The document provides details of the hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment conducted for crowd management and security planning for the Kumbh Mela festival in Nashik in 2015-16. Key points include: - Identifying hazards associated with the festival and prioritizing risks, with a focus on mitigating the highest risks first. - Conducting extensive training for police and other personnel on crowd control, disaster management, and other emergency response techniques. - Developing contingency plans to ensure normal operations can continue or quickly resume in case of any disruptions.

1. Disaster Management Plan
Hazard , Vulnerability , Risk , Assessment
(HVRA)
&
Training
for
Nashik Police Commissionerate
Kumbh Mela – 2015-16

2. Prepared by:
Kulwant K Sarangal ,IPS ,Spl. IGP,
Maharashtra Police
Rajeev Choubey
Alumnus- World Bank Group & World Bank Institute
(WBI) – SR-101 & CF * NIDM , New Delhi C4D-
Learning from Mega disasters -WBI

3. Detailed assessment, planning and
preparation before an event may never
prove infallible, but with the involvement
of appropriate personnel and the
commitment of the right resources, the
potential for injury, illness, death and
disaster will at least be reduced…

4. Objectives
 Identify all of the hazards that may be associated with Kumbh
Mela and what level of risk they represent.
 Prioritize the hazards based on the level of risk they represent
 Focus efforts on the highest priority risks first.
 Develop mitigation plans to eliminate or reduce the level of risk for
each element as much as possible.
 Determine if the level of risk remaining is acceptable or if
additional mitigation efforts are required. Impart training to all
involved on the basis of the assessment.

5. 1. Need for Risk Assessment
• Hazard and Risk Assessment is the heart of an event plan
from which all other planning is based upon. There will
always be some level of risk to any event. We cannot expect
to achieve a risk-free event; but strive to reduce and
managed the risks. We do this all the time both consciously
and unconsciously during the course of a day and when we
plan events. The problem is everyone has a different ability
to recognize hazards and each has a different tolerance for
risk. It is therefore important to follow a clear and defined
process to ensure all significant hazards have been
identified and there is clarity for everyone on the level of
risk they pose. Without this clarity, decision makers are
unable to make reliable decisions and authorities will not
focus their attention and planning on the most important
issues.

10. Identifying hazards
associated with Kumbh Mela
and level of risk they
represent..

19. Focus on the highest priority
risks first…

28. Very old and dilapidated
structures
Extremely narrow Roads - a danger
of overcrowding
Risk that were identified

29. Steep Gradient leading towards ghat Low hanging overhead electric
cables

30. Mismanagement of Floodplain : Ghats being constructed in
Floodway

31. 2. Security
• Security was not treated as an additional assignment for police
personnel to increase their daily workload and professional
responsibility. Plan thus prepared was a scalable model that
incorporated the small-scale everyday duties up to the large-
scale multi-agency security response.
• Based upon this strategy incorporating new institutional
paradigm, risk-informed decisions, and in-inbuilt safety and
security, we set upon to establish clear mission targets as given
below:
i. Defined tactics and operations for each task
ii. Engaged in thorough planning based upon decided tactics
and operations
iii. Defined clear roles and responsibilities
iv. Training based upon strategy, tactics and operations
v. Investments toward information and communication systems

32. 3. Planning and operation cycle
• Research
• Design
• Planning process
• Plan management
• Subcommittee plans
• Resource identification and acquisition process
• Training and testing
• Operations
• Recovery
• After action

33. Developing mitigation plans
to eliminate or reduce the
level of risk for each element
as much as possible

35. Conducting Risk Assessment
with different stakeholders and
taking inputs from them to
mitigate risk

37. 4. Made an allowance for flexibility to avoid any strategic
surprises. Command, control, coordination and
communication
• Made investments in training for command and control
• Planned various kinds of communication equipment
• Horizontal/vertical communication
• External communication
• Analyse past experiences of the department to know what
went well and what could have been done better for risk
reduction and emergency response by the department.
Document it as lessons learnt and use them as training tool.

38. Table top exercise
and Training on Disaster Management ,IRS and
Stampede
Management with view to integrate the concept in
the actual planning
based on HVRA
Conducted by :
Rajeev Choubey and his team in the presence of
Hon. Police Commissioner Kulwant K.
Sarangal IPS
For DCP’s , ACP’s & PI

44. Weekly training for
all Senior Police
Personnel

47. 5. Crowd Management Training
Most of the crowd disasters are man-made, which can be completely
prevented with proactive and holistic planning and flawless
execution.
 Planning and preparation, using a wide range of “what if...?”
scenarios, including unexpected scenarios.
 Capacity Planning : -
As observed, in India, religious places have high probability of
crowd disasters. Obviously, their locations have also played some
role in crowd disasters. A large number of religious sites in the
country have following characteristics:
a. Located atop hills/mountains with difficult terrain
b. In existence for many centuries
c. Mostly narrow, winding uphill pathways along steep hillsides
d. Access routes are prone to landslides and other natural dangers;
Chances of accidents are high

48. e. Narrow, winding and sloping routes
f. Lack of adequate space for the projected crowd
g. Inadequate number of entry and exit points and routes
 Communication with the whole crowd – both audio and
visual – particularly in emergency situations.

49.  Understanding Crowd Behaviour
• Individual behaviour in a crowd is sometimes influenced by
the behaviour of others. The individuals within a crowd may
act differently than if they were on their own. The
inappropriate actions of a few people can result in larger
numbers following them. Research has shown that
understanding of crowd behaviour has led to community based
approach to crowd control instead of force based control. For
example, the excessive wait at places of worship may result in
a few devotees climbing up the fences which could lead to a
large number following them causing overcrowding in another
area. It is therefore essential to monitor the crowd behaviour
on continuous basis to spot unrest, disquiet, and abnormal
crowd densities with the help of designated police personnel
and the volunteers to address the causes of such behaviour at
right time and place.

50. Approx. 2800 constables from
Nashik Commissionerate
trained on crowd control and
crowd management
techniques …

53. Daily three session indoor
training conducted for
constables..

55. Trained around 500 Traffic Police
on Traffic Management

59. 6. Contingency management
• To ensure that normal operations are resumed in the affected area as
early as possible and normal operations are not disrupted in non-
emergency areas. In case normal operations are not likely to be
resumed in the affected area at an early stage, then to ensure that
contingency plan to continue the normal operations by diversion etc.
is activated.
• In case normal operations are not continued for some or the other
reason, contingency plan for resuming the operations should
immediately be activated in consultation with the appropriate
authority.
• As and when contingency plan is activated, emergency services
should be guided to direct their efforts accordingly.
• In case contingency plan is activated, pilgrims will also be advised
accordingly and guided to take the alternative routes etc.

67. Approx. 1000
Volunteers /line staff
trained ...

76. Scenarios/Simulat ions
conducted on Ram Ghat