The Indian rupee appreciated against the US dollar on positive domestic factors such as selling of dollars by exporters and banks, while weak global market sentiments and foreign fund outflows limited gains; technical analyses indicate support for the rupee from short-term trends but resistance from channel patterns against the dollar and yen; upcoming economic indicators from the US could impact currencies based on whether they meet forecasts or suggest more hawkish monetary policy.

1. Currency Highlights
28th
Sep’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee appreciated to two week high of 66.50 on Tuesday
 US CB Consumer Confidence expanded to 104.1-mark in Septem-
ber
 German Import Prices declined by 0.2 percent in the last month
 UK’s CBI Realized Sales was at negative 8-mark in September
Indian Rupee continued with positive bias for fourth consecutive day
and appreciated by 13 paise to end at 66.48 against the US dollar on
Tuesday. The currency appreciated on account of selling of dollars
from exporters and banks. However, weak domestic market senti-
ments along with outflow of foreign funds capped sharp gains in the
currency. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth a net
Rs.206.40 crore yesterday as per provisional data from exchanges.
Indian Rupee moved in the range of 66.43 to 66.53 in Tuesday’s trad-
ing session. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for
the dollar was seen at 66.4627 and Euro stood at 74.7373 as on 27th
September, 2016.
In cross-currency trades, the rupee fell back modestly against the pound sterling and settled at 86.20 as compared to 86.15,
while rebounded against the euro to end at 74.73 from 74.95 yesterday. It also recovered against the Japanese yen to close at
66.28 from 66.34 per 100 yens.
US Dollar Index rose around 0.1 percent in Tuesday’s trading session due to favourable economic data from the country. How-
ever, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of rise in risk appetite in global markets which led to decline in de-
mand for the low yielding currency.
US Standard & Poor's (S&P)/ Case-Shiller (CS) Composite-20 House Price Index (HPI) fell marginaly to 5 percent in July from 5.1
percent in June. Flash Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) gained by 0.9 points to 51.9-mark in September as against a
rise of 51-level in August. Richmond Manufacturing Index was at negative 8-mark in current month with respect to negative 11
-level in August. The Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence expanded by 2.3 points to 104.1-mark in September when
compared to 101.8-level in previous month.
Euro against dollar declined around 0.35 percent on Tuesday on account of strength in the dollar index. Further, unfavourable
economic data from the region led to negative movement in the currency. However, upbeat global market sentiments cush-
ioned sharp fall in the currency. German Import Prices declined by 0.2 percent in August as against a rise of 0.1 percent in July.
Euro Zone Money Supply jumped to 5.1 percent in August from 4.9 percent a month ago. European Union Private Loans un-
changed at 1.8 percent in the last month.
The Sterling Pound gained around 0.36 percent in Tuesday’s trade as a result of upbeat global market sentiments along with
favourable economic data from the country. However, stronger dollar prevented sharp upside movement in the currency. UK’s
Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Realized Sales was at negative 8-mark in September with respect to rise of 9-level in
August. The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated around 0.1 percent in Tuesday’s trading session due to rise in risk appe-
tite in global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 95.25 95.21 0.04 0.04
USD/INR(Spot) 66.47 66.61 (0.14) (0.21)
USD/INR(NseAug) 66.49 66.64 (0.15) (0.23)
EUR/INR(Spot) 74.74 74.97 (0.23) (0.31)
EUR/INR(NseAug 74.76 74.95 (0.19) (0.25)
GBP/INR(Spot) 86.13 86.43 (0.30) (0.35)
GBP/INR(NseAug) 86.23 86.24 (0.01) (0.01)
JPY/INR(NseAug) 66.17 66.34 (0.17) (0.26)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On daily chart JPYINR prices have been trading in sym-
metrical triangle pattern. However, price has faced re-
sistance near 67.10 levels on daily chart.
Moreover, any further movement can been seen in the
prices if JPYINR has given breakout above 67.10 levels o
daily chart.
Furthermore, prices have been trading above its 50 DE-
MA, which suggest medium term trend is positive.
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI reading is at 55
levels which is also strong horizontal support now its
point out for positive breath in the pair.
So for trading perspective, one could use buy above level
of 67.10 with SL of 66.50 for Target of 67.80.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
On daily USDINR prices have been trading in falling
channel formation from past few weeks. The pair has
formed bearish candle stick with appealing volumes.
On the other hand, prices have been facing resistance of
its upper band of channel pattern at 67.10 levels on dai-
ly.
Moreover, prices have been trading below 21 DEMA
which gives the sign of bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor RSI has traded below 40 levels,
which suggest further weakness in the prices.
So for trading perspective, one could sell in range 67.10-
67.20 with SL of 67.50 for target of 66.30-66.10
Currency Highlights
28th
Sep’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.20 66.35 66.42 66.50 66.57 66.65 66.80
JPYINR 65.29 65.67 65.91 66.05 66.29 66.43 66.81

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
28th
Sep’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
On daily chart EURINR price have been trading
in descending triangle pattern from past months. On
the other hand, price has taken support near its lower
band of triangle pattern at 74.20 levels on daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 21 DE-
MA, which suggest short term trend remains bullish.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI have been trad-
ing above 40 which suggest bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive cross-
over on daily chart, which add more bullishness in the
prices.
For now we can expect prices should move higher to-
wards 75.60 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
On daily GBPINR price has been trading in falling chan-
nel pattern and price has faced resistance near 88 levels
on daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading below 21 DEMA,
which suggest short term trend remains weak.
The price has given breakdown of horizontal trend line
at 87.30 levels on daily chart.
A momentum indicator MADC has given negative Cross
over on daily chart, which gives the sign of bearishness
in the prices.
The momentum indictor RSI has been trading below 40
levels on daily chart. Which suggest lack of strength in
the prices.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards
85.60 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 85.47 85.88 86.06 86.29 86.47 86.70 87.11
EURINR 74.38 74.58 74.67 74.78 74.87 74.98 75.18

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
28th
Sep’2016
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
28.09.16 6:00 PM Core Durable Goods Orders
m/m
1.3% -0.5% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
28.09.16 6:00 PM Durable Goods Orders m/m -1.0% 4.4% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
28.09.16 7:30 PM Fed Chair Yellen Testifies More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
USDINR
28.09.16 7:40 PM FOMC Member Bullard
Speaks
More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
USDINR
28.09.16 8:00 PM ECB President Draghi
Speaks
More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
USDINR
28.09.16 Crude Oil Inventories -6.2M

5. Currency Highlights
28th
Sep’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds