Presentatie van 19-02-2014 over het hoofdstuk 'Decision-making models, decision support, and problem solving' uit het boek Human Factors Fundamentals van Lehto et al. uit 2012, en de paper 'Flightdeck and Air Traffic Control Collaboration and Evaluation' van Sharples et al. uit 2012.
Decision Making remains one enigma for managers. Although no prescription can be offered for mastering this technique yet these fillers will certainly improve your skill
Decision Making remains one enigma for managers. Although no prescription can be offered for mastering this technique yet these fillers will certainly improve your skill
Decision Making PowerPoint PPT Content Modern SampleAndrew Schwartz
164 slides include: the 6 C's of decision making, inherent personal and system traps, decision trees, decision making methods and tips, 4 slides on the GOR approach to decision making, common pitfalls in decision making, effective strategies in making decisions, the 8 major decision making traps and how to effectively minimize each, different decision making perspectives, 3 different types of analysis (grid analysis - paired comparison analysis, and cost/benefit analysis), utilizing planning and overarching questions, 4 modes of decision making and 6 factors in decision making plus more.
Decision Making Process & Styles of Decision Making at Management LevelQazi Faheem
The presentation explains the Decision Making Process & Styles of Decision Making at a Management level in a detailed manner. It has a video case study as well to simulate he idea of Decision Making in our day today life.
Decision Making PowerPoint PPT Content Modern SampleAndrew Schwartz
164 slides include: the 6 C's of decision making, inherent personal and system traps, decision trees, decision making methods and tips, 4 slides on the GOR approach to decision making, common pitfalls in decision making, effective strategies in making decisions, the 8 major decision making traps and how to effectively minimize each, different decision making perspectives, 3 different types of analysis (grid analysis - paired comparison analysis, and cost/benefit analysis), utilizing planning and overarching questions, 4 modes of decision making and 6 factors in decision making plus more.
Decision Making Process & Styles of Decision Making at Management LevelQazi Faheem
The presentation explains the Decision Making Process & Styles of Decision Making at a Management level in a detailed manner. It has a video case study as well to simulate he idea of Decision Making in our day today life.
ReadySetPresent (Decision Making PowerPoint Presentation Content): 100+ PowerPoint presentation content slides. Successful and effective strategic decision making is a guarantee to increase productivity in every workplace. Decision Making PowerPoint Presentation Content slides include topics such as: the 6 C’s of decision making, inherent personal and system traps, 10+ slides on decision trees, 10+ slides on decision making methods and tips, 4 slides on the GOR approach to decision making, 8 slides on common pitfalls in decision making, 4 slides on effective strategies in making decisions, 35+ slides on the 8 major decision making traps and how to effectively minimize each, 7 slides on different decision making perspectives, 25 slides on the 3 different types of analysis (grid analysis – paired comparison analysis, and cost/benefit analysis), 4 slides on utilizing planning and overarching questions, 4 modes of decision making and 6 factors in decision making and more!
Mental Models to Guide Product Decisions by Google Product ManagerProduct School
Main takeaways:
-What are mental models?
-Understand the different types of mental models that are relevant for product roles
-How to incorporate mental models to help with problem solving and make better/ faster decisions
The act or process of choosing a preferred option or course of action from a set of alternatives which precedes and underpins almost all deliberate or voluntary behavior (Colman, 2015)
Understanding human decision making and biases: The foundation of an effectiv...Steve Remington
he objective of analytics and data science is to use data, analytical techniques, and explanatory and predictive models to support or automate human decision making. Given the key objective is to support and automate decision making, it is important for analytics and data science professionals to have a good understanding of the human decision-making process and the role data plays in that process.
This workshop gives an introduction to the latest research into how people in organisations make decisions. It also shows how human decision-making is often subject to biases that can lead to poor decision outcomes and how to overcome those biases. The workshop concludes with recommendations on how to best match analytics and data science activities with the level and type of decisions so the best decisions can be made, and how to ensure scarce analytics and data science resources are used effectively to support decision-making.
In de testbranche, waarin software en webtoepassingen worden getest, wordt usability een steeds belangrijker aspect om rekening mee te houden. In deze presentatie vertelt Martin Specken over eigenschappen van de gebruikers van websites in Nederland.
De Hanzehogeschool Groningen is lid geworden van de Noord Nederlandse Overheids Testorganisaties. De andere leden zijn op uitnodiging van de hogeschool te gast bij de opleiding Human Technolgy, waar Martin Specken deze presentatie heeft gebruikt.
Presentatie die ik samen met Nikki Demandt heb gegeven op 19-12-2011 in het kader van de course Selforganization, cognition and social systems van de Rijksuniversiteit Groningen
This presentation was provided by Steph Pollock of The American Psychological Association’s Journals Program, and Damita Snow, of The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), for the initial session of NISO's 2024 Training Series "DEIA in the Scholarly Landscape." Session One: 'Setting Expectations: a DEIA Primer,' was held June 6, 2024.
