This document discusses climate change mitigation through the energy dimension. It summarizes that energy is core to addressing climate change as technologies can half emissions by 2050. However, current trajectories are not on track to meet the 2°C warming limit. It then presents results from the Irish TIMES energy systems model, which can inform policy. A preliminary scenario shows that a 20% reduction in non-ETS emissions by 2020 is possible, with most savings in transport and residential sectors through electrification. Renewable targets are exceeded with 24% renewable energy and 15% renewable transport.

1. Climate Change Mitigation the Energy Dimension Brian P. Ó Gallachóir EPA CCRP Conference 2010 June 30 2010 Principal Investigator, Energy Policy and Modelling, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork

4. Observations of Climate Change Global mean temperature (+0.74 ° 1990 - 2005 ) Global average sea level Northern hemisphere Snow cover

6. Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Energy

7. Human Activities Ireland

8. Global GHG Emissions 2005 Ireland 66.8% (2008) EU-27 77.8% (2006)

10. Response Timeframes

11. Response Challenge 2 °C 3 °C 4 °C

13. Response Insufficient

14. EU Proposed Mitigation Path

15. Mitigation – Energy Dimension

16. Mitigation – Energy Opportunity

18. Economy, Energy & CO 2 53% CO 2 increase on 1990

22. National Forecasts (WP+)

23. National Forecasts (WP+)

27. TIMES model Remme U. 2007 Overview of TIMES: Parameters, Primal Variables & Equations. Proc. ETSAP Workshop November 2007 Brazil.

29. IT Reference Scenario

30. IT-NETS Scenario Total CO 2

31. IT-NETS Scenario NETS CO 2

32. IT-NETS Scenario Residential 13% RE 46% EL 24% EL

33. IT-NETS Scenario Transport 15% RE

34. IT-NETS Scenario Services 16% RE 9% RE

35. IT-NETS Scenario Elec Gen

36. IT-NETS Scenario Renewables >10-fold increase 40% Wind 32% Biom 25% Biof

37. Energy opportunities Ireland

39. Conclusions

40. Climate Change Mitigation the Energy Dimension Brian P. Ó Gallachóir EPA CCRP Conference 2010 June 30 2010 Principal Investigator, Energy Policy and Modelling, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork