The Indian rupee ended lower against the US dollar due to dollar demand from banks and importers as well as weak domestic market sentiments, while foreign fund outflows also put pressure on the currency; technical analyses provided buy and sell recommendations for various currency pairs based on chart patterns and momentum indicators. The document also noted economic data releases from India and other countries that could impact currencies.

1. Currency Highlights
21st
Nov’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee came under pressure to end at 67.93 in Friday’s
trade
 US CB Leading Index fell marginally to 0.1 percent in October
 German PPI rose around 0.7 percent in the month of October
 Euro Zone Current Account at a surplus of 25.3 billion Euros in
Sept
Indian Rupee came under pressure and depreciated around 17 paise
to end at 67.93 against the US dollar on Friday. The currency depreci-
ated on account of dollar demand from banks and importers. Further,
weak domestic market sentiments led to negative movement in the
currency.
Moreover, outflow of foreign funds kept the currency in negative ter-
ritory. Indian Rupee moved in the range of 67.943 to 68.251 in Fri-
day’s trade. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for
the dollar was seen at 68.0937 and Euro stood at 72.2134 as on 18th
Nov’16.
For the month of November 2016, FII outflows in equities totalled at Rs.9841.24 crores ($1464.45 million) as on 18th Novem-
ber 2016. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.37145.48 crores ($5598.88 million) as on 18th November 2016.
US Dollar Index rose around 0.41 percent in Friday’s trading session due to rising bets of the Federal Reserve hiking its interest
rates in Dec’16 meeting. Further, upside in currency was seen because of rise in risk aversion in global markets which led to
increase in demand for the low yielding currency However, unfavourable economic data from the country capped sharp gains
in the dollar index.
US Conference Board (CB) Leading Index fell marginally to 0.1 percent in October as against a rise of 0.2 percent in September.
Euro against dollar fell around 0.4 percent on Friday on account of strength in the dollar index. Further, weak domestic market
sentiments kept pressure on the currency. However, favourable economic data from the region cushioned sharp fall in the cur-
rency.
German Producer Price Index (PPI) rose around 0.7 percent in October as against a decline of 0.2 percent in September. Euro
Zone Current Account was at a surplus of 25.3 billion Euros in September with respect to surplus of 29.1 billion Euros a month
ago.
The Sterling Pound dropped around 0.6 percent in Friday’s trade due to stronger dollar. Further, weak global market senti-
ments along with estimates of unfavourable economic data from the country kept negative movement in the currency.
The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated around 0.8 percent in Friday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in global
market sentiments in early part of the trade which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 101.4 101 0.40 0.39
USD/INR(Spot) 68.16 68.03 0.13 0.19
USD/INR(NseNov) 68.17 67.92 0.25 0.37
EUR/INR(Spot) 72.21 72.27 (0.06) (0.08)
EUR/INR(NseNov) 72.45 72.84 (0.39) (0.54)
GBP/INR(Spot) 84.11 84.33 (0.22) (0.26)
GBP/INR(NseNov) 84.76 84.73 0.03 0.04
JPY/INR(NseNov) 61.80 62.34 (0.54) (0.87)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On daily chart, the JPYINR price has completed a “Bullish
Anti-Cypher Harmonic Pattern” at 61.20 levels, the co-
ordinates of which are as follows:
Technical Parameter: XA of the leg from 62 to 67.80 ,AB
of the leg completed at 64 (i.e.61.80%% of XA leg.) ,BC of
the leg completed at 67.20 (i.e. 78.60% of AB leg.) and
CD of the leg completed at 61.20 levels (i.e. 127.20% of
XA and 224% Fibonacci Projection of BC leg.).
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI is trading near
its oversold zone at 33 levels which suggest further bull-
ishness can be seen in the prices.
So for trading perspective, one could use buy in the
range of 61.60 with SL of 61.20 for target of 62.20 levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has given breakout of its falling channel pattern
at 67.10 levels on daily chart. On daily USDINR prices
have shown breakout of its falling trend line at 67.20
levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 50 DEMA
which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator RSI has traded above 50 levels,
which suggest further positive momentum can be seen
in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown pos-
itive crossover on daily chart.
So for trading perspective, one could buy in range 68
with SL of 67.70 for target of 68.50.
Currency Highlights
21st
Nov’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 67.78 67.97 68.07 68.16 68.26 68.35 68.54
JPYINR 61.01 61.36 61.58 61.71 61.93 62.06 62.41

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
21st
Nov’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has shown breakdown of its falling channel a
pattern at 72.60 levels on daily chart. The EURINR pair
has shown horizontal trend line at 72.80 levels on daily
chart.
The pair has been trading below its 50 DEMA on daily
chart, which suggest further weakness can be seen in
the prices.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI have been trad-
ing below 60 which suggest bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart, which add more bearishness
in the prices.
For now we can expect prices should move lower to-
wards 71.80 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
The pair has shown breakout of its horizontal channel
pattern at 84.80 levels on daily chart. Moreover, prices
have been trading above 50 DEMA, which suggest short
term trend looks positive.
The price has formed bullish hammer candle stick
pattern on daily chart, which is bullish pattern.
A momentum indicator MADC has given positive Cross
over on hourly chart, which gives the sign of bullishness
in the prices.
The momentum indictor RSI has been trading above 60
levels on daily chart, which suggest the possibilities of
bounce back in the in the prices.
For now we expect prices should move higher towards
85.40 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 83.85 84.25 84.51 84.65 84.91 85.05 85.45
EURINR 71.71 72.04 72.24 72.37 72.57 72.70 73.03

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
21st
Nov’2016
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
21.11.16 05:20 AM Trade Balance 0.35T 0.41T Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; JPYINR
21.11.16 07:30 PM CB Leading Index m/m 1.1% - More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency; CNY
21.11.16 09:30 PM ECB President Draghi
Speaks
More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;

5. Currency Highlights
21st
Nov’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd,
ou=Research Department,
email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.11.19 12:51:05 +05'30'