This presentations explains the main definitions related to flood risk management. and how to assess the Vulnerability of the society towards flood dangers. and flood risk analysis process. and gives some examples of flood risk assessment applications.

1. Water Resources Research Institute
email: wrri@wrri.org.eg
Web: www.wrri.org.eg
Eng. Ahmed Adel Saleh
email: norahmed1@gmail.com
F.B. | https://www.facebook.com/ahmed.a.saleh.965

2. CONTENTS
01
Introduction
Risk analysis process
02
Examples
03
Ending
04

3. 01
Introduction

4. Definitions
Hazard
• Events that have the potential to cause
Losses
Vulnerability
• The Potential for harm by disasters
Risk
• Product of the probability of a hazardous
event and its consequence

5. Hazards
Sources
Natural
human
Measured By
Rain
Hurricane
Earthquake
Wars
Terrorism
Velocity FrequencyDepth Area

6. Causes of dam failures
EarthquakeLandslideFoundation failure
Equipment malfunction

7. WHY FLOODS ARE DANGEROUS ON HUMAN LIVES?

8. WHY FLOODS ARE DANGEROUS ON HUMAN LIVES, PROPERTIES, AND
ENVIRONMENT?...

9. WHY FLOODS ARE DANGEROUS ON HUMAN LIVES, PROPERTIES, AND
ENVIRONMENT?...

10. WHY FLOODS ARE DANGEROUS ON HUMAN LIVES, PROPERTIES, AND
ENVIRONMENT?...

11. WHY FLOODS ARE DANGEROUS ON HUMAN LIVES, PROPERTIES, AND
ENVIRONMENT?...

12. Vulnerability
Dimensions
Social
Economical
Ecological
Levels of coping
Individual
/personal
Community Regional
Administrative/
institutional
Structural
Losses
Interruption of business
Death
Injuries
Property damage
Agricultural losses

13. Age
Dependency on the government
Experience
Education
access to transportation
degree of home ownership or renters
special needs
Social dimension

14. Types of buildings (residential, commercial, industrial, etc.)
Infrastructures and critical sites ( schools, hospitals, emergency
services, etc.)
local building codes, zoning regulations, flood control programs
and structures, etc.)
Urbanization ongoing expansion
Economic Activities (Unemployment, taxes, etc.)
Structural & Economic dimension

15. Availability of fresh water resources
Climate Change impact of flood frequency
Rare species, Nature reserves, etc.
Environmental or Natural

16. Definitions…(2)
Hazards identification
• specify information on the nature and characteristics of the hazardous event and the community
Hazards Analysis
• knowing what could happen, the likelihood of it, and having some idea of the extent of the problems
that could arise
Vulnerability analysis
• measuring of a community’s tendency to incur (physical, political, economic, and social) losses
Risk analysis
• assessment of the probability of a hazardous event and the consequences that might occur to the
vulnerable items

17. Definitions…(3)
 RISK/RELIABILITY-BASED ENGINEERING DESIGN
Cost of
protection
Losses of
damages
Appropriate level of
protection

18. Risk analysis process
02

19. CONTENTS
 Risk analysis process
 Risk Matrix
 Hazard-vulnerability function
 Applications
 Conclusions and recommendations

20. Where flood risk analysis is necessary?
 Historical information (human memory,
chronicles etc.)
 Meteorological and hydrological data
 Analysis of potential breakdowns of hydro-
technological sites
Watershed’s outlet

21. Hazards analysis process
Hazards
identification
• Identify hazards
• Location
• Quantity of
chemical
• Nature of hazards
Vulnerability
analysis
• Vulnerability zone
• Human
populations
• Critical facilities
• Environment
Risk analysis
• Likelihood of
incident
• Severity
• Consequences

22. Hazards
identification
COMMUNITY
PROFILE
Human
society
Economic
Assets
Natural
Resources
HAZARDS
PROFILE
HAZARDS
MODELING

23. HAZARDS MODELING

24. HAZARDS PROFILE

25. measuring of a community’s propensity to incur (physical, political, economic, and social) losses
Exposure
• Population
• Economy
• Natural resources
• Agriculture production
• Infrastrucure
• Value of natural landscape
• Experience
• Climate change
• social or cultural values
Resistance
• Political will
• Economic incentives
• Use of technology
• Infrastructure hardening
• Restoration of natural resource base
• Social cohesion
Vulnerability analysis

26. a variable provides information
Vulnerability analysis - Indicators
Measurable
Simplicity
• clearly reflects
• Understandable
Data quality
• reliable sources
Sensitivity
• Timely related
Validity
• Accurate
• verifiable
Achievable
• Data Sources
• cost effective

27. Indicators examples
Social
• lower incomes (%of <1000 L.E/month)
• Age (% > 65; %<13 years)
• Disabled (% of population)
• Female (alone, households, single mothers) (% of population)
• Homelessness, minorities, illiterates (% of population)
• Few vehicles (#/1000 c)
Economic
• Employment loss (#)
• business sales or taxes reduction ($)
• Tourist Occupancy losses (#)
• Damages repairing costs

28. the determination of the likelihood of a disaster and possible consequences.
Identifying
community
vulnerability
indicators
the probability of the
hazard occurring
Risk
Analysis
Risk Analysis

29. Significant None
Minor
First aid or minor medical treatment,
little or no impact to the community
Moderate
Minor injuries, lost workday accident,
minor system damage, minor property damage, and
some community disruption
Major
Permanent partial disability,
temporary disability in excess of 3 months,
major or significant property damage,
Significant disruption
Catastrophic
Death or permanent and total disability,
Major or significant property damage,
failure or complete community trouble
Chance of occurring in a given
year
Certain >99%
Likely 50%–99%
Possible 5%–49%
Unlikely 2%–5%
Rare 1%–2%
Extremely rare <1%
Risk Analysis

30. ACTION
NECESSARY
Risk Analysis
Risk Matrix

31. Hazard-vulnerability functions (example)

32. Hazard-vulnerability function
Damage Hazard information Vulnerability
Building content Flood depth (and duration) Financial
Building construction Flood velocity (and duration) Building resistance
Human beings Flood depth and Flood velocity Human physical resistance
Vehicle Flood depth and Flood velocity Vehicle resistance
Human body health Contaminations Human body resistance

33. Examples
03

34. Crops’ flood hazard mapping - Bangladesh
Frequency
analysis
water level
DEM
Flood Depth
Crops maps
Flood Hazard
Maps
satellite
images
Landuse map
Land cover
map
Vulnerability
Hazard
damage
functions
Cost
Estimation

35.  Estimation of probable
maximum flood
 Development of Dam break
simulation model using MIKE 11
 Flood hazard assessment
Assessing flooding hazards on a proposed
industrial plant/site is northern India

36. the Flood Protection of the City of Dahab

37. Experiments to test mathematical models
results
Testa, G., et all, 2007. Flash flood flow experiment in a simplified urban district. J. Hydraul. Res. 45, 37–44

38. Bending moments Shear forces
Simulating flood risk vulnerability of buildings
Mazzorana, B., 2014. A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability of buildings. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

39. Developing new criterion for the stability of a
human body in flood waters
Xia, J., et all., 2014. New criterion for the stability of a human body in floodwaters. J. Hydraul. Res. 52, 93–104

40. Better estimation of risk and damages
Yamaguchi, Satoshi, et al. "Development of GIS-based flood-simulation software and application to flood-risk assessment."
Second IMA International Conference on Flood Risk Assessment. 2007.

41. Ending
04

42. Conclusions
 Hazards analysis is not an isolated process but ongoing one that
engages the local community.
 Risk communication, citizen participation, risk management, and
ongoing assessment are all parts of comprehensive emergency
management.

43. Recommendations
 Data collecting (surveys, questioners,
 Develop risk assessment models.
 Develop Evacuation plans
 Develop Community Resilience plans
 Provide Risks Communicating tools

44. References
 Pine, J., 2015. Hazards analysis : reducing the impact of disasters.
 Joern, Birkmann. Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: towards
disaster resilient societies. United Nations University Press, 2006.
 Natale, E., 2009. Dam Break Risk Assessment in Baker Valley (Chilean
Patagonia).
 Voortman, H. G., Van Gelder, P. H. A. J. M., & Vrijling, J. K. (2002). Risk-
based design of large-scale flood defence systems. Delft University of
Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences.
 Tung, Yeou-Koung. "Risk/reliability-based hydraulic engineering
design." L. May (1999): 1-56.

45. Questions Time

46. Thank you