grid size of the global model
can be regionally improved.
A first operational version is expected
for autumn 2012
resolution: 20 km globaly
5 km for Europe
COSMO DE
is planned to be improved
to 1 km spatial resolution.
Ensemble applications are
planned for both models.
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 13
14. RADVOR-OP
Radar based precipitation nowcasting up to 2 hours
Method:
Identification and extrapolation of
precipitation areas (tracking) and
assessment of cell development
Characteristics:
Spatial resolution: 1 km
Temporal resolution: 5 min / 60 min
Updates every 5 minutes
(The cell processing method is
still in the development stage)
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 14
15. Communication
DWD warnings in the Web
Example: Case 3 (Dortmund)
The text warning 26 July, 10:00 CEST:
… quasi stationary convergency zone from
Emsland via Northrhine-Westfalia, Rhineland-
Palatinate and Saarland to the Black Forest with
Heavy rainfall of more than 40 mm per hour,
Hail and heavy wind gusts possible
Only slow drift of the thunderstorms with
direction north-west. DWD warn map published
26 July 2008, 16:48 CEST
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 15
16. Communication
DWD Hydrometeorological services
Close cooperation and joint projects of DWD
and the water management authorities
Provision of observational data and special
forecast products tailored to the need of the
water management authorities
Consultancy service for water management
Regular and special customer meetings
Participation in relevant committees
Capacity building: Education and training of the
users and of students
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 16
17. Summary
Deterministic models provide very good quantitative forecasts up to
two days lead time.
A 100% certainty will, however, never by possible, especially for the
point in time and space of single small scale precipitation and
thunderstorm events.
Observational data as radar products disseminated (near) realtime
provide disaster mangement with quantiative information in order to
early react and to reduce damage.
New technics:
Ensemble forecast provide probabilities.
Decision makers need to learn to use this information.
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 17
18. Additional material
1. Ensemble movie for Case 3 – Dortmund, 26. July 2008
hourly precipitation totals 15:00 -16:00 UTC
2. Weather chart for Case 3 – Dortmund, 26. July 2008
Convergency line as a cause of the extrem rainfall
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 18
19. COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble predictions with 20 members
No. 1
COSMO-DE-EPS
One hour precipitation
total 15:00 -16:00 UTC
Dortmund 26. July 2008
Method in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 19
20. COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble predictions with 20 members
No. 2
COSMO-DE-EPS
One hour precipitation
total 15:00 -16:00 UTC
Dortmund 26. July 2008
Method in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 20
21. COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble predictions with 20 members
No. 3
COSMO-DE-EPS
One hour precipitation
total 15:00 -16:00 UTC
Dortmund 26. July 2008
Method in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 21
22. COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble predictions with 20 members
No. 4
COSMO-DE-EPS
One hour precipitation
total 15:00 -16:00 UTC
Dortmund 26. July 2008
Method in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 22
23. COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble predictions with 20 members
No. 5
COSMO-DE-EPS
One hour precipitation
total 15:00 -16:00 UTC
Dortmund 26. July 2008
Method in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 23
24. COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble predictions with 20 members
No. 6
COSMO-DE-EPS
One hour precipitation
total 15:00 -16:00 UTC
Dortmund 26. July 2008
Method in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 24
25. COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble predictions with 20 members
No. 7
COSMO-DE-EPS
One hour precipitation
total 15:00 -16:00 UTC
Dortmund 26. July 2008
Method in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 25
26. COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble predictions with 20 members
No. 8
COSMO-DE-EPS
One hour precipitation
total 15:00 -16:00 UTC
Dortmund 26. July 2008
Method in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 26
27. COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble predictions with 20 members
No. 9
COSMO-DE-EPS
One hour precipitation
total 15:00 -16:00 UTC
Dortmund 26. July 2008
Method in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 27
28. COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble predictions with 20 members
No. 10
COSMO-DE-EPS
One hour precipitation
total 15:00 -16:00 UTC
Dortmund 26. July 2008
Method in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 28
29. COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble predictions with 20 members
No. 11
COSMO-DE-EPS
One hour precipitation
total 15:00 -16:00 UTC
Dortmund 26. July 2008
Method in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 29
30. COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble predictions with 20 members
No. 12
COSMO-DE-EPS
One hour precipitation
total 15:00 -16:00 UTC
Dortmund 26. July 2008
Method in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 30
31. COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble predictions with 20 members
No. 13
COSMO-DE-EPS
One hour precipitation
total 15:00 -16:00 UTC
Dortmund 26. July 2008
Method in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 31
32. COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble predictions with 20 members
No. 14
COSMO-DE-EPS
One hour precipitation
total 15:00 -16:00 UTC
Dortmund 26. July 2008
Method in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 32
33. COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble predictions with 20 members
No. 15
COSMO-DE-EPS
One hour precipitation
total 15:00 -16:00 UTC
Dortmund 26. July 2008
Method in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 33
34. COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble predictions with 20 members
No. 16
COSMO-DE-EPS
One hour precipitation
total 15:00 -16:00 UTC
Dortmund 26. July 2008
Method in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 34
35. COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble predictions with 20 members
No. 17
COSMO-DE-EPS
One hour precipitation
total 15:00 -16:00 UTC
Dortmund 26. July 2008
Method in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 35
36. COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble predictions with 20 members
No. 18
COSMO-DE-EPS
One hour precipitation
total 15:00 -16:00 UTC
Dortmund 26. July 2008
Method in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 36
37. COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble predictions with 20 members
No. 19
COSMO-DE-EPS
One hour precipitation
total 15:00 -16:00 UTC
Dortmund 26. July 2008
Method in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 37
38. COSMO-DE-EPS
ensemble predictions with 20 members
No. 20
COSMO-DE-EPS
One hour precipitation
total 15:00 -16:00 UTC
Dortmund 26. July 2008
Method in development
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 38
39. Case 3: Local flash flood 2005
DWD Weather chart of 26. July 2008 00 UTC (02 MESZ)
DWD -Dpt of Hydrometeorology, B. Rudolf – IGRC Davos 2010 39
Editor's Notes
Auch RADOLAN, die Aneichung quantitativer Radarbeobachtungen an die Niederschlagsdaten von Stationsmessnetzen, wurde in Zusammenarbeit mit den für den Hochwasserschutz zuständigen Landesbehörden entwickelt. Bei diesem Verfahren liefern das Radarkomposit (16 Geräte in Deutschland) die hoch auflösenden zeitlichen und räumlichen Strukturen und die Niederschlagsmessdaten die quantitative Genauigkeit. Das RADOLAN-Verfahren wird in Echtzeit angewendet. Alle erforderlichen Daten werden umgehend nach Messung elektronisch an die Zentrale des DWD gesandt und dort ausgewertet. Die angeeichten Produkte wie das oben gezeigte stehen den Hochwasserschutzzentralen innerhalb von 20 Minuten in digitaler Form zur Verfügung. Warndienste erhalten Vorprodukte bereits innerhalb von wenigen Minuten. Neben den DWD-Messdaten werden zur Verdichtung des Gesamtnetzes auch die Daten aus den Landesmessnetzen von Bayern, Baden-Württemberg und Rheinland-Pfalz eingebunden. Vorangegangen war auch eine Abstimmung der Messnetzkonfigurationen des DWD und dieser Länder. Zur besseren quantitativen Erfassung der Niederschlagshöhe ist die Einbeziehung der Daten weiterer Länder geplant. Darüber hinaus sollen RADOLAN entsprechende Produkte für Zentraleuropa in internationaler Zusammenarbeit entwickelt werden.
The radar-based nowcasting procedure is based on pattern recognition in subsequent radar images and (partly) MSG. 5-min qualitative-quantitative radar images are extrapolated in 5-min steps up to max. 2 hours lead time and summed-up to hourly sums for the 2 forecast hours. Hourly sums are quantified under the presupposition of a constant frequency distribution since the latest adjustment procedure. (Method: Mapping of Weibull type of precipitation frequency distributions in forecast and latest adjusted product.) Verification of selected flood cases underway. Ongoing work: Development of methods to derive additional estimates on convective potential and phase of precipitation