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Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU
Identification of vulnerable groups, impacts of carbon pricing and
compensation. Insights from the microsimulation model SEEK-EU.
Nelly Unger, Dr. Johanna Cludius
8th European User Conference for EU-Microdata
Mannheim, 17-03-2023
2
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Research Projects
• Facilitating Just Carbon Pricing in Central and Eastern Europe on behalf of the European Climate
Initiative of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK)
• Evaluation and further development of the EU ETS in the context of the amendment of the ETS
Directive and the European Green Deal with an economic focus on behalf of the German Emissions
Trading Authority (DEHSt)
3
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Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
Agenda
1 Motivation & Research Questions
2 Method & Data
3 Preliminary Findings
4 Outlook
4
www.oeko.de
ETS for buildings and road transport and the Social Climate Fund
• Agreement between the European Parliament and the Council of the EU in December 2022
• Set up of ETS-2 covering CO2 emissions from buildings and road transport not covered
by the EU ETS and starting 2027
• If the price of an allowance in ETS-2 rises above 45 EUR the market stability reserve will
be triggered until 2030
• Set up of the Social Climate Fund (SCF) to protect the vulnerable from excessive costs
• SCF can provide direct income support covering up to 37.5% of the total estimated cost
of each national plan min. 62.5% of financial support will be dedicated to investements
 With the Fit-for-55 package and the SCF there is now a policy requirement to define who
is vulnerable, measure how many vulnerable households there are and identify them for
policy implementation
Introduction
Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
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Research Questions
1. Who is affected and at what rate by
the introduction of a carbon price in
the buildings and road transport
sectors?
2. Who should be compensated
because they are most vulnerable?
3. How can the most vulnerable be
adequately compensated?
Research Questions
Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
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Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
Agenda
1 Motivation & Research Questions
2 Method & Data
3 Preliminary Findings
4 Outlook
7
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Model SEEK-EU
Method & Data
Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
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Selection of vulnerability indicators used in the analysis
Method & Data
Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
Type of
Indicator
Indicator Sector
Individual
indicator
2M - Household energy expenditure is higher than double the national median Buildings, road
transport
Low income – high costs (LIHC) - Household falls under the poverty threshold after
paying energy bills and share of energy expenses are higher that national median
Buildings, road
transport
Inability to keep home warm Buildings
Arrears on utility bills Buildings
Compound
indicator
Ability to keep home adequately warm x income Buildings
Acessability x (urbanisation) x income Road Transport
Regular use of public transport x income Road Transport
Policy
indicator
Income of traget groups e.g. below poverty line Buildings, road
transport
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Data Quality HBS & EU-SILC
Examples of problems and open questions:
• Missings versus zeroes
• Negative values for expenditure
• Aggregate expenditure category > sum of expenditure subcategories
• Expenditure as a proxy for quantities, e.g. transport fuels
• Data quality of income variables: HBS versus EU-SILC
• HBS 2015 versus HBS 2020 (Issues due to Covid)
Happy to discuss about these issues!
