Demographic trends are occurring globally that will reshape the world's population dynamics over the coming decades. Some key trends highlighted in the document include:
1) The world population is expected to increase by 50% to over 9 billion by 2050, driven largely by growth in developing countries.
2) Societies will split into aging populations in industrial countries versus rising youthful populations in developing nations. The global share and political/economic influence of developing nations will increase substantially.
3) Emerging markets will become increasingly important as the "workbench of the world" due to their large working age populations, while industrial nations face challenges of aging workforces and rising pension costs.
4) Investors should
A comprehensive presentation about population, for the AS level, using all the important definitions necessary for the exam: distribution and density, population changes, population structure, models, trends in population growth, optimum, over and under population, theories relating to world population and food supply and the demographic transition model. Case studies: Kenya, USA, Denmark, China.
A comprehensive presentation about population, for the AS level, using all the important definitions necessary for the exam: distribution and density, population changes, population structure, models, trends in population growth, optimum, over and under population, theories relating to world population and food supply and the demographic transition model. Case studies: Kenya, USA, Denmark, China.
Global Population and Mobility
- The Global City
- Global Demography
- Global Migration
- OFWs
Contemporary World
For educational purposes only. No rights to information and pictures.
GEOGRAPHY IGCSE: POPULATION DYNAMICS. It contains: increase in the world's population, over and under population, anti and pro-natalist policies, China's one child policy, France population strategies, Bristol case study.
GEOGRAPHY IGCSE: POPULATION DENSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONGeorge Dumitrache
GEOGRAPHY IGCSE: POPULATION DENSITY AND DISTRIBUTION. It contains: factors influencing the density and distribution, case studies: Singapore and Sahel.
Causes and Consequences of Rapid Population GrowthUnica Chiara
Well, I'm not used of using too much words in my slides instead I used more pictures for clearer representation and just its title. I just emphasize those important details. And I hope this could help you out! Good luck! :)
Class 12th Chapter 2(the world population) Geography Book Fundamentals of Human Development Complete Explanation of all concept of NCERT class 12th
It is easy to understand
All concept are taken under Guidance of Mrs Kavita Chabbra
GEOGRAPHY IGCSE: POPULATION STRUCTURE. Types of population structure. Population pyramids. Demographic transition model. Case studies: UK (MEDC) and MOZAMBIQUE (LEDC).
An Insight into the demographic trends of India using various demographic indicators ( Sex Ratio,Dependency Ratio, Urbanization, Family Size, Literacy Rate and Life Expectancy).
There is also brief introduction of basics of demography along with the demographic cycle.
Global Population and Mobility
- The Global City
- Global Demography
- Global Migration
- OFWs
Contemporary World
For educational purposes only. No rights to information and pictures.
GEOGRAPHY IGCSE: POPULATION DYNAMICS. It contains: increase in the world's population, over and under population, anti and pro-natalist policies, China's one child policy, France population strategies, Bristol case study.
GEOGRAPHY IGCSE: POPULATION DENSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONGeorge Dumitrache
GEOGRAPHY IGCSE: POPULATION DENSITY AND DISTRIBUTION. It contains: factors influencing the density and distribution, case studies: Singapore and Sahel.
Causes and Consequences of Rapid Population GrowthUnica Chiara
Well, I'm not used of using too much words in my slides instead I used more pictures for clearer representation and just its title. I just emphasize those important details. And I hope this could help you out! Good luck! :)
Class 12th Chapter 2(the world population) Geography Book Fundamentals of Human Development Complete Explanation of all concept of NCERT class 12th
It is easy to understand
All concept are taken under Guidance of Mrs Kavita Chabbra
GEOGRAPHY IGCSE: POPULATION STRUCTURE. Types of population structure. Population pyramids. Demographic transition model. Case studies: UK (MEDC) and MOZAMBIQUE (LEDC).
An Insight into the demographic trends of India using various demographic indicators ( Sex Ratio,Dependency Ratio, Urbanization, Family Size, Literacy Rate and Life Expectancy).
There is also brief introduction of basics of demography along with the demographic cycle.
