The aim of the study is to promote ways to reach the goals of the carbon neutrality at the South Savo region in eastern Finland by examining the solutions for emission reductions and forest use. The study has taken the first step for reaching the cost-effective carbon neutrality at the regional level in Finland. The carbon dioxide neutral region means that the region's internal activity does not change the carbon content of the atmosphere. The carbon neutral society produces just as much carbon emissions as it can bind from the atmosphere. The study started by updating the regional energy balance and its carbon influence. Second, the carbon impact on forest use was measured. Finally, the cost-efficiency of alternative carbon neutrality solutions will be estimated. The study will be carried out by combining alternative emission reduction solutions and forest management simulations with computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling. Permanent National Forest Inventory plots were used as an input of forest management simulations. Then, applying a modified CGE model (RegFinDyn), the economic and emission impacts of alternative carbon balance solutions will be assessed at the regional level. Earlier results have shown that a more intensive use of forests decreases the carbon sequestration potential but increases the regional socio-economic benefits. The carbon balance should be compensated either for emission reduction solutions or by controlling the use of forests. It is important to choose the solutions which are not only the emission efficient but also cost-efficient at the regional level.

1. Kalle Karttunen, Senior Researcher (D.Sc. Agr. & For.)
LUT University
Lappeenranta – Lahti University of Technology LUT
LUT School of Energy Systems
Bioenergy Laboratory
Session:
Biomass strategies and policies
European strategies for Biomass Utilisation
Wednesday, 29 May 2019
Room: ROOM 5C
08:30 - 10:00
THE REGIONAL CARBON FREEDOM
BY REDUCING EMISSIONS AND DEVELOPING
SUSTAINABLE FOREST USE IN FINLAND

2. Background
Carbon freedom
Regional modeling
Energy sector & forest use
Material and methods
Scenarios and study questions
Emission balance
Results
Regional energy balance and emissions
Regional forest carbon sink and storage
(BAU)
Regional carbon balance
Conclusion
Content
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3. The carbon freedom means
that the region's internal activity
does not change the carbon
content of the atmosphere
(carbon neutrality)
Two ways to achieve carbon
freedom:
(1) Reduce emissions
(2) Increase carbon sinks
Background
Carbon freedom
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(1)(2)

4. Project case of ”Carbon free South Savo”:
Rural area: 3 cities and 11 municipalities
Population: 147 194 (2017), Surface area: 19 130 km2, Gross Domestic
Product (GDP): 4.5 billion €
Forest sector (forestry and industry) accouts straight 13% of total GDP and
over 20% with multiplier effects
Economy modeling (Earlier co-operation project)
Karttunen et al. 2017. Impact of alternative forest biomass demand and supply
scenarios on regional economy in Finland. 25th European Biomass Conference
and Exhibition. 978-88-89407-17-2. Doi: 10.5071/25thEUBCE2017-4AV.1.28
Economy + emission modeling (This co-operation project)…
Background
Regional modeling
4
South Savo region
GDP development with alternative
forest industry investments

5. Energy sector is the largest source of emissions globally, nationally and also regionally
GLOBAL: The energy sector is responsible for more than 60% of the global
greenhouse gas emissions (IEA 2015). Heat and electricity production accounts for
25% in global C02 eq. (IPCC 2018)
NATIONAL (Finland): Energy sector covers 74% of total CO2 eq. (Stat 2017)
REGIONAL (South Savo) emissions of energy production has covered about 75% of
total emissions
South Savo has the largest forest resources and the importance of forestry in Finland
Forest production land covers 88% of land surface area, total wood volume is 180
M.m3, wood growth 9 M.m3, from which the annual wood supply 7 M.m3, and
demand 3 M.m3
There are plenty of small or heavy saw and plywood mills using saw logs
Still over half of wood material, pulp wood, goes outside of region =
Many power and heat plants are using forest biomass for energy purposes at the region
Totally over 60 heating plants
Use of wood fuels (1.6 M.m3) has been about 40% of total energy production
Forest chips (0.4 M.m3) about 10% of total energy production
Background
Energy sector & forest use
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6. Difference between forest growth and removal is important part of renewable energies and wood
products
Forest are important part of LULUCF national climate actions, if it releases more carbon than it
sinks, it should be compensated or bought emission allowances
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Background
Energy sector & forest use
Growth, South Savo
Removal, South Savo
Growth, Finland
Removal, Finland
South Savo, M.m3/a Finland, M.m3/a
2016
Average cutting level
7.3 M.m3 (2015-2017)
Average cutting level
61 M.m3 (2015-2017)

