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Scottish Carbon Capture & Storage
Murchison House, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3LA
Telephone +44 (0)131 650 0270 www.sccs.org.uk
Scotland centred energy 2030
Building a vision for Scotland’s energy future
12 March 2014, ECCI
Stuart HASZELDINE
University of Edinburgh
2
Storyline
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
Context -42% carbon by 2020 - 60% by 2030
- 90% carbon by 2050 (ref 1990 base)
• All regions make extensive use of their
regional renewables potential
• Electricity is exchanged through the country
• Pumped storage is exploited
• Electricity import – minimal
• Electricity export - encouraged
3
Climate and unburnable carbon
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014
“Cumulative total emissions of
CO2 and global mean surface
temperature response are
approximately linearly related”
IPCC 2013 AR5 WG1
now
Emission reduction
2050 limit for 2 C
50% confidence
No action
2100 limit
for > 8 C
50%
confidence
Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
TOTAL emissions of fossil carbon have to be contained
Not just the rate of emission : CCS, RES, Efficiency buy time
Industry needs CCS. Unburnable carbon V hydrocarbon production
4Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
http://www.sccs.org.uk/news/2013/IndustrialCO
nd.pdf
NOT just electricity
Energy USE
Energy EXTRACTED and EXPORTED
Scotland is a
hydrocarbon use
economy
10 Mt CO2 “saved by Res
electricity” 2012 (simple calc. )
10
5
Scotland extracts hydrocarbons
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
NOT just electricity
Energy USE
Energy EXTRACTED and EXPORTED
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2006/01/19092748/8
Energy Study
2006 TWhr
Wind 2012
15 TWhr
37 TWhr total
Electricity 33 TWhr/yr 2006
6
Scotland energy use = electric + heat
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/20
06/01/19092748/8
TOTAL energy use = electric + heat + transport + industry + …. 166 TWHr / yr 2006
7
Vision : energy demand
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
Other carbon emissions
Heat
2014 demand 2030 demand
Heat
Power Power
Industry
Travel
Industry
Land
20%
Planes
&
ships
Renewables and CCS
CCS ONLY
Travel
Efficiency, gas, electric
8
Vision : energy supply 2030
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
2030
Wind – onshore 20 TW hr
(+ 20 TWhr offshore)
(Tide 2 TWhr /yr)
(Wave 1 TWhr / yr)
Gas + (coal ?)
biomass + CCS
Petrochemical + CCS
Insulation & efficiency
Traded sector ? Imports
W
W
WW
Iceland ?
England ?
Europe ?
Norway ?
Denmark ?
Scotland
CCS
CCS
CCS
Demand 2006 165
TW hr / yr
Demand 2009 143
TWhr /yr
Demand 2030
150 – 200 TW hr/yr
F
F
F
I
FF
Oil & gas
CO2-EOR
CO2
Price power, heat
Build rates
Transmission charges
W
W
Close coal & gas genrn ?
Close North Sea extract ?
Industry + CCS ?
Wind + Tide
Forestry
Industry
CCS on fossil
9
Discussion
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
Electricity and All-Energy supply
In a world of rapid Climate change
Slow industry and finance change
and unburnable carbon
10Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
11
Discussion
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
Electricity and All-Energy supply
In a world of rapid Climate change
Slow industry and finance change
and unburnable carbon
s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
BP Energy Outlook 2014
12
= DO
Sustainable
Developing
economies
BRIC, MINT
“ us “
Carbon not planning to decrease
13
Scotland is a hydrocarbon economy
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
NOT just electricity
Energy USE
Energy produced and EXPORTED
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2006/01/19092748/8
Energy Study
2006 TWhr
Wind 2012
15 TWhr
37 TWhr total
Electricity 33 TWhr/yr 2006
s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk 14
www.sccs.org
90% CO2 reduction on site
75% along whole chain
What does
CCS look like ?
expensive
uncertain
FINANCE
s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014 15
Depth 1 - 4 km
Impermeable SEAL
Overlies
Porous RESERVOIR
CO2 storage is a
long way down
16
STATE of CCS – REAL new projects
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014
Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
Zero Emission Power
(Europe trade organisation)
12 full sized
projects by 2012
EEPR 1 Billion
x 6 projects
IEA International
Energy Agency
100 projects by 2020
Power AND Industry
= Two (0)
by 2020
= ZERO (1)
= ONE (3)
UK (small, EU edge)
2005, 2007, 2012
CO2 inject 2019£ 1 Bn Prize
17
Does UK Govt WANT CCS ??
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
“low cost”
= high nuclear
2050 Calculator Carbon and energy : default example
Ll
llll
n
“carbon and bio ”
= high fossil and
carbon capture
18
Scottish fossil energy extraction
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
Conventional Oil + gas 2014 - 2050
CO2 –EOR 2020 – 2035
Shale oil 2020 – 2035
Shale gas 2020 – 2060
Underground coal gas 2020 - 2200
19
Making it happen
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
PROBLEM
Tax N Sea ≠ Spend on CCS
SOLUTION
• Divert oil tax to green energy
• Extraction tax, to incentivise
storage of carbon
Oil, coal,
shale
tax
“roads, hospitals
and schools”
Green
clean
2 x CCS
project
now
future ?
20
Avoiding a carbon bubble
1 tonne CO2 out = 1 tonne CO2 in
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
More fossil carbon extraction, faster ≠ Mitigation later ….
21
INDUSTRY IN SCOTLAND
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
• 2000 – 4,000 DIRECT jobs in
Scottish industry, 250,000 offshore
10,000 in Renewables
• Industry process emissions can not
be displaced – must be captured
• Should h/c resource be left in the
ground ? Very unlikely to change an
EU / UK oil/gas price
• Scotland has lots of oil. And coal,
shale oil, shale gas
• Developing CCS requires synergy –
to build pipes and storage
22
INDUSTRY IN SCOTLAND
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
Keeping C intensive industry
– needs CO2 cleanup
23
Creating a low carbon industry zone
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
24
Renewables are good
But not large enough – heroic effort possible
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
25
All electricity – by fuel
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
26
Summary
Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
• Electricity is a small part of energy. Include HEAT, INDUSTRY
• Is carbon, or money more dominant ?
• Security of supply – renewables PLUS storage, or INFILL
• Economics of transmission charging – Scotland centric
• Mixed generation – windpower on best sites
- balancing carbon extraction  Trees for fuel
- baseload flexible generation – with CCS
-
• Aim beyond 2030 – to 2050, …… 3,100 AD

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Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine

  • 1. Scottish Carbon Capture & Storage Murchison House, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3LA Telephone +44 (0)131 650 0270 www.sccs.org.uk Scotland centred energy 2030 Building a vision for Scotland’s energy future 12 March 2014, ECCI Stuart HASZELDINE University of Edinburgh
  • 2. 2 Storyline Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Context -42% carbon by 2020 - 60% by 2030 - 90% carbon by 2050 (ref 1990 base) • All regions make extensive use of their regional renewables potential • Electricity is exchanged through the country • Pumped storage is exploited • Electricity import – minimal • Electricity export - encouraged
  • 3. 3 Climate and unburnable carbon Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014 “Cumulative total emissions of CO2 and global mean surface temperature response are approximately linearly related” IPCC 2013 AR5 WG1 now Emission reduction 2050 limit for 2 C 50% confidence No action 2100 limit for > 8 C 50% confidence Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk TOTAL emissions of fossil carbon have to be contained Not just the rate of emission : CCS, RES, Efficiency buy time Industry needs CCS. Unburnable carbon V hydrocarbon production
  • 4. 4Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk http://www.sccs.org.uk/news/2013/IndustrialCO nd.pdf NOT just electricity Energy USE Energy EXTRACTED and EXPORTED Scotland is a hydrocarbon use economy 10 Mt CO2 “saved by Res electricity” 2012 (simple calc. ) 10
  • 5. 5 Scotland extracts hydrocarbons Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk NOT just electricity Energy USE Energy EXTRACTED and EXPORTED http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2006/01/19092748/8 Energy Study 2006 TWhr Wind 2012 15 TWhr 37 TWhr total Electricity 33 TWhr/yr 2006
  • 6. 6 Scotland energy use = electric + heat Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/20 06/01/19092748/8 TOTAL energy use = electric + heat + transport + industry + …. 166 TWHr / yr 2006
  • 7. 7 Vision : energy demand Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Other carbon emissions Heat 2014 demand 2030 demand Heat Power Power Industry Travel Industry Land 20% Planes & ships Renewables and CCS CCS ONLY Travel Efficiency, gas, electric
