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The role of PtX in
meeting the 2 and well
below 2 °C mitigation
targets
1VTT 2018
Tiina Koljonen and Antti Lehtilä
VTT Tec...
2VTT 2018
1. Integrated bioeconomy and low carbon economy scenarios until 2050 for Finland
• Starting point: Forest covers...
3VTT 2018
1. Finnish case study
• Processes, where hydrogen is produced via electrolysis
• Hydrogen is used directly for e...
4VTT 2018
Finnish government’s targets and spearhead programmes:
Cost efficient transformation to carbon free, clean and r...
5VTT 2018
Baseline
Business as usual in structure of economy, industry
etc. Includes 2030 energy and climate targets.
Low ...
6VTT 2018
New forest sector products can double the value added of
forest sector
Textiles and hygiene
Resins, chemicals
Va...
7VTT 2018
Versatile renewable energy in Finland
Bioenergy transition Renewable energy transition
8VTT 2018
Share of electricity use to PtX starts to grow rapidly after 2040
0
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1...
9VTT 2018
Investments to P2X show the similar trend
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2020
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2020
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10VTT 2018
Pathways to Post-fossil Economy in a Well Below 2°C World
Lehtilä, A. & Koljonen, T. In: Lect.Notes Energy, Vol...
11VTT 2018
Both LCE and PFE scenarios find a solution for 1.5 °C target
GHG
CO2
-30
-20
-10
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2010...
12VTT 2018
In 1.5C-PFE solar becomes a dominant energy source
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1400
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 20...
13VTT 2018
With PtX the 1.5 °C mitigation target could be achieved with
reasonable costs
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50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
...
14VTT 2018
Also globally PtX seems to become important after 2050
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20
40
60
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120
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2020
2030
2040...
15VTT 2018
… and the same happens for the PtX investments
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16VTT 2018
PtX offers an important pathway for increasing the RES shares of all the energy
sectors, especially when fossil...
www.vttresearch.com
#vttpeople / @VTTFinland
A brighter future is created
through science-based innovations.
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The role of PtXin meeting the 2 and well below 2 °C mitigation targets

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The role of PtXin meeting the 2 and well below 2 °C mitigation targets

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The role of PtXin meeting the 2 and well below 2 °C mitigation targets