A R T I C L E STHE AGING OF THE WORLD’S POPULATION AND ITS.docxransayo
A R T I C L E S
THE AGING OF THE WORLD’S POPULATION AND ITS
EFFECTS ON GLOBAL BUSINESS
MASUD CHAND
Wichita State University
ROSALIE L. TUNG
Simon Fraser University
The rapid aging of the world’s population will bring unprecedented and important
changes in the global economic environment, creating unique challenges and oppor-
tunities for businesses worldwide. These challenges and opportunities span multiple
business areas, including strategy, human resources, cross-cultural management, and
marketing, while operating simultaneously at the functional, corporate, and public
policy levels nationally and internationally. In this paper, we first present an overview
of the aging situation globally and the challenges that result from it. Then we explain
some of the reasons behind demographic shifts in different countries, and how a
graying population affects macroeconomic systems. Finally, we analyze the implica-
tions for businesses, in terms of both opportunities and challenges, and provide
insights on how businesses can cope with these changes. We explain our findings
through several themes that emerge from our research and discuss their implications
for global businesses.
Declining birthrates and rising life expectancies
in many countries are causing a seismic demo-
graphic transformation, and this transformation—
the rapid aging of the world’s population—is bring-
ing about unparalleled changes in the global
business environment in terms of business oppor-
tunities, workforce productivity, cross-cultural
management, marketing, macroeconomic public
policies, and corporate strategy. According to the
United Nations World Population Aging Report
(UN Population Division, 2005), this process is tak-
ing place in all but 18 countries (mostly in sub-
Saharan Africa). For most of human history, the
elderly (those over 65) have never exceeded 3% or
4% of a country’s population. In today’s developed
world, they comprise roughly 15% of the popula-
tion. By 2050, this could reach 25% on average
(Center for Strategic and International Studies,
2011). The aging of the population in most coun-
tries of the world is leading to important changes in
the global economic environment— changes that
create unique and unprecedented challenges and
opportunities for businesses.
Aging occurs when the median age of a country
or region rises due to prolonged life expectancy
and/or declining birthrates. While aging is a world-
wide phenomenon, its effects have been dramati-
cally evident in developed countries so far: The
overall median age in developed countries (corre-
sponding figures for the world as a whole appear in
parentheses) rose from 29.0 (23.9) in 1950 to 39.6
(28.1) in 2009, and is forecasted to rise to 45.5
(37.8) by 2050. In addition, the pace of aging is
projected to accelerate in developing countries: By
2050, the worldwide population of people over 60
will reach two billion, three-quarters of whom
will be from developing countries (Australian In-
stitu.
Will Stock Markets survive in 200 years?Gaetan Lion
This study uncovers 11 international stock markets that are already running into existing and prospective demographic and economic growth constraints. This study evaluates their respective fragile long term viability and the implications this has for the investors in such countries.
VN stelt vervangingsmigratie als superoplossing voorThierry Debels
De Verenigde Naties stelt wereldwijd vervangingsmigratie (replacement migration) voor als oplossing voor een afnemende bevolking. De enige vraag is hoeveel migranten er per land nodig zijn.
Considered both the future of society, the future of the people, the way of the future of education in a multi-stakeholder, the activities of the order to continue to create "Future Education Consortium" is, in fiscal 2015, such as consumers and companies · NPO / NGO · Students through the co-creation projects by various participants "21 Century Future Enterprise Project", we derive the "social and companies of the future scenario of 2030".
http://miraikk.jp/cat-03/2882
Ons rapport identificeert een vijfstappenplan om wereldwijde groei van vacatures te stimuleren.
http://haysoxfordeconomics.clikpages.co.uk/globalreport2011/
How declining populations can effect productivity -- PROJECT MOpen Knowledge
How will Germany's declining population effect productivity? To maintain today's productivity, there are three options: increase the labor force through immigration and underemployed groups; increase the number of years or hours worked; embrace automation. Otherwise Germany could lose a 6th of its productivity by 2035.
Impact of the Euro debt crisis on the investment behavior of 50+ European Inv...Open Knowledge
Allianz International Pensions conducted a survey in seven European countries among wealthier people aged between 50 and 70. Countries included were Austria, France,
Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland and the United Kingdom (UK). The main objective of the survey was to analyze the ideas of the 50+ generation about retirement income, planning for retirement and financial topics most relevant to this clientele in a financial environment characterized by uncertainty and volatility. In this report we focus on those results which address the recent financial developments, namely the euro debt crisis.
Allianz Risk Pulse: Zukunft der indivduellen MobilitätOpen Knowledge
Neben dem technologischen Fortschritt wird auch das Konsumentenverhalten
die Mobilität grundlegend verändern. Das eigene Auto verliert seine Bedeutung als Statussymbol. Lesen Sie mehr im Allianz Risk Pulse: Zukunft der individuellen Mobilität.
