The document provides currency highlights and analysis for December 20th, 2016, including the Indian rupee ending lower against the dollar, weak US services PMI data, stronger German business climate data, and Japan posting a trade surplus. Technical analysis is given for various currency pairs, and upcoming economic indicators are listed that could impact currencies. Pivot levels and trading recommendations are provided based on technical factors.

1. Currency Highlights
20th
Dec’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee came under pressure to end at 67.88 on Monday
 US Flash Services PMI plunged to 53.4-mark in December
 German Ifo Business Climate surged to 111-mark in December
 Japan’s Trade Balance at a surplus of 0.54 trillion Yen in November
Indian Rupee came under pressure and depreciated around 11 paise
to end at 67.88 against the US dollar on Monday. The currency depre-
ciated on account of dollar demand from importers and bankers.
Further, weak domestic market sentiments for fourth consecutive ses-
sion kept pressure on the currency. So far this year, foreign institution-
al investors have bought $4.04 billion in equities and sold $6.46 billion
in debt.
Indian Rupee moved in the range of 67.705 to 67.895 in Monday’s
trade. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for the dol-
lar was seen at 67.7262 and Euro stood at 70.8416 as on 19th Dec’16.
For the month of December 2016, FII outflows in equities totalled at Rs.887.16crores ($129.54 million) as on 19thDecember
2016. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.27855.31crores ($4242.27 million) as on 19thDecember 2016.
US Dollar Index declined around 0.05 percent in Monday’s trading session on account of unfavourable economic data from the
country. Further, rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency.
US Flash Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) plunged by 1.2 points to 53.4-mark in December as against a rise of 54.6-
level in November.
Euro against dollar dropped around 0.43 percent on Monday on account of strength in the dollar index in early part of the
trade. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned due to favourable economic data from the country along with
upbeat global market sentiments.
German Ifo Business Climate surged by 0.6 points to 111-mark in December as against a rise of 110.4-level in November.
The Sterling Pound declined around 0.72 percent in Monday’s trade as a result of stronger dollar in early part of the trade.
However, upbeat global market sentiments restricted sharp downside in the currency.
The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated around 0.62 percent in Monday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in
global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
Japan’s Trade Balance was at a surplus of 0.54 trillion Yen in November as against a surplus of 0.47 trillion Yen in October.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 102.85 102.9 (0.05) (0.05)
USD/INR(Spot) 67.88 67.84 0.04 0.06
USD/INR(NseDec) 67.91 67.80 0.11 0.16
EUR/INR(Spot) 70.83 70.91 (0.08) (0.11)
EUR/INR(NseDec) 70.95 70.99 (0.04) (0.06)
GBP/INR(Spot) 84.36 84.69 (0.33) (0.39)
GBP/INR(NseDec) 84.50 84.41 0.09 0.11
JPY/INR(NseDec) 57.98 57.49 0.49 0.85
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On daily chart JPYINR price has shown breakdown of its
falling wedge pattern at 62 levels. The price has given
breakdown of its horizontal trend line at 58.50 levels on
daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading below its 21 DEMA
which gives the sign of bearishness in the prices.
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI is trading below
40 levels which suggest further weakness can be seen in
the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown neg-
ative crossover and remained below signal line on daily
chart.
So for trading perspective, one could JPYINR sell in the
range of 58 with SL of 58.40 for target of 57.30 levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has shown breakout of its falling trend line at
67.50 levels on daily chart. On daily chart USDINR price
has retested its falling trend line at 67.20 levels.
On daily chart price has taken support of its 61.80% Fib-
onacci retracement levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 50 DEMA
which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator RSI has been trading above 40
levels, which suggest further positive momentum can be
seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown
positive crossover on hourly chart.
So for trading perspective, one could buy USDINR in
range 67.60 with SL of 67.20 for target of 68.30.
Currency Highlights
20th
Dec’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 67.51 67.68 67.80 67.85 67.97 68.02 68.19
JPYINR 57.31 57.60 57.79 57.89 58.08 58.18 58.47

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
20th
Dec’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has shown breakdown of its falling channel a
pattern at 72 levels on daily chart. The EURINR pair has
shown horizontal trend line at 72.50 levels on daily
chart.
The pair has been trading below its 21 DEMA on daily
chart, which suggest further weakness can be seen in
the prices.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI has remained
below 50 which suggest bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart, which add more bearishness
in the prices.
For now we can expect prices should move lower to-
wards 70.20 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
The price has shown breakdown of its rising channel
pattern at 85 levels on daily chart. The pair has been
facing resistance of its falling trend line at 86.10 levels
on daily chart. The prices have been facing resistance of
its horizontal line at 86 levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading below 50 DEMA,
which suggest short term trend looks negative.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has given nega-
tive cross over on daily chart, which gives the sign of
bearishness in the prices.
The momentum indictor RSI has been trading below 60
levels on daily chart, which suggest the possibilities of
further weakness in the prices.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards
83.70 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 83.77 84.17 84.33 84.57 84.73 84.97 85.37
EURINR 70.70 70.84 70.90 70.98 71.04 71.12 71.26

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
20th
Dec’2016
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
20.12.16 Tentative BOJ Policy Rate -0.10% -0.10% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; JPYINR
20.12.16 Tentative Monetary Policy Statement 110.4 110.7 More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
JPYINR
20.12.16 Tentative BOJ Press Conference 54.6 55.2 More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
JPYINR
20.12.16 02:30 PM Current Account 25.3B 24.2 Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; EURINR
20.12.16 07:30 PM CB Leading Index m/m 0.8% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; CNY

5. Currency Highlights
20th
Dec’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Anish Vyas
Digitally signed by Anish Vyas
DN: cn=Anish Vyas, o=Choice Merchandise
Broking Pvt. Ltd, ou=Sr. Research Associate,
email=anish.vyas@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.12.20 08:59:25 +05'30'