Johan Swinnen POLICY SEMINAR Retail food prices at the country level and implications for food security How are rising food prices, further aggravated by the invasion of Ukraine, being transmitted at the country level? MAR 29, 2022 - 9:30 TO 11:00AM EDT

1. Johan Swinnen
IFPRI & CGIAR
IFPRI Policy Seminar: “Retail food prices at the country level and
implications for food security”
March 29, 2022
Global Food Price Trends and
Implications for Food Security

2. High prices may be more challenging
than in previous spikes
• The poor are still
recovering from
COVID crisis
• Hunger and
malnutrition were
on the rise
• Cash strapped
governments have
little room to
maneuver
• It is unclear how
long current
challenges will
persist
Source: IFPRI Blog March, 2022

3. Food prices and stocks prior to Ukraine war
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Global inventories
Ending stocks (days of use)
Corn Soybeans Rice Wheat

4. Ukraine-Russia war immediate food impact

5. Longer term effects:
Input prices and the next harvest

6. Policy responses matter
Trade sanctions should avoid food and fertilizer businesses. Humanitarian operations should not be disrupted
Avoiding a spiraling crisis on global and regional markets through additional trade restrictions by exporters
Addressing global demand of crops for biofuels
Supporting an open and inclusive global trading system by favorizing the emergence of new actors
Protecting consumers during the storm: the role of social safety net
Making sure that farmers have access to inputs for the next planting season
Long term repurposing of food policy spending's: realigning incentives for products and consumers

7. Providing accurate, relevant,
and evidence-based
information in a crisis can only
when prepared
Rapid response draws on
capacity, expertise, models,
data, skills that take years to
build and constant efforts to
maintain
Important to invest in analytical
capacity & infrastructure –
both globally and locally
Implications for market and
policy analysis