Allianz Risk Pulse: The Future of Individual MobilityOpen Knowledge
The nature of mobility is changing at incredible speed.
Ongoing trends like urbanization, rising fuel costs, environmental
consciousness, an aging society and digitalization
have influenced mobility highly and will continue to do so in
the future. Today’s consumers behave in a different way than
even a few years ago and the car is losing its relevance as a
status symbol.
Allianz Demographic Pulse | Retirement | March 2013Open Knowledge
After a decade of pension reforms in Western Europe and the establishment of new systems in Eastern Europe and Asia, the structure of a retirement income has begun to change. This paper summarizes the
driving forces behind this transformation and describes the new mix of sources of retirement income of households in selected countries.
Das Factbook zur Nachhaltigkeit zeigt die Aktivitäten der Allianz in den drei für das Kerngeschäft relevanten Bereichen: Zugang zu Finanzdienstleistungen, Klimawandel und demografischer Wandel.
As a global financial services provider, Allianz's business success is heavily affected by a variety of global, long-term issues. In this Sustainability Factbook, Allianz presents their ongoing activities relating to the three global issues that are most relevant to the core business: access to finance, climate change and demographic change.
The first of a series of investigations made by Allianz Global Investors deals with changes of the Dutch retirement system driven by fiscal pressure and the current low yield environment.
In RiskMonitor, Allianz Global Investors (AllianzGI) together with Investment & Pensions Europe (IPE) magazine surveys European institutional investors’ perceptions of capital market, regulatory and governance risk.
Learn about the expiring tax breaks and automatic spending cuts scheduled to take effect at the end of 2012 in the United States, including the forecasted economic impact and where Democrats and Republicans stand.
Fears of the U.S. economy falling off a “fiscal cliff” have been percolating among investors, conjuring up frightening images of a deep recession. But the chances of it actually happening in its entirety are slim, say Allianz experts.
The Allianz Center for Technology’s Risk Pulse report assesses the state of road safety worldwide and spells out the components of a culture of safety to reduce global accident risks.
PIMCO DC Dialogue - First Manage Your RiskOpen Knowledge
In this PIMCO DC Dialogue, Professor Zvi Bodie, Norman and Adele Barron Professor of Management at Boston University, discusses with global investment managers PIMCO the difficulties people in the United States have assessing risk accurately, the attitude to risk they should adopt when it comes to retirement planning, and investment strategies for professionals and individuals alike, beginning with low-risk assets such as Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.
Allianz Life North America – Reclaiming the FutureOpen Knowledge
In a comprehensive survey of U.S baby boomers, coupled with in-depth interviews with financial professionals, Allianz reveals the boomers’ attitudes to retirement planning, their expectations and strategies, and identifies five distinct financial “personalities”.
Reduced sources of income, greater longevity, and market volatility together present a major challenge to the baby boomer generation’s hopes and expectations for a comfortable retirement with guaranteed income, and are forcing them to rethink retirement
In this white paper, Allianz assesses this generation’s response and reveals several key findings which do provide some cause for optimism, in particular the many options Americans have at their disposal to address the three key challenges the baby boomers face.
Allianz Life North America – Rethinking What’s Ahead in RetirementOpen Knowledge
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How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17Celine George
It is possible to hide or invisible some fields in odoo. Commonly using “invisible” attribute in the field definition to invisible the fields. This slide will show how to make a field invisible in odoo 17.
The Roman Empire A Historical Colossus.pdfkaushalkr1407
The Roman Empire, a vast and enduring power, stands as one of history's most remarkable civilizations, leaving an indelible imprint on the world. It emerged from the Roman Republic, transitioning into an imperial powerhouse under the leadership of Augustus Caesar in 27 BCE. This transformation marked the beginning of an era defined by unprecedented territorial expansion, architectural marvels, and profound cultural influence.
The empire's roots lie in the city of Rome, founded, according to legend, by Romulus in 753 BCE. Over centuries, Rome evolved from a small settlement to a formidable republic, characterized by a complex political system with elected officials and checks on power. However, internal strife, class conflicts, and military ambitions paved the way for the end of the Republic. Julius Caesar’s dictatorship and subsequent assassination in 44 BCE created a power vacuum, leading to a civil war. Octavian, later Augustus, emerged victorious, heralding the Roman Empire’s birth.
Under Augustus, the empire experienced the Pax Romana, a 200-year period of relative peace and stability. Augustus reformed the military, established efficient administrative systems, and initiated grand construction projects. The empire's borders expanded, encompassing territories from Britain to Egypt and from Spain to the Euphrates. Roman legions, renowned for their discipline and engineering prowess, secured and maintained these vast territories, building roads, fortifications, and cities that facilitated control and integration.
The Roman Empire’s society was hierarchical, with a rigid class system. At the top were the patricians, wealthy elites who held significant political power. Below them were the plebeians, free citizens with limited political influence, and the vast numbers of slaves who formed the backbone of the economy. The family unit was central, governed by the paterfamilias, the male head who held absolute authority.
Culturally, the Romans were eclectic, absorbing and adapting elements from the civilizations they encountered, particularly the Greeks. Roman art, literature, and philosophy reflected this synthesis, creating a rich cultural tapestry. Latin, the Roman language, became the lingua franca of the Western world, influencing numerous modern languages.
Roman architecture and engineering achievements were monumental. They perfected the arch, vault, and dome, constructing enduring structures like the Colosseum, Pantheon, and aqueducts. These engineering marvels not only showcased Roman ingenuity but also served practical purposes, from public entertainment to water supply.
Honest Reviews of Tim Han LMA Course Program.pptxtimhan337
Personal development courses are widely available today, with each one promising life-changing outcomes. Tim Han’s Life Mastery Achievers (LMA) Course has drawn a lot of interest. In addition to offering my frank assessment of Success Insider’s LMA Course, this piece examines the course’s effects via a variety of Tim Han LMA course reviews and Success Insider comments.
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This Gasta posits a strategic approach to integrating AI into HEIs to prepare staff, students and the curriculum for an evolving world and workplace. We will highlight the advantages of working with these technologies beyond the realm of teaching, learning and assessment by considering prompt engineering skills, industry impact, curriculum changes, and the need for staff upskilling. In contrast, not engaging strategically with Generative AI poses risks, including falling behind peers, missed opportunities and failing to ensure our graduates remain employable. The rapid evolution of AI technologies necessitates a proactive and strategic approach if we are to remain relevant.
2024.06.01 Introducing a competency framework for languag learning materials ...Sandy Millin
http://sandymillin.wordpress.com/iateflwebinar2024
Published classroom materials form the basis of syllabuses, drive teacher professional development, and have a potentially huge influence on learners, teachers and education systems. All teachers also create their own materials, whether a few sentences on a blackboard, a highly-structured fully-realised online course, or anything in between. Despite this, the knowledge and skills needed to create effective language learning materials are rarely part of teacher training, and are mostly learnt by trial and error.
Knowledge and skills frameworks, generally called competency frameworks, for ELT teachers, trainers and managers have existed for a few years now. However, until I created one for my MA dissertation, there wasn’t one drawing together what we need to know and do to be able to effectively produce language learning materials.
This webinar will introduce you to my framework, highlighting the key competencies I identified from my research. It will also show how anybody involved in language teaching (any language, not just English!), teacher training, managing schools or developing language learning materials can benefit from using the framework.
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The French Revolution, which began in 1789, was a period of radical social and political upheaval in France. It marked the decline of absolute monarchies, the rise of secular and democratic republics, and the eventual rise of Napoleon Bonaparte. This revolutionary period is crucial in understanding the transition from feudalism to modernity in Europe.
For more information, visit-www.vavaclasses.com
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Model Attribute Check Company Auto PropertyCeline George
In Odoo, the multi-company feature allows you to manage multiple companies within a single Odoo database instance. Each company can have its own configurations while still sharing common resources such as products, customers, and suppliers.
3. Analyses & Trends
Demography: a global trend
People are living longer, the world population is growing. In the
newly industrialising countries in particular, rapid population
growth is going hand-in-hand with a powerful economic momen-
tum. Seen in the right light, demography as a global trend beco-
mes an investment opportunity.
Demography is a trend of worldwide dimen- · The industrial nations will experience a
sions. According to the medium variant of considerably less dynamic growth than the
the population forecast by the United developing and emerging market countries.
Nations (UN) from a bird’s eye view, two
main developments are becoming apparent: · The industrial countries’ share of the world
population will decline from close to 19 %
· Up to the year 2050, the world population in 2005 to 14 % in 2050; that of the less deve-
will probably increase further by almost loped countries will stagnate at approx.
50 % to more than 9 billion people. Only for 68 %, whereas the least developed countries
Europe is a decline to be reckoned with (cf. will see their share climb from almost 12 %
Chart 1, p. 3). to 19 % (cf. Chart 2, p. 4).
· There will be a “double ageing” (cf. Chart 1, · At the same time, the industrial states will
p. 3): While human life expectancy will go age by far the fastest rate. The average age
on rising on the whole, the share of older in the industrial states is likely to be
people in terms of the world population around 46 years in the year 2050. In 2005, it
will increase at the same time because fer- was 39 and in 1950 it was only 29 years. In
tility rates are expected to decline over the industrialising countries, by contrast,
time, i.e. the number of new-born children it is expected to rise from 27 (in 2005) to 39
per woman will decrease. over the same period, and from 19 to 27 in
the developing countries.
Within these main trends, however, develop-
ments will vary considerably from one coun- · Whereas pensioners will dominate the
try to the next: world (cf. Chart 4, p. 5), the developing and
Chart 1: Demography: A global trend (Population in million people)
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Africa Asia Europe Latin-America North-America
2005 2020 2050
Source: UN, Population Division
3
4. Analyses & Trends
Chart 2: Population growth by age categories (in millions)
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
under 15 years 15 to 64 years over 64 years
Source: UN World Population Prospects, 2004 Revision
industrialising countries will increasingly development will be significantly more Industrialising countries
become the “workbench” of the world (cf. dramatic in the industrial countries, as the will increasingly become
Chart 5, p. 5). These countries already share of pensioners in terms of the overall the „workbench“ of the
account for the lion’s share of the populati- population will rise more quickly (cf. Chart world.
on between 15 and 64 years, the age catego- 6, p. 6).
ry which – at least statistically speaking –
is equated with the working-age share of · The old-age dependency ratio in the USA
the population; and this age group will will rise over the next 45 years from 19 % to
gain further in importance until 2050 (cf. 34 %, in the EU from 26 % to 48 % and in
Chart 5, p. 5) – at least in absolute figures. Japan from 30 % to 65 %.
· The so-called old-age dependency ratio – · The prospects for Africa and Asia are diffe-
the ratio of the population aged 65 years or rent. In Africa, the old-age dependency
over to the population aged 15-64 – will ratio will rise from only 6 % to 10 %; in Asia
continue to widen worldwide. However, the from 10 % to 27 %.
Chart 3: The industrial nations’ contribution to population growth on the decline –
Share in population growth 1950 to 2025
100 %
90 %
80 %
70 %
60 %
50 %
40 %
30 %
20 %
10 %
0%
1950–1975 1976–2000 2001–2025
Industrial Countries Emerging Markets Developing Countries
Source: UN World Population Prospects, 2004 Revision
4
5. Analyses & Trends
Chart 4: Pensioners dominate the world
Share of population over 64 years by level of economic development (in %)
30 %
25 %
20 %
15 %
10 %
5%
0%
Industrial Countries Emerging Markets Developing Countries
2005 2050
Source: UN World Population Prospects, 2004 Revision
Chart 5: Emerging markets as the global workbench
Age categories by level of economic development (Population in million people)
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2005 2050 2005 2050 2005 2050
under 15 years 15 to 64 years over 64 years
Industrial Countries Emerging Markets Developing Countries
Source: UN World Population Prospects, 2004 Revision
Whereas one part of the globe will for the · through investments in regions with The world will split into
most part grow older, the other will stay above-average growth potential, where the ageing and rising societies
comparatively young and the population demographic trend is likely to have the
will increase further. Viewed from this per- most advantageous effect, and/or
spective, the world will split into ageing and
rising societies. · in companies which are still domiciled in
the ageing countries, but whose sales mar-
The motto: Invest more globally: kets are to a large extent in the less develo-
ped countries or which stand to profit from
· Parts of the money should be invested the trend of an ageing society.
where growth occurs and is going to occur.