Strategies for Effective Upskilling is a presentation by Chinwendu Peace in a Your Skill Boost Masterclass organisation by the Excellence Foundation for South Sudan on 08th and 09th June 2024 from 1 PM to 3 PM on each day.
it describes the bony anatomy including the femoral head , acetabulum, labrum . also discusses the capsule , ligaments . muscle that act on the hip joint and the range of motion are outlined. factors affecting hip joint stability and weight transmission through the joint are summarized.
বাংলাদেশের অর্থনৈতিক সমীক্ষা ২০২৪ [Bangladesh Economic Review 2024 Bangla.pdf] কম্পিউটার , ট্যাব ও স্মার্ট ফোন ভার্সন সহ সম্পূর্ণ বাংলা ই-বুক বা pdf বই " সুচিপত্র ...বুকমার্ক মেনু 🔖 ও হাইপার লিংক মেনু 📝👆 যুক্ত ..
আমাদের সবার জন্য খুব খুব গুরুত্বপূর্ণ একটি বই ..বিসিএস, ব্যাংক, ইউনিভার্সিটি ভর্তি ও যে কোন প্রতিযোগিতা মূলক পরীক্ষার জন্য এর খুব ইম্পরট্যান্ট একটি বিষয় ...তাছাড়া বাংলাদেশের সাম্প্রতিক যে কোন ডাটা বা তথ্য এই বইতে পাবেন ...
তাই একজন নাগরিক হিসাবে এই তথ্য গুলো আপনার জানা প্রয়োজন ...।
বিসিএস ও ব্যাংক এর লিখিত পরীক্ষা ...+এছাড়া মাধ্যমিক ও উচ্চমাধ্যমিকের স্টুডেন্টদের জন্য অনেক কাজে আসবে ...
This slide is special for master students (MIBS & MIFB) in UUM. Also useful for readers who are interested in the topic of contemporary Islamic banking.
A Strategic Approach: GenAI in EducationPeter Windle
Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies such as Generative AI, Image Generators and Large Language Models have had a dramatic impact on teaching, learning and assessment over the past 18 months. The most immediate threat AI posed was to Academic Integrity with Higher Education Institutes (HEIs) focusing their efforts on combating the use of GenAI in assessment. Guidelines were developed for staff and students, policies put in place too. Innovative educators have forged paths in the use of Generative AI for teaching, learning and assessments leading to pockets of transformation springing up across HEIs, often with little or no top-down guidance, support or direction.
This Gasta posits a strategic approach to integrating AI into HEIs to prepare staff, students and the curriculum for an evolving world and workplace. We will highlight the advantages of working with these technologies beyond the realm of teaching, learning and assessment by considering prompt engineering skills, industry impact, curriculum changes, and the need for staff upskilling. In contrast, not engaging strategically with Generative AI poses risks, including falling behind peers, missed opportunities and failing to ensure our graduates remain employable. The rapid evolution of AI technologies necessitates a proactive and strategic approach if we are to remain relevant.
Natural birth techniques - Mrs.Akanksha Trivedi Rama University
Decision making, decision support & problem solving
1. Decision-making models, decision
support, and problem solving
Mark R. Lehto, Fiona Fui-Hoon Nah, Ji Soo Yi
in Human Factors Fundamentals (2012)
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
2. Integrative model of decision making
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Single DM
Time pressure
Multiple stages
Risk attitudes
Knowledge
Decision tools
Multiple DMs
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
3. Categories of decision making (1/5)
(Sometimes overlapping)
1. Group
2. Dynamic
3. Routine
4. Conflict
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
4. Categories of decision making (2/5)
• Debate
• Bargain
• Vote
Group decision making
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
5. Categories of decision making (3/5)
• Decision 1: Take medical test
• Decision 2: What to do with the result?
Dynamic decision making
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
6. Categories of decision making (4/5)
Routine decision making
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
7. Categories of decision making (5/5)
Various forms of conflict
must be resolved before
an alternative action can
be chosen.
Conflict-driven decision making
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
9. Normative decision models (1/6)
Classic decision theory with 4 elements:
• Potential actions to choose between [A]
• Events/world states [E]
• Probabilities [P] from combination [A] &[E]
• Consequences [C] from combination [A]&[E]
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
10. Normative decision models (2/6)
1. Dominance
2. Maximizing expected value
3. Subjective expected utility theory
4. Multiattribute utility theory
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
11. Normative decision models (3/6)
Occurs between two alternative
actions, Aiand Aj, when:
Action Ai is at least as good as Aj
– for all events E
AND
– for at least one event Ek
then Ai is preferred to Aj
#CognitiveEngineering
Dominance
@MartinSpecken
12. Normative decision models (4/6)
Select the alternative with the greatest expected value.
• 3 kittens are stuck in trees
• Decision:
– Save 3 kittens is 3 times
as good as saving 1 kitten.
• Choises:
– 100% chance to save 1 kitten
Expected value = 1 * 1 = 1
– 50% chance to save all 3 kittens + 50% to save 0 kittens
Expected value = ( 3 * 0,5 + 0 * 0,5 ) = 1,5
Maximizing Expected Value
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
13. Normative decision models (5/6)
Basic axioms (Dutch: grondstelling) of rational choise:
• If A > B and B > C , then A > C
• People’s preferences can conflict with the axioms.
• Movement toward less restrictive standards.
Subjective Expected Utility Theory
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
14. Normative decision models (6/6)
Consider attractiveness of
• Economic benifits
• Social benefits
• Environmental benefits
Multiattribute Utility Theory
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
16. Behavioral decision models (1/5)
Normative decision models don’t always work
when compared to human behavior.
1. Statistical estimation and inference
2. Preference and choise
3. Adaptive decision behavior
4. Behavior economics
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
17. Behavior decision models (2/5)
1960s: People behave as ’intuïtive statisticians’.
Many examples of findings in the paper. A selection:
• DMs tend to ignore the reliability of the evidence.
• DMs tend to seek out confirming evidence rather
than disconfirming evidence.
• DMs are overconfident in their predictions.
Statistical estimation and inference
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
18. Behavior decision models (3/5)
Research: observing human preference and
choise and comparing it with the SEU theory
People’s preferences change
when the outcomes are
framed in terms of costs,
as opposed to benifits.
Preference and choise
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
19. Behavior decision models (4/5)
Individual
DM uses
different
strategies
in different
situations.
Adaptive decision behavior
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
22. Naturalistic decision models (1/5)
In dynamic and realistic environment, actions by
decision maker are made sequentially in time.
1. Levels of task performance
2. Recognition-primed decision making
3. Dominance structuring
4. Explanation-based decision making
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
23. Naturalistic decision models (2/5)
Most decisions are made on a routine basis.
The levels of performance tasks are based on:
•
•
•
•
Skills
Rules
Knowledge
Judgement
Levels of task performance
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
24. Naturalistic decision models (3/5)
80% of firefighters make
decisions based on some
sort of situation
recognition
Recognition-primed decision making
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
25. Naturalistic decision models (4/5)
Nonroutine decisions
involve sequence of:
1. Screen alternatives.
2. Select alternative.
3. Check dominance of selection to
other alternatives.
4. No dominance? Restructure info
to force dominance.
Dominance structuring
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
26. Naturalistic decision models (5/5)
Jurors seem to organize massive amount of data
in terms of stories describing cause and intent.
Explanation-based decision making
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
27. Group decision making (1/5)
1. Ethics and social norms
2. Group processes
3. Group performance and biasses
4. Prescriptive approaches
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
28. Group decision making (2/5)
Four dilemma’s of right versus right (Kidder, 1995)
1. Truth versus Loyalty
2. Individual versus Community
3. Short term versus Long term
4. Justice versus Mercy
Ethics and social norms
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
29. Group decision making (3/5)
Tuckman (1965):
1. Forming (initial orientation)
2. Storming (conflict)
3. Norming (develop cohesion, express opinions)
4. Performing (obtain solutions)
#CognitiveEngineering
Group processes
@MartinSpecken
30. Group decision making (4/5)
Strong opposition
to usefull products
Group performance and biasses
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
31. Group decision making (5/5)
Prescriptive approaches
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
32. Decision support and problem solving (1/5)
1. Decision analysis
2. Individual decision support
3. Group and organizational decision support
4. Problem solving
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
33. Decision support and problem solving (2/5)
A = Action
E = Event
P = Probability
C = Consequenses
P1
E1
A1
E2
1 - P1
P2
A2
E1
E2
1 – P2
#CognitiveEngineering
Decision analysis
C11
C12
C21
C22
@MartinSpecken
34. Decision support and problem solving (3/5)
Individual decision support
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
35. Decision support and problem solving (4/5)
Negotiation Support Systems assist people in activities
that are competitive of involve conflicts of interest.
Group and organizational decision
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
36. Decision support and problem solving (5/5)
Psychologist work together
with computer scientist to
understand the human mind
#CognitiveEngineering
Problem solving
@MartinSpecken
37. Book Malcolm Cook et al. (2007)
http://tinyurl.com/boekdecisionmaking
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
38. Paper Sarah Sharples et al. (2007) (1/5)
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17499573
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
39. Paper Sarah Sharples et al. (2007) (2/5)
Key components in airspace systems:
• Air traffic controllers
• Airline management
• Aircraft pilots
• Aircraft systems
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
40. Paper Sarah Sharples et al. (2007) (3/5)
Different goals:
• Air traffic controllers
safety of all the aircrafts in the system
• Airline management
expediency &efficiency (profit)
• Aircraft pilots
safety &expediency of aircraft (local)
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
41. Paper Sarah Sharples et al. (2007) (4/5)
Different available information:
• Air traffic controllers
more: global traffic patterns
less: global weather
• Airline management
less: traffic patterns
more: current weather
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
42. Paper Sarah Sharples et al. (2007) (5/5)
Increase of air traffic: How can extra aircrafts
operate economically, efficiently and safe?
• Freeflight
some transfer of responsibility from air traffic
controller to pilot for determining flight paths
• Datalink
provide electronic exchange of information between
pilots and air traffic controllers
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken
43. Finally
The integrative model of
decision making shows
how the various approaches
fit together as a whole.
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken