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© OECD/IEA 2018
Sustainable Development Scenario
Laura Cozzi, Olivia Chen, Molly Walton, Andrew Prag
3 December 2018
© OECD/IEA 2018
Today’s energy context
 Mixed signals about the pace & direction of change in global energy:
 Oil markets are entering a period of renewed uncertainty & volatility
 Natural gas is on the rise: China’s rapid demand growth is erasing talk of a ‘gas glut’
 Solar PV has the momentum while other key technologies & efficiency policies need a push
 Our assessment points to energy-related CO2 emissions reaching a historic high in 2018
 For the first time, the global population without access to electricity fell below 1 billion
 Electricity is carrying great expectations, but questions remain over the extent of its
reach in meeting demand & how the power systems of the future will operate
 Policy makers need well-grounded insights about different possible futures & how
they come about. The WEO provides two key scenarios:
 New Policies Scenario  Sustainable Development Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2018
The SDS is fully in line with the Paris agreement
The CO2 emissions trajectory to 2040 in the SDS is at the lower end of a range
of scenarios projecting a global temperature rise of 1.7-1.8 °C in 2100
CO2 emissions in the Sustainable Development Scenario and other “well below 2 °C” scenarios
-30
0
30
60
2010 2040 2070 2100
GtCO2
Sustainable Development
Scenario
Scenarios projecting a
1.7-1.8 °C rise in 2100
© OECD/IEA 2018
An integrated strategy for energy & sustainable development
The Sustainable Development Scenario reduces CO2 emissions while also tackling air
pollution, achieving universal energy access, and assessing implications for water
Sustainable
Development
Scenario
change
climate
Address
access
energy
universal
Achieve
Improve air
quality
© OECD/IEA 2018
Benefits of the Sustainable Development Scenario
Outcomes of the Sustainable Development Scenario vs. New Policies Scenario, 2040
In an integrated approach, universal energy access can be reached while also
achieving climate goals and reducing air pollutant emissions, at little extra cost
Carbon dioxide emissions
(Gt CO2)
Population without access to
modern energy (billion people)
Premature deaths related
to air pollution (million)
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Electricity Clean cooking
1
2
3
4
5
Indoor Outdoor
10
20
30
40
CO2 emissions
© OECD/IEA 2018
Progress in electricity access is seen in all world regions,
but sub-Saharan Africa lags behind
The world population without electricity access fell below 1 billion in 2017, led by India;
but despite recent progress, efforts in sub-Saharan Africa need to redouble
Population without electricity access
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Billion
Sub-Saharan Africa
Other Asia
India
Latin America
North Africa and
Middle East
2017
Latin America
North Africa and
Middle East
2017
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
billion
Sub-Saharan Africa
Other Asia
India
Latin America
North Africa and
Middle East
2017
© OECD/IEA 2018
Clean cooking access is best achieved through LPG and improved biomass cookstoves,
and could significantly lower annual premature deaths related to household air pollution
Clean cooking for all: planned effort lags behind
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2000 2010 2020 2030
Population without access to clean cooking
New Policies Sustainable Development
Sub-Saharan Africa
Other Asia
India
Other developing countries
2017
Sub-Saharan Africa
Other Asia
India
Other developing countries
LPG
53%
Improved biomass
cookstoves 37%
Biogas digesters
8%
Electric stoves
2%
Population gaining access to clean cooking
in the Sustainable Development Scenario,
2018-2030
billion
2017
© OECD/IEA 2018
Synergies between energy access and GHG mitigation
Higher CO2 emissions from increased fossil fuel consumption for access are more than
offset by a reduction in other GHGs from avoided traditional use of biomass
Energy access-related GHG emissions in 2030 compared to today by scenario
- 50
0
50
100
150
200MtCO2-eq
LPG
Off-grid
Mini-grid
Grid
Traditional use
of biomass
Net change
New Policies Sustainable Development
- 50
0
50
100
150
200MtCO2-eq
New Policies Sustainable Development
© OECD/IEA 2018
Share of rural population without access to water
Synergies: Access to electricity and clean water
Two-thirds of those without access to clean drinking water in rural areas also lack access
to electricity, opening opportunities to co-ordinate solutions
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Ethiopia Uganda Ghana Côte d'Ivoire Cambodia India Bangladesh
Without access to safely managed drinking water Without access to electricity
or electricity
© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy efficiency & recovery can help offset additional
energy demand from achieving SDG 6
Electricity consumption in urban municipal wastewater treatment facilities in 2030
Impact on energy demand from meeting SDG 6 could be significant, but if right policies &
technology are put in place the wastewater sector can become a net energy producer
- 200
- 100
100
200
300
400
500
600
BAU SDS Energy neutral/
positive case
TWh
Achieving SDG 6.2 & 6.3
© OECD/IEA 2018
The energy sector requires water
A focus on an integrated approach rather than just a decarbonisation approach
results in the lowest level of water withdrawals in 2030
Global water use by the energy sector by scenario
100
200
300
400
New
Policies
Climate
only
Sustainable
Development
bcm
Withdrawal
Consumption
2016 2030
© OECD/IEA 2018
Greenhouse gas reductions:
mixed progress on key cost-effective measures
Progress on Bridge Scenario measures for an early peak
On track
More effort needed
Not on track
2015
start
2017
intended progress
2030
goal
Reducing upstream oil and gas methane
Reducing inefficient fossil fuel subsidies
Reducing least-efficient coal-fired power
Investing in renewables
Enhancing energy efficiency
Investment in renewables in power generation is on track with the Bridge Scenario,
but more efforts on other measures are required
© OECD/IEA 2018
The Bridge Scenario measures get us less than half-way
to the emissions reductions needed in the SDS
Global CO2 and CH4 emissions in the New Policies and Sustainable Development scenarios
From the Bridge to the Sustainable Development Scenario
15
20
25
30
35
40
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GtCO2-eq
New Policies Scenario
Sustainable
Development
Scenario
Bridge Scenario measures
Further action in SDS
37% End-use efficiency and
fossil fuel subsidies reform
9% Reducing upstream oil
and gas methane
36% Renewables and reducing
least-efficient coal-fired power
20% Other: nuclear, CCUS,
fuel-switching
© OECD/IEA 2018
Synergies: low-carbon measures reduce air pollution
Low-carbon measures rather than measures specific to air pollution
account for 57% of NOX and 40% of SO2 emissions reductions
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mt
Low-carbon measures
Air pollution measures
Universal access
New Policies Scenario
Sustainable Development
Scenario
NOx
SO2
PM2.5
Drivers of pollutant emissions reductions
© OECD/IEA 2018
200
400
600
800
1 000
2017 2040
Electric car
fleet
(million cars)
5
10
15
20
25
2017 2040
Energy
productivity
($GDP/Mtoe)
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2017 2040
CCUS
deployment
(Gt CO2 captured)
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2017 2040
Share of
non-fossil energy
Wind and solar
generation
(thousand TWh)
4
8
12
16
20
2017 2040
Energy Sector Transformation in the SDS
Delivering the energy transformation in the SDS requires 13% more energy sector
investment than the NPS, due particularly to ramped up demand-side investment
Additional in Sustainable Development ScenarioNew Policies Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2018
Can we unlock a different energy future?
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
Coal plants make up one-third of CO2 emissions today and half are less than 15 years old;
policies are needed to support CCUS, efficient operations and technology innovation
12
18
24
30
2017 2025 2030 2035 2040
Gt CO2 36
Sustainable Development
Scenario
Coal-fired power plants
Increased room
to manoeuvre
6
New Policies Scenario
Existing and under construction
power plants, factories, buildings etc.
