The document discusses how climate change is intensifying the global water cycle. It notes that glaciers and alpine glaciers are melting, temperatures and sea levels are rising, and precipitation patterns are changing. There is evidence that heavy precipitation events have increased in the US, resulting in more frequent and severe flooding in some areas. Climate models project continued changes, such as further increases in heavy precipitation and drought in some regions, but uncertainties remain regarding regional predictions. Satellite observations are providing valuable new insights into global water patterns.

1. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Ensuring Water in a Changing WorldEnsuring WorldAssociation of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO) webinar series on the human health effects of climate change. April 29th, 2008Climate Change & The Global Water Cycle: Recent Regional Experiences Soroosh Sorooshian Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote SensingUniversity of California Irvine

2. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
University of California Irvine (UCI) and Arizona (UA)

3. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
and many more …
CHRS & Affiliates: A truly International Team

4. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
A Unique Planet: Blue, Green and alive!

5. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Earth's atmosphere: 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and 1% other gasesAtmosphere of Earth vs. Mars and Venus

6. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Distribution of Freshwater

7. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Distribution of Fresh Water Use90.833.4% 17.1% 49.5% 4607.0% 6.0% 87.0% 36.4718.6% 22.0% 59.4% 11760.0% 17.0% 23.0% 467.3445.2% 13.1% 41.7% 3804.0%3.0% 93.0%AgricultureIndustryDomesticFresh Water Use(109Cubic Meters)
Water Source
Water UseUSAChinaIndiaRussia
Japan
Brazil92% 6% 2% 70.3Iran

8. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Increasing Population: Number of Mega Cities
Global Urban population 1970: ~37%
2010: ~53% Projected Global Population: 8.3 Billion by 2025

9. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
The Big Question as to Whether Our Planet Is Warming Up and The Hydrologic Cycle is Intensifying, has been addressed by The Recent IPCC Report

10. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Evidence for reality of climate change: Glaciers MeltingEvidence Melting19092000Muir Glacier, Alaska1900 2003Alpine glacier, Austria1900 AustriaToboggan Glacier Alaska
Provided By: Kevin Trenberth

11. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Source: NASA GISS 2007
Global Temperature Anomalies: 2007Tied (with 1998) for the second warmest year (2005 Warmest)

12. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Global Warming And Hydrologic Cycle ConnectionHeatingTemperatureEvaporationWater Holding CapacityAtmospheric Moisture
Source: Gi-Hyeon Park Green House EffectConsequence: Intensification of Hydrologic cycle

13. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Observed changes: Heavy Precipitation
ƒFrom 1908-2002:
ƒTotal annual precipitation across the contiguous U.S. increased 7%
ƒHeavy daily Precipitation events have increased by 20%
ƒRainfall associated with warmer climates are more due to extreme events compared to colder climates Facts from Observations100Confidence Index
Source: Tom Karl NCDC-NOAA 2007

14. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Record Floods: Among the worst Natural Disasters

15. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Record Floods: Among the worst Natural Disasters

16. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Los Angeles (1955)

17. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
0200400600800100012001400Jun-48Jun-52Jun-56Jun-60Jun-64Jun-68Jun-72Jun-76Jun-80Jun-84Jun-88Jun-92Jun-96Jun-00 Event total precipitation (mm) Event duration (days) 246081012020040060080010001200Total precipitation (mm)and duration (days)of extreme events in Texas Normal annual precipitation inTexas is 650~750mmSource: J. Nielsen-Gammon et al., 2005Extreme Precipitation events: Texas, USA (1948-2001)

18. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
American River Runoff Annual Maximum 1-Day Flow 02550751001251501752002252501900190519101915192019251930193519401945195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005Water Year 1,000 cfs Unimpaired Runoff at Fair Oaks Changes in Peak FlowsAmerican River, California
Red Line = Construction of Folsom DamFrom: J. Andrew DWR-DFM

19. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Observed changes: Drought Reconstruction
•Within the past millennium there have been severe droughts in both the western U.S. and Midwest that have lasted for multiple decades (50 years). Drought as documented in the paleoclimaticrecord? 1005Confidence IndexSource: Tom Karl NCDC-NOAA 2007

20. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
16th century “megadrought” 1930’s dustbowl>100 year “megadroughts”
2000-year Climate history of central U.S. DustBowl2000 yrs. agoTodayThe US Breadbasket: The Mid-West
Source: Overpeck2004

21. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Ensuring Water in a Changing WorldEnsuring WorldChallenge of predicting the future Climate: While we Attempt to Improve Our Scientific Understanding of the Climate System, We Face Major Issues With Uncertainties in Information We Can Provide to “Users” Challenge

22. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Some Results at the Seasonal to Inter-annual and Longer time Scales:
Climate Predictions into the Future!

23. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Climate model Predictions about the future? Æglobally
DJF Precipitation Changes
CM2 -Old model
CM3 -Updated model
Significant differences
in regional outcomes! Source: Hadley Center (Climate Change Projections)

24. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Model annual precipitation trends over 21stcentury Hadley Center: Southwest dries outWhat to tell water managers? Canadian Center: Southwest extremely wetSource: US National Assessment Report, 2000
What do climate models tell us about the future?

25. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Canadian Prairie drought 1999-2005500 km2001/02Source: Ronald Stewart

26. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
SEASONAL PREDICTIONS: Summer of 2005 -Canada
PREDICTION
OBSERVATIONAboveNormalBelowNormal
Source: Ronald Stewart

27. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
(flooding at the end of the drought) St. Jean de Baptiste, ManitobaJuly 2005Source: Ronald Stewart

28. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Recent Extreme Conditions in the U.S. Southwest
Lake Powell, Colorado River, USANormal YearsSever Multi-year Drought through 2004
Source: J. Kane SRP 2004

29. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Eye-Catching Article in Science Magazine

30. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Observed changes: Drought
•U.S. droughts show
pronounced multi-year
to multi-decadal
variability, but no
convincing evidence
for long-term trends
toward more or
fewer events. Drought activity during the 20thand early 21stCentury1005Confidence Index
Based on Palmer Drought Index
Moderate to Extreme Drought
Source: Tom Karl NCDC-NOAA 2007

31. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Practices in Factoring in Climate and Extreme Events in Water Resources: Engineering Approach: Control, Store, Use & Deliver for Multi-Purposes

32. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Hoover DamGlen Canyon DamCentral Arizona Project Aqueduct
A Century of Water Resources Development: Engineering success!

33. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Time of Construction = 1935
Total Storage Capacity = 38.6 BCM
Annual Inflow = 15.4 BCM
Drainage Area = 432,500 Km2
Time to fill =2.5 Years
Power Generation = 2,074 MW
Time of Construction = 1963
Total Storage Capacity = 33.3 BCM
Annual Inflow = 15.4 BCM
Drainage Area = 280,570 Km2
Time to fill = 2.24 Years
Power Generation = 1,356 MWHoover DamGlen Canyon Dam
Built-In Resiliency in water resources Systems!

34. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Colorado Basin400% California Region100% Storage Capacity/Streamflow Relationship B. Imam, CHRS-UC Irvine

35. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
“News From Space” Satellite ObservationsSatellite Observations

36. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
SatelliteHuman Eye Reflectance( % ) Visible Range804000.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 Wavelength (μm) 40200Bare SoilHealthyVegetation40200StressedVegetation40200FreshSnowSeaWater 543210 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Remote Sensing Systems (Spectral Signal)

37. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Current Meteorological and Earth Observing Satellites in Space

38. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Precipitation Observations: Which to trust??
Sources: R. Fulton, D.-J. Seo. and J. Breidenbach, AMS Short-Course on QPE/QPF, 2002

39. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Satellite Products: Promising future

40. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
A Key Requirement! Measurement of Rainfall is a Major Challenge

41. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Temporal Scale Importance:Daily Precip. at 2 stations020401611162126020401611162126Frequency 6.7% Intensity 37.5 mmFrequency 67% Intensity 3.75 mmMonthlyAmount 75 mmAmount 75 mmlocalfloodssoil moisture replenishedvirtually no runoffABSource: K. Trenberth, NCARSource: NCAR

42. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Water Quality Concerns

43. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Available Resources

44. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Satellite Products: Promising future

45. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Satellite Products: Promising future

46. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Global Flood Archive for 2007http://www.dartmouth.edu/~floods/

47. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
U.S. Drought Monitor ( Multi Agency Effort)

48. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
U.S. Drought Outlook ( Multi Agency Effort)

49. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
AHPS Flood Forecast system (U.S.A)

50. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Monitoring of Global Fires from Space

51. Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine
Thank You For ListeningThank ListeningThe Rio Grande River, NM Photo: J. Sorooshian 2005