7. 7
Year 2017:
Emissions 55.5
million tons CO2
eq.
Forest carbon
sink -27 million
tons CO2 eq.
(Net carbon sink
”LULUCF” -20
million tons CO2
eq.)
Development carbon sink of forest land use development with the highest sustainable
cutting (ca. 85 M.m3)
Million tons of CO2 eq.
Sink increases
Soil, peat lands
(emission)
Soil, mineral
lands (sink)
Biomass (sink)
Net carbon sink
Background
Energy sector & forest use

8. Our project will study following scenarios:
Project study question: What are the most potential ways for emission
reduction cost-efficiently to receive regional carbon freedom?
In this presentation study question: How much do we need to cut regional
emissions of energy sector (1) or sequestrate carbon back to forest (2) to
receive carbon freedom?
In this study we will present following main results:
1. Regional energy balance and emissions
2. Regional forest carbon storage (BAU)
3. Regional emission balance development
Material and methods
Scenarios and study questions
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Project scenarios:
Business as usual (BAU)
1. SCE: Economy first
2. SCE: Climate first
3. SCE: Cost and emission
efficient solutions

9. Material and methods
…Economy and emission modeling…
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Emissions
Timber
(3)
Forest
and
energy
sector
Forest
carbon
sink
Pajernee et al. 2016. A Conceptual Framework for
Integrated Economic–Environmental Modeling
(1)(2)
(1) Emission has been usually reported on national level but
regional specific emission analysis needs expertise…
All power plants with their primary energy sources was
analysed…
Electricity import and road traffic was applied from national
statistics to the regional level
(2) Forest carbon sinks can be measured by using forest
management and soil tools:
Motti forest management simulator
YASSO soil carbon model
(3) Economy modeling that take emission balance into account
University of Helsinki (RegFinDyn) Computable General
Equilibrium CGE model has been used in many context to
regional economy modeling
Model is based on sector statistics (input/output models)
Model must be developed for emission measurement
Future development forecasts needs modelling…
Could this be applied other regions by using for example
EU statistics (using emission trade powerplant statistics) ?

10. Material and methods
Regional emission balance
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INPUT OUTPUT
Energy production:
Primary energy sources
Energy comsumption:
Heat, electricity, losses & transportation

11. Regional energy balance of South Savo has been measured several times
Regional energy balance informs how much energy is produced and used at the specific region
Total energy use 7.1 TWh, of which the share of renewable energy 51%
Wood fuels covers 41% of total primary energy sources
In this study we measured regional emission balance according to the regional energy production and use
The conversion factors were used to change the use of primary energy sources to the emissions
Regional energy sector emissions were 925 kt CO2 eq.
TOP3 emissions: 1. Road traffic, 2. Electricity import 3. Light fuel
Results
Regional energy and emission balance
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12. There were totally 14 municipalities/cities at
region which emissions can be separated
There are still high emission reduction potential:
Private sector (TOP3 emissions):
1. Road traffic emissions were the highest
2. Electricity import has emissions
especially in municipalities that are out of
own electricity production
3. Light fuel has stayed at the same (used in
small heating and machines)
Public sector:
Peat emissions will be replaced by biofuels
by 2035
There is no coal use anymore and very little
heavy fuel use (2019)
Results
Regional energy sector emissions
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13. Road traffic emissions
Total 398 kt CO2 eq. road traffic emissions in 2017 at South Savo
were 43% from all energy sector emissions
Share of Mikkeli city/municipality area covers one third and 30% of
road traffic emissions
Over half (52%) of the emissions are from cars and 35% from trucks
(even the number of trucks is only 2% of all)
Total 131 000 registered vehicles at South Savo
• Private cars are the biggest part of vehicles (about 80 000)
• Over half of the cars are more than 10 years old
Almost all are gasoline and diesel cars, only few electric and biogas
cars!
Solutions:
• Fuel plending is one good and fast way to drop road traffic
emissions (Neste My Diesel), EU target 30% by 2030
• Biogas is a local solution (http://ecosairila.fi/,
https://www.biohauki.fi/)
• Other solutions is also needed for subsidies for electric cars
etc.
More information: 4BV.6.18
KC, Karttunen & Ranta. The Study of Potential Carbon Neutral South-
Savo Region in Finland by 2030.
Results
Regional energy sector emissions
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14. Past decade the consumption of light fuel oil has not decreased
as much as predicted at the region of South Savo
From 0.7 TWh (2006) to 0.6 TWh (2017)
Causes annually 165 kt CO2 eq. emissions
There are about 9 000 light fuel oil heated separate buildings
at South Savo
Detached and semi-detached houses cover most of the
consumption in the region
Solutions:
Renewable, such as biomass, solar, geothermal
Regional funding instruments could be developed
More information: 4BV.6.10.
Karhunen, Laihanen & Ranta. Replacing oil based heating
by domestic biofuels.
Results
Regional energy sector emissions
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15. The share of electricity import emissions was 20% of energy
sector
Electricity emissions are usually based on national electricity
production
The share of renewable sources from electricity import
2017, 47%
Solutions:
In national level bigger coastal cities produce CHP
electricity by coal, which will be stopped by 2029
Nuclear power has been increased in Finland
Electricity import could be replace with more renewable
share of own region
Consumer can choose whatever electricity production
they want to pay and use via electricity net!
Results
Regional energy sector emissions
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Enonkoski
1 %
Hirvensalmi
2 %
Joroinen
5 %
Juva
5 %
Kangasniemi
4 %
Mikkeli
33 %
Mäntyharju
7 %
Pertunmaa
2 %
Pieksämäki
11 %
Puumala
2 %
Rantasalmi
3 %
Savonlinna
23 %
Sulkava
2 %
Heinävesi
0 %
Electricity import emissions at South Savo in
2017 (181 kt CO2-ekv.)

16. Preliminary results presented the regional
change of forest carbon development during the
simulation period (2013-2038)
BAU “preliminary” results:
Forest carbon sink for scenario with current
high cutting level (7.3 M.m3) and “base”
silviculture level will vary close to the zero
Forest would be still a carbon sink in the
long-run at region of South Savo
Current forest carbon storage (wood carbon
of living trees) is massive compared to the
emissions or sinks (under 1%)
Other scenarios will be studied as
solutions…
Results
Forest carbon sink and storage (BAU)
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Forest carbon storage
Forest carbon sink

17. 17
Results
Regional carbon balance
- Carbon balance (emission – carbon sink)
is worse than earlier, because of more
intensive forest cutting level
- Controlling and targets are important!
- However forest can still cover the emissions
if those goes as the same speed
Studies:
- 1990, 1992 1999 (estimates)
- Green house gas emissions 2005, 2010
(Koponen 2012)
- Land sector carbon sink 2008-2010 (Monni
2012) -> here wood carbon, if soil and peat
land included (-200 kt CO2)
- 2006, 2015 and 2017: Energy sector
emission (LUT, 2008, 2017 and 2019)
- 2013-2038: Wood carbon sink (LUKE, 2019)
-> here wood carbon 2013-2038 divided for
years of 5 year simulation periods

18. Why are the regional actions important for emission reduction?
NOT because of importance of global emission reduction (Finland covers only 0.15% of global emissions and
South Savo region only 2% of Finnish emissions)
YES because WE CAN be trailblazers, create “cleantech” business and increase regional co-operation.
• It may increase regional income and decrease costs in the long-run if we make wise decisions.
The study showed that even though the regional emissions have been decreased recently, the forest carbon sink and
storage has developed oppositely
The overall carbon balance is the important tool for the regional carbon controlling
What can be done by public and private sector? What are the most cost efficient solutions with the lowest cost?
Solutions for regional cost-efficient emission reductions
(1) Emission reduction (min.80%): Electricity import: More local renewable electricity (CHP, solar);
Transportation: Fuel blending, biogas, electricity; Separate house heating (light fuel): wood biomass, geothermal
heat, batteries, solar etc.
(2) Forest carbon sink and storage: Activate forest owners to manage forest, increase forest growth and carbon
storages, create forest carbon market etc.
• Other compensation or carbon emission allowances are possible (max.20%)
“Carbon free South Savo” project
We will find out the main cost-efficient emission reduction solutions for regional carbon freedom 2030-2040 and
establish “the Regional Climate Group” to control the emission development
Conclusion
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19. More information, please follow the project:
https://www.researchgate.net/project/Carbon-free-South-Savo
More information about the regional economy modeling of forest and
energy sector:
Karttunen, K., Ahtikoski, A., Kujala, S., Törmä, H., Kinnunen, J., Salminen, H., Huuskonen, S.,
Kojola, S., Lehtonen, M., Hynynen, J., Ranta, T. Regional socio-economic impacts of intensive
forest management, a CGE approach. Biomass and Bioenergy, Volume 118, 2018, Pages 8-15,
ISSN 0961-9534. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2018.07.024
Contact information:
Kalle.Karttunen@lut.fi
LUT University, School of Energy Systems, Bioenergy laboratory
https://www.lut.fi/web/en/lut-savo/laboratory-of-bioenergy
Thank you for your attention!
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