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Food and Nutrition in
Light of COVID-19
Lamine Lahouasnia, Head of Research
Jared Koerten, Industry Manager
María Mascaraque, Industry Manager
© Euromonitor International
2
This PowerPoint presentation includes proprietary information
from Euromonitor International and cannot be used or stored with
the intent of republishing, reprinting, repurposing or redistributing
in any form without explicit consent from Euromonitor International.
For usage requests and permission, please contact us
http://www.euromonitor.com/locations.
The data included in this document is accurate according to Passport,
Euromonitor International’s market research database, at time of
publication: April 2020
2
© Euromonitor International
3
Euromonitor International
network and coverage
ABOUT EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL
Economic Outlook and
Industry Impact
© Euromonitor International
5
Four Areas Impacting the World of Foods in
Light of COVID-19
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT
Channel
Supply Chain
Macro-environment +
Legislation
Consumer +
Consumption
• Negative macro-
economic impact (↑
unemployment,
closure of sectors of
the economy)
• Enforced lockdowns
• Shifts of supply chain
(↑ demand)
• Borders closed and
controls in place
• Shutdown of foodservice
and institutional channels
• Shifts to in-store retailing
• ↑ E-commerce
• Stockpiling
• Fewer trips and larger
baskets
• Larger pack sizes
© Euromonitor International
6
A Brief Look at Euromonitor International’s
Global Macro-environment Outlook
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT
Global
infection
rate
Mortality
rate
Pandemic
duration Probability
Global real
GDP growth
in 2020
Baseline 1-10% 0.3-1.3%
1-2
quarters
40-50% [-1.5%, 0.5%]
COVID-19
Deep
Recession
5-25% 0.5-1.5%
1-3
quarters
20-30% [-3.5%, -1.5%]
COVID-19
Crisis
15-35% 1.0-3.0%
2-4
quarters
15-25% [-5.5% , -3.5%]
COVID-19
Deep
Crisis
20-50% 1.5-3.5%
2-6
quarters
2-10% [-9.0%, -5.5%]
Source: Euromonitor International
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
%
Global Real GDP Growth
Baseline
COVID-19 Deep Recession
COVID-19 Crisis
COVID-19 Deep Crisis
Source: Euromonitor International
© Euromonitor International
7
The Two Faces of Supply Chain Disruption
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
USD
million
Value of Agricultural Imports by Region
2016-2018
2016 2017 2018
Focus on main
SKUs
NPDs on hold
Arla UK temporarily removes one-pint
cartons and skimmed milk to increase
production output
Source: Euromonitor International
Delayed cross-border deliveries Range optimisation
© Euromonitor International
8
Shifting Food Occasions: In-store Retailing
Benefits
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT
Consumer Foodservice Institutional
Retail
“Nearly half of our Haagen-Dazs shops in
Greater China had been temporarily closed. In
total, we saw a 90% decline in traffic in shops
and substantial declines in other foodservice
outlets in China in February, resulting in a
significant reduction in Haagen-Dazs sales in
Asia for the month.”
Jeff Harmening, CEO, General Mills, Q3 2020 Results
9
© Euromonitor International
© Euromonitor International
10
The Food Industry Likely to See the Largest
Lift in 2020 Sales
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT
Global
Packaged Food
Retail Value
+1.6%
Global Fresh
Food Total
Volume
+2.6%
2019
Source: Euromonitor International
© Euromonitor International
11
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT
Fresh Food: APAC and the Americas Could
Suffer the Biggest Hit
Foodservice + Institutional as %
of total fresh food volumes
0-15%
15-30%
30-45%
45+%
Source: Euromonitor International
© Euromonitor International
12
Not All Food Categories Are Suffering in the
Same Way with Foodservice Closures
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT
Source: Euromonitor International
© Euromonitor International
13
Could E-commerce in Food Finally Take Off?
