Crime Analysis

Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymond E. Foster
Police TechnologyPolice Technology
Chapter TwelveChapter Twelve
Crime AnalysisCrime Analysis

Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo
Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives
 Understand the definition of crimeUnderstand the definition of crime
analysis and underpinning theoriesanalysis and underpinning theories
 Understand the applications of crimeUnderstand the applications of crime
analysisanalysis
 Be exposed to how crime analysis canBe exposed to how crime analysis can
be used to solve community problemsbe used to solve community problems
and advanced crime mapping topicsand advanced crime mapping topics

IntroductionIntroduction
Without the component of criminalWithout the component of criminal
investigations, neither the Communityinvestigations, neither the Community
Policing nor Problem-OrientedPolicing nor Problem-Oriented
Policing models have value.Policing models have value.

IntroductionIntroduction
At the core, the functionsAt the core, the functions
of state and local lawof state and local law
enforcement remain:enforcement remain:
 PreventionPrevention
 Investigation, andInvestigation, and
 ApprehensionApprehension

and Community-Oriented Policingand Community-Oriented Policing
 Problem solving is a criticalProblem solving is a critical
component of the COP model.component of the COP model.
 An essential part of problemAn essential part of problem
solving is an examination ofsolving is an examination of
incidents, their relationships toincidents, their relationships to
each other, and their relationshipseach other, and their relationships
to underlying problems.to underlying problems.

 One of the ways police officers useOne of the ways police officers use
their expertise in problem solving istheir expertise in problem solving is
through the analysis of crime.through the analysis of crime.
 Crime analysis starts with crimeCrime analysis starts with crime
mapping.mapping.
 A crime may be the result of a varietyA crime may be the result of a variety
of other factors.of other factors.

Crime mapping is about:Crime mapping is about:
 Problem solvingProblem solving
 The identification ofThe identification of
the problemthe problem
 Using the informationUsing the information
gained from analysisgained from analysis
to mitigate theto mitigate the
problemproblem

Scanning-Analysis-Response-Scanning-Analysis-Response-
AssessmentAssessment::
One of the most prevalent problem-solvingOne of the most prevalent problem-solving
methodologies used by policemethodologies used by police
departmentsdepartments
S A R AS A R A

What Are the BenefitsWhat Are the Benefits
of Crime Analysis?of Crime Analysis?
 The ability to show relationshipsThe ability to show relationships
between crime and casual factors.between crime and casual factors.
 Promotes information integrationPromotes information integration
and cooperation among differentand cooperation among different
police agencies and otherpolice agencies and other
government agenciesgovernment agencies

 A COP enhancer because they canA COP enhancer because they can
assist in the establishment ofassist in the establishment of
partnerships with other non-lawpartnerships with other non-law
enforcement agencies.enforcement agencies.
 Can enhance communication withinCan enhance communication within
and without the police department.and without the police department.
Crime Analysis and COPCrime Analysis and COP

These relationship factors may be:These relationship factors may be:
 SpatialSpatial in nature (resulting from itsin nature (resulting from its
proximity to a location).proximity to a location).
 TemporalTemporal – Having to do with a– Having to do with a
certain time periodcertain time period
Time, Space and CrimeTime, Space and Crime

DisplacementDisplacement
 Crime analysis information is used toCrime analysis information is used to
deploy more officers in an area that isdeploy more officers in an area that is
experiencing a higher crime rate.experiencing a higher crime rate.
 The deployment of more officersThe deployment of more officers
stops the crime form occurring therestops the crime form occurring there
and then – It is displaced.and then – It is displaced.
 DisplacementDisplacement can be spatial orcan be spatial or
temporal.temporal.

IncapacitationIncapacitation
 Most crime is committed by a veryMost crime is committed by a very
small percentage of a community.small percentage of a community.
 The police should be targeting theirThe police should be targeting their
efforts on those individualsefforts on those individuