Presentation on Africa's Agri-Food Systems Following the COVID-19 Pandemic by Holger A. Kray, World Bank

1. Africa’s Agri-Food Systems
Following the COVID-19 Pandemic
Holger A. Kray
Keynote to the 2020 ReSAKSS Conference
Photos: ©Dorte Verner; Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND

2. Main Messages
1. Poverty and food insecurity increasing rapidly in rural and urban areas
2. Keep the food system working and open (markets/processing/trade/logistics)
3. Need to act now to avoid further deterioration of food insecurity and allow for
a sustainable recovery  many good examples of programs underway
4. Bold ideas needed to address long-standing challenges and take advantage of
new opportunities
2

3. COVID 19 magnifies pre-existing issues

4. 239 Million Undernourished People in SSA
• 69 million people in acute food insecurity in SSA in 2019 (IPC3+)
• 2x people in acute food insecurity in SSA in 2020 compared to 2019 due to COVID-19
• Malnutrition will worsen, especially child malnutrition
4
Source: Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET)

5. Public support to agriculture in Africa declining
5
Source: CAADP biennial evaluation report 2019

6. In Africa, countries’ current ag transformation strategies often fall short
Based on evidence from 13 SSA economies
6
Agricultural expenditure on ag as share of
total public expenditures
Agriculture budget allocated
to effective enablers2
Agricultural (CAADP) strategies that
have basic building blocks1
Source: ReSAKSS; MAFAP; McKinsey research
No. of countries /w certain percentage
2
6
5
5-10%0-5% >10%
2
3
5
80-100%0-60% 60-80%
No. of countries /w certain percentage
No. of ag strategies with basic building blocks
3
4
6
30-2 4-5
1 Basic building blocks include cost estimates, measurable targets, an explicit gender strategy, mapping against existing resources or funding, and indication of clear priorities
2 % of ag budget allocated to infrastructure, R&D and capacity building vs. direct payments to producers, consumers or other players (specifically categories I-U from FAO’s MFAP)
No. of countries hitting ag disbursement targets
50%+
from target
20-50%
of target
32
5
Within 20%
of target
Share of budget actually disbursed

7. Multiple drivers amplify food security risks

8. Multiple Crises Amplify Food Security Risks
8
(*) IPC 2020 estimates are pre-COVID
Source: WFP 2020, https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/WFP-0000114546.pdf

9. Global Food Markets: Hunger Amid Plenty
9
• Cereal stocks at an all-time high
• International food prices overall moderate
• Only international rice prices are up by 10% (M/M) and 20% (Y/Y)
Global cereal stocks
Source: 2020 AMIS Market Monitor

10. Source: FAO (GIEWS)
Drivers of Food Insecurity in SSA under COVID-19
Food Supply Food Prices Food Demand
60% increase in food prices in some
SSA cities
• Int’l food markets are stable
• Depreciation of SSA currencies
Up to 7% projected drop in 2020 ag &
food production in SSA
• 14% of food imports affected by
export restrictions
• Food markets closed (new health
restrictions / informal vendors)
• Labor disruptions along the food
chain
• Domestic food trade restrictions
and agrologistic disruptions
10
26 – 58 million add’l poor in 2020 in SSA
• 23% drop in remittances
• Loss of jobs and income
• Social Protection Program disruptions
Source: SSAPOV/GMO database. PovcalNet. World Bank/IMF GDP forecasts
Nominal food price changes across key
markets for cereals (schematic)
Poverty rate for SSA will increase by at least
2 percentage points

11. The Need for a Comprehensive Agenda

12. Food Supply Food Prices Food Demand
COVID-19 Food Policy and Program Responses
Acting Now with a Differentiated Approach
UrgentEmergency
Response–
Safeguarding
incomes
• Strategic food reserves
• Int’l & domestic trade
measures
• Retrofitting food systems for
new C19 guidelines
• Scale up / adjust Social
Protection and Jobs Programs
• Nutrition (health) interventions
• Expand/adapt institutional food
purchases
• HF Monitoring
• Macro (inflation / ExRate)
• Reducing legal/illegal food
taxation
UrgentRecovery
Response–
Safeguarding
livelihoods
• Agrifood SME support and
productive inclusion
• Ag & Food policy reform
• Ag&Food production
/innovation
• Ag&Food public goods / services
• Agile/responsive SP&J Programs
for livelihoods recovery
• Multisector nutrition approach
(health, SP, WASH, agriculture)
• Early Warning Systems (EWS)
• Food & ag market info systems
• E-commerce platforms
12

13. Policy Actions Program Investments Advisory
Overhaul ID systems and registries
(SP, farmer registries)
Reform policies on strategic food
reserves and food aid
Realign ag and food policy incentives
(nutrition/climate smart agriculture)
Intra-regional trade support (AfCFTA)
Deploy agile and shock-responsive SP
and agriculture programs
Crowdsourcing agriculture and food
disruptive technology solutions
Mid-size agri-food financing
Support to local gov’ts / comm. on
food market standards and
opportunities for urban agriculture
High frequency monitoring of
food prices, stocks, HH food
security and logistics/trade
disruptions
Mapping of food system to
identify bottlenecks and
interventions
Quantifying agriculture and
food policies / distortions
COVID-19 Food Policy and Program Responses:
The Need for a Comprehensive Agenda
Opportunities to leapfrog: gender / youth / capacity building / digital technologies
EmergencyRecovery
13

14. Leveraging Internal Cooperation at the World Bank
14
Agriculture and
Food, 60%
Environment,
Natural
Resources & the
Blue Economy,
15%
Water, 9%
Urban, Resilience
and Land, 5%
Macro, Finance, Social Protection,
Transport, Other 12%
Share of Agriculture and Food Related Lending FY17-19
About 40% of Agriculture and
Food Global Practice mapped
projects are done with
contributions from other
Departments, especially
within the Sustainable
Development Practice

15. Leveraging External Partnerships
Building Coalitions to deliver better together
Many strong partnerships, but we still
need to find solutions to deliver better
together:
 Streamlining disparate investments
and isolated interventions toward the
core problem
 Integrating risk management into the
existing development frameworks
 Focusing on (knowledge for)
implementation – lessons across
partners
 Paving the way for future investments
of partners and the private sector
15

16. Africa’s Agri-Food Systems
Following the COVID-19 Pandemic
Holger A. Kray
Keynote to the 2020 ReSAKSS Conference
Photos: ©Dorte Verner; Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND