The document discusses population growth trends over the last 2000 years and projections for future growth. It outlines Thomas Malthus' prediction in 1798 that population would grow faster than food supply, leading to famine and death. Paul Ehrlich's 1968 work Population Bomb warned that overpopulation would lead to widespread starvation in the 1970s-80s. The document then provides definitions and limitations of key demographic indicators like birth rate, death rate, fertility rate, and life expectancy. Graphs show historical birth and mortality trends in Sweden/Mexico and the Middle East. The demographic transition model outlines 4 stages of population growth patterns seen in most countries over the last century.

1. GEOGRAPHY - CORE THEME #1
POPULATIONS IN TRANSITION
1

2. Population growth since the Stone Age Population growth since 1750
Watch an animated dot map showing the evolution of the human population for the last 2000 years:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BbkQiQyaYc
2

3. The Malthusian Projection
Thomas Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population (England, 1798)
[There is a] constant effort towards an increase in population [which tends to] subject the lower classes of society to distress and
to prevent any great permanent amelioration of their condition. The way in which these effects are produced seems to be this:
we will suppose the means of subsistence in any country just equal to the easy support of its inhabitants. The constant effort
towards population (…) increases the number of people before the means of subsistence are increased. The food therefore,
which before supplied seven millions, must now be divided among seven millions and half or eight millions. The poor
consequently must live much worse, and many of them be reduced to severe distress (…). The power of population is so superior
to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human
race. The vices of mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation. They are the precursors in the great army of
destruction, and often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons,
epidemics, pestilence, and plague advance in terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and tens of thousands. Should success
be still incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the population with the food of
the world.
Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, 1968
Population control – or race to oblivion? Overpopulation is now the dominant problem in all our personal, national and
international planning. No one can do rational planning, nor can public policy be resolved in any area unless one first takes into
account the population bomb (…). The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds to millions of
people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now (…). Population control is the conscious
regulation of the numbers of human beings to meet the needs not just of individual families, but of society as a whole.
3

4. MAIN DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS
Type of indicator Indicator Definition Limitations
Number of live births per 1,000 people per Affected by age-sex structure
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) year
Fertility of an imaginary woman who passes Not based on the fertility of any
through her reproductive life real group of women
(15-49) subject to all the age-specific fertility
rates for ages 15–49 that were recorded for a
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
BIRTH given population in a given year
To see how it is calculated, go to:
www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/
animations/fecondity/
TFR needed to achieve demographic Doesn’t take into account
Replacement Fertility Rate equilibrium (stable population): 2.1 to 2.3 (up migratory gains/losses
to 3.0 for high CMR)
Number of deaths per 1,000 people per year Affected by age structure
Crude Death Rate (CDR)
Number of infants who died before the age of Can be affected when counting
Infant mortality Rate (IMR) 1 per 1,000 live births mortality linked to infanticides
or sometimes miscarriages
MORTALITY Number of children who died before the age of
Child mortality Rate (CMR) 5 per 1,000 live births
Average number of years of life remaining at a Life Expectancy at Birth (LEB)
given age. depends highly on IMR or CMR,
Life expectancy To see how it is calculated, go to: so demographers sometimes
www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/ prefer Life Expectancy at Five
animations/life_expectancy/ (LEF)
Natural gain per 1,000 people per year Doesn’t take into account
NATURAL GROWTH Rate of Natural Increase
(RNI = CBR – CDR) migratory gains/losses
4

5. Birth and Mortality and Sweden and Mexico
(1735-2000)
CBR Sweden
CBR Mexico
CDR Sweden
CDR Mexico
CBR: Crude Birth Rate (= live birth / 1000 people / year)
CDR: Crude Death Rate (= death / 1000 people / year)
5

6. Birth and Mortality
In the Middle East
(1950-2004)
6

7. North America Europe
Russia
China East
Asia
Mexico India
Brazil
South Central-South
Africa Asia
Latin America
Caribbean Sub-Saharan North Africa
Africa Middle East Oceania
7

8. DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATIONS: PATTERNS AT A GLOBAL SCALE
20% Pop.
80% Wealth
80% Pop.
20% Wealth
MEDCs (“North”) LEDCs (“South”)
Developed Countries Main Oil Exporters (OPEC)
Post-Communist Transition Emerging Powers
Intermediary Countries
Least Developed Countries (LDCs)
North/South Limit
© 2011 Antoine Delaitre

9. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONS (1950-2050)
WORLD SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
2010 2010
2010 2010
EAST ASIA EUROPE
9

10. AFRICA
The Demographic Transition Model
(DTM)
ASIA
EUROPE
10

11. 4 STAGES OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
DTM stage Pre-Transition Early Transition Middle Transition Post-Transition
High and stable CDR/CBR Moderate increase of
Decreasing CDR (20- Very low CDR (<10)
(40-50) CDR 10
CDR / CBR 30) Decreasing CBR (20-
(“accidents”: famine,
High CBR (40-50) 30) Low CBR 10
epidemics)
Very high and High but declining
Low RNI Low or negative RNI
RNI increasing RNI RNI
< 10 -5 to 10
>20 10-20
Rapid but declining Slow growth or
Growth Stable or slow growth Very rapid growth
growth decline?
Latin America, Middle
Europe, North
East, South Asia
Examples No examples today Sub Saharan Africa America, East Asia
(India)
(China)
World average 11

12. First, watch this animation about fertility: www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/animations/birth/
IMPACTING FACTORS MORTALITY FERTILITY
Education (linked to healthcare/revenue) Gender equality and status of women (measured by
Age structure: lower CDR in younger populations (see CDR GDI – Gender Development Index)
Sub-Saharan African 1950-2050) vs higher CDR in older Female education (linked to revenue/healthcare/birth
populations (see CDR in Europe 1950-2050) control/professional ambition)
Age of marriage: couples (particularly women) tend
to start procreating only once they are married
Residence can contribute to higher CBR:
SOCIOCULTURAL o Rural areas: rigid social pressures on women,
FACTORS less state control (China), fewer educational
opportunities for women
o Slums: young/poor population from rural
background
Religion: most religions are opposed to birth control
or contraception, but limited impact on actual
behavior (ex: Algeria v Yemen, Brazil vs Poland)
Revenue (affects nutrition, education, healthcare). Ex: Revenue: people with no retirement plans or social
Blacks vs Whites in South Africa security in some countries see large families as able a
Nutrition (2500 cal/day recommended) (linked to means to increase the family’s workforce (farmers),
revenue) and a protection for their old age
ECONOMIC FACTORS Industrialization and technology (linked to better farming Standard of living: raising a child is costly in countries
outputs) with a high standard of living
Residence: slums (pollution, poverty: Rio de Janeiro), poor Professional ambition of women can be incompatible
rural areas (low farm productivity: Nordeste Brazil) with repeated pregnancies
Hazardous occupations: soldiers, miners, farmers, etc
ENVIRONMENTAL Pollution (respiratory diseases), heat (infants and seniors) Pollution may affect fertility (uncertain)
FACTORS
Healthcare, primarily for infants (see IMR) or older people Use of birth control, contraception, abortion (linked
(see LEB) (linked to revenue/education) to education/healthcare)
Infectious diseases (LEDC: malaria, diarrhea, cholera, AIDS, Longer breastfeeding -> lower TFR
HEALTH FACTORS etc) and degenerative conditions (MEDC: cancer, stroke, Child’s survival rate (linked to healthcare/revenue):
heart disease, obesity) low survival rate may encourage women to have
Access to clean water more children to compensate for their losses.
Wars, political instability, man-made famines (Sudan) Non coercitive pro-natalist policies: Western Europe
POLITICAL FACTORS (limited impact)
Strict anti-natalist policies: China, India 12

13. 13

14. FERTILITY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Source: www.gapminder.org
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia / Middle East
Latin America
Europe / North America
East Asia
14

15. Regional level TFR CMR LEB
Europe
1.50 9 75.1
(East/West)
North America 2.26 7 79.3
East Asia 1.72 28 74
Latin America 2.04 28 73.4
North Africa /
2.94 45 70
Middle East
South Asia 2.60 50 66
Sub-Saharan Africa 5.08 148 51.5
World 2.56 71 67.6
National/State
TFR IMR LEB
level
Washington 1.80 5.1 79.4
Mississippi 2.26 10.7 73.9
USA 2.09 5.9 79.2
Uttar Pradesh 3.80 67 58.4
Kerala 1.70 12 73.5
India 2.76 54.6 63.5 15

16. TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR)
TFR
<2
2-3
3-5
5-6
>6
Niger: 7.19 Taiwan: 1.14
2010 averages: World = 2.49 / MEDC = 1.65 / LEDC = 2.62 16

17. INFANT MORTALITY RATE (IMR)
Japan: 3.3
Angola: 193
2010 averages: World = 47 / MEDC = 6 / LEDC = 52
17

18. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH
Japan: 82.1
Angola: 38.2
To estimate how many more years an average person like YOU is expected to live (note: it’s only an average!),18
go to http://calculator.livingto100.com/calculator

19. EXAMPLES OF POPULATION PYRAMIDS
2008
19

20. AGE-SEX IMBALANCES
Age-sex ratios Definition Impact
The sex ratio can sometimes be very imbalanced, for sociocultural or
economic reasons, with problematic consequences:
High sex ratio at birth (cultural preference for boys, abortions:
% of men for 100 women 120% in China): shortage of brides, lower TFR
Sex ratio (human biological sex ratio: 105% at High sex ratio adults (immigration of young men): Saudi Arabia
birth) 129% for age 15-64
Low sex ratio of adults (emigration of young men, alcohol,
cancer): shortage of husbands: loneliness of widows,
depression. Russia: 92% at age 15-64, 44% for 65+
An ageing ratio too low or too high reveals future strains on public
finances (education, retirement, health care)
Low ageing ratio (France, Japan): the population is too old ->
# or % of people under 20 challenge for health care and retirement
Ageing ratio compared to people over 65 Moderate ageing ratio (USA, Thailand, China): the population is
balanced
High ageing ratio (Kenya, Niger): the population is too young ->
challenge for education
High dependency ratio = burden on the working class to
educate the young and/or support the elderly.
Ex: Kenya, Niger= very high number of children
% of dependents (children+retirees) Low dependency ratio = there is a sufficiently large work force
Dependency
compared to productive population to support young/elderly.
ratio (15-64) Ex: China, Thailand = large work force
France, Japan or USA have a moderate dependency ratio = the
growing number of elderly is offset by the declining number of
children
The age that divides the population Measure the age of a population: SEE TABLE WITH IMPACT OF AGE
Median age into two groups of equal size World median age in 2010 = 29.1 (ie: 50% are younger than 29.1)
20

21. TYPICAL POPULATION PYRAMIDS
21

22. TYPICAL POPULATION PYRAMIDS
Pyramids Developing countries (LEDC) Developed countries (MEDC)
Shape Triangular pyramid Cylinder or spinning top
Wide base: Narrow base:
Base Poverty + poor education -> high TFR Affluence + good education -> low TFR
(TFR = 2.73, Africa = 7) (TFR = 1.64)
Narrow top: Widen top:
Top Poor health care -> low life expectancy Good health care -> high life expectancy
(LEB = 66) (LEB = 77)
“Population contraction”
“Population explosion”
High median age + ageing ratio -> challenge for shrinking
Low median age + ageing ratio -> Large work force in
young generations who have to support a growing
10-20 years. This can be beneficial ONLY IF that
number of retirees (Germany, Japan) + risk of population
population can be educated and later find
contraction UNLESS fertility increases to allow the
professional opportunities (ex: China), but
replacement of generations (>2.1) OR unless the country
represents a major challenge in very poor countries
opens to immigration (double benefit: influx of young
(ex: Niger, Uganda: 50% < age 15).
Significance pop + immigrants are usually poorer, less educated and
therefore tend to have a higher fertility rate) (ex: USA)
Confronted to those challenges, these countries usually
Confronted to those challenges, these countries
try to adopt pro-natalist policies or push back the
usually try to adopt anti-natalist policies. But the
retirement age (ex: legal retirement age 60 -> 62 in
poorest countries are also the ones who have the
France 2010?), while opening to immigration often
least government control to enforce any efficient
remains a sensitive political issue (Japan, Western
policy (lack of funds, corruption, civil unrest)
Europe)
22

23. IMPACT OF AGE ON A POPULATION
Youthful population Ageing population
(median age < 25) (median age > 35)
Young, dynamic, creative population -> progressivism Opposite of challenges of youthful
Large work force in the short term future population: good infrastructures, resources,
food supplies, low unemployment, abundant
Opportunities resources, less social tension and crime.
New market (“third age”, “seniors”) -> active
healthy population with free time (need for
recreation, artistic or health care jobs)
Pressure on infrastructures: housing shortage, slums, Lack of dynamism and creativity ->
roads, water, sewage, etc conservatism
Pressure on services: education (crowded classrooms, Pressure on retirement plans (high ageing
low schooling rate, high illiteracy rate), health care ratio) -> reduced benefits, higher taxes,
(high infant mortality and low life expectancy, rapid extension of working age
spread of epidemics), transportation, police, etc Pressure on health care (high life
Pressure on food supplies -> malnourishment leading expectancy) -> increasing medical costs
to occasional famine when coupled with civil unrest or Pressure on to allow immigration -> sensitive
climate accident political issue
Pressure on working population (high dependency
ratio) -> public debt
Challenges Pressure on job market -> unemployment, emigration
(males) sometimes leading to unbalanced sex ratio,
higher crime rates
Pressure on resources -> smaller farming lots,
desertification, lack of water
Pressure on future generations (high population
momentum) -> the challenges above will go on for at
least a generation
Pressure on idle young men -> “youth bulge” leading
to civil unrest, war or terrorism? (controversial theory
of Gunnar Heinsohn, 2003) 23

24. MEDIAN AGE
Japan: 44.7
Uganda: 15
Japan: 44.7 China: 34.2 Kenya: 18.4
France: 40.1 India: 25.0 Uganda: 15.0
USA: 36.6 Egypt: 23.9 World: 29.1
24

25. Dependency ratio: Ageing ratio:
• DR < 50%: low • AR < 3: low
•DR 50-80%: moderate •AR 3-5: moderate
•DR > 80: high •AR > 5: high
25

26. Population Momentum Factor:
PMF < 1: negative momentum = snowballing effect of ageing population will lead to a decline without immigration
PMF = 1: no momentum = no snowballing effect of youthful/ageing and population can reach equilibrium if nothing changes
PMF > 1: positive momentum = snowballing effect of the youthful population which will contribute to continued growth even with low TFR
26

27. POPULATION EXPLOSION, EQUILIBRIUM OR CONTRACTION?
See how fertility (TFR) and life expectancy (LEB) impact the future of a population using your own simulation:
www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/play_population/population_simulator/
27

28. Food intake (1964-2030) Wheat yields in developing countries
Recommended: 2,500 calories/day (1950-2004)
28