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Flood risk assessment: Introduction and examples.
- 1. Water Resources ResearchInstitute email: wrri@wrri.org.eg Web: www.wrri.org.eg Eng. Ahmed Adel Saleh email: norahmed1@gmail.com F.B. | https://www.facebook.com/ahmed.a.saleh.965
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- 4. Definitions Hazard • Events thathave the potential to cause Losses Vulnerability • The Potential for harm by disasters Risk • Product of the probability of a hazardous event and its consequence
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- 6. Causes of damfailures EarthquakeLandslideFoundation failure Equipment malfunction
- 7. WHY FLOODS AREDANGEROUS ON HUMAN LIVES?
- 8. WHY FLOODS AREDANGEROUS ON HUMAN LIVES, PROPERTIES, AND ENVIRONMENT?...
- 9. WHY FLOODS AREDANGEROUS ON HUMAN LIVES, PROPERTIES, AND ENVIRONMENT?...
- 10. WHY FLOODS AREDANGEROUS ON HUMAN LIVES, PROPERTIES, AND ENVIRONMENT?...
- 11. WHY FLOODS AREDANGEROUS ON HUMAN LIVES, PROPERTIES, AND ENVIRONMENT?...
- 12. Vulnerability Dimensions Social Economical Ecological Levels of coping Individual /personal CommunityRegional Administrative/ institutional Structural Losses Interruption of business Death Injuries Property damage Agricultural losses
- 13. Age Dependency on thegovernment Experience Education access to transportation degree of home ownership or renters special needs Social dimension
- 14. Types of buildings(residential, commercial, industrial, etc.) Infrastructures and critical sites ( schools, hospitals, emergency services, etc.) local building codes, zoning regulations, flood control programs and structures, etc.) Urbanization ongoing expansion Economic Activities (Unemployment, taxes, etc.) Structural & Economic dimension
- 15. Availability of freshwater resources Climate Change impact of flood frequency Rare species, Nature reserves, etc. Environmental or Natural
- 16. Definitions…(2) Hazards identification • specifyinformation on the nature and characteristics of the hazardous event and the community Hazards Analysis • knowing what could happen, the likelihood of it, and having some idea of the extent of the problems that could arise Vulnerability analysis • measuring of a community’s tendency to incur (physical, political, economic, and social) losses Risk analysis • assessment of the probability of a hazardous event and the consequences that might occur to the vulnerable items
- 17. Definitions…(3) RISK/RELIABILITY-BASED ENGINEERINGDESIGN Cost of protection Losses of damages Appropriate level of protection
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- 19. CONTENTS Risk analysisprocess Risk Matrix Hazard-vulnerability function Applications Conclusions and recommendations
- 20. Where flood riskanalysis is necessary? Historical information (human memory, chronicles etc.) Meteorological and hydrological data Analysis of potential breakdowns of hydro- technological sites Watershed’s outlet
- 21. Hazards analysis process Hazards identification •Identify hazards • Location • Quantity of chemical • Nature of hazards Vulnerability analysis • Vulnerability zone • Human populations • Critical facilities • Environment Risk analysis • Likelihood of incident • Severity • Consequences
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- 25. measuring of acommunity’s propensity to incur (physical, political, economic, and social) losses Exposure • Population • Economy • Natural resources • Agriculture production • Infrastrucure • Value of natural landscape • Experience • Climate change • social or cultural values Resistance • Political will • Economic incentives • Use of technology • Infrastructure hardening • Restoration of natural resource base • Social cohesion Vulnerability analysis
- 26. a variable providesinformation Vulnerability analysis - Indicators Measurable Simplicity • clearly reflects • Understandable Data quality • reliable sources Sensitivity • Timely related Validity • Accurate • verifiable Achievable • Data Sources • cost effective
- 27. Indicators examples Social • lowerincomes (%of <1000 L.E/month) • Age (% > 65; %<13 years) • Disabled (% of population) • Female (alone, households, single mothers) (% of population) • Homelessness, minorities, illiterates (% of population) • Few vehicles (#/1000 c) Economic • Employment loss (#) • business sales or taxes reduction ($) • Tourist Occupancy losses (#) • Damages repairing costs
- 28. the determination ofthe likelihood of a disaster and possible consequences. Identifying community vulnerability indicators the probability of the hazard occurring Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
- 29. Significant None Minor First aidor minor medical treatment, little or no impact to the community Moderate Minor injuries, lost workday accident, minor system damage, minor property damage, and some community disruption Major Permanent partial disability, temporary disability in excess of 3 months, major or significant property damage, Significant disruption Catastrophic Death or permanent and total disability, Major or significant property damage, failure or complete community trouble Chance of occurring in a given year Certain >99% Likely 50%–99% Possible 5%–49% Unlikely 2%–5% Rare 1%–2% Extremely rare <1% Risk Analysis
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- 32. Hazard-vulnerability function Damage Hazardinformation Vulnerability Building content Flood depth (and duration) Financial Building construction Flood velocity (and duration) Building resistance Human beings Flood depth and Flood velocity Human physical resistance Vehicle Flood depth and Flood velocity Vehicle resistance Human body health Contaminations Human body resistance
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- 34. Crops’ flood hazardmapping - Bangladesh Frequency analysis water level DEM Flood Depth Crops maps Flood Hazard Maps satellite images Landuse map Land cover map Vulnerability Hazard damage functions Cost Estimation
- 35. Estimation ofprobable maximum flood Development of Dam break simulation model using MIKE 11 Flood hazard assessment Assessing flooding hazards on a proposed industrial plant/site is northern India
- 36. the Flood Protectionof the City of Dahab
- 37. Experiments to testmathematical models results Testa, G., et all, 2007. Flash flood flow experiment in a simplified urban district. J. Hydraul. Res. 45, 37–44
- 38. Bending moments Shearforces Simulating flood risk vulnerability of buildings Mazzorana, B., 2014. A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability of buildings. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.
- 39. Developing new criterionfor the stability of a human body in flood waters Xia, J., et all., 2014. New criterion for the stability of a human body in floodwaters. J. Hydraul. Res. 52, 93–104
- 40. Better estimation ofrisk and damages Yamaguchi, Satoshi, et al. "Development of GIS-based flood-simulation software and application to flood-risk assessment." Second IMA International Conference on Flood Risk Assessment. 2007.
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- 42. Conclusions Hazards analysisis not an isolated process but ongoing one that engages the local community. Risk communication, citizen participation, risk management, and ongoing assessment are all parts of comprehensive emergency management.
- 43. Recommendations Data collecting(surveys, questioners, Develop risk assessment models. Develop Evacuation plans Develop Community Resilience plans Provide Risks Communicating tools
- 44. References Pine, J.,2015. Hazards analysis : reducing the impact of disasters. Joern, Birkmann. Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: towards disaster resilient societies. United Nations University Press, 2006. Natale, E., 2009. Dam Break Risk Assessment in Baker Valley (Chilean Patagonia). Voortman, H. G., Van Gelder, P. H. A. J. M., & Vrijling, J. K. (2002). Risk- based design of large-scale flood defence systems. Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences. Tung, Yeou-Koung. "Risk/reliability-based hydraulic engineering design." L. May (1999): 1-56.
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