The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) is organizing a hybrid launch event for its 2023 Global Food Policy Report in Nairobi, Kenya, in collaboration with University of Nairobi and as part of the CGIAR Initiative on National Policies and Strategies (NPS) seminar series on May 19, 2023, at 2.00pm. The 2023 Global Food Policy Report, IFPRI’s flagship report, provides a broad set of evidence-based recommendations for better predicting and preparing for crises, addressing crises when they occur and building equity and resilience of food systems. The recent overlapping, complex shocks to food systems, including the COVID-19 pandemic, higher food prices, conflicts, and natural disasters have increased the risk of food insecurity, hunger, and malnutrition, thus disrupting livelihoods, increasing poverty, and further diminishing prospects for the world’s most vulnerable people. As crises become more frequent, complex, and prolonged, the report calls for reconsideration of food crisis responses, and building more long-term response solutions guided by solid evidence on the impacts of policies, programming, tools, and governance approaches. There is an urgent need for renewed and broader efforts to prevent, mitigate, and recover from crises in ways that build food system resilience, protect the livelihoods of women and marginal groups, ensure their inclusion in crisis response, and address the impacts of conflict and migration. The Kenya discussion of IFPRI’s 2023 GFPR will present key findings and recommendations of the report at global and regional levels. A distinguished set of discussants will then present their reflections on the report and provide insights on crisis response and resilience building in Kenya.

1. Kenya Discussion:
2023 Global Food Policy Report
May 19, 2023 • 2:00 pm EAT • Nairobi, Kenya

2. Overview of Key Findings
Clemens Breisinger

3. Johan Swinnen & Katrina Kosec
International Food Policy Research Institute
The Road to Resilience
Rethinking Responses to Food Crises

4. Vulnerability of food systems :
Compounding crises, shocks, and structural setbacks
Source: FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, and WHO, The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the
World 2022, (Rome: FAO, 2022).
13
7.8
8
9.8
796
572 618
768
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Millions
Percentage
Prevalence and number of
undernourished worldwide, 2000–2021
Prevalence of undernourishment (percent)
Number of people undernourished (million)
Price volatility 2000-2022
Source: Heady et al 2021

5.  More frequent, complex, and
protracted crises likely
 Climate change a looming danger
 Up to 21% reduction in agricultural productivity
growth since 1961
 Contributor of food crises for >20 million people
in 2021
 Compounding crises: conflict, climate
change, and economic shocks
 For example: Syria, Afghanistan, and South
Sudan
Climate, Conflict, Covid, and Food Security
0
50
100
150
200
250
1900
1906
1913
1918
1923
1928
1933
1938
1943
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
2018
Trends in extreme weather events,
droughts, and floods, 1900–2022
Extreme weather events Drought Flood
Source: https://emdat.be/

6.  Forced migrants
 ~103 million people forcibly displaced in 2022
 80% experienced acute food insecurity
 Low- and middle-income countries
 especially vulnerable
 limited resources for crisis response
 Women
 Impacts to women’s dietary diversity, decision-
making power, assets, health, and physical safety
 Setback of gender equality goals by 30 years
Food crises impact some more heavily than others
103
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Millions
Forcibly Displaced People
Source: UNHCR (2023).
Note: Includes internally displaced people and refugees.

7.  Early-warning, early-action (EWEA) systems
 Systems must better address complexity of crises
 Filling M&E gaps is critical
 Integrating existing systems can ensure that policymakers
receive clear, timely, and actionable warning signals
 Anticipatory action frameworks
 Require monitoring data that illuminate risks, exposure, and
vulnerability
 Can mitigate crises at lower cost and support longer-term
development efforts
 Robust governance and improved targeting raise efficacy
Policy recommendations (1)

8.  Resilient agrifood value chains
 Businesses should invest in improved and innovative tools
like climate-smart agriculture and new forms of insurance
 Governments should create a business environment that
fosters value chain innovations
 Data can be used to target assistance to crucial value
chain nodes
 Responsive social protection systems
 Governments need highly adaptive, flexible, and inclusive
social protection systems
 Integrate “shock responsive” social protection with EWEA
and humanitarian aid for greater coherence
 Explore new ways to cover costs (e.g., climate or green
financing) and reduce costs (e.g., using mobile payments)
Policy recommendations (2)

9.  Empowering women amid crisis
 Improve the quality of gender-disaggregated data collected
before and during crises
 Creating explicit gender targets in crisis response and track
them
 Increase women’s political participation and amplify their
voice and agency in their communities
 Responding to forced migration
 Governments should invest in infrastructure and design
policies that expand the benefits of migration
 Innovative data collection can be used to better understand
and address the root causes of forced migration
Policy recommendations (3)

10. 2023 GFPR Table of Contents
1.The Road to Resilience: Rethinking Responses to Food Crises
2. Food Crisis Risk Monitoring: Early Warning for Early Action
3. Crisis Resilience: Humanitarian Response and Anticipatory Action
4. Agrifood Value Chains: Building Resilient Food Systems
5. Social Protection: Adaptive Safety Nets for Crisis Recovery
6. Gender: Promoting Equality in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Settings
7. Forced Migration: Fragility, Resilience, and Policy Responses
(+ Six Regional Chapters)

