The document summarizes key findings about renewables in 2017. Solar PV broke records in 2016, growing faster than any other form of energy and becoming the global leader in new capacity additions. Wind and solar prices continue to decline due to competitive auctions. By 2022, renewables capacity is projected to grow by over 1,000 GW and generate over 8,000 TWh of electricity annually, led by strong growth in China, India, and solar PV. Widespread adoption of renewables presents challenges around integrating variable wind and solar power into existing energy systems.

1. Renewables 2017
London – 04 October 2017

2. © IEA 2017
Context
Ø Policy support & technology progress continue to drive robust growth in
renewables
Ø Solar PV broke new records in 2016, led by China
Ø Solar PV grew faster than any other form of generating capacity
Ø Competitive auctions are seeing record-low prices for wind & solar
Ø Prospects for renewables underpinned by need to address core energy
challenges
Ø Air pollution still a major problem
Ø Universal access to modern energy remains a distant goal
Ø Current climate pledges fall short of meeting mitigation goals

3. © IEA 2017
2016 – Renewables hitting new records driven by solar PV
Renewables breaking an all-time record accounting for two thirds of global net capacity additions;
For the first time solar PV becoming the global leader in net capacity growth
Power capacity additions by fuel 2016
0 50 100 150 200
Renewables
Gas
Wind
Solar PV
Coal
Additions (GW)
Retirements

4. © IEA 2017
Price discovery through competitive auctions effectively reduces costs along the entire value chain;
Auctions with long-term contracts will drive almost half of new capacity growth over 2017-22
Announced wind and solar PV average auction prices by commissioning date
Competition driving costs down
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
USD/MWh
Onshore wind
average auction
price
Solar PV average
auction price

5. © IEA 2017
Renewables growth more and more dependent on wind and solar
Solar PV enters a new era, becoming the undisputed leader in renewable power capacity growth;
PV also accounts for 60% of the upside potential in the accelerated case
Renewable electricity capacity growth by technology
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1999-2004 2005-10 2011-16 2017-22
Capacity growth (GW)
Additional -
accelerated case
Others
Hydropower
Solar PV
Wind
% from wind and
solar PV (right axis)

6. © IEA 2017
China continues to lead growth while India overtakes the EU
The forecast is 12% more optimistic vs. last year mainly due to solar PV revisions in China and India;
Growth could be 27% higher with enhanced policies addressing regulatory uncertainties and grid integration
Renewable capacity growth by country/region
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
China United States EU India Japan Brazil Africa&ME
Capacity growth (GW)
2011-16 2017-22 main case Additional accelerated case

7. © IEA 2017
Solar PV enabling electrification in India, Bangladesh and sub-Saharan Africa
With government policies and innovative business models, off-grid PV capacity triples in Africa and developing Asia.
Small home systems bring initial electricity access to almost 70 million by 2022
Cumulative growth of off-grid solar PV applications in developing Asia and sub-Saharan Africa
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
millionsMW
Additional SHSs
Additional industrial
Additional mini-grids
Initial electricity access
from SHS (right axis)

8. © IEA 2017
Renewables closing the gap with coal
Renewable generation to expand by over a third with its share increasing from 24% in 2016 to 30% in 2022, rapidly
closing the gap with coal
Electricity generation by fuel
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
Generation (TWh)
Coal
Natural gas
Renewables

9. © IEA 2017
Wind and solar transforming power sector - system integration becomes key
More flexible power systems, adapted market design and policies will have to play a key role
in integrating larger shares of wind and solar in a secure and cost-effective way
VRE share in annual electricity generation 2016-22
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Japan
Brazil
India
China
United States
Australia
Italy
United Kingdom
Germany
Spain
Ireland
Denmark
% of total generation
PV share in 2016
Wind share in 2016
Additional PV share
in 2022
Additional wind share
in 2022

10. © IEA 2017
Surging EVs to complement biofuels in renewable transport
Share of renewables in road transport increases from 4% in 2016 to almost 5% in 2022, with biofuels representing 80% of the growth led by
Asia & Brazil; EV electricity consumption doubles by 2022, with renewables providing 30% of demand
Biofuels
2/3 wheelers
Electric cars and
buses
2016 2022
4%
7%
Biofuels and electric vehicles contribution to renewable energy consumption in road transport

11. © IEA 2017
Progress in renewable heat depends on strong policies
Renewables share in heat consumption rises from 9% in 2016 to 11% in 2022. China leads absolute growth with new targets; EU remains the
largest renewable heat consumer while total heat demand outpaces renewables growth in India
Share of renewables in heat consumption by selected countries
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
% of renewables
European Union
USA
India
China

12. © IEA 2017
Concluding remarks
Ø Renewables rise by 1,000 GW to 2022, equal to half of current total coal capacity
Ø Renewables generation exceeds 8,000 TWh by 2022, equal to total electricity consumption
of China, India & Germany combined
Ø Solar PV enters a new era leading the growth in renewables, driven by a rapid expansion in
deployment & manufacturing capacity in China
Ø Despite rapid growth in EVs, decarbonisation of transport is a long way off
Ø Only 30% of electricity used by EVs is sourced from renewables
Ø Advanced biofuels require specific incentives to bolster deployment
Ø Policymakers have to turn their focus to system integration & expanding the use of
renewables for heating & cooling