Global aging demographics will place sharply higher demands on global capital markets in coming decades. The number of retirees is projected to more than double by 2050, growing from 8% to 18% of the world's population. This will require massive increases in retirement income - S&P Capital IQ estimates over a 20-fold increase for India and over a 15-fold increase for China. With retiree populations increasing 40-205% across countries by 2050, retirees will become a much larger portion of capital market participants globally. Meeting these retirement income needs will depend on growth in personal savings, financial market capitalization, and reasonable average returns.

1. Global Aging Demographics Will Place Sharply Higher
Demands On The Global Capital Markets In Coming Decades
• Retirees are projected to grow from 8% of the worldwide population in 2014 to 18% of the
population by 2050.
• S&P Capital IQ estimates a more than 20-fold increase in projected per capita retirement
income for India, a 15-fold increase for China, and well over 100% for the U.S., U.K., and
Germany by 2050.
• With senior populations across a wide span of selected nations set to increase an estimated
40% to 205% in coming decades, as a demographic investor class, retirees appear set to
become a much larger representation of sovereign and global financial market participants
• Global retirement income needs can conceivably be met via responsible levels of personal
savings, conservative financial market capitalization growth rate assumptions, and reasonable
average rates of return from global stock and bond markets
As the global economy becomes increasingly integrated, we suspect that individual sovereign
income and consumption trends will gradually become increasingly homogenous over time. For
instance, China's per capital income of $4,521 in 2010 is basically in line with the $4,870 the
U.S. experienced in 1970 (not adjusted for inflation). We expect that China will make great
strides toward narrowing the existing income gap versus more-developed countries in coming
decades as China's economy maintains its ascent, similar to what transpired in Germany and the
U.K. relative to the U.S. in the 1970s through the 1990s (see table 1).
Market Intellect
January 27, 2016
Michael G Thompson
Managing Director
S&P Capital IQ
(1) 212-438-3480
michael.thompson@spcapitaliq.com
Robert A Keiser
Vice President
S&P Capital IQ
(1) 212-438-3540
robert.keiser@spcapitaliq.com
Jaseem Hasib
Vice President
S&P Capital IQ
(1) 212-438-1158
jaseem.hasib@spcapitaliq.com
Steven Krull, PhD
Lead Quantitative Analyst
S&P Capital IQ
(1) 212-438-1767
steven.krull@standardandpoors.com
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2. Table 1
Sovereign Per Capita Income
Japan (current $) China (current $) India (current $) U.S. (current $) U.K. (current $) Germany (current $)
1/1/1970 2,015 114 114 4,870 2,264 2,686
1/1/1980 9,403 196 271 12,009 9,502 11,802
1/1/1990 25,603 318 369 22,539 17,391 21,872
1/1/2000 38,180 946 446 35,753 24,969 22,708
1/1/2010 44,493 4,521 1,364 47,039 36,431 40,339
1/1/2013 40,317 6,947 1,490 54,298 42,616 46,615
Source: The World Bank.
As multiple sovereign income gaps gradually diminish as the global economy becomes more integrated and mature, we
also hypothesize that cumulative postretirement investment-income needs will grow at a rate that far exceeds that of
global GDP growth. This trend will be driven by a growing number of individuals, in both developed and emerging
economic zones, who seek to maintain a quality postretirement lifestyle that will be at least partially funded by
preretirement life savings, which in turn enable sufficient postretirement investment income. Think of this trend as a
massive expansion of the 401(k) defined-contribution retirement account framework that has come to dominate the U.S.
corporate landscape during the past 30 years. These trends are likely to be further accentuated by global demographic
trends that include lengthening lifespans, upward income mobility stemming from rising worker productivity and
increased global free trade, and the general acceptance and spread of free market capitalism across the globe.
Developed economies have witnessed a longstanding trend in which labor steadily migrates away from segmented and
local-based mercantile economic structures and small family-run farms in rural areas toward higher population regions
and major cities. This progression originated as a response to industrialization to secure employment in factories and
related service industries focused on supporting growing urban-center populations. After industrialization, individuals
continued to migrate toward higher density population centers to attend college before entering the increasingly
service-oriented economy. This labor force transformation has given rise to the information and technology-based
economy that is literally tearing down geographic economic barriers worldwide at an accelerating pace. Simultaneously,
this new economy is instituting a significantly less hazardous and physically abusive working environment that also
contributes to personal longevity, rising labor productivity, and a growing worldwide population of retirees and senior
citizens (65 years and older).
The aforementioned developments, coupled with significant improvements in the medical care delivery system that has
benefitted from great strides in technology, which is concurrently more accessible than ever before, is increasing life
expectancy worldwide and thus the growing need for postretirement income. Retirement nest eggs will likely take on
different characteristics depending on stages of underlying geographic economic advancement and access to developed
financial markets.
We have investigated, analyzed, and provided approximate estimates of the growth rates of cumulative savings and global
financial market capitalization required to ensure adequate financial support for what will likely be a rapidly rising
population of global retirees who will want to maintain some semblance of the quality of life they established during their
employment years.
Global Aging Demographics Will Place Sharply Higher Demands On The Global Capital Markets In
Coming Decades
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3. Prospective Retirement-Age Population Growth
World Bank population data, including retirement-age population projections, present some surprisingly consistent
demographic aging trends for the countries selected. Retirees are projected to grow to 18% of the population by 2050
from 8% of the worldwide population in 2014. Even in countries such as Japan, China, and Germany that are projected
to see general population declines, seniors are still expected to become a larger portion of the overall population. Japan
currently has the highest relative population of seniors, but by 2050, China, Germany, and the U.K. will join Japan with
more than a quarter of their population being aged 65 years or older. Considering expectations that the global population
of seniors will more than double in the next 35 years, we should note that none of the 228 countries listed in the World
Bank database with 2050 projections is expected to register a percentage decline in its senior population by the year 2050.
Table 2
Population Statistics
2014 population
(mil.)
2014 population
above 65 (%)
2050 population
(mil.)
2050 population
above 65 (%)
Population
growth (%)
Population growth of
65 years and older (%)
China 1,364.3 9 1,337.8 28 (1.9) 204.9
Germany 80.9 21 69.4 32 (14.1) 51.9
U.K. 64.5 17 73.0 25 13.2 42.9
India 1,295.3 5 1,705.3 14 31.7 155.1
Japan 127.1 26 108.4 36 (14.7) 40.0
U.S. 318.9 14 389.7 22 22.2 52.9
World 7,178.7 8 9,408.1 18 31.1 127.8
Source: World Bank.
Current forecasts look for record levels of retirees and accelerating growth rates of senior populations for a wide range of
countries in coming decades (see chart below).
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4. Chart 1
Per Capita Income Projections
We assembled contemporary per capita income statistics for selected countries, as of 2013, as a starting point for
estimating future postretirement per capita income requirements. The World Bank income data, presented in U.S. dollars,
was then projected into the future for each country by growth rates equal to Office of Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD) projections for GDP growth extending to the year 2050.
Table 3
GDP (Income) Growth Rates By Country
2013 (%) 2020 (%) 2030 (%) 2040 (%)
China 7.3 5.1 3.5 3.0
Germany 2.1 1.0 1.0 1.1
U.K. 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.1
India 5.9 5.9 5.6 4.7
Japan 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.0
U.S. 3.5 2.6 2.3 1.8
Source: Office of Economic Cooperation and Development.
Based on our hypothetical income growth rate assumptions, a large income gap will be maintained into the distant future
between the developed and emerging economies of China and India. Despite the higher anticipated rates of income growth
Global Aging Demographics Will Place Sharply Higher Demands On The Global Capital Markets In
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5. in the emerging countries, China and India will still fall short of the modeled per capita income in western nations
according to our 2050 projections (see table 4). Furthermore, India's forecast 2050 income level is slightly above China's
income level today, which is a significant improvement but nonetheless emphasizes the need for growth-oriented
investments in India.
Table 4
Income Per Capita
2013 ($) 2020 ($) 2030 ($) 2040 ($) 2050 ($)
China 6,947 11,376 18,707 26,388 35,464
Germany 46,615 53,914 59,555 65,786 73,391
U.K. 42,616 51,353 68,347 87,490 107,700
India 1,490 2,226 3,949 6,809 10,779
Japan 40,317 43,828 48,414 55,635 61,455
U.S. 54,298 69,082 89,298 112,098 133,990
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
Global Regional Per Capita Retirement Income Needs For Seniors
Utilizing our forecasts for future global regional per capita income, combined with population statistics for seniors, we
calculated approximations for cumulative annual sovereign retiree income based on a targeted level of postretirement
investment income equaling 50% of working-year per capita income. With each country's population of senior retirees
increasing, as are rising projected income levels, all countries witnessed substantial growth in projected retirement income
(see table 5).
With Japan currently having the largest contemporary percentage population of retires, it would have the smallest overall
growth in needed future retirement income, commensurate with the lower projected growth rate of personal income. At
the opposite end of the spectrum, China and India would see the highest growth rates of retirement-age populations along
with the strongest growth rates in income. Expectations for substantial growth in both national per capita income and the
senior population for these two countries by 2050 implies a more than 20-fold increase in projected per capita retirement
income by the year 2050 for India and a 15-fold increase for China. The growth numbers forecast for developed nations'
senior retirement income are much less explosive than the emerging nations but are still well above 100% for the U.S.,
U.K., and Germany.
Table 5
Annual Income Required For Seniors
2013 (bil. $) 2020 (bil. $) 2030 (bil. $) 2040 (bil. $) 2050 (bil. $) Growth 2013 to 2050 (%)
China 435 954 2,248 4,592 6,642 1,426.4
Germany 397 495 643 752 816 105.3
U.K. 241 307 498 750 983 308.8
India 53 108 241 612 1,287 2,329.2
Japan 659 769 873 1,079 1,199 82.0
U.S. 1,246 1,956 3,336 4,607 5,744 361.1
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
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6. Global Security Issuance Base Required To Generate Adequate Retirement Income
Having estimated the future retirement income needs of seniors, we can now address whether the global securities market
can meet the income needs of each country's retiree population. Although there are currently multiple formats by which
seniors receive retirement funding, both private and government-based, we presume that corporate defined-benefit
pensions will gradually be phased out as a major source of retirement income. Given the projected massive scale of senior
population growth, sovereign government-provided retirement income will also likely be inadequate to meet the
anticipated standards of living of future senior generations. Therefore, individuals will be increasingly required to rely on
their own means, predominantly through savings and investments, in order to maintain a preferred standard of living
throughout retirement.
Total fixed income market capitalization statistics for each country were obtained via the Bank for International
Settlements as of fourth-quarter 2013. We also calculated aggregate public equity market capitalization per country,
according to S&P Capital IQ data, as of Dec. 31, 2013. We then projected market capitalizations into the future for each
country by increasing existing debt and equity market capitalization according to GDP growth rate projections from the
OECD (see table 3).
Utilizing senior population retirement income growth data and projections, combined with current and forecast market
capitalization data for the debt and equity markets, we can then compare ratios of required retirement income to market
capitalization across developed and emerging economies. Applying a simple 50:50 postretirement income asset allocation
mix between stocks and bonds provides interesting insights into how each asset classification would hypothetically be
positioned to support the needs of retirement-age populations alone (see table 6).
With senior populations across a wide span of selected nations set to increase an estimated 40% to 205% in coming
decades, as a demographic investor class, retirees appear set to become a much larger representation of sovereign and
global financial market participants. After applying the general 50:50 asset allocation mix between stocks and
fixed-income securities, we can then use projected retirement income as a percent of market capitalization as a proxy for
the asset class rate of return required to fund seniors' aggregate retirement income. Modeled 2050 equity market total
returns range from as low as 5.1% and 5.3% in the U.S. and U.K., respectively, to as high as 17.5% in China. Modeled
fixed-income market return requirements of 3% to 6% appear reasonable for developed-nation retirees, and 13% to 14%
requirements for the emerging India and China appear to be overly optimistic assumptions for annual bond-market
returns. The U.S., U.K., and Japan would appear to be well-positioned for meeting current and future projected retirement
income needs of seniors in both the stock and bond markets according to the broad terms of our hypothetical model.
Table 6
Projected Asset Class Market Capitalizations
2013 market
capitalization (bil.
$) (B)
2050 market
capitalization (bil.
$) (B)
50% of 2013 senior
income as a % of 2013
asset market
capitalization
50% of 2050 senior
income as a % of 2050
asset market
capitalization
50% of 2050 senior
income as a % of 2013
asset market
capitalization
Equity
China 3,711 18,947 5.9 17.5 89.5
Germany 2,015 3,173 9.9 12.9 20.2
U.K. 3,679 9,297 3.3 5.3 13.4
India 1,137 8,225 2.3 7.8 56.6
Japan 4,799 7,315 6.9 8.2 12.5
U.S. 22,967 56,676 2.7 5.1 12.5
Global Aging Demographics Will Place Sharply Higher Demands On The Global Capital Markets In
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7. Table 6
Projected Asset Class Market Capitalizations (cont.)
Fixed income
China 4,922 25,127 4.4 13.2 67.5
Germany 4,357 6,860 4.6 5.9 9.4
U.K. 5,751 14,534 2.1 3.4 8.5
India 635 4,593 4.2 14.0 101.3
Japan 12,259 18,686 2.7 3.2 4.9
U.S. 34,502 85,140 1.8 3.4 8.3
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
However, should the assumed growth rates in total capitalization of these markets turn out to be overly optimistic and if,
for instance, they level off close to existing 2013 levels, then the current market capitalization opportunity would fall far
short of meeting the retirement investment income needs of seniors (see sixth column of table 7). China and India would
require annual stock market returns of 56% to 89% to generate the half of modeled retirement income from equities,
while required fixed-income asset class returns of 67% to 101% for China and India, respectively, appear to be even more
outrageous.
Preparing For Global Retirement Investment Income Needs
We aren't seeking to predict future population demographics, income trends, financial market capitalization, or
investment asset class annual returns. We only seek to shed light on the cumulative future ramifications of large-scale
demographic aging trends and the potential impact on the wealth management industry and global financial markets.
As recently witnessed, rates of market total return and asset class market capitalization can swing wildly in the short term
and for an even more extended time period basis. Based on our theoretical modeled projections, equity market
capitalization alone for the six countries selected for this analysis would increase to $103.6 trillion in 2050 from $38.3
trillion in 2013, and total debt market capitalization would increase to $155 trillion in 2050 from $62.4 trillion in 2013.
We believe this growing segment of the population expects a reasonable postretirement standard of living; thus, it seems
natural to assume that increasing numbers of global employees will be taking preemptive measures to insure some
minimum level of investment income in retirement. By modelling future per capita income growth, as a proxy for desired
levels of retirement income (50% of personal income), coupled with population demographic predictions, we can loosely
conclude that the retirement investment income needs of seniors can be met via a combination of responsible levels of
personal savings, conservative assumptions about growth rates of global financial market capitalization, and reasonable
average rates of return from the equity and debt asset classes.
Individuals will also likely not choose to invest their personal savings solely within the confines of their domestic national
financial markets but will instead look to invest across sovereign boarders and markets as they seek the benefits of
diversification and the possibility of enhanced financial market returns. Countries with lower modeled demands or
requirements for investment returns could benefit from capital inflows coming from other countries that might
domestically fall short of providing the necessary scale of market capitalization, and perhaps investment returns, required
to meet the needs of their respective senior populations. From this perspective, the global wealth and investment
management industry appears to be well-positioned to capitalize on established trans-global demographic aging trends.
Considering the scope of the challenge facing future retirees, and by extension the government and private
enterprise-sponsored infrastructure that will be supporting this group, efforts to educate this rising senior citizen investor
class will be key to an adequately funded retirement experience.
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