Professor Brian Vad Mathiesen, Sustainable Energy Planning Research Group,Aalborg University EFCF2020: 24th conference in series of the European Fuel Cell Forum in Lucerne, October 22, 2020

1. SMART ENERGY SYSTEMS AND
ELECTROLYSERS IN RENEWABLE
ENERGY SYSTEMS
B r i a n Va d M a t h i e s e n , b v m @ p l a n . a a u . d k
E F C F 2 0 2 0 : 2 4 t h c o n f e r e n c e i n s e r i e s o f t h e
E u r o p e a n F u e l C e l l F o r u m i n L u c e r n e
S u s t a i n a b l e E n e r g y P l a n n i n g R e s e a r c h G r o u p
A a l b o r g U n i v e r s i t y @BrianVad

2. Energy System Challenges and opportunities Questions and strategic decisions
- Electricity demands the smallest of the demands
- Both transport & heating/cooling demands larger
- Electricity grids are much more expensive than thermal
grids/gas grids (pr. capacity)
- Energy storages have different costs in different sectors
and different scales
- What are the role of the grids in the future
- How can energy storage be used across sectors to
transform all demands to renewable energy cost-
effectively?
- How should we use electrolyser in future energy systems?
- How important are energy savings in the future and what
is the balance between electricity or heat savings
compared to renewable energy?
Cost of
Heat
Savings
(€/kWh)
Amount of Savings (TWh)
Cost of Supplying
Heat
30-50%
Source: Mapping and
analyses of the current
and future heating-cooling
fuel deployment, DG
Energy, 2016

3. Positives
• A large variety of
scenarios
• Two net zero
emission scenario
• More details within
buildings and
industry
Scenario problems
• Very high ambition in
all scenarios with
regards to energy
efficiency in buildings
• No district heating
implemented
• No focus on how to
use electrolysers in a
systems perspective
• Politically driven
scenarios for gas
• Claim to make
”optimal systems”
Tool problems
• 5 year time steps
(until 2070 – focus on
2050)
• partial equilibrium
modelling system
that simulates an
energy market
• Investment
optimisation (with
limits e.g. wind and
nuclear)
• No clear distinction
between
private/business
economy and socio-
economy.
New scenarios: Target of net zero emissions in
Europe?

4. Scenarios for EU2050
- with GHG reductions driven by
decarbonised energy carriers:
- Electricity
- Hydrogren
- Power 2 X
- with demand driven GHG
reductions:
- Energy efficiency
- Circular economy
- combination
- Combo (below 2°C)
- net zero GHG emissions
(COMBO+)
- Negative Emissions
Technologies
- Sustainable Lifestyles

5. Energy Storages
About 100 TWh batteries in all scenarios
- annual costs of several hundred billion EURO

6. Buildings in the Energy Union in 2050
Highlights
• Gas for heating
dominates
• Stagnating district
heating
• High ambition on EE
in buildings due to
tool)
• Higher costs than
today
TWh
Total heat
demand
Heat
demand
heat pumps
Total
electricity
demand
Baseline 2207,1 863,1 1537,3
COMBO 1789,1 883,7 1271,4
1,5 TECH 1620,7 806,2 1127,7
1,5 LIFE 1488,2 712,3 1101,7

7. Total system costs

8. Biomass use beyond residual ressources has potentially has an
effect on the climate
Denmark has more ressource pr. capita than other countries
The Danish model on biomass should remain a Danish model
Challenges in biomass
consumption in Denmark and EU
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
IDA's Energy
Vision 2050
CEESA 2050 Elbertsen et al.
(2012)
Gylling et al.
(2012)
L. Hamelin et al.
(2019)
BioBoost Smart Energy
Europe
PRIMES / -
1.5TECH
PRIMES - 1.5LIFE PRIMES -
1.5LIFE-LB
JRC-EU-TIMES
Model
Denmark EU27 (not including Croatia) and
Switzerland
EU28 EU28 + Iceland,
Norway,
Switzerland, and
Western Balkan
Countries
[GJ/cap]
Publication and geography
Bioenergy potentialsper capita projected in different publications and
current bioenergy consumption
Bioenergy potential per capita (GJ/cap) Current consumption in Denmark (2018)
Biomass
Today in DK (175 PJ) 30 GJ/capita
Latest EU research (conservative) (8500 PJ) 17 GJ/capita
EU 2050 scenarioer (A Clean Planet for all) 15-21 GJ/capita
IDA 100% RE DK in 2050 (200 PJ) 30 GJ/capita
Danish Energy Authority scenarios from 2014 35-45 GJ/capita

9. Solutions on the table
1. Interconnectors and trading (infrastructure investments)
2. Flexible electricity demands and smart grids (batteries and single string supply)
3. Integrated efficient Smart Energy Systems

10. Smart Energy Systems
Download rapport:
www.EnergyPLAN.eu/IDA

11. Electricity Thermal
€125/kWh
€300/kWh
€1/kWh
€90/kWh
1. Thermal Cheaper at All
Scales
Unit Investment Costs for
Energy Storage

12. Unit Investment Costs for
Energy Storage
Electricity Thermal
€125/kWh
€300/kWh
€1/kWh
€90/kWh
1. Thermal Cheaper at All
Scales
2.
Bigger is
Better
i.e.
Cheaper

13. Pump Hydro Storage
175 €/kWh
(Source: Electricity Energy Storage
Technology Options: A White Paper
Primer on Applications, Costs, and
Benefits. Electric Power Research
Institute, 2010)
Natural Gas Underground
Storage
0.05 €/kWh
(Source: Current State Of and Issues
Concerning Underground Natural Gas
Storage. Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission, 2004)
Oil Tank
0.02 €/kWh
(Source: Dahl KH, Oil tanking
Copenhagen A/S, 2013: Oil Storage
Tank. 2013)
Thermal Storage
1-4 €/kWh
(Source: Danish Technology
Catalogue, 2012)
Storage Comparison

14. Types of energy systems
We can increase wind power
70 units of
savings!

15. With
25%
wind
power

16. Complexity of the
sector
Many different modes and needs
Electrification of transport sector has the first
priority
BUT not everything can be electrified…

17. HYDROGENATION OF GASIFIED BIOMASS
(FOR HEAVY TRANSPORT)
Electrolyser1
Biomass
(74.7 PJ)
Electricity
(52.7 PJ)
Methanol/DME
(100 PJ2
)
H2
(38.4 PJ)
Gasifier Chemical
Synthesis
Hydrogenation
2.9 Mt
Syngas
Resource Conversion Process││ │ ││ Transport Demand
87 Gpkm
53 Gtkm
Transport Fuel
OR
H2
O
(3.8 Mt)
0.9 Mt
M E T H A N O L ,
D M E O R
M E T H A N ?
P O T E N T I A L
F O R N O
B I O M A S S !

18. Electricity
(111 PJ)
Conversion Process││ │ │Transport Fuel
Electric Grid1
Electricity
(100 PJ)
│Transport Demand
294 Gpkm
323 Gtkm
OR
Resource
Resource
Electricity
(111 PJ)
Conversion Process││ │ │
Electricity
(100 PJ)
│ Transport Demand
313 Gpkm
Freight is not
applicable
Transport Fuel
ORElectric Grid1
Electrolyser1
Biomass
[Cellulose]
(65 PJ)
Electricity
(83.5 PJ)
Methane
(100 PJ2
)
H2
(60.5 PJ)
Steam
Gasifier
Chemical
Synthesis
Hydrogenation
1.9 Mt
Syngas
Resource Conversion Process││ │ ││ Transport Demand
61 Gpkm
36 Gtkm
Transport Fuel
OR
H2
O
(2.6 Mt)
4.5Mt
Marginal Heat
3
(7.6 PJ)
Power Plant
6 PJ
3
0.6 PJ
83 PJ
59 PJ
Electrolyser1
Biomass
[Glucose]
(60 PJ)
Electricity
(83 PJ)
Methane
(100 PJ2
)
H2
(60.5 PJ)
Anaerobic
Digester
Chemical
Synthesis
CO2
Hydrogenation
4.5 Mt
Resource Conversion Process││ │ ││ Transport Demand
61 Gpkm
36 Gtkm
Transport Fuel
OR
H2
O
(2.3 Mt)
Biogas
(50 GJ)
2.3 Mt
OR
Biomass1
(77 PJ)
Methanol/DME
(100 PJ5
)
Electricity
(178 PJ)
CO2
(7 Mt)
Co-electrolysis4
Carbon
Sequestration &
Recycling3Electricity2
(7.3 PJ)
Chemical
Synthesis
Syngas
(139 PJ)
H2
O
(5.7 Mt)
Resource Conversion Process││ │ ││ Transport Demand
or
50 Gtkm
83 Gpkm
Transport Fuel
Electricity
HeatPower Plant
Electrolyser6
Chemical
Synthesis
Fermenter
Hydrogenation
Chemical
Synthesis
Electricity
(307 PJ)
H2
(149.4 PJ)
Straw
(401.7 PJ)
H2
(72.2 PJ)
Methanol/DME
(62.6 PJ2
)
Ethanol
(100 PJ)
Methanol/DME
(337.5 PJ2
)
CO2
(4.4 Mt)
H2O
(15.5 Mt)
Hydrogenation
Low & High
Temperature
Gasification7
Resource Conversion Process││ │ │Transport Fuel
OR
Transport Demand │
52 Gpkm
67 Gpkm
31 Gtkm
39 Gtkm4
279 Gpkm
169 Gtkm
OR
OR
Lignin (197.7 PJ)
C5 Sugars (92.8 PJ)
Biomass
(40.2 PJ)
Power Plant
115
Mt
1 Mt
Marginal Heat1
(50.2 PJ)
303.6 PJ
3.4 PJ3
3.5 Mt
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
DirectElectrification
BatteryElectrification
Hydrogen
Fermentation(Fuelexcl.Ships)toMethanol
Fermentation(Energy)toMethanol
BiomassHydrogenationtoMethanol:SteamGasification
BiomassHydrogenationtoMethanol:PartialOxidisation
Gasification
CO2HydrogenationwithCCS(IncludingBiomass)to
Methanol
CO2HydrogenationwithCCStoMethanol
CO2HydrogenationwithCarbonTreestoMethanol
Co-electrolysiswithCCS(IncludingBiomass)toMethanol
Co-electrolysiswithCCStoMethanol
Co-electrolysiswithCarbonTreestoMethanol
BiogasHydrogenationtoMethane
BiomassHydrogenationtoMethane
CO2HydrogenationwithCCS(IncludingBiomass)to
Methane
CO2HydrogenationwithCCStoMethane
CO2HydrogenationwithCarbonTreestoMethane
Co-electrolysiswithCCS(IncludingBiomass)toMethane
Co-electrolysiswithCCStoMethane
Co-electrolysiswithCarbonTreestoMethane
Elec. H2 Methanol/DME Methane
EnergyConsumptionPer100Gpkm(PJ)
Passenger Transport
Electricity (PJ)
Bioenergy (PJ)
Total (PJ)
“ T H E S E P A T H W A Y S W E R E A S S E S S E D T O Q U A N T I F Y H O W
M U C H B I O M A S S A N D E L E C T R I C I T Y A R E R E Q U I R E D T O
S U P P L Y T H E S A M E T R A N S P O R T D E M A N D U S I N G T H E S E
P A T H W A Y S ”

19. Electrolyser Hydrogenation
Carbon
or N2
source
Chemical
synthesis
H 2
Step 1
Gas from biogas, biomass
gasification , recycled CO2
emissions or nitrogen from
air
METHANOL/DME/
METHANE
H 2 O
10/22/2020SEMP - Aalborg
/
A M M O N I A

20. Electrolyser Hydrogenation
Carbon
or N2
source
Chemical
synthesis
H 2
Step 2
Hydrogen production from
steam electrolysis
METHANOL/DME/
METHANE
H 2 O
10/22/2020SEMP - Aalborg
/
A M M O N I A

21. Electrolyser Hydrogenation
Carbon
or N2
source
Chemical
synthesis
H 2
Step 3
Conversion of created syngas
to desired fuel
METHANOL/DME/
METHANE
S Y N G A S
T W O L I Q U I D
E L E C T R O F U E L
P L A N T S I N T H E
W O R L D
H 2 O
10/22/2020SEMP - Aalborg
/
A M M O N I A

22. Technology
readiness level
The individual technologies
more advanced than generally
presumed
The concept as an integrated
production system remains to
be proven on a larger scale.

23. Two possibilities for flexibility
Dynamic operation of the electrolysis in relation to the electricity price (70 % buffer capacity)
The fuel synthesis is assumed to be able to be operated dynamically, but not in direct dependence on the electrolysis
Two possibilities for flexibility
1. Hydrogen storage
2. Buffer capacity of CO2/N2 capture and CO2/N2 storage

24. Electrofuels /Power-2-X and
production methods3 types of transport
Heavy road transportation
Aviation
Shipping
5 types of fuel
Methane
Methanol
DME
JP
Ammonia
4 types of production
Gasification
Point source (high) – Post combustion capture at large biomass CHP, 400 €/ton/year
Point source (low) – Biogas upgrade, 20 €/ton/year
Nitrogen capture

25. CO2 shadow price*
6 t h I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o n f e r e n c e o n S m a r t E n e r g y S y s t e m s
6 - 7 O c t o b e r 2 0 2 0
# S E S A A U 2 0 2 0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Methane Methanol DME JP Methane Methanol DME Ammonia
Heavy road transportation Aviation Shipping
CostofavoidedCO2[€/ton]
Price of fossil fuels: 100 % of reference value
Gasification Point source (high) Point source (low) Nitrogen capture CCS
*Preliminary results

26. Comparison*
6 t h I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o n f e r e n c e o n S m a r t E n e r g y S y s t e m s
6 - 7 O c t o b e r 2 0 2 0
# S E S A A U 2 0 2 0 *Preliminary results
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Pointsource(high),compressed
Pointsource(high),liquid
Gasification,compressed
Gasification,liquid
Pointsource(low),compressed
Pointsource(low),liquid
Pointsource(high)
Gasification
Pointsource(low)
Pointsource(high)
Gasification
Pointsource(low)
Pointsource(high)
Gasification
Pointsource(low)
Ammonia(N2capture)
Hydrogen
Oil
Naturalgas
Methane DME JP Methanol Other
Productioncost[€/MWh]
Hydrogen storage CO2/N2 buffer capacity Reference

27. What are electrofuels?
High share of electricity in production process
New way of producing hydrocarbons/ammonia
Merging hydrogen with carbon or nitrogen
Redirecting electricity to transport sector
Open a door to fuel storage
Flexible end-fuel choice
ELECTROFUELS

28. Advantages of
electrofuels
New way of producing hydrocarbons/ammonia
Improved flexibility of the system
Cross-sector integration
Flexibility of fuel choice
Increased electricity in the transport sector
Reduction of biomass usage for fuel production in case of
biomass hydrogenation
Merging hydrogen with carbon or nitrogen and conversion
of electricity into form of liquid or gaseous fuels
Reduction of CO2 emissions in case of CO2 recycling
pathways
No big infrastructure adaptations
Open a door to fuel storage

29. The next steps in transport?
With 50%
wind
power

30. Towards Smart Energy Systems
with electrofuels
With 75%
wind
power
“…synthetic fuels based on gasified biomass and electrolysis can pave
the way to entirely phasing out biomass if CO2 sources are available”

31. We need much more
electricity in the future
Download rapports:
www.energyplan.eu/IDA
www.energyplan.eu/PVWind power should be
prioritised, supplemented by
PV and power plants
0
50
100
150
200
250
2015 ENS Vind 2050 IDA 2050
2015 2050
PrimaryEnergySupply(TWh/year)
Coal Oil Gas Biomass/waste
Onshore Offshore PV Wave/tidal
Geothermal Solar thermal

34. We have to use much more
electricity in the future
(flexibly)!
Elforbruget stiger til mere
end det dobbelte

35. How to use storages long term..
(in Smart energy markets)
Three crucial grids in Smart Energy Systems
Smart electricity grids
Smart thermal grids
Smart gas grids
Electricity storage in transport (batteries and electrofuels)
More district heating (and district cooling) with heat storages
Large heat pumps with high capacity (Power-to-heat – 50% operation time)
CHP, solar thermal, etc.
High capacity electrolyses (Power-to-gas – 50% operation time)
Production of green gasses and synthetic fuels (biogas and gasified biomass)
… and bioenergy on the input side.. W W W . S M A R T E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S . E U

37. Results from previous
work on Smart Energy
Europe

38. Results from previous
work on Smart Energy
Europe ….
…The overall system
design is crucial for the
overall economy

39. Thank you – f ollow me on LinkedIN or Tw it ter