The document provides currency highlights and analysis for the Indian rupee and other global currencies such as the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen and British pound on December 14th, 2016, noting that the rupee depreciated due to dollar demand from importers while also outlining technical analysis and views on currency pairs. Key economic data from countries like India, the UK and US are also listed alongside their expected impact on currencies.

1. Currency Highlights
14th
Dec’2016
HighLights:
 India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 3.63 percent in November
 US Import Prices fell by 0.3 percent in the previous month
 UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 1.2 percent in November
 Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment jumped to 18.1-mark in December
 Japan’s Tankan Manufacturing Index gained to 10-mark in Dec quarter
Indian Rupee remained under pressure and depreciated around 12 paise to
close around 67.54 against the US dollar on Tuesday. The currency depreciat-
ed on account of dollar demand from importers and bankers. Further,
strength in the dollar index kept pressure on the currency. Additionally, in-
vestors were cautious ahead of the key economic data sets to be released
from the country.
However, sharp downside in the currency was prevented as a result of up-
beat domestic market sentiments. So far this year, foreign institutional inves-
tors have bought $4.23 billion in equities and sold $6.3 billion in debt. Indian
Rupee moved in the range of 67.385 to 67.525 in Tuesday’s trade. The Re-
serve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for the dollar was seen at
67.4867 and Euro stood at 71.7654 as on 13th Dec’16.
India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) plunged to 3.63 percent in November from 4.20 percent in October. For the month of December 2016,
FII inflows in equities totalled at Rs.472.57 crores ($71.74 million) as on 13th December 2016. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood
at Rs.29215.04 crores ($4443.55 million) as on 13th December 2016.
US Dollar Index rose around 0.1 percent in Tuesday’s trading session ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting with respect to hike in inter-
est rates. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped due to rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments which led to decline in
demand for the low yielding currency. US National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Index rose by 3.5 points to
98.4-mark in November from 94.9-level in October. Import Prices fell by 0.3 percent in November with respect to gain of 0.4 percent a
month ago.
Euro against dollar fell around 0.1 percent on Tuesday on account of strength in the dollar index. However, upbeat global market senti-
ments coupled with favourable economic data from the region cushioned sharp fall in the currency. German Final Consumer Price Index
(CPI) remained unchanged at 0.1 percent in November. German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) dropped to 0.1 percent in November from a
rise of 0.4 percent in October. German ZEW Economic Sentiment unchanged at 13.8-mark in existing month. Employment Change fell to
0.2 percent in Q3 of 2016 with respect to 0.4 percent in previous quarter. Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment jumped by 2.3 points to
18.1-mark in December when compared to 15.8-level in November.
The Sterling Pound dropped around 0.2 percent in Tuesday’s trade as a result of stronger dollar. However, upbeat global market senti-
ments along with optimistic economic data from the country restricted sharp fall in the currency. UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to
1.2 percent in November as against a rise of 0.9 percent in October. Producer Price Index (PPI) Input declined to 1.1 percent in previous
month from a gain of 4.5 percent in October. Retail Price Index (RPI) jumped to 2.2 percent in November with respect to 2 percent a month
ago.
The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated around 0.14 percent in Tuesday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in global market
sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency.
Japan’s Tankan Manufacturing Index jumped by 4 points to 10-mark for the quarter ending in Dec’16 as against a rise of 6-level in previous
quarter. Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index unchanged at 18-level in fourth quarter of the current year.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 101.13 101 0.13 0.13
USD/INR(Spot) 67.56 67.42 0.14 0.21
USD/INR(NseDec) 67.60 67.58 0.02 0.03
EUR/INR(Spot) 71.67 71.70 (0.03) (0.04)
EUR/INR(NseDec) 71.78 71.80 (0.02) (0.03)
GBP/INR(Spot) 85.88 85.47 0.41 0.48
GBP/INR(NseDec) 85.86 85.82 0.04 0.05
JPY/INR(NseDec) 58.65 58.63 0.02 0.03
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On daily chart JPYINR price has shown breakdown of its
falling channel pattern at 61.60 levels. The price has giv-
en breakdown of its horizontal trend line at 61.30 levels
on daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading below its 21 DEMA
which gives the sign of bearishness in the prices.
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI is trading below
40 levels which suggest further weakness can be seen in
the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown neg-
ative crossover and trading below signal line on daily
chart.
So for trading perspective, one could JPYINR sell in the
range of 59.80 with SL of 59.20 for target of 59 levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has shown breakout of its rectangle pattern at
67.30 levels on daily chart. On daily chart USDINR price
has retested its upper band of channel pattern at 67.40
levels.
On daily chart price has taken support of its 61.80% Fib-
onacci retracement levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 50 DEMA
which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator RSI has been trading above 40
levels, which suggest further positive momentum can be
seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown
positive crossover on hourly chart.
So for trading perspective, one could buy USDINR in
range 67.40 with SL of 67 for target of 68.10.
Currency Highlights
14th
Dec’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 67.26 67.41 67.50 67.56 67.65 67.71 67.86
JPYINR 58.23 58.46 58.56 58.69 58.79 58.92 59.15

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
14th
Dec’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has shown breakdown of its falling channel a
pattern at 72 levels on daily chart. The EURINR pair has
shown horizontal trend line at 72.50 levels on daily
chart.
The pair has been trading below its 21 DEMA on daily
chart, which suggest further weakness can be seen in
the prices.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI have been trad-
ing below 50which suggest bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart, which add more bearishness
in the prices.
For now we can expect prices should move lower to-
wards 71 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
The pair has been facing resistance of its falling trend
line at 86.10 levels on daily chart. The prices have been
facing resistance of its horizontal line at 86 levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading below 21 DEMA,
which suggest short term trend looks negative.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has given nega-
tive cross over on daily chart, which gives the sign of
bearishness in the prices.
The momentum indictor RSI has been trading below 60
levels on daily chart, which suggest the possibilities of
further weakness in the prices.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards
85 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 84.99 85.39 85.62 85.79 86.02 86.19 86.59
EURINR 71.35 71.59 71.69 71.83 71.93 72.07 72.31

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
14th
Dec’2016
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
14.12.16 03:00 PM Average Earnings Index 3m/
y
2.3% 2.3% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; GBPINR
14.12.16 03:00 PM Claimant Count Change 9.8K 6.2K Actual < Forecast = Good
for currency; GBPINR
14.12.16 05:45 PM BOE Gov Carney Speaks More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
GBPINR
14.12.16 07:00 PM Core Retail Sales m/m 0.8% 0.4% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
14.12.16 07:00 PM PPI m/m 0.0% 0.1% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
14.12.16 07:00 PM Retail Sales m/m 0.8% 0.3% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
14.12.16 09:00 PM Crude Oil Inventories -2.4M

5. Currency Highlights
14th
Dec’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Anish Vyas
Digitally signed by Anish Vyas
DN: cn=Anish Vyas, o=Choice Merchandise
Broking Pvt. Ltd, ou=Sr. Research Associate,
email=anish.vyas@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.12.14 08:41:15 +05'30'