DISASTER PREDICTION

Disaster Management (5584)-2020
DISASTER PREDICTION
“Natural hazard prediction / forecasting are a complex science, but whether the target is an earthquake,
landslide, hurricane, tornado or flood, the goal is simple: to figure out where and when the next one
will hit. Researchers analyze a mind-warping array of data that constantly stream from the sky, ocean
and earth, captured by everything from satellites to drones. Every area of prediction/forecasting has its
blind spots, and it will probably never be a perfect science, given the sheer complexity of the
geosphere.” (Reese, 2016)
There are three stages involved in prediction:
1. Collecting data
2. Analyzing data to assess the hazard
3. Translating data into warning, and disseminating it to the general public and the disaster task
force.
Many natural and manmade hazards can be predicted before their onset. In most cases technology
now makes it possible to act before disaster strikes. Predicting different disasters require different
methods, technologies and equipments.
Prediction is means for hazard assessment, warnings, and alert system. Most natural hazards are
linked to atmospheric and climate changes, which are predictable. Within industrial and commercial
settings many technological hazards can also be predicted using different alarm system. For example
it is possible to predict the onset of major storms or torrential rains and floods with fair accuracy,
often a few days in advance. (COL, 2004)
Some well-known international resources of prediction and forecast of natural hazards are:
 World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
 The World Weather Watch – for tropical storms
 Seismological facilities in various countries – for monitoring of earth movements
 The Tsunamis Centre at the Pacific Warning Centre in Honolulu
 National Meteorological Services
 National Seismological Services and Volcanological Services
 Sectoral Ministries and Departments
 Disaster Management focal points
National sources of prediction are:
 Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)
Forecasting weather helps in predicting hazards related to high winds, storms, sea surges, tsunamis,
high rainfall, flooding, and ice storm. Prediction of wind hazards (tropical cyclones, hurricanes,
typhoons) is based on climatology and persistence. Data is normally collected is upper wind flow
pattern at different heights. Surface isobaric patterns, satellite clouds imageries, and radar and radio
observations are the main tools used for weather forecasting. (COL, 2004)
According to WMO guidelines the following observations are made:
 Surface observations: It includes wind speed and direction; atmospheric pressure;
air temperature; clouds; visibility; rainfall; radiations; dew point temperature; and
ground temperature

 Sea observation: It includes sea surface temperature; wave speed; direction; period;
and swell.
 Upper air observation: It includes temperature and humidity at different heights and
pressure levels.
The sources of the majority of these observations are normally the meteorological stations on land.
Some observations at sea can be made by the merchant ships and research vessels. (COL, 2004)
Earthquake Prediction
 “ADVANCES: There have been incredible advances in the development of instruments and
the deployment of instruments on active fault zones, which has enabled a very fine-grained,
high-resolution study of where earthquakes occur. Scientists now have a much better
understanding of the entire earthquake cycle.”
 “CHALLENGES: Instrumentation may have advanced, but there are still dead zones, such as
the ocean floor. Developing sensors that can beam back data from the deep sea in real time
has proved difficult. And where scientists do closely track seismic activity, they can’t
pinpoint exactly when an earthquake will happen. But by studying previous quakes,
seismologists can calculate the probability of a future earthquake in the same area.”(Reese,
2016)
Landslide Prediction
 “ADVANCES: Computer models and landslide simulators- chute like contraptions into which
scientists unleash torrents of mud, water and debris- are yielding new clues about the complex
factors that contribute to slope collapse.”
 “CHALLENGES: Uncertainties about landslide dynamics aside, there’s little information on
which areas are most vulnerable to slides. Landslide hazard maps cover only about 1% of the
world’s slopes. But new remote-sensing techniques and improved analysis should help fill in
those blank spots on the map.”(Reese, 2016)
Volcano Prediction
 “ADVANCES: Scientists have made significant strides in understanding volcanic behavior in
recent years. That’s largely because of advances in seismic sensing and new ways to detect
volcanic activity, such as infrasound, which involves listening to seismic waves emanating
into the atmosphere.”
 “CHALLENGES: While researchers have studied some volcanic fields for decades, others,
such as one beneath Auckland, New Zealand, are poorly understood. Monitoring every
volcano near populated areas is a tall order, and there’s no global monitoring system like there
is for earthquakes.”(Reese, 2016)
Tornado Prediction
 “ADVANCES: Tornado prediction requires complex computer modeling that can take into
account the small shifts in storms that can send one whirling into a tornado. But the data
going into the model are limited. For instance, typical weather stations, which measure wind
speeds, temperature and humidity, can be far apart and only cover so much territory.
Scientists came up with an innovative solution to install dense networks of small radar
devices on rooftops and towers. Since they’re closer to the ground, these networks, which are
still in the trial stage, can pick up weather shifts that other systems miss. With distributed

radar added to meteorologists’ toolbox, the average 16-minute warning time for a tornado
could improve significantly.”
 “CHALLENGES: Scientists have more data and better models, but the best prediction still
rely on getting that info to the public in a way that compels action. Many people don’t know
the difference between a watch — where a tornado is possible — and a warning — where one
is on the ground. Forecasters must now balance data overload with communicating threats
across many platforms.” (Reese, 2016)
Hurricane Prediction
 “ADVANCES: Meteorologists can now predict a hurricane
two to six days out, giving communities more time to evacuate.
One of the biggest advances is the Coyote drone, a 7-pound
aerial vehicle packed with sensors and a GPS device. Dropped
from a plane, it slowly descends through the core of a storm, transmitting real-time data to the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Hurricane Research Division. These data
will help scientists figure out what’s going on in the center of a forming hurricane, which is
poorly understood.”
 “CHALLENGES: Forecasting where hurricanes will hit has improved, but meteorologists still
can’t predict intensity with any real certainty.”(Reese, 2016)
Flood Prediction
 “ADVANCES: Meteorologists can now detect precipitation changes at a smaller scale,
making it much easier to forecast flash floods. Rainfall estimates generated by the Multi-
Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system are plugged into a system called FLASH, which pairs
the MRMS estimates with information about soil type and vegetation. The system models
where the water will go and produces updates every few minutes — a key advantage given
that some areas can flood very quickly.”
 “CHALLENGES: Despite advances in flood forecasting, scientists still can’t join coastal and
inland data to stitch together a big-picture assessment of a region. The National Weather
Service tried to develop just such a holistic system, called CI Flow, which attempted to
combine hydrological data from river basins with coastal storm surge models, but the data
load proved too much for the agency’s computing capacity. The European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which has better computer power and more sophisticated
modeling than the U.S., shows the difference more processing power can make.”(Reese,
2016)

REACTIVE & PROACTIVE APPROACHES
“Disaster is a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread
human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the
affected community or society to cope using its own resources. Primarily disasters are triggered by
natural hazards or are human-induced, or as result from a combination of both.”(Drishti, 2019)
“In the traditional reactive disaster management approach, focus is on relief and rehabilitation in post
disaster scenario. A paradigm shift has now taken place in disaster management, replacing traditional
relief centric approach to holistic and integrated approach with emphasis on prevention, mitigation
and preparedness.”(Drishti, 2019)
The four phases of disaster are
(1) mitigation (2) preparedness (3) response and (4) recovery.
“This model helps frame issues related to disaster preparedness as well recovery after a disaster.”
“The major disadvantages of Reactive Approach to disaster management approach are:”
 “Enhanced loss of life and material: Reactive approaches focus on relief and immediate
rehabilitation and ignore preventive disaster reduction policies. Such an approach cause
higher amount of loss of life and material.”
 “Absence of adaptive approach to different type of disasters: For different types of
disasters response measures may vary, which is not possible in reactive approach to disasters.
Reactive approach remain ‘one size fits all’ approach to disaster.”
 “Absence of Early Warning Systems in reactive approach causes delayed response to
disaster. The provision of timely and reliable information, through identified institutions,
allows the community and the government machinery to reduce their risk and be prepared to
face the hazard is essential.”(Drishti, 2019)
“Advantages of Proactive Approach”
 “Saving lives: Statistical evidence suggests disaster prevention helps limiting loss of life to
disasters in a number of developed and developing countries.”
 “Protecting infrastructure and livelihoods: The cost of property damage from disasters is
prevented and curtailed through integrated disaster management approach emphasizing
prevention and mitigation.”

 “Protecting the environment: Increased disaster resilience in some cases been also helps in
protecting and preserve the natural environment.”(Drishti, 2019)
“Disaster does not emerge suddenly; it has a life cycle, which may take days, months or even decades
to develop depending on its causative factors. A disaster thus needs to be examined as it will allow
anticipating the crisis and thus preventing and mitigating it to the extent possible.”
“Crisis can also be mitigated through measures, like better enforcement of building codes and zoning
regulations, proper maintenance of drainage systems, better awareness and public education to
reduce the risks of hazards etc.”(Drishti, 2019)
“The number and severity of natural disasters have increased continuously over recent decades,
especially in developing countries. The World Bank has estimated that 97 percent of all human
deaths due to natural disasters occur in these countries. The geographical situation and people’s
unawareness and lack of preparedness in developing countries are among the main causes which
make them suffer more severely from the effects of natural disasters. Meanwhile, the reaction and
response to disasters have been more reactive than proactive in almost all disaster prone countries,
particularly the underdeveloped and developing ones.” (Izadkhah & Hosseini, 2008)
“There is a need to reverse the trend of increasing worldwide vulnerability, by providing …”
 “access to knowledge and technology”,
 “increasing the public awareness”, and
 “considering the safety measures”
… as the main and key factors in development.
“Based on the existing evidence, most of the time, these vulnerabilities are the results of the human
errors rather than the nature’s forces. And therefore, suggested developed and implemented proactive
tools can help the vulnerable communities to protect themselves, their livelihoods and settlements
from the impacts of disastrous natural hazards.” (Izadkhah & Hosseini, 2008)
REFERENCES
COL. (2004). E9 Disaster Management. Vancouver: Commonwealth of Learning.
Drishti. (2019). Mains practice questions. Retrieved from https://www.drishtiias.com/mains-practice-question/question-32
Izadkhah, Y. O. & Hosseini, M. (2008). Using Proactive Means in Reducing Vulnerability to Natural Disasters.
In Proceedings of the 14th
World Conference on Earthquake Engineering.
Reese, A. (2016, July 28). How We'll Predict the Next Natural Disaster. Discover Magazine. Retrieved from
https://www.discovermagazine.com/planet-earth/how-well-predict-the-next-natural-disaster

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