11. 2023 GFPR: A timely contribution
 Cutting-edge analysis from IFPRI and partners
about recent crises and their impacts on food
security, nutrition, poverty, and livelihoods
 Concrete strategies for crisis response
 Takeaways:
 Existing research, and additional investments in new
research, can serve decision-makers and support HDP
nexus strategies
 Transforming food systems is a logical and powerful entry
point from which to achieve crisis resilience

12. FOOD CRISIS
RESPONSE-AFRICA
REGION
Lensa Omune (Research Officer), Juneweenex Mbuthia (Research officer)
University of Nairobi Public Lecture
19 May 2023

13. www.cgiar.org
Outline of the Presentation
Global Food Policy Report-Africa Region
Findings
Impacts of Russia-Ukraine Conflict in Kenya
Impacts of implementing the Bottom-Up
Economic Plan on food systems and social
outcomes

14. Africa: 20% of population are facing food insecurity and undernourished
 Significant variation across regions and countries
o Central and southern Africa most affected, followed by eastern and western Africa
o Countries with largest number of people affected: DRC, Ethiopia, Nigeria
o Countries with largest share of population affected: South Sudan, Angola
Overall, the share affected in Africa is more than double the share in any other world region
Share of population in crisis or worse, 2021
Number of people in crisis or worse, 2021
Source: 2022
Global Report on
Food Security
(adopted from Benin 2023)

15.  Main drivers: conflict, weather shocks (esp. droughts & floods),
and poverty, all of which affect the demand, supply, and
availability of food
 Extreme weather-related pests have worsened the situation
o Fall armyworm plague that started in 2016 in western Africa
o Locust infestation across eastern Africa in 2020
 Agricultural policies have also contributed
o Policy support favor ag. exports (whose prices have been
declining) over food commodities consumed (whose prices have
been rising)
o Declining export prices  lower foreign exchange receipts/income
o Rising food prices  higher food import bills
o Lower foreign exchange + higher food imports  declining
investment in food systems and other key public goods/services
 Other shocks: Ebola, Covid-19 pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war
 Incidence and severity of these drivers and shocks vary across
the continent
Fall
army
worm
Drivers of food crises in Africa
El Niño & La Niña
(adopted from Benin 2023)

16. Gendered effects of food crises in Africa
 Food crises affect women and men and boys and girls differently due to
norms and cultural practices that lead to different roles, responsibilities, and
access to resources and coping strategies
 Price shocks in several countries during Covid-19 pandemic: 33% of
women vs. 30% of men affected
 Job loss in South Africa during Covid-19 pandemic: two-thirds were
women
 Loss of trader incomes in Sierra Leone & Liberia during Ebola: 85% were
women
 These exacerbate other negative impacts for women and girls, such as
violence and sexually transmitted infections
 Ebola outbreak in DRC: increase sexual and domestic violence
 Ebola outbreak in Guinea: 4.5% increase in violence against women
 Higher rates of chronic malnutrition among pregnant women and children in
armed conflict areas (e.g., Burundi, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Nigeria,
Rwanda, and Somalia) (adopted from Benin 2023)

17. Impacts of Russia-Ukraine
Conflict in Kenya

18. Kenya | Russia-Ukraine Conflict Impacts
Foresight and Metrics to
Accelerate Food, Land
and Water Systems
Transformation
National Policies and
Strategies for Food, Land
and Water Systems
Transformation
Country partners
 Kenya Institute for public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA)
 Ministry of Agriculture ,Livestock, Fisheries and Co-operatives (MoALF)
 Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS)
 Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO)
 Tegemeo Institute
Stakeholder engagements
 CoPP workshop to discuss assumptions and scenarios
 Policy consultations with MALFC especially on fertilizer policies
 Public dissemination seminar jointly with KIPPRA
↑ 450,000 Poor population
Food price shock also has a large
impact on food security
↑ 680,000 Poor population
↑ 550,000 Undernourished
population
Fertilizer price shock has the largest
impact on poverty and food security,
and disrupts agri-food systems
↓ $230 million Agri-food system GDP
IFPRI-Kenya https://www.ifpri.org/program/kenya-strategy-support-program

19. Results | GDP and Employment
• National GDP and employment declines
• Negative terms-of-trade shock
 (i.e., negative effect of higher import prices outweighs positive effect of higher export prices)
• Rising import costs reduces spending on domestically
produced goods
• Falling production leads to job losses
• Impacts occur throughout the economy
• Agri-food system GDP and employment also fall
• GDP declines in both primary agriculture and off-
farm agri-food sectors (e.g., processing, trading)
• Larger GDP declines in agriculture (equal to 30% of
overall GDP losses in the country)
• Faster job losses in off-farm sectors, especially in
food-related services, incl. trade and transport
Source: IFPRI Kenya RIAPA Model
Contribution to total change
GDP
Jobs
-0.8%
-1.0%
-1.1%
-0.7%
-0.8%
-2.6%
-2.1%
-1.8%
-4.7%
-3.2%
Whole economy
Whole AFS
Agriculture
Off-farm
OutsideAFS
Agri-food
system
Change in GDP and employment due to
food, fuel and fertilizer shocks (%)
GDP Employment
30%
9%
60%
Agriculture
Off-farm
Outside AFS
37%
13%
51%
Foresight and Metrics to
Accelerate Food, Land
and Water Systems
Transformation
National Policies and
Strategies for Food, Land
and Water Systems
Transformation

20. Results | Household Consumption
Source: IFPRI Kenya RIAPA Model
• Household consumption falls significantly
• Larger than GDP losses as production shifts to exports to
cover import costs & in response to real exchange rate
• Rising food prices is a more important driver of
consumption losses than for GDP losses
• Importance of shocks differs across population groups:
• Fertilizer shocks important for rural and poor households
• Rely more on farm incomes
• Consume more domestically-produced foods
• Fuel shocks important for urban and nonpoor households
• Earn more income outside the agri-food system
• More import-intensive consumer basket
• Consume products with larger transaction cost margins
• Food prices affect all households
• Higher food consumption share for poor households, means
slightly larger impacts
Contribution
to change
-0.8%
-0.7%
-0.8%
-1.0%
-0.7%
-1.1%
-0.8%
-1.2%
-0.7%
-1.1%
-0.7%
-1.7%
-2.0%
-0.5%
-2.5%
-3.2%
-2.1%
-3.7%
-2.4%
National
Rural
Urban
Poor
Nonpoor
Percentage change in real consumption
Food prices Fuel prices Fertilizer prices & response
30%
42%
28%

21. Impacts of implementing the
Bottom-Up Economic Plan on
food systems and social
outcomes

22. Headlines | Macroeconomy
 Economy grows much faster under Bottom-
Up Plan
o Total GDP growth rises from 4.8% to 7.2% per year
 Private and public consumption demand
grows slower than GDP
o Leads to falling consumer prices (CPI)
 Investment growth accelerates
o Doubling base-run growth rate
o Capital supply grows much faster than land or labor
 Trade position improves significantly
o Stronger export growth (relative to imports)
Growth Under Base-Run and Accelerated
Growth Scenarios
(average annual growth rate, 2022-2027)
4.8%
4.8%
4.5%
3.9%
5.6%
4.0%
-0.8%
7.2%
5.9%
6.0%
8.1%
11.3%
5.5%
-1.2%
Total GDP
Consumption
Government
Investment
Exports
Imports
CPI
Base-run Accelerated growth
Foresight and Metrics to
Accelerate Food, Land
and Water Systems
Transformation
National Policies and
Strategies for Food, Land
and Water Systems
Transformation

23. Headlines | Sector GDP growth
 Growth accelerates in all broad economic
sectors
o About additional 2-3%-points growth rates
o Relatively larger accelerations in agriculture (“bottom-up”)
 Economy continues to undergo structural
change
o Slower growth (in absolute terms) in agriculture that has
lower productivity
o Faster growth in manufacturing that has higher productivity
GDP Growth Under Base-Run and Accelerated
Growth Scenarios
(average annual growth rate, 2022-2027)
4.9%
3.4%
3.2%
4.4%
4.9%
5.6%
5.4%
7.4%
5.6%
5.3%
7.1%
8.3%
8.9%
7.9%
Total GDP
Agriculture
Crops
Livestock
Industry
Manufacturing
Services
Base-run Accelerated growth
Foresight and Metrics to
Accelerate Food, Land
and Water Systems
Transformation
National Policies and
Strategies for Food, Land
and Water Systems
Transformation

24. Headlines | Household Impacts
 Incomes and employment rises with accelerated
growth
o GDP per capita increases $280 (30,700 KSh) by 2027 ($540 vs.
$260)
o Additional 700,000 jobs created (4.3 mil. vs. 5.0 mil.)
 Rising incomes reduce poverty
o 2.8 million fewer poor people by 2027 (see poverty headcount)
o Growth benefits poorest of the poor (see poverty gap)
 Food security also improves
o 1.5 million fewer undernourished people (see hunger headcount)
o Diet deprivation declines (i.e., gap between household-level consumption and
healthy reference diet, based on six major food groups)
 Bottom-Up Plan is consistent with its goals
o Faster growth and job creation
o Reduced poverty, hunger, and cost-of-living
Poverty and Food Security Outcomes Under
Base-Run and Accelerated Growth Scenarios
(change in outcomes, 2022-2027)
0.26
4.3
-1.46
-0.55
-0.82
-0.90
0.54
5.0
-2.35
-0.85
-1.30
-1.68
GDP per capita ($1000)
Jobs created (millions)
Headcount (%-point)
Gap (%-point)
Hunger headcount (%-point)
Diet deprivation (ReDD)
Poverty
Food
security
Base-run Accelerated growth

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