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Making Emissions Inventories Comparable and Useful | Sebastian Carney
- 1. Making Emissions Inventories Comparable and Useful Dr. Sebastian Carney Carbon Captured Ltd
- 2. Agenda • Options • PESTLE • MoSCoW • Past Inventories • Focus • Let’s Look at Scotland • Energy plans • Scrumcasting
- 3. Options • Do nothing • Estimate • Use bottom up data
- 4. PESTLE • Political – Be first • Economic – Potential for savings • Social – Local requirements • Technological – Potential for implementation • Legislative – Requirement to produce • Environmental – Measure progress
- 5. MoSCoW • Must haves – An ordered list of what is in and what is out – The emissions factors used – The data sources – Recognition of risks – Descriptive statistics – The Activity data
- 6. MoSCoW • Should haves – Consistent Reporting Format – How the data sources have been measured – Uncertainty of emissions factors and data sources – Executive summaries – Different representations for different audiences. – Analysis – Energy Potential Data – Empowerment – internalize it, it really isn’t too difficult.
- 7. MoSCoW • Could haves – Energy Potential Data – Driver data – age of housing stock – Economic & demographic statistics – Mapping of Emissions Sources – Comparisons with other areas – Identification for the reasons for the size of emissions – eg Athens vs Oslo
- 8. MoSCoW • Won’t have – Solutions – Measurements – rather they are estimations – Perfect comparability
- 9. Past Inventories 60,000.00 50,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 20,000.00 10,000.00 0.00 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1
- 10. Electricity Emissions Factors 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Athens Brussels Frankfurt Hamburg Helsinki Ljubljana Madrid Napoli Oslo Rotterdam Stockholm Paris Porto Stuttgart Turin Veneto Electricity Emissions Factor Electricity Emissions Factor
- 11. Focus • Think about – where we are going – rather than where we have been • On what we know • What changes we can implement • What does a 80% reduction refer to? – Total emissions – 2050 is an indicator rather than a scientific baseline
- 12. Let’s look at Scotland • Emissions inventory • Energy potential • Independence – IPCC Reporting Standards – Impact on rest of UK
- 13. Scotland’s Energy Potential • 25% of Europe’s tidal potential • 10% of Europe’s wave potential • 25% of Europe’s off shore wind potential
- 14. Energy Plans • Avoid basic errors – Consumption and Demand – Peak Demand • Electrification of heat and transport – Upkeep/maintenance, life span – Future value of money (eg payback periods) – Wider systems context – network capability – Risk attitude of intermittency – Human Capital – Robbing ‘Peter to pay Paul’ – Include the system outside of the region – But remember a transition can not be managed!
- 16. UK Demand Brattle Model, GB Electricity Demand – realising the resource, Brattle Group, 2012
- 17. Retrofitting Example • 99% Reduction by 2050, mostly by 2040 – Mostly through efficiency – So let’s say every home to 80% (heat energy) • 6 ‘Professional Retrofitters’ – Builders • 6 weeks • 1 project manager per ten homes • 10 days redecorating • 1 day removal and reinstall • +20% tolerance for illness/slippage • 25 days holiday a year • 1 million people
- 18. Scrumcasting - GRIP • Similar to backcasting • Product focused – Energy Scenario • Bring together users and suppliers • A referee • Identify interfaces • Have a focus – end goal • Identify roles, responsibilities, potentials, errors, obstacles, tolerances, scales, timeframes.
- 20. A Selection of Scenarios
- 21. A Selection of Scenarios
- 22. To Summarise • Establish what you can do – focus on end goals • Be mindful of potential future applications (PESTLE) • Engage stakeholders in development • Present data consistently (& uncertainty) • Be clear in energy plans – finance, systems • Use to build capacity • Scrumcast!
- 23. Questions Contact: sebastian.carney@carboncaptured.com Phone: 0161-225-1028 / 07830-121407