© OECD/IEA 2018
Conclusions
 Energy-related CO2 emissions continue to rise and will hit record highs in 2018
 Progress is being made towards the SDGs, but under current trends goals on climate
change, air pollution and universal access will not be met
 Our strategy for sustainable energy shows that concerted action to address climate
change is fully compatible with global goals on universal access & air quality
 There is no single solution to turn emissions around: renewables, efficiency & a host
of innovative technologies, including storage, CCUS & hydrogen, are all required
 Energy requires water, but the integrated SDS has lower withdrawals than any other
scenario
© OECD/IEA 2018
iea.org/weo

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Webinar on Sustainable Development Scenario

  • 1. © OECD/IEA 2018 Sustainable Development Scenario Laura Cozzi, Olivia Chen, Molly Walton, Andrew Prag 3 December 2018
  • 2. © OECD/IEA 2018 Today’s energy context  Mixed signals about the pace & direction of change in global energy:  Oil markets are entering a period of renewed uncertainty & volatility  Natural gas is on the rise: China’s rapid demand growth is erasing talk of a ‘gas glut’  Solar PV has the momentum while other key technologies & efficiency policies need a push  Our assessment points to energy-related CO2 emissions reaching a historic high in 2018  For the first time, the global population without access to electricity fell below 1 billion  Electricity is carrying great expectations, but questions remain over the extent of its reach in meeting demand & how the power systems of the future will operate  Policy makers need well-grounded insights about different possible futures & how they come about. The WEO provides two key scenarios:  New Policies Scenario  Sustainable Development Scenario
  • 3. © OECD/IEA 2018 The SDS is fully in line with the Paris agreement The CO2 emissions trajectory to 2040 in the SDS is at the lower end of a range of scenarios projecting a global temperature rise of 1.7-1.8 °C in 2100 CO2 emissions in the Sustainable Development Scenario and other “well below 2 °C” scenarios -30 0 30 60 2010 2040 2070 2100 GtCO2 Sustainable Development Scenario Scenarios projecting a 1.7-1.8 °C rise in 2100
  • 4. © OECD/IEA 2018 An integrated strategy for energy & sustainable development The Sustainable Development Scenario reduces CO2 emissions while also tackling air pollution, achieving universal energy access, and assessing implications for water Sustainable Development Scenario change climate Address access energy universal Achieve Improve air quality
  • 5. © OECD/IEA 2018 Benefits of the Sustainable Development Scenario Outcomes of the Sustainable Development Scenario vs. New Policies Scenario, 2040 In an integrated approach, universal energy access can be reached while also achieving climate goals and reducing air pollutant emissions, at little extra cost Carbon dioxide emissions (Gt CO2) Population without access to modern energy (billion people) Premature deaths related to air pollution (million) 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Electricity Clean cooking 1 2 3 4 5 Indoor Outdoor 10 20 30 40 CO2 emissions
  • 6. © OECD/IEA 2018 Progress in electricity access is seen in all world regions, but sub-Saharan Africa lags behind The world population without electricity access fell below 1 billion in 2017, led by India; but despite recent progress, efforts in sub-Saharan Africa need to redouble Population without electricity access 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Billion Sub-Saharan Africa Other Asia India Latin America North Africa and Middle East 2017 Latin America North Africa and Middle East 2017 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 billion Sub-Saharan Africa Other Asia India Latin America North Africa and Middle East 2017
  • 7. © OECD/IEA 2018 Clean cooking access is best achieved through LPG and improved biomass cookstoves, and could significantly lower annual premature deaths related to household air pollution Clean cooking for all: planned effort lags behind 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2000 2010 2020 2030 Population without access to clean cooking New Policies Sustainable Development Sub-Saharan Africa Other Asia India Other developing countries 2017 Sub-Saharan Africa Other Asia India Other developing countries LPG 53% Improved biomass cookstoves 37% Biogas digesters 8% Electric stoves 2% Population gaining access to clean cooking in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2018-2030 billion 2017
  • 8. © OECD/IEA 2018 Synergies between energy access and GHG mitigation Higher CO2 emissions from increased fossil fuel consumption for access are more than offset by a reduction in other GHGs from avoided traditional use of biomass Energy access-related GHG emissions in 2030 compared to today by scenario - 50 0 50 100 150 200MtCO2-eq LPG Off-grid Mini-grid Grid Traditional use of biomass Net change New Policies Sustainable Development - 50 0 50 100 150 200MtCO2-eq New Policies Sustainable Development
  • 9. © OECD/IEA 2018 Share of rural population without access to water Synergies: Access to electricity and clean water Two-thirds of those without access to clean drinking water in rural areas also lack access to electricity, opening opportunities to co-ordinate solutions 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Ethiopia Uganda Ghana Côte d'Ivoire Cambodia India Bangladesh Without access to safely managed drinking water Without access to electricity or electricity
  • 10. © OECD/IEA 2018 Energy efficiency & recovery can help offset additional energy demand from achieving SDG 6 Electricity consumption in urban municipal wastewater treatment facilities in 2030 Impact on energy demand from meeting SDG 6 could be significant, but if right policies & technology are put in place the wastewater sector can become a net energy producer - 200 - 100 100 200 300 400 500 600 BAU SDS Energy neutral/ positive case TWh Achieving SDG 6.2 & 6.3
  • 11. © OECD/IEA 2018 The energy sector requires water A focus on an integrated approach rather than just a decarbonisation approach results in the lowest level of water withdrawals in 2030 Global water use by the energy sector by scenario 100 200 300 400 New Policies Climate only Sustainable Development bcm Withdrawal Consumption 2016 2030
  • 12. © OECD/IEA 2018 Greenhouse gas reductions: mixed progress on key cost-effective measures Progress on Bridge Scenario measures for an early peak On track More effort needed Not on track 2015 start 2017 intended progress 2030 goal Reducing upstream oil and gas methane Reducing inefficient fossil fuel subsidies Reducing least-efficient coal-fired power Investing in renewables Enhancing energy efficiency Investment in renewables in power generation is on track with the Bridge Scenario, but more efforts on other measures are required
  • 13. © OECD/IEA 2018 The Bridge Scenario measures get us less than half-way to the emissions reductions needed in the SDS Global CO2 and CH4 emissions in the New Policies and Sustainable Development scenarios From the Bridge to the Sustainable Development Scenario 15 20 25 30 35 40 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 GtCO2-eq New Policies Scenario Sustainable Development Scenario Bridge Scenario measures Further action in SDS 37% End-use efficiency and fossil fuel subsidies reform 9% Reducing upstream oil and gas methane 36% Renewables and reducing least-efficient coal-fired power 20% Other: nuclear, CCUS, fuel-switching
  • 14. © OECD/IEA 2018 Synergies: low-carbon measures reduce air pollution Low-carbon measures rather than measures specific to air pollution account for 57% of NOX and 40% of SO2 emissions reductions 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 20 40 60 80 100 120 Mt Low-carbon measures Air pollution measures Universal access New Policies Scenario Sustainable Development Scenario NOx SO2 PM2.5 Drivers of pollutant emissions reductions
  • 15. © OECD/IEA 2018 200 400 600 800 1 000 2017 2040 Electric car fleet (million cars) 5 10 15 20 25 2017 2040 Energy productivity ($GDP/Mtoe) 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2017 2040 CCUS deployment (Gt CO2 captured) 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2017 2040 Share of non-fossil energy Wind and solar generation (thousand TWh) 4 8 12 16 20 2017 2040 Energy Sector Transformation in the SDS Delivering the energy transformation in the SDS requires 13% more energy sector investment than the NPS, due particularly to ramped up demand-side investment Additional in Sustainable Development ScenarioNew Policies Scenario
  • 16. © OECD/IEA 2018 Can we unlock a different energy future? Global energy-related CO2 emissions Coal plants make up one-third of CO2 emissions today and half are less than 15 years old; policies are needed to support CCUS, efficient operations and technology innovation 12 18 24 30 2017 2025 2030 2035 2040 Gt CO2 36 Sustainable Development Scenario Coal-fired power plants Increased room to manoeuvre 6 New Policies Scenario Existing and under construction power plants, factories, buildings etc.
  • 17. © OECD/IEA 2018 Conclusions  Energy-related CO2 emissions continue to rise and will hit record highs in 2018  Progress is being made towards the SDGs, but under current trends goals on climate change, air pollution and universal access will not be met  Our strategy for sustainable energy shows that concerted action to address climate change is fully compatible with global goals on universal access & air quality  There is no single solution to turn emissions around: renewables, efficiency & a host of innovative technologies, including storage, CCUS & hydrogen, are all required  Energy requires water, but the integrated SDS has lower withdrawals than any other scenario