Impact of the Euro debt crisis on the investment behavior of 50+ European Investors

International Pensions Papers 1/2013
Impact of the Euro
debt crisis on the
investment behavior
of 50+ European
Investors

Allianz International Pension Papers 1/2013
2
Masthead
Publisher
Allianz SE
Koeniginstrasse 28
80802 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49 89 3800-0
Fax: +49 89 3800-3425
www.allianz.com
Editors
Dr. Renate Finke, Senior Economist
Renate.Finke@allianzam.com
International Pensions
International.Pensions@allianzam.com
Closing Date
Feb 8, 2013
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
The statements contained herein may include statements
of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that
are based on management’s current views and assumptions and
involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could
cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from
those expressed or implied in such statements. In addition
to statements which are forward-looking by reason of context,
the words “may”, “will”, “should”, “expects”, “plans”, “intends”,
“anticipates”, “believes”, “estimates”, “predicts”, “potential”,
or “continue” and similar expressions identify forward-looking
statements. Actual results, performance or events may differ
materially from those in such statements due to, without limitation,
(i) general economic conditions, including in particular economic
conditions in the Allianz Group’s core business and core markets,
(ii) performance of financial markets, including emerging markets,
and including market volatility, liquidity and credit events (iii) the
frequency and severity of insured loss events, including from natural
catastrophes and including the development of loss expenses, (iv)
mortality and morbidity levels and trends, (v) persistency levels, (vi)
the extent of credit defaults, (vii) interest rate levels, (viii) currency
exchange rates including the Euro/U.S. Dollar exchange rate, (ix)
changing levels of competition, (x) changes in laws and regulations,
including monetary convergence and the European Monetary
Union, (xi) changes in the policies
of central banks and / or foreign governments, (xii) the impact
of acquisitions, including related integration issues, (xiii)
reorganization measures, and (xiv) general competitive factors,
in each case on a local, regional, national and / or global basis. Many
of these factors may be more likely to occur, or more pronounced,
as a result of terrorist activities and their consequences. The
company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking
statement.
No duty to update
The company assumes no obligation to update any information
contained herein.
Contents
03 Introduction
04 Key results
05 Impact of the euro crisis on the financial situation
05 Box: Survey sample and methodology
09 Trust in the euro
10 References
11 Recent Publications

3
One of the major challenges for private investors preparing for retirement is coping
with volatile financial markets. Whereas younger investors still have time to adapt and
compensate for investment decisions which might not prove favorable, or which were
influenced by negative market movements, people close to retirement do not have
that luxury. The struggle around the euro debt crisis has had a big impact on market
movements and performance of investments. It has increased uncertainty for investors,
made products formerly perceived as secure and attractive seem much less so and has
led to an investment landscape of financial repression. In this situation, it is interesting to
know how people react to these developments – particularly those close to retirement.
Allianz International Pensions conducted a survey in seven European countries among
wealthier people aged between 50 and 70. Countries included were Austria, France,
Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland and the United Kingdom (UK). The main objective
of the survey was to analyze the ideas of the 50+ generation about retirement income,
planning for retirement and financial topics most relevant to this clientele in a financial
environment characterized by uncertainty and volatility.1
In this report we focus on those
results which address the recent financial developments, namely the euro debt crisis.
Introduction
1 The results on retirement planning are
forthcoming, Q2 2013.

4
• A negative impact of the euro crisis on the personal financial situation is perceived
especially in Italy and France. The majority of respondents in Germany and
Switzerland notice no impact at all.
• More than half of Italian respondents save less money than before the euro crisis.
But in the other countries surveyed the majority of respondents did not change their
savings amounts.
• The main change in investment behavior is to reduce the risk and choose rather
short-term investments. Respondents in the United Kingdom tend to maintain their
investment behavior as before the crisis.
• Although there is a great deal of uncertainty around financial markets and how to
invest in that environment, people in Austria, Germany and Italy largely trust the
euro, more skepticism in euro-zone countries is found in France and the Netherlands.
Though the largest skepticism is found in the UK.
• The vast majority of respondents across all countries surveyed think that there will be
tax hikes and increasing inflation rates in the follow up of the debt crisis.
Key results

5
People close to retirement or in their early years of retirement, probably thought that they had
secured their retirement strategy and could rest on their laurels, but were instead faced with
severe volatility and financial crises during the last decade. The euro-zone debt crisis continued
this stream of uncertainty. Although it seemed the crisis had already peaked in the middle of 2012
when the president of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi released his statement to support
the euro, the crisis will have an ongoing impact on financial markets with low yields and even
negative real interest rates.
In such a situation of financial repression, investors lose money. Those nearing retirement age and
those who have recently reached retirement, who planned on using part of their financial assets
to generate an income stream for their retirement years, are faced with lower assets than
previously anticipated.
But to what extent has the crisis already impacted the investment decisions of wealthier people
aged 50 to 70? Among the five euro-zone countries, currently only Germans feel mostly
unaffected. A majority of 62% say the crisis has had no impact on their personal financial situation.
A similar result can be seen in Switzerland, which is not surprising as a non-European Union
member with its own currency and a country perceived as a safe haven during the crisis. In
contrast, the majority of French and Italian interviewees felt a negative impact from the euro crisis
on their personal financial situation while Austrian respondents were split. (Chart 1)
Survey sample and methodology
All in all, 1,400 respondents from Austria,France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands,
Switzerland and the United Kingdom (UK) took part in the survey. It should be understood
that this study is not representative of the entire 50-70-year-old population, but rather
targets the wealthiest 20% of this specific age group.
For the objectives of retirement planning and investment, this subset is particularly
interesting for two reasons. Firstly, given the low replacement rate of public pensions
compared with this segment’s current income and living standards in most countries,
financial planning is extremely critical. Secondly, since this group is likely to be more
educated, they are also more likely to have the ability to master their own retirement
strategy and investment decisions. The survey was conducted online in November 2012,
in Austria in January 2013.
Impact of the Euro crisis
on the financial situation

6
2 See Allianz Global Wealth Report 2012,
Deutsche Bundesbank (2012a) and Banca
d‘Italia (2012)
These answers mirror the development of financial assets of private households in these
countries. In Switzerland and Germany, overall assets saw an increase between 2010 and 2011,
and again into 2012, whereas both France and the UK saw slight losses and Italian households
faced a larger loss of 3% between the end of 2010 and the middle of 2012. In Austria financial
assets remained unchanged.2
The picture in the Netherlands is mixed: although financial assets
as a whole performed well, half of the older Dutch people felt the crisis has had a negative impact
on their financial situation.
Although the general results seem as if people are quite relaxed, a statement concerning the
euro tells a different story. In particular, French and Italian respondents fear for the safety of their
savings (69% and 60% respectively) followed by Germans (48%) and Austrians (38%) whereas
the Dutch seem more relaxed (32%).
Chart 1: Impact of euro crisis on financial situation
་
Question: Does the euro crisis have any impact on your financial situation so far?
Base: Top 20% of 50-70 year old people regarding investable assets
The euro crisis has no
impact on my financial
situation so far
The euro crisis has
negative impact on my
financial situation
The euro crisis has
positive impact on my
financial situation
Don’t know / no answer
62
34
48
33
15
Austria
(n=200)
France
(n=202)
Germany
(n=200)
Netherlands
(n=200)
Switzerland
(n=200)
UK
(n=199)
Italy
(n=201)
43
47
9
1
30
62
5
3
3
57
33
7
3
3
1
39
54
7
1
24
71
0
5

7
One would expect people to adapt to a new situation. Therefore, it is not surprising that German
and Swiss people have not changed their savings behavior, as most of them did not feel any
impact of the euro crisis on their financial situation. However, the majority of those interviewed
in Austria, the Netherlands, France and the United Kingdom also did not change their habits.
(Chart 2) Only Italy is outstanding in that one out of every two respondents said that they now
save less. This might be due to the weaker economic situation in Italy and lower wages that result
in a reduced ability to save. On the other hand, we also have to note that the interviewees were
between the ages of 50 to 70, where people might not be so inclined to save so much.
Even if people do not change their behavior with regard to the amount they save, they do review
their investment attitudes. For most of the interviewees, the main reason for change in invest-
ment behavior is to reduce risk, for example the majority in France and Italy state that they take
care to ensure that their investments are not so risky. (Chart 3) They might pay more attention to
this issue as French and Italian households used to invest a higher portion of their financial assets
in capital market products than the average household in Western Europe. In the Netherlands,
Chart 2: Change of saving behavior due to euro crisis
Yes, I save more
than before
Yes, I save less
than before
No, my saving behavior
has not changed
Austria
(n=200)
France
(n=202)
Germany
(n=200)
Netherlands
(n=200)
Switzerland
(n=200)
UK
(n=199)
Italy
(n=201)
Question: Did you change your saving behavior due to euro crisis compared to the time before the crisis?
7
14
79
0
8
18
70
4
6
90
2
312
23
64
1
15
51
31
3
9
8
80
3
18
11
69
3

8
households have a very conservative asset structure, so risky investments are not a part of their
investment focus.3
Most of them have not changed their investment behavior.
A similar situation can be found in the United Kingdom, where 53% say that their investment
behavior did not change. In Austria as well as in Germany – besides avoiding risky assets – almost
half of interviewees invest their money somewhat short-term. In Germany this behavior could
already be observed a couple of years ago when volatility in financial markets began to increase
and uncertainty dominated due to financial and debt crises. Since then, Germans prefer to put
their money into accounts that are accessible at short notice.4
The risk aversion of the 50 to 70 year olds in our survey is also apparent in the low consent to the
statement “I invest more money in stock than before.”
Chart 3: Change of investment behavior due to euro crisis
I keep care that my investments
are not so risky
I invest money rather
short-term now
My investment behavior has not
changed
I bought real estate or plan
to buy one
I bought gold or precious metals
I invest more money in stock
than before
I start to invest with a higher
level of risk than before
I make investments not in euro
anymore, but in other currency
51
22
45
14
4
3
12
2
Austria
(n=200)
60
24
18
18
1
1
5
1
France
(n=202)
48
26
46
16
7
3
7
2
Germany
(n=200)
38
45
5
4
7
1
2
1
Netherlands
(n=200)
46
32
15
19
9
17
12
2
Switzerland
(n=200)
26
53
14
3
3
5
2
1
UK
(n=199)
54
14
38
13
8
6
6
4
Italy
(n=201)
Question: What about money investment. How has the euro crisis changed your money investment behavior?
Which of the following statements apply to you?
3 Allianz Global Wealth Report 2012
4 See Deutsche Bundesbank (2012b)
and Allianz (2012)

9
Although there is a great deal of uncertainty around financial markets and how to invest in that
environment,peopleintheeuro-zonelargelytrusttheeuro–particularlyinAustria,GermanyandItaly,
where50%,44%and36%(respectively)claimtobackthecurrency(Chart4).IntheNetherlands,only
29%claimtotrust theircurrency,whilst38%areundecided.Thelargestskepticismisfoundin France,
wherehardlyafifthofrespondentstrusttheeuroand42%remainsundecided.Butthisresultistopped
by people in the United Kingdom, where 75% of respondents do not trust the European currency.
Although the Netherlands are not so enthusiastic, the majority (65%) still admit that they benefit
from the euro and more than every second German and Italian see benefits, whilst half of the
respondents in UK do not see any benefits for their country.
Nevertheless, the reason for the euro crisis has still not been solved. Government debt levels are still
excessively high. The majority of around 80% of respondents think that there will be tax hikes and
this opinion is more or less equal across all survey countries. The same holds for expected inflation
development. Across all countries the majority of people see inflation increasing – 80% in Germany
and the UK, around 70% in Austria, France, Switzerland and the Netherlands, whilst only 56% of
Italians see inflation rates rising. Right now, in an environment with yields and interest rates below
inflation rates, it seems as if there is a “smooth” solution. But the results indicate that people fear
more “severe” ways out of the crisis.
Trust in the euro
Chart 4: Trust in the euro
Question: There is a lot of discussion about the euro crisis in public lately. Do you currently trust in the euro to be a strong currency?
Yes, definitely
Rather yes
Partly
Rather not
No, definitely not
Austria
(n=200)
France
(n=202)
Germany
(n=200)
Netherlands
(n=200)
Switzerland
(n=200)
UK
(n=199)
Italy
(n=201)
11
39
40
24
23
14
18
11 15
1 0
4 8 8
15
28
21
18
42
24 38
24
16
26
22
16
31
32
11 16 13
21
44
3 3 4 3 4
3 3 3

10
Allianz Global Wealth Report 2012, Economic Research & Corporate Development, 2012
Allianz (2012), Slight increase in gross financial assets, International Pension Issues 1/2012
Banca d’Italia (2012); Supplements to the Statistical Bulletin, Monetary and Financial Indicators,
Financial Accounts, Volume XXII – 6 November 2012 No. 57
Deutsche Bundesbank (2012a), Monthly Report, December 2012.
Deutsche Bundesbank (2012b), Acquisition of financial assets and financing in Germany
in the second quarter of 2012, October 2012.
References

11
Recent Publications
What’s happeneing in the Netherlands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2012
Country Factsheets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2012
Why Saving on a Regular Basis may be Wise! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2012
Routes to Private Pensions in China – A Scenario Analysis of China’s Private Pension Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2012
Design Retirement Attitudes and Financial Strategies of the Affluent 50+Generation in Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2012
Wanted: Flexibility in Retirement Entry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2012
Germany – Slight increase in gross financial assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2012
2011 Pension Sustainability Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2011
Pensions in Turkey – A Race against Informality and Low Retirement Ages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2011
Fiduciary Management: Meeting Pensions Challenges in Europe – Results of an Expert Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2011
Putting the Retirement Pieces Together: Strategies of the Affluent 50+ Generation in the United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2011
UK – on course for an innovative pension system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2011
Better Prepared for Retirement – Europe or the United States? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2010
Doing Good by Investing Well? Pension Funds and Socially Responsible Investment: Results of an Expert Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2010
Demographics in Focus II – Ageing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2010
Real Retirement Income: The Impact of Inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2010
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