This document discusses leveraging big data techniques to identify the release location of a hazardous substance into the atmosphere. It summarizes previous contamination incidents like Chernobyl and Fukushima and the challenges of inverse modeling. The proposed approach uses a large database of pre-computed dispersion simulations and historical weather data managed by big data tools. Matching current conditions to similar pre-computed cases could solve the release location faster than traditional computationally intensive inverse modeling. Key open issues to explore are defining "similar enough" weather and ensuring manageable database volumes for accurate matching.

1. SECOND SC5 PILOT
IDENTIFYING THE
RELEASE LOCATIONRELEASE LOCATION
OF A SUBSTANCE
NCSR Demokritos20 December 2016

2. ContentContent
 Environment contamination
 The Chernobyl plumey p
 The Algeciras plume
 Th F k hi l The Fukushima plume
 Problem definition
 Leveraging BDE
 Issues to be explored Issues to be explored
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3. Environment contaminationEnvironment contamination
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4. DepositionDeposition
Wet deposition
Dry deposition
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5. FactorsFactors
 Climate and weather are important factors
affecting accident consequences
 In the absence of rain dry deposition takes place
o radioactive particles settle under the influence ofo radioactive particles settle under the influence of
gravity, wind and turbulence
 Snow and rain result Snow and rain result
in wet deposition
SSource:
http://www.irsn.fr/EN/publications/thematic/fukushima/
Documents/IRSN_Fukushima-Environment-
consequences_28022012.pdf

6. The Chernobyl plumeThe Chernobyl plume
 At 01:23 on 26/4/1986 a severe accident took
place at Chernobyl-4 nuclear power plant
 Atmospheric dispersion models were applied to the
137Cs atmospheric releasep
o The meteorological conditions in Europe following the
accident were reconstructedacc de we e eco s uc ed
Source: http://www.irsn.fr/EN/publications/thematic-safety/chernobyl/Pages/The-Chernobyl-Plume.aspx
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7. Source: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news-room/20140514STO47018/forsmark-how-sweden-alerted-the-world-about-the-danger-of-chernobyl-disaster
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8. Source: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news-room/20140514STO47018/forsmark-how-sweden-alerted-the-world-about-the-danger-of-chernobyl-disaster
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9. The Algeciras plumeThe Algeciras plume
HYSPLIT simulation of 137Cs dispersion between 0 and 500m altitude every 3 hours over a 3-day period.
Source: http://www-dase.cea.fr/public/dossiers_thematiques/modelisation_et_simulation_du_transport_atmospherique/description_en.html
p y y p
It is presumed that the source (red dot) emits 100 Bq between 00:00 and 03:00 on May 30, 1998.
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10. The Fukushima plumeThe Fukushima plume
 At 14:46 on 11/3/2011 the Tohoku-Chihou-
Taiheiyo-Oki earthquake rocked Fukushima Daiichi
nuclear power station
 An hour later a tsunami invaded the site
 Hydrogen explosions
E l ti di th F k hi D ii hi Explanations regarding the Fukushima Daiichi
accident consequences on the environment appear
h // i f /EN/ bli i / h iat: http://www.irsn.fr/EN/publications/thematic-
safety/fukushima/Pages/2-fukushima-
understanding-environment.aspx
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11. Issue at handIssue at hand
 Release of a hazardous substance in the
atmosphere
 Support the decision making process for
countermeasure takingg
 Estimation of consequences on:
h manso humans
o environment
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12. Problem statementProblem statement
 Identify the release location of a substance
 Available information:
o Measurements of the substance level at certain
locations
o Current weather conditions
o Past weather conditionso Past weather conditions
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13. Current approachesCurrent approaches
 Computational approach:
o work backwards – inverse modelling – from the current
atmospheric conditions to estimate source location
 Long computation times required, especially forg p q , p y
complex cases
o complicated topographyo complicated topography
o weather conditions
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14. Leveraging BDELeveraging BDE
 Use BDE to manage:
o A large number of pre-computed dispersion data
o Historical atmospheric conditions
 In this manner: In this manner:
o The computationally hardest part is pre-computed
M t hi t t h i diti t tho Matching current atmospheric conditions to the pre-
computed cases formulates a smaller problem
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15. The computational essenceThe computational essence
 Match current weather against a database of
historical atmospheric conditions by:
o Building upon the NetCDF data management and
searching tools created during the first SC5 pilot
o Encoding weather patterns onto maps
 Weather similarity  map/image similarity
o Developing operators that search consecutive hourly
slices for similar weather
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16. Open issuesOpen issues
 Open issues to be investigated during the pilot
implementation:
o What exactly does “similar enough weather” mean for
this pilot purposes?
o What volumes need to be pre-computed to always
have in the database “similar enough weather”?
o Are these volumes manageable and searchable?
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17. Questions?Questions?
 BigDataEurope Web site:
https://www.big-data-europe.eu
 Thank you for your attention!
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