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT
Yili and Mengniu set up community WeChat
groups and official accounts for order
placing and providing direct-to-consumer
delivery services, particularly for consumers
in Wuhan (China)
Source: Euromonitor International
© Euromonitor International
14
Or Will Infrastructure Prevent Broader
Adoption?
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT
Source: Euromonitor International
© Euromonitor International
15
Or Will Infrastructure Prevent Broader
Adoption?
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT
Source: Euromonitor International
© Euromonitor International
16
Challenges ahead for speciality retail
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Baked Goods Confectionery Ice Cream and
Frozen Desserts
Savoury Snacks Edible Oils Sweet Biscuits,
Snack Bars and
Fruit Snacks
Dairy
2019
Channel
Share
(%)
Food Specialist Channel: Global Share by Category, 2019
Global Food Specialist Channel
Growth 2019
+5.0%
Unpackaged Handcrafted
Experiential Premium
Source: Euromonitor International
© Euromonitor International
17
Stockpiling Sees Sales of Shelf Stable Goods
Soar
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT
0
5
10
15
20
25
%
Out
of
Stock
Dried pasta: % of SKUs flagged as out of stock
on retailer websites in selected markets
Italy Spain US UK
Snacks
Dairy
Shelf-stable and
frozen food
↑↑↑
↑↑
↑
Source: Euromonitor International
Long-term Implications
© Euromonitor International
19
How COVID-19 Disruptors are Impacting
Strategic Themes in Food and Nutrition
LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS
Animal Welfare
Dairy Alternatives
Edible Insects
Lab-Cultured Meat
Meat Analogues
Conscious
Consumption
Organic for me,
Organic for the
Plant
Plastic-Free Future
The Fight Against
Food Waste
The Role of Ethical
Brands
Clean Label and
the Era of Minimal
Processing
Healthy Eating in a
Post Better-for-
you World
New and Ancient
Ingredients
Food as Medicine
Food with
Functional Claims
Functional
Nutrients
Labelling and
Regulations
Digital Traceability
Data-Driven
Health
Packaging
Technology
Food Delivery
Back to Local
Returning to Roots
The
Internationalisation
of Food
Anytime,
Anywhere
New Value
Equation
Lifestage Nutrition
Sensory
Experience
Permissible
Indulgence
Consumer
Segmentation in the
Era of Eating
Occasions
Food Provenance
and the Country of
Origin Effect
Food Tech and the
Digital Economy
Functional Food and
the Regulatory
Environment
Mindful Eating and
the New Food Beliefs
Plant-Based Eating
and Alternative
Proteins
Sustainable Eating
and the
Environmental Cost
of Food
COVID-19 Disruptors
Preventative
Health
Home
Seclusion
Channel
Shifts
Stockpiling
© Euromonitor International
20
LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS
Asia Provides Signposts for Future
Potentially
retained
habit
changes
More online
shopping
Localism and
increased use
of smaller,
local stores
Greater
purchase of
immunity-
boosting
food
Use of
delivery for
(previously
unavailable)
foodservice
© Euromonitor International
21
LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS
Back to Local: Consumers More Likely to
Seek Locally Sourced Food
0% 10% 20% 30%
No animal products (vegan)
Doesnot contain lactose
Does not contain gluten
No high-fructose corn syrup
Short ingredient list
Only uses natural sweeteners
Only uses ingredints I recognize
Contain protein
Does not contain MSG
Contains added vitamins or fiber
Country of origin
Is organic
No GMO ingredients
% of respondents
“Which of the following factors do you look
for on food or drink labels?” (selected
responses)
Food provenance
Food safety
Support local
production
↓ Interest on
exotic foods
Source: Euromonitor International Global Health & Nutrition Survey; 2019 n:20,156
© Euromonitor International
22
LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS
Home-occasions Remain to Some Degree
Home-
cooking stays
Shift back
Eating occasions shift back to foodservice and
institutional channels to some degree
Negative economic impact sustains home-cooking
Medium-term: avoidance of crowds and concerns
about safety
Foodservice consolidates direct-to-consumer
infrastructure: increase in take-out/delivery
© Euromonitor International
23
LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS
Forced Acceleration of E-commerce May
Result in Sustained Channel Shifts
0%
10%
20%
30%
Expedited shipping Immediate
purchase
Ease and
availability of
delivery
Global
respondents
(%)
Consumers’ Online Shopping
Motivations Relating to Convenience:
2016-2020
2016 2017 2019 2020
Source: Euromonitor International’s Lifestyle survey,
2016 n=27,427; 2017 n=27,751; 2019 n=39,657; 2020 n=40,440
Shift back in-
store
↑E-commerce
remains
Short-term acceleration in e-commerce may
result in consumers sticking to it in some markets
Demand > Supply
Poor experience
Delivery slots booked up
New registrations on pause
© Euromonitor International
24
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
Traditional Grocery
Hypermarkets
Supermarkets
C-Stores + Forecourt
Discounters
2013-2018 % CAGR
Grocery Retailing in Developed
Markets
Premiumisation at Risk of Slowing Down
LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS
Source: Euromonitor International
Source: Euromonitor International
© Euromonitor International
25
Interest for Functional Food May Last
LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS
Meiji R-1 probiotic yoghurt has seen sales
soaring in Japan since early 2020
Source: Euromonitor International
Source: www.meiji.co.jp Source: www.meiji.co.jp
© Euromonitor International
26
Food and Nutrition in Light of COVID-19:
Key Takeaways
LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS
Stockpiling
Supply chain
disruption
↑ Home- cooking
↓ Demand in
foodservice/
institutional (i.e
hotels)
↑ Value-for-
money
offerings
Greater
purchase of
health &
wellness food
↑ E-commerce
Short-term effects Medium/long-term effect
in line of recession
Food safety and
Localism
Consumer habits may
remain
Thank You
Lamine Lahouasnia, Head of Research
Jared Koerten, Industry Manager
María Mascaraque, Industry Manager
Related Analysis:
http://blog.euromonitor.com/tag/coronavirus
For more information please contact:
Press-London@euromonitor.com

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COVID019FoodEuromonitor.pdf

  • 1. Food and Nutrition in Light of COVID-19 Lamine Lahouasnia, Head of Research Jared Koerten, Industry Manager María Mascaraque, Industry Manager
  • 2. © Euromonitor International 2 This PowerPoint presentation includes proprietary information from Euromonitor International and cannot be used or stored with the intent of republishing, reprinting, repurposing or redistributing in any form without explicit consent from Euromonitor International. For usage requests and permission, please contact us http://www.euromonitor.com/locations. The data included in this document is accurate according to Passport, Euromonitor International’s market research database, at time of publication: April 2020 2
  • 3. © Euromonitor International 3 Euromonitor International network and coverage ABOUT EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL
  • 5. © Euromonitor International 5 Four Areas Impacting the World of Foods in Light of COVID-19 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT Channel Supply Chain Macro-environment + Legislation Consumer + Consumption • Negative macro- economic impact (↑ unemployment, closure of sectors of the economy) • Enforced lockdowns • Shifts of supply chain (↑ demand) • Borders closed and controls in place • Shutdown of foodservice and institutional channels • Shifts to in-store retailing • ↑ E-commerce • Stockpiling • Fewer trips and larger baskets • Larger pack sizes
  • 6. © Euromonitor International 6 A Brief Look at Euromonitor International’s Global Macro-environment Outlook ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT Global infection rate Mortality rate Pandemic duration Probability Global real GDP growth in 2020 Baseline 1-10% 0.3-1.3% 1-2 quarters 40-50% [-1.5%, 0.5%] COVID-19 Deep Recession 5-25% 0.5-1.5% 1-3 quarters 20-30% [-3.5%, -1.5%] COVID-19 Crisis 15-35% 1.0-3.0% 2-4 quarters 15-25% [-5.5% , -3.5%] COVID-19 Deep Crisis 20-50% 1.5-3.5% 2-6 quarters 2-10% [-9.0%, -5.5%] Source: Euromonitor International -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 % Global Real GDP Growth Baseline COVID-19 Deep Recession COVID-19 Crisis COVID-19 Deep Crisis Source: Euromonitor International
  • 7. © Euromonitor International 7 The Two Faces of Supply Chain Disruption ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 200,000 USD million Value of Agricultural Imports by Region 2016-2018 2016 2017 2018 Focus on main SKUs NPDs on hold Arla UK temporarily removes one-pint cartons and skimmed milk to increase production output Source: Euromonitor International Delayed cross-border deliveries Range optimisation
  • 8. © Euromonitor International 8 Shifting Food Occasions: In-store Retailing Benefits ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT Consumer Foodservice Institutional Retail
  • 9. “Nearly half of our Haagen-Dazs shops in Greater China had been temporarily closed. In total, we saw a 90% decline in traffic in shops and substantial declines in other foodservice outlets in China in February, resulting in a significant reduction in Haagen-Dazs sales in Asia for the month.” Jeff Harmening, CEO, General Mills, Q3 2020 Results 9 © Euromonitor International
  • 10. © Euromonitor International 10 The Food Industry Likely to See the Largest Lift in 2020 Sales ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT Global Packaged Food Retail Value +1.6% Global Fresh Food Total Volume +2.6% 2019 Source: Euromonitor International
  • 11. © Euromonitor International 11 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT Fresh Food: APAC and the Americas Could Suffer the Biggest Hit Foodservice + Institutional as % of total fresh food volumes 0-15% 15-30% 30-45% 45+% Source: Euromonitor International
  • 12. © Euromonitor International 12 Not All Food Categories Are Suffering in the Same Way with Foodservice Closures ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT Source: Euromonitor International
  • 13. © Euromonitor International 13 Could E-commerce in Food Finally Take Off? ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT Yili and Mengniu set up community WeChat groups and official accounts for order placing and providing direct-to-consumer delivery services, particularly for consumers in Wuhan (China) Source: Euromonitor International
  • 14. © Euromonitor International 14 Or Will Infrastructure Prevent Broader Adoption? ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT Source: Euromonitor International
  • 15. © Euromonitor International 15 Or Will Infrastructure Prevent Broader Adoption? ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT Source: Euromonitor International
  • 16. © Euromonitor International 16 Challenges ahead for speciality retail ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Baked Goods Confectionery Ice Cream and Frozen Desserts Savoury Snacks Edible Oils Sweet Biscuits, Snack Bars and Fruit Snacks Dairy 2019 Channel Share (%) Food Specialist Channel: Global Share by Category, 2019 Global Food Specialist Channel Growth 2019 +5.0% Unpackaged Handcrafted Experiential Premium Source: Euromonitor International
  • 17. © Euromonitor International 17 Stockpiling Sees Sales of Shelf Stable Goods Soar ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INDUSTRY IMPACT 0 5 10 15 20 25 % Out of Stock Dried pasta: % of SKUs flagged as out of stock on retailer websites in selected markets Italy Spain US UK Snacks Dairy Shelf-stable and frozen food ↑↑↑ ↑↑ ↑ Source: Euromonitor International
  • 19. © Euromonitor International 19 How COVID-19 Disruptors are Impacting Strategic Themes in Food and Nutrition LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS Animal Welfare Dairy Alternatives Edible Insects Lab-Cultured Meat Meat Analogues Conscious Consumption Organic for me, Organic for the Plant Plastic-Free Future The Fight Against Food Waste The Role of Ethical Brands Clean Label and the Era of Minimal Processing Healthy Eating in a Post Better-for- you World New and Ancient Ingredients Food as Medicine Food with Functional Claims Functional Nutrients Labelling and Regulations Digital Traceability Data-Driven Health Packaging Technology Food Delivery Back to Local Returning to Roots The Internationalisation of Food Anytime, Anywhere New Value Equation Lifestage Nutrition Sensory Experience Permissible Indulgence Consumer Segmentation in the Era of Eating Occasions Food Provenance and the Country of Origin Effect Food Tech and the Digital Economy Functional Food and the Regulatory Environment Mindful Eating and the New Food Beliefs Plant-Based Eating and Alternative Proteins Sustainable Eating and the Environmental Cost of Food COVID-19 Disruptors Preventative Health Home Seclusion Channel Shifts Stockpiling
  • 20. © Euromonitor International 20 LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS Asia Provides Signposts for Future Potentially retained habit changes More online shopping Localism and increased use of smaller, local stores Greater purchase of immunity- boosting food Use of delivery for (previously unavailable) foodservice
  • 21. © Euromonitor International 21 LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS Back to Local: Consumers More Likely to Seek Locally Sourced Food 0% 10% 20% 30% No animal products (vegan) Doesnot contain lactose Does not contain gluten No high-fructose corn syrup Short ingredient list Only uses natural sweeteners Only uses ingredints I recognize Contain protein Does not contain MSG Contains added vitamins or fiber Country of origin Is organic No GMO ingredients % of respondents “Which of the following factors do you look for on food or drink labels?” (selected responses) Food provenance Food safety Support local production ↓ Interest on exotic foods Source: Euromonitor International Global Health & Nutrition Survey; 2019 n:20,156
  • 22. © Euromonitor International 22 LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS Home-occasions Remain to Some Degree Home- cooking stays Shift back Eating occasions shift back to foodservice and institutional channels to some degree Negative economic impact sustains home-cooking Medium-term: avoidance of crowds and concerns about safety Foodservice consolidates direct-to-consumer infrastructure: increase in take-out/delivery
  • 23. © Euromonitor International 23 LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS Forced Acceleration of E-commerce May Result in Sustained Channel Shifts 0% 10% 20% 30% Expedited shipping Immediate purchase Ease and availability of delivery Global respondents (%) Consumers’ Online Shopping Motivations Relating to Convenience: 2016-2020 2016 2017 2019 2020 Source: Euromonitor International’s Lifestyle survey, 2016 n=27,427; 2017 n=27,751; 2019 n=39,657; 2020 n=40,440 Shift back in- store ↑E-commerce remains Short-term acceleration in e-commerce may result in consumers sticking to it in some markets Demand > Supply Poor experience Delivery slots booked up New registrations on pause
  • 24. © Euromonitor International 24 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% Traditional Grocery Hypermarkets Supermarkets C-Stores + Forecourt Discounters 2013-2018 % CAGR Grocery Retailing in Developed Markets Premiumisation at Risk of Slowing Down LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS Source: Euromonitor International Source: Euromonitor International
  • 25. © Euromonitor International 25 Interest for Functional Food May Last LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS Meiji R-1 probiotic yoghurt has seen sales soaring in Japan since early 2020 Source: Euromonitor International Source: www.meiji.co.jp Source: www.meiji.co.jp
  • 26. © Euromonitor International 26 Food and Nutrition in Light of COVID-19: Key Takeaways LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS Stockpiling Supply chain disruption ↑ Home- cooking ↓ Demand in foodservice/ institutional (i.e hotels) ↑ Value-for- money offerings Greater purchase of health & wellness food ↑ E-commerce Short-term effects Medium/long-term effect in line of recession Food safety and Localism Consumer habits may remain
  • 27. Thank You Lamine Lahouasnia, Head of Research Jared Koerten, Industry Manager María Mascaraque, Industry Manager Related Analysis: http://blog.euromonitor.com/tag/coronavirus For more information please contact: Press-London@euromonitor.com