The document presents the results of a study called "Forest Vision" which modeled alternative forest management scenarios in Germany. The Forest Vision scenario aims to support broadleaf trees with reduced management intensity and increased protection of rare forests. It showed strong synergies between climate and nature protection, storing more carbon while improving habitats compared to a base or timber scenario. However, it resulted in 25% less potential wood supply, requiring more efficient wood use. The Forest Vision scenario can help climate and nature protection goals if policies support increased material versus energy use of wood.

1. www.oeko.de
Forest Vision Germany
Fern panel event:
„Achieving the 1.5° target with forests – What role for the EU?”
Öko-Institut
Dr. Klaus Hennenberg
Dr. Hannes Böttcher (Project Coordination)
Christian Winger Brussels, 7. March 2018
The study was commissioned by Greenpeace.
Scenario development took place in co-oppartion with Naturwald Akademie (Lübeck).

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Motivation and goals of Forest Vision
Forest vision │ Fern – Achieving the 1.5° target with forests │ Brussels │ 7. March 2018
Motivation:
• Spark a debate on the development of future-proof, sustainable and
ecological forestry in Germany
Goals
• Develop a scenario for alternative ecological forest management in
Germany, so the so-called ‘Forest Vision’
• Compare the Forest Vision with a Base Scenario and a Timber
Scenario by means of a simulation model
• Computing indicators related to climate protection, biodiversity and
economy
Intensive forest
management for
climate protection?
Extensive forest management aiming at
synergies between climate and nature
protection?
?

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Model structure and data
Forest vision │ Fern – Achieving the 1.5° target with forests │ Brussels │ 7. March 2018
Sub-models:
• Tree growth model
• Ingrowth model
• Mortality model
• Deadwood model
• Soil carbon model
• Sorting and classification
of wood products
Data source
• Forest inventories 2002
and 2012
• Simulation for >18.000 plots
FABio – Forestry and
Agriculture Biomass Model

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Scenarios and management settings
Base Scenario:
• Projection of existing conditions
Timber Scenario
• Support of coniferous trees
• Intensification of forest management (higher thinning and extraction
rates)
Forest vision
• Support of broadleaf trees
• Reduced management intensity and increased target diameters
• Additional protection of areas of rare natural forest communities
and old forests (16.6% instead of 4.1%)
Forest vision │ Fern – Achieving the 1.5° target with forests │ Brussels │ 7. March 2018

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Strong synergies btwn. climate and nature protection
– Carbon stock in forest living biomass –
CO2 storage in
woody biomass
(2012-2102)
48.2 Mio t CO2/a
(total*: 56.3)
17.2 Mio t CO2/a
(total*: 31.9)
1.4 Mio t CO2/a
(total*: 17.2)
Forest vision │ Fern – Achieving the 1.5° target with forests │ Brussels │ 7. March 2018
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
2012 2022 2032 2042 2052 2062 2072 2082 2092 2102
Carbonstockinforestliving
biomass[MtC]
Base Timber Forest vision
Accounting period (2021-2030):
● Base: 22 Mio t CO2/a  reference level
● Timber: debit of -16 Mio t CO2/a
● Forest vision: credit of + 28 Mio t CO2/a
* Including soil,
dead wood, HWP

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Strong synergy btwn. climate and nature protection
– Diameter classes –
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
BWI-32012
Base
Timber
Forestvision
Base
Timber
Forestvision
BWI-32012
Base
Timber
Forestvision
Base
Timber
Forestvision
2052 2102 2052 2102
Broadleaf Coniferous
Growingstock[Mm3]
090-999cm
080-090cm
070-080cm
060-070cm
050-060cm
040-050cm
030-040cm
020-030cm
010-020cm
007-010cm
old broadleaf
trees
=
important
habitats

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Wood supply
14% more
potential
harvest
BaseTimber Forest vision
Douglas firOther broadleaf Oak Larch FirBeech Spruce Pine
2010 2050 2100 2010 2050 21002010 2050 2100
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mm³
0
140
25% less potential
harvest
 mainly broadleaf
 spruce similar
Forest vision │ Fern – Achieving the 1.5° target with forests │ Brussels │ 7. March 2018

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Forest Visions’ take home messages
Strong synergies between climate and nature protection…
• More extensive forest management
• Maintained CO2 sink in forests and HWP
• Strong habitat improvements
…but not for free:
• 25% less wood supply
• Still high production of spruce wood (currently main source for
material use)
• Reduced availability of broadleaf wood (currently about 50% used
for direct energy wood)
 Needed: Significant increase in the efficiency of wood use through
more material and less direct energetic use
Forest vision │ Fern – Achieving the 1.5° target with forests │ Brussels │ 7. March 2018

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• May the support of direct use of wood for energy under the RED II
impair synergies between climate and nature protection?
EU Gross final energy
consumption (Mtoe)
Roundwood
equivalent (Mm3
)
Mean annual increment
of EU 28 (Mm³)
Heating and cooling
(mean 2020 and 2030)
513
Share additional renewable
energy (2030: 10%)
51,3 236 744
Heat pumps? Solar? Wood?
Hennenberg et al. (2017): https://www.oeko.de/publikationen/p-details/short-analysis-of-the-red-2009-the-iluc-directive-2015-
and-the-2016-red-proposal-regarding-implicat/
Urgent questions
• How large are potential substitution effects (problem of data availability
and reducing rates with higher decarbonisation in the future)?
today 2050 2100
1-2
ca. 0.5
? ?
Substitution effects
(kg CO2-eq / kg CO2 in wood)
Materials
Energy
Rüter et al. (2016)
Frühwald/Knauf (2013)

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Overall conclusion
Forest vision │ Fern – Achieving the 1.5° target with forests │ Brussels │ 7. March 2018
Nature
conservation
goals
Climate
protection
goals
Forest Vision
=+

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Thank you for your attention!
Dr. Hannes Böttcher
Senior Researcher
Project Coordination Forest Vision
Öko-Institut e.V.
Energie & Klimaschutz
Büro Berlin
Schicklerstraße 5-7
10179 Berlin
Telefon: +49 30 40 50 85-389
E-Mail: h.boettcher@oeko.de
Dr. Klaus Hennenberg
Senior Researcher
Öko-Institut e.V.
Energie & Klimaschutz
Büro Darmstadt
Rheinstraße 95
64295 Darmstadt
Telefon: +49 61 51 81 91-177
E-Mail: k.hennenberg@oeko.de
www.waldvision.de  interactive graphs, reports
Forest vision │ Fern – Achieving the 1.5° target with forests │ Brussels │ 7. March 2018