  • 8. 8 Vision : energy supply 2030 Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk 2030 Wind – onshore 20 TW hr (+ 20 TWhr offshore) (Tide 2 TWhr /yr) (Wave 1 TWhr / yr) Gas + (coal ?) biomass + CCS Petrochemical + CCS Insulation & efficiency Traded sector ? Imports W W WW Iceland ? England ? Europe ? Norway ? Denmark ? Scotland CCS CCS CCS Demand 2006 165 TW hr / yr Demand 2009 143 TWhr /yr Demand 2030 150 – 200 TW hr/yr F F F I FF Oil & gas CO2-EOR CO2 Price power, heat Build rates Transmission charges W W Close coal & gas genrn ? Close North Sea extract ? Industry + CCS ? Wind + Tide Forestry Industry CCS on fossil
  • 9. 9 Discussion Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Electricity and All-Energy supply In a world of rapid Climate change Slow industry and finance change and unburnable carbon
  • 10. 10Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
  • 11. 11 Discussion Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Electricity and All-Energy supply In a world of rapid Climate change Slow industry and finance change and unburnable carbon
  • 12. s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk BP Energy Outlook 2014 12 = DO Sustainable Developing economies BRIC, MINT “ us “ Carbon not planning to decrease
  • 13. 13 Scotland is a hydrocarbon economy Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk NOT just electricity Energy USE Energy produced and EXPORTED http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2006/01/19092748/8 Energy Study 2006 TWhr Wind 2012 15 TWhr 37 TWhr total Electricity 33 TWhr/yr 2006
  • 14. s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk 14 www.sccs.org 90% CO2 reduction on site 75% along whole chain What does CCS look like ? expensive uncertain FINANCE
  • 15. s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014 15 Depth 1 - 4 km Impermeable SEAL Overlies Porous RESERVOIR CO2 storage is a long way down
  • 16. 16 STATE of CCS – REAL new projects Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014 Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Zero Emission Power (Europe trade organisation) 12 full sized projects by 2012 EEPR 1 Billion x 6 projects IEA International Energy Agency 100 projects by 2020 Power AND Industry = Two (0) by 2020 = ZERO (1) = ONE (3) UK (small, EU edge) 2005, 2007, 2012 CO2 inject 2019£ 1 Bn Prize
  • 17. 17 Does UK Govt WANT CCS ?? Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk “low cost” = high nuclear 2050 Calculator Carbon and energy : default example Ll llll n “carbon and bio ” = high fossil and carbon capture
  • 18. 18 Scottish fossil energy extraction Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Conventional Oil + gas 2014 - 2050 CO2 –EOR 2020 – 2035 Shale oil 2020 – 2035 Shale gas 2020 – 2060 Underground coal gas 2020 - 2200
  • 19. 19 Making it happen Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk PROBLEM Tax N Sea ≠ Spend on CCS SOLUTION • Divert oil tax to green energy • Extraction tax, to incentivise storage of carbon Oil, coal, shale tax “roads, hospitals and schools” Green clean 2 x CCS project now future ?
  • 20. 20 Avoiding a carbon bubble 1 tonne CO2 out = 1 tonne CO2 in Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk More fossil carbon extraction, faster ≠ Mitigation later ….
  • 21. 21 INDUSTRY IN SCOTLAND Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk • 2000 – 4,000 DIRECT jobs in Scottish industry, 250,000 offshore 10,000 in Renewables • Industry process emissions can not be displaced – must be captured • Should h/c resource be left in the ground ? Very unlikely to change an EU / UK oil/gas price • Scotland has lots of oil. And coal, shale oil, shale gas • Developing CCS requires synergy – to build pipes and storage
  • 22. 22 INDUSTRY IN SCOTLAND Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Keeping C intensive industry – needs CO2 cleanup
  • 23. 23 Creating a low carbon industry zone Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
  • 24. 24 Renewables are good But not large enough – heroic effort possible Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
  • 25. 25 All electricity – by fuel Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
  • 26. 26 Summary Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk • Electricity is a small part of energy. Include HEAT, INDUSTRY • Is carbon, or money more dominant ? • Security of supply – renewables PLUS storage, or INFILL • Economics of transmission charging – Scotland centric • Mixed generation – windpower on best sites - balancing carbon extraction  Trees for fuel - baseload flexible generation – with CCS - • Aim beyond 2030 – to 2050, …… 3,100 AD