Method & Data
Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
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Example Data Quality 1: Expenditure based indicators (HBS 2015)
Method & Data
Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
COUNTRY
% zeroes for
transport fuels
% zeroes for
electricity
% zeroes for
net income
COUNTRY
% zeroes for
transport fuels
% zeroes for
electricity
% zeroes for
net income
BE 23.4 0.0 0.1 IE 26.8 6.8 0.0
BG 50.1 0.2 0.0 IT 26 2.0 100.0
CY 16.3 1.7 0.0 LT 56.5 0.6 0.0
CZ 20.3 3.1 0.0 LU 35.3 0 0.0
DE 17.4 100.0 0.0 LV 62.8 0.6 0.0
DK 39.8 1 0.0 MT (2010) 0.2 0.0
EE 59.9 5.1 0.0 NL 11.5 0 0.1
EL 35.7 0.1 0.0 PL 41 23.5 0.4
ES 37 1.6 0.3 PT (2010) 33.3 1.4 0.0
FI 43 0.1 0.0 RO 77.7 6.3 0.0
FR 56.6 3.7 0.5 SE 22.3 13.6 0.3
HR 34.2 1.1 0.0 SI (2010) 42.1 0.2 0.0
HU 52.6 0.3 0.1 SK 51.2 3.3 0.0
11
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Example Data Quality 2: Expenditure based indicators (HBS 2015)
Method & Data
Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
COUNTRY
Obs. with negative
values for transport
costs
Weighted HH with
negative values for
transport costs
COUNTRY
Obs. with negative
values for transport
costs
Weighted HH with
negative values for
transport costs
BE 0 0 IE 0 0
BG 0 0 IT 0 0
CY 0 0 LT 2 668
CZ 0 0 LU 0 0
DE 0 0 LV 6 1136
DK 20 27542 MT (2010) 0 0
EE 44 7604 NL 138 80280
EL 0 0 PL 0 0
ES 0 0 PT (2010) 0 0
FI 0 0 RO 0 0
FR 1 1775 SE 32 37433
HR 0 0 SI (2010) 0 0
HU 0 0 SK 0 0
12
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Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
Agenda
1 Motivation & Research Questions
2 Method & Data
3 Preliminary Findings
4 Outlook
13
www.oeko.de
Research Questions
1. Who is affected and at what rate by
the introduction of a carbon price in
the buildings and road transport
sectors?
2. Who should be compensated
because they are most vulnerable?
3. How can the most vulnerable be
adequately compensated?
Preliminary Findings
Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
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Share of households vulnerable related to the consumption of
electricity and heat
Preliminary Findings
Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
Source: Own calculation based on the EU HBS data, year 2015, for the 2M-indicator and the LIHC indicator and based on the EU SILC data, year 2019, for the indicator
looking at the inability to keep the home warm and the indicator looking at arrears on utility bills; HBS data missing for Italy and Austria; Vulnerability displayed as share of
households.
● Different
indicators
measure
different aspects
of vulnerability
● Share of
vulnerable HH
varies
depending on
indicator used
● Share of self-
reported
vulnerability
tends to be
higher in lower
income
countries
15
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Share of households vulnerable related to mobility
Preliminary Findings
Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
Source: Own calculation based on the EU HBS data, year 2015; HBS data missing for Italy and Austria; Vulnerability displayed as share of households.
● High variation
in the share of
vulnerable HH
depending on
the indicator
used
● Share of
vulnerable HH
tends to be
higher in lower
income
countries when
using the 2M-
Indicator
16
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The relationship between vulnerability and regional characteristics
using the LIHC-Indicator for the sector energy/heat
Preliminary Findings
Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
Source: Own calculation based on the EU HBS data, year 2015; Data missing for Italy and Austria; Vulnerability measured using the Low Income – High Cost Indicator for
the sector energy/heat and displayed as share households; Regional characteristics inside vulnerable groups displayed for each EU member state.
● Population
density as a
proxy for the
degree of
urbanization
● Being
vulnerable is
often
connected to
living in rural
areas (other
factors should
also be
considered)
17
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The relationship between vulnerability and regional characteristics using
the LIHC-Indicator for the transport sector
Preliminary Findings
Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
Source: Own calculation based on the EU HBS data, year 2015; Data missing for Italy and Austria; Vulnerability measured using the Low Income – High Cost Indicator for the
transport sector and displayed as share households; Regional characteristics inside vulnerable groups displayed for each EU member state.
● Population
density as a
proxy for the
degree of
urbanization
● Being
vulnerable is
often
connected to
living in rural
areas (other
factors should
also be
considered)
18
www.oeko.de
Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
Agenda
1 Motivation & Research Questions
2 Method & Data
3 Preliminary Findings
4 Outlook
19
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Next steps
• Discussion on individual indicators versus compound indicators for the
identification of the share of households vulnerable
• Comparison of the impact of the introduction of a carbon price using different
vulnerability indicators
• Calculation of the investment needs if the most vulnerable determined in the
previous analysis are to be compensated
• Comparison of the investment needs to other compensation options such as a
lump-sum per capita rebate considering the proposed distribution of funds
from the SCF
Outlook
Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
www.oeko.de
Thank you for your attention!