  1. 1. The role of PtX in meeting the 2 and well below 2 °C mitigation targets 1VTT 2018 Tiina Koljonen and Antti Lehtilä VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd. Regular IEA ETSAP workshop 18th June 2018, Gothenburg
  2. 2. 2VTT 2018 1. Integrated bioeconomy and low carbon economy scenarios until 2050 for Finland • Starting point: Forest covers a greater share of land in Finland than in any other European country • How to best utilize Finland’s biomass resources to increase sustainable growth of the Finnish economy and reduce GHG emissions 80-95 % by 2050 (compared with 1990 levels)? → The role of PtG and PtL in Finland to by 2050 2. Global pathways to post-fossil economy in a well below 2 degrees C world • Starting point: how to phase-out fossil fuels by 2100 and reach the 1.5 °C mitigation targets? → The role of PtG, PtL and PtX (e.g. hydrocarbon chemicals and other materials) → The role of DAC (direct air capture) to reach the 1.5 °C Two case studies
  3. 3. 3VTT 2018 1. Finnish case study • Processes, where hydrogen is produced via electrolysis • Hydrogen is used directly for energy of synthesized further to gaseous and liquid fuels by FT synthesis. Carbon is captured from prcess gases or other sources (e.g. CCU but no DAC) • In addition, hydrogen boosted FT-diesel from biomass is included 2. Global case study • All the above processes, but DAC included as an mitigation option in addition to CCU • Secondly, synthesis of chemicals and other materials, which are currently produced from fossil fuels are modelled (e.g. PtX with DAC and/or CCU) What do we mean with PtX?
  4. 4. 4VTT 2018 Finnish government’s targets and spearhead programmes: Cost efficient transformation to carbon free, clean and renewable energy Share of renewable energy over 50 % and energy self sufficiency over 50 % by 2030. Wood resources in use and new products from forests Diversify use of wood and increase value added. Make Finnish food production feasible and increase trade balance Promote domestic use and export of Finnish food products. Brake through of circular economy Increase recovery of nutrients by processing 50% of manure. Growth by integrating bioeconomy and low-carbon economy
  5. 5. 5VTT 2018 Baseline Business as usual in structure of economy, industry etc. Includes 2030 energy and climate targets. Low carbon scenario (CNS) Optimal GHG emission reduction pathway for Finland. No significant structural changes in industry, but optimistic new energy technology adaptation pathway. Bio economy scenario (BioEco) New bioeconomy products from forest and agriculture and optimal use of side streams and residues. No fossil-CCS, strict sustainability criteria for the use of biomass. Two alternative scenarios to reach low carbon targets by 2050
  6. 6. 6VTT 2018 New forest sector products can double the value added of forest sector Textiles and hygiene Resins, chemicals Value added pulp and paper products Plasticizers Replacing plastics
  7. 7. 7VTT 2018 Versatile renewable energy in Finland Bioenergy transition Renewable energy transition
  8. 8. 8VTT 2018 Share of electricity use to PtX starts to grow rapidly after 2040 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 4DS 2°C-CNS 2°C-BioEco Electricityuse(FIN),TWh Other use Power- to-X
  9. 9. 9VTT 2018 Investments to P2X show the similar trend 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 4DS 2°C-CNS 2°C-BioEcoP2XInvestments(FIN),GEUR Mainly hydrogen boosted FT diesel
  10. 10. 10VTT 2018 Pathways to Post-fossil Economy in a Well Below 2°C World Lehtilä, A. & Koljonen, T. In: Lect.Notes Energy, Vol. 64, George Giannakidis et al. (Eds): Limiting Global Warming to Well Below 2°C: Energy System Modelling and Policy Development
  11. 11. 11VTT 2018 Both LCE and PFE scenarios find a solution for 1.5 °C target GHG CO2 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 Baseline 1.5C-LCE 1.5C-PFE GHGemissions,GtCO2eq. FGS N2O CH4 CO2 DAC CCU FECCS BECCS Forestry
  12. 12. 12VTT 2018 In 1.5C-PFE solar becomes a dominant energy source 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Primaryenergy,EJ(PFE) Other Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Waste Bio Gas Oil Coal
  13. 13. 13VTT 2018 With PtX the 1.5 °C mitigation target could be achieved with reasonable costs 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 GHGprice,€(2015)/tonne(CO2eq.) € 450/t € 400/t € 350/t € 300/t € 250/t € 200/t 1.5C-LCE 1.5C-PFE
  14. 14. 14VTT 2018 Also globally PtX seems to become important after 2050 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 4DS 1.5C-LCE 1.5C-PFE Globalelectricityuse,PWh Other use Power- to-X
  15. 15. 15VTT 2018 … and the same happens for the PtX investments 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 4DS 1.5C-LCE 1.5C-PFE P2XInvestments,TEUR
  16. 16. 16VTT 2018 PtX offers an important pathway for increasing the RES shares of all the energy sectors, especially when fossil CCS and/or bioenergy are constrained Seasonal storage of RES with PtX would become essential with high RES shares Transformation to a post-fossil economy is extremely complicated A lot of work is required for more detailed modelling of power to chemicals and other materials It is possible that supply of certain metals and minerals would constrain the development of post-fossil economy Model and database development is underway – first results/case-studies will be ready by the end of this year Other PtX options, like food, and assessments of other sustainability dimensions need to be considered Water and other natural resources, land, acceptability, etc. Conclusions and next steps
  17. 17. www.vttresearch.com #vttpeople / @VTTFinland A brighter future is created through science-based innovations. Additional information: tiina.koljonen@vtt.fi

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