But not only that. Under the aspect of the
· In the simplest case, this can be done with global demographic trend, investments that
a globally investing portfolio (e.g. a global- warrant closer consideration include
ly investing fund) and/or
5
6. Analyses & Trends
Chart 6: World population in need of rejuvenation treatment
Age categories by level of economic development (in %)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005 2050 2005 2050 2005 2050
under15 years 15 to 64 years over 64 years
Industrial Countries Emerging Markets Developing Countries
Source: UN World Population Prospects, 2004 Revision
· stocks of energy and other commodities Demographic profiteers
that are becoming increasingly scarce as
demand rises, and Example: BRIC. Brazil, Russia, India and
China are behind this investment philoso-
· biotechnology and pharmaceutical stocks phy. The philosophy of these four letters can
which stand to profit, above all, from an be summed up in a few words: Brazil stands
ageing population, but also from an incre- for commodities, Russia for gas and oil,
ase of wealth in the developing world. India for software and China for a voracious
appetite for growth and a vast army of con-
· Since the newly industrialising nations are sumers.
typically characterised by urbanisation
and strong economic growth, investments But that is far from all. The sheer population
in infrastructure and transport may pre- figures of these four countries are in them-
sent a further investment opportunity. selves impressive. In 2012, the total popula-
tion is likely to be close to three billion peo-
Thus, there will not only be shifts in demand ple. To compare: The seven leading
within certain sectors – e.g. because in the industrial nations will, together, account for
pharmaceutical sector there is a demand for a population of close to 750 million in the
more drugs for an ageing population – but years ahead – only a quarter as many peo-
also an additional demand that will concen- ple. Whereas the G7 population will, from
trate on a number of sectors and will be dri- 1960 until then, have risen by 50 %, that of
ven by the rising societies. the BRIC states will have doubled. Not only
that. The relationship in terms of economic
This means that anyone investing in the glo- strength will also go on changing (cf. Chart
bal demographic trend will always ask him- 7, p. 7).
self: How can I profit from it? Is an invest- Whereas the G7 in 1960 generated, at USD
ment especially attractive because it profits 2.6 trillion, five times what the BRIC states
from the rising societies or because it profits produced, by 2012 they will probably be
from the ageing societies? barely 10 % ahead of the “Fantastic Four” in
terms of economic performance. By then,
In the following we will take a closer look at the gross domestic product generated by the
some potential investment opportunities BRIC states together should be more than
that may number among the demographic USD 18 trillion (cf. Chart 8, p. 7). These
profiteers. figures take the impact of inflation into
6
7. Analyses & Trends
Chart 7: B R I C – The Fantastic Four. Chart 8: B R I C – The Fantastic Four.
Population trend (in millions) US$ GDP (US$ bn) in real terms (price basis
1990), purchasing power adjusted
1960 1980 2005 2012 1960 1980 2005 2012
721 756 16,624 19,843
502 601 10,728
2,666
G7 G7
2,733 2,981 18,254
2,055 4,952 11,529
1,381 551
BRIC
BRIC
Source: World Bank, own calculations based on forecasts of Source: GGDC, own calculations based on forecasts of Allianz
Allianz Economic Research Economic Research
account and presuppose a lasting growth the trend is headed (cf. Chart 9, p. 8). The
trend for both groups of countries. Please International Monetary Fund’s predictions
note: This economic performance calculati- for the “Middle Kingdom” apply in like man-
on is based on the actual purchasing power ner to the emerging market states as a
in the respective countries, because what whole.
ultimately counts is what the people can
actually afford. Only that has any relevance
Environment:
for demand.
a resource in short supply
Energy & commodities The “classical” commodities such as oil, gas,
industrial metals and so forth are becoming
At the end of the demand chain driven by
increasingly scarce. Based on the present-
population and economic growth are com-
day (!) global consumption of fossil fuels
modities.
(coal, mineral oil, natural gas), the world
Yet demand for commodities is not rising „The World is not
reserves of crude oil will probably last ano-
purely on account of world population enough.“
ther 60 years, of gas roughly 70 years and of
growth (quantitative). There is also a “quali-
coal over 200 years. Climatic change, too, is
tative” growth: as affluence rises, consump-
increasingly making itself felt. For example,
tion will also become more commodity-
it is evident that the number of extreme
intensive.
weather events (storms, flooding etc.), cau-
The World Bank is predicting that the low-
sing corresponding large-scale damage, has
income countries will grow twice as quickly
jumped continuously over the past decades.
in the coming decades as the countries with
During the 1950s, 13 such weather events
high incomes (in real terms). The pent-up
were counted, compared with as many as 72
demand is vast. The following concrete
in the 1990s. One might say the world is not
figures demonstrate this vividly (base year:
enough; there is not enough environment to
2004). On average, a German consumes six-
go around. It, too, is becoming a short-sup-
teen kilos of processed aluminium per year,
ply resource – making it, directly or indi-
a Chinese only two kilos. The ratio is similar
rectly, an investment opportunity.
for copper. An American consumes twenty-
six barrels (over 4,000 litres) of oil per year
Energy and environmental shortages are
compared with a Mexican at somewhat
making it more and more imperative that we
more than six barrels and a Chinese just
use renewable energy technologies. These
short of two.
offer the advantage that they not only replace Investment opportunity:
The surge in per capita consumption of
costly oil but are also, ideally, CO2 neutral: alternative energies,
industrial metals in China illustrates where
while burning, they emit only as much CO2 as recycling & “water”
7
8. Analyses & Trends
Chart 9: Per capita consumption of various industrial metals in China (kg/inhabitant)
250 6
5
200
4
150
3
100
2
50
1
0 0
1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005
Steel Aluminium Copper
IWF World Economic Outlook 2006
Steel: left-hand axis
they took out of the environment on the way, The mountain of waste is likely to continue
say, to becoming bio-diesel. rising with population and economic
A gigantic, growing market. The World Ener- growth. According to estimates by the OECD,
gy Council estimates that the market for the gross domestic product of the nations it
renewable energies will be worth USD 635 represents is set to rise by a factor of 2.4 bet-
billion in 2010. By 2020, it is forecast to grow ween 1980 and 2020, whereas the waste to be
to USD 1.9 trillion. According to a scenario handled by the local waste disposal service
analysis, the “Scientific Advisory Council on is likely to swell by a factor of 2. During the
Global Environmental Changes” is expec- same period, the population of the OECD is
ting the share of the global energy mix expected to grow by 20 %. “Waste” as a Recycling as an invest-
accounted for by renewable energies to growth industry. Recycling as an investment ment topic.
expand to 50 % by the year 2050. topic.
And: The scarcer resources become, the
Water:
more valuable will become what in the past
has been referred to as waste. Recycling is a resource in short supply
gaining ground. The amount of waste gene-
rated per capita brings home the dimensi- Let’s not forget water. At first glance, there is
ons of the waste mountains that surround no shortage of water. Two-thirds of Earth is
us. The USA tops the table. For the average covered by water. 1,400 million km³ water
American, the local waste disposal service are spread across our proverbial blue planet.
takes away 730 kg per year compared with But somewhat more than 97 % of it is
590 kg for a German, 410 kg for a Japanese undrinkable sea-water and only approx. 3 %
and 270 kg for a Pole. Yet household refuse is is drinking water. And of that, in turn,
only one cause of the global waste moun- roughly two-thirds are bound up in ice and
tain. snow at the Antarctic and in Greenland –
The total waste produced by the OECD coun- and are therefore not accessible. Of the
tries weighed approx. 4 trillion tons at the remaining one percent, the greater part is
turn of the year 2006/2007. Yet the greater polluted. The World Bank estimates that
part was not accounted for by household only 0.01 % of all the water on Earth is drin-
garbage (16 %) but by industrial waste, which king water. As the song goes: “Water, water
made up 77 % of all waste generated. Agricul- everywhere, but not a drop to drink.”
ture accounted for 7 %. Today, 80 countries in the world with 40 % of
8
9. Analyses & Trends
the world’s population suffer from a serious Summa Oeconomica
shortage of water. And the world population
will keep on rising. By the year 2020, water The world population is growing and
needs are expected to rise by 40 %. To com- ageing.
pare: Between 1900 and 2000, water needs
rose tenfold. The shortage of water will Developments differ: The industrial states
become increasingly severe; at the same are ageing faster than the emerging mar-
time, the supply of clean water will gain in kets. At the same time, the population
importance. The supply and disposal of there will continue to grow significantly
water is becoming more and more of an more quickly and longer than in the “old”
investment topic. According to World Bank or ageing societies.
estimates, the need for investment in the
developing countries alone amounts to USD Whereas the ageing societies are likely to
30 billion per year in order to achieve the become less significant as production
millennium target of halving the share of locations, the rising societies will gain in
people without adequate access to fresh importance. Thus, the growing population
water by 2015. with a large share of younger workers will
coincide with strong economic growth.
Resources are becoming increasingly scarce.
Not only driven by the world population
growth, but also by a „qualitative“ growth, as
consumption will also become more com-
modity-intensive.
Demography is a global trend that pre-
sents a wealth of investment opportuni-
ties.
hjn
10. Analyses & Trends
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Capital Market Analyses
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10