Do you have any questions?
?
21
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Ongoing and completed work at Oeko-Institut related to vulnerability
indicators
• Transport poverty: definition, indicators, determinants and mitigation strategies on behalf of the European
Commission (Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion)
• Facilitating Just Carbon Pricing in Central and Eastern Europe on behalf of the European Climate Initiative of the
German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK)
• Evaluation and further development of the EU ETS in the context of the amendment of the ETS Directive and the
European Green Deal with an economic focus on behalf of the German Emissions Trading Authority (DEHSt)
• Study on shifting public spending from compensatory mechanisms on domestic energy use to short-term energy
efficiency and renewable energy measures on behalf of the European Climate Foundation (ECF)
• Policy brief: Supporting households in the energy price crisis: A comparative analysis of approaches in Germany,
Poland and Romania: https://www.oeko.de/fileadmin/oekodoc/EUKI-Policy-Brief-Supporting-Households-in-the-
Energy-Price-Crisis.pdf
• Energy Affordability: Sharing Lessons from the EU and Australia’s Low Carbon Transitions:
https://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/documents/energy-affordability-sharing-lessons
• The Social Climate Fund – Opportunities and Challenges for the buildings sector:
https://www.oeko.de/fileadmin/oekodoc/ECF_Social_Climate_Fund.pdf
Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
22
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Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
Contact
Nelly Unger
Researcher
Oeko-Institut e.V.
Office Berlin
Borkumstraße 2
D-13189 Berlin
mail: n.unger@oeko.de

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Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU - Identification of vulnerable groups, impacts of carbon pricing and compensation. Insights from the microsimulation model SEEK-EU

  • 1. www.oeko.de Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU Identification of vulnerable groups, impacts of carbon pricing and compensation. Insights from the microsimulation model SEEK-EU. Nelly Unger, Dr. Johanna Cludius 8th European User Conference for EU-Microdata Mannheim, 17-03-2023
  • 2. 2 www.oeko.de Research Projects • Facilitating Just Carbon Pricing in Central and Eastern Europe on behalf of the European Climate Initiative of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) • Evaluation and further development of the EU ETS in the context of the amendment of the ETS Directive and the European Green Deal with an economic focus on behalf of the German Emissions Trading Authority (DEHSt)
  • 3. 3 www.oeko.de Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023 Agenda 1 Motivation & Research Questions 2 Method & Data 3 Preliminary Findings 4 Outlook
  • 4. 4 www.oeko.de ETS for buildings and road transport and the Social Climate Fund • Agreement between the European Parliament and the Council of the EU in December 2022 • Set up of ETS-2 covering CO2 emissions from buildings and road transport not covered by the EU ETS and starting 2027 • If the price of an allowance in ETS-2 rises above 45 EUR the market stability reserve will be triggered until 2030 • Set up of the Social Climate Fund (SCF) to protect the vulnerable from excessive costs • SCF can provide direct income support covering up to 37.5% of the total estimated cost of each national plan min. 62.5% of financial support will be dedicated to investements  With the Fit-for-55 package and the SCF there is now a policy requirement to define who is vulnerable, measure how many vulnerable households there are and identify them for policy implementation Introduction Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
  • 5. 5 www.oeko.de Research Questions 1. Who is affected and at what rate by the introduction of a carbon price in the buildings and road transport sectors? 2. Who should be compensated because they are most vulnerable? 3. How can the most vulnerable be adequately compensated? Research Questions Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
  • 6. 6 www.oeko.de Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023 Agenda 1 Motivation & Research Questions 2 Method & Data 3 Preliminary Findings 4 Outlook
  • 7. 7 www.oeko.de Model SEEK-EU Method & Data Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
  • 8. 8 www.oeko.de Selection of vulnerability indicators used in the analysis Method & Data Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023 Type of Indicator Indicator Sector Individual indicator 2M - Household energy expenditure is higher than double the national median Buildings, road transport Low income – high costs (LIHC) - Household falls under the poverty threshold after paying energy bills and share of energy expenses are higher that national median Buildings, road transport Inability to keep home warm Buildings Arrears on utility bills Buildings Compound indicator Ability to keep home adequately warm x income Buildings Acessability x (urbanisation) x income Road Transport Regular use of public transport x income Road Transport Policy indicator Income of traget groups e.g. below poverty line Buildings, road transport
  • 9. 9 www.oeko.de Data Quality HBS & EU-SILC Examples of problems and open questions: • Missings versus zeroes • Negative values for expenditure • Aggregate expenditure category > sum of expenditure subcategories • Expenditure as a proxy for quantities, e.g. transport fuels • Data quality of income variables: HBS versus EU-SILC • HBS 2015 versus HBS 2020 (Issues due to Covid) Happy to discuss about these issues! Method & Data Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
  • 10. 10 www.oeko.de Example Data Quality 1: Expenditure based indicators (HBS 2015) Method & Data Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023 COUNTRY % zeroes for transport fuels % zeroes for electricity % zeroes for net income COUNTRY % zeroes for transport fuels % zeroes for electricity % zeroes for net income BE 23.4 0.0 0.1 IE 26.8 6.8 0.0 BG 50.1 0.2 0.0 IT 26 2.0 100.0 CY 16.3 1.7 0.0 LT 56.5 0.6 0.0 CZ 20.3 3.1 0.0 LU 35.3 0 0.0 DE 17.4 100.0 0.0 LV 62.8 0.6 0.0 DK 39.8 1 0.0 MT (2010) 0.2 0.0 EE 59.9 5.1 0.0 NL 11.5 0 0.1 EL 35.7 0.1 0.0 PL 41 23.5 0.4 ES 37 1.6 0.3 PT (2010) 33.3 1.4 0.0 FI 43 0.1 0.0 RO 77.7 6.3 0.0 FR 56.6 3.7 0.5 SE 22.3 13.6 0.3 HR 34.2 1.1 0.0 SI (2010) 42.1 0.2 0.0 HU 52.6 0.3 0.1 SK 51.2 3.3 0.0
  • 11. 11 www.oeko.de Example Data Quality 2: Expenditure based indicators (HBS 2015) Method & Data Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023 COUNTRY Obs. with negative values for transport costs Weighted HH with negative values for transport costs COUNTRY Obs. with negative values for transport costs Weighted HH with negative values for transport costs BE 0 0 IE 0 0 BG 0 0 IT 0 0 CY 0 0 LT 2 668 CZ 0 0 LU 0 0 DE 0 0 LV 6 1136 DK 20 27542 MT (2010) 0 0 EE 44 7604 NL 138 80280 EL 0 0 PL 0 0 ES 0 0 PT (2010) 0 0 FI 0 0 RO 0 0 FR 1 1775 SE 32 37433 HR 0 0 SI (2010) 0 0 HU 0 0 SK 0 0
  • 12. 12 www.oeko.de Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023 Agenda 1 Motivation & Research Questions 2 Method & Data 3 Preliminary Findings 4 Outlook
  • 13. 13 www.oeko.de Research Questions 1. Who is affected and at what rate by the introduction of a carbon price in the buildings and road transport sectors? 2. Who should be compensated because they are most vulnerable? 3. How can the most vulnerable be adequately compensated? Preliminary Findings Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
  • 14. 14 www.oeko.de Share of households vulnerable related to the consumption of electricity and heat Preliminary Findings Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023 Source: Own calculation based on the EU HBS data, year 2015, for the 2M-indicator and the LIHC indicator and based on the EU SILC data, year 2019, for the indicator looking at the inability to keep the home warm and the indicator looking at arrears on utility bills; HBS data missing for Italy and Austria; Vulnerability displayed as share of households. ● Different indicators measure different aspects of vulnerability ● Share of vulnerable HH varies depending on indicator used ● Share of self- reported vulnerability tends to be higher in lower income countries
  • 15. 15 www.oeko.de Share of households vulnerable related to mobility Preliminary Findings Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023 Source: Own calculation based on the EU HBS data, year 2015; HBS data missing for Italy and Austria; Vulnerability displayed as share of households. ● High variation in the share of vulnerable HH depending on the indicator used ● Share of vulnerable HH tends to be higher in lower income countries when using the 2M- Indicator
  • 16. 16 www.oeko.de The relationship between vulnerability and regional characteristics using the LIHC-Indicator for the sector energy/heat Preliminary Findings Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023 Source: Own calculation based on the EU HBS data, year 2015; Data missing for Italy and Austria; Vulnerability measured using the Low Income – High Cost Indicator for the sector energy/heat and displayed as share households; Regional characteristics inside vulnerable groups displayed for each EU member state. ● Population density as a proxy for the degree of urbanization ● Being vulnerable is often connected to living in rural areas (other factors should also be considered)
  • 17. 17 www.oeko.de The relationship between vulnerability and regional characteristics using the LIHC-Indicator for the transport sector Preliminary Findings Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023 Source: Own calculation based on the EU HBS data, year 2015; Data missing for Italy and Austria; Vulnerability measured using the Low Income – High Cost Indicator for the transport sector and displayed as share households; Regional characteristics inside vulnerable groups displayed for each EU member state. ● Population density as a proxy for the degree of urbanization ● Being vulnerable is often connected to living in rural areas (other factors should also be considered)
  • 18. 18 www.oeko.de Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023 Agenda 1 Motivation & Research Questions 2 Method & Data 3 Preliminary Findings 4 Outlook
  • 19. 19 www.oeko.de Next steps • Discussion on individual indicators versus compound indicators for the identification of the share of households vulnerable • Comparison of the impact of the introduction of a carbon price using different vulnerability indicators • Calculation of the investment needs if the most vulnerable determined in the previous analysis are to be compensated • Comparison of the investment needs to other compensation options such as a lump-sum per capita rebate considering the proposed distribution of funds from the SCF Outlook Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
  • 20. www.oeko.de Thank you for your attention! Do you have any questions? ?
  • 21. 21 www.oeko.de Ongoing and completed work at Oeko-Institut related to vulnerability indicators • Transport poverty: definition, indicators, determinants and mitigation strategies on behalf of the European Commission (Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion) • Facilitating Just Carbon Pricing in Central and Eastern Europe on behalf of the European Climate Initiative of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) • Evaluation and further development of the EU ETS in the context of the amendment of the ETS Directive and the European Green Deal with an economic focus on behalf of the German Emissions Trading Authority (DEHSt) • Study on shifting public spending from compensatory mechanisms on domestic energy use to short-term energy efficiency and renewable energy measures on behalf of the European Climate Foundation (ECF) • Policy brief: Supporting households in the energy price crisis: A comparative analysis of approaches in Germany, Poland and Romania: https://www.oeko.de/fileadmin/oekodoc/EUKI-Policy-Brief-Supporting-Households-in-the- Energy-Price-Crisis.pdf • Energy Affordability: Sharing Lessons from the EU and Australia’s Low Carbon Transitions: https://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/documents/energy-affordability-sharing-lessons • The Social Climate Fund – Opportunities and Challenges for the buildings sector: https://www.oeko.de/fileadmin/oekodoc/ECF_Social_Climate_Fund.pdf Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023
  • 22. 22 www.oeko.de Facilitating Socially Just Carbon Pricing in the EU│Nelly Unger│Mannheim│17-03-2023 Contact Nelly Unger Researcher Oeko-Institut e.V. Office Berlin Borkumstraße 2 D-13189 Berlin mail: n.unger@oeko.de