The development and impact of the residential sector in TIMES Ireland Model

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IEA-ETSAP

The development and impact of the residential sector in TIMES Ireland Model Mr. Jason Mc Guire, MaREI, UCC

Environment

The development and impact of the residential sector in
TIMES Ireland Model
Jason Mc Guire, Fionn Rogan, Olexandyr Balyk, Brian O Gallachóir & Hannah Daly
Energy Policy & Modelling Group at MaREI, UCC
SUMMER 2021 SEMI-ANNUAL ETSAP MEETING

59
51
47
46
41
39
24
23
34
10.5
9
9
3
49
Denmark
Ireland
United States
United Kingdom
EU-27
Japan
New Zealand
GHG 2030 target, % relative to 2018 % GHG from Agriculture
International Climate Targets

Ireland Climate Targets
Source: EPA & PfG
29,858
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
GHG
Emissions
(MtCO2eq)
60,934
Reduce GHG
emissions by 51%
by 2030 compared
to 2018, and “Net-
Zero” by 2050.
Aims to make PfG
targets and
sectoral five-year
carbon budgets
legally binding

Residential Sector Structure
• TIMES Ireland Model (TIM) Residential Sector:

$Building Energy Rating Database {Source:https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/jason.mc.guire/ viz/IrelandBERRegionalData/Ireland_BER_MapData} • Region • Count • BER Rating • CO2 Rating • Archetype • Heating Fuel • Heating System Efficiency • Area (m2) • U-Values • Type of Wall • Year of Construction • Renewables • Energy Service Demand$

Housing
Stock
Attached
Detached
Apartment
Retrofitting & Heat Pumps
The connection between Heat Pumps and Retrofits:

Residential Demands
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Apartment Attached Detached
TJ/year/dwelling
Average Existing vs New dwelling – Space Heating
Demand
Average Exsisting New
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2018 2030 2050
Total
Dwellings
(‘000s)
Total Dwellings
Existing Apartment Existing Attached Existing Detached
New Apartment New Attached New Detached
Apartment
12%
Attached
45%
Detached
43%
Apartment
24%
Attached
41%
Detached
35%

Core Results – CO2 emissions
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
ktCO2
Core Scenario
Agriculture Industry Power Resdiential Service Transport
Core Scenario is Low Agriculture Mitigation (LAM) assumes that Agriculture reduces GHG emissions at the rate of
around 3.3% per annum
Reduction
compared to
2018 levels
2030 2050
Residential 75% 86%
Core Scenario
No Mitigation Scenario

Residential Energy Consumption
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ/year
Core – Residential Fuel Share
Wood Solar Peat LPG
Kerosene Heat Gas Ethanol
Electricity Coal Biodiesel Ambient Heat
• Kerosene gone by 2032
• 36% of fuel in 2018
• Coal gone by 2030
• Peat gone by 2030
• Difficult to measure
• Solar expands quickly to 2030
• Electrification & Ambient from
26% in 2018 to:
• 57% in 2030
• 59% in 2050

Core Results – Retrofitting
176
162
119
223
0
50
100
150
200
250
Detached Attached
Thousands
(‘000)
Retrofits 2030
Deep Shallow
209
162
159
229
0
50
100
150
200
250
Detached Attached
Thousands
(‘000)
Retrofits 2050
Deep Shallow
• Maximum 689,000 retrofits before 2030 ( 60%) and 1.15 million by 2070 ( 95% of existing buildings)

411
390
25
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Detached Attached Apartments
Thousands
(‘000)
New Heat Pumps 2030
Core Scenario
Results – Heat Pumps
Other,
59%
Heat Pump
Electricity,
12%
Heat Pump
Ambient,
29%
Share of Fuel in Water and Space
Heating 2030

v
• Insights:
• 680,000 Retrofits by 2030 – only in Attached & Detached
• 826,000 Electrical Heat Pumps by 2030
• Similar amount of Solar Water Heating when no constraints
• Coal and Peat gone by 2030 and Kerosene gone by 2032
• Electrification of Residential Sector by 2030
• Future Work:
• Improve District Heating
• Disaggregate the BER labels, explore the optimal sequence of retrofits
• Explore Gas decarbonization

E-mail: jason.mcguire@ucc.ie
Twitter: @jayomacg
Thank you for listening, I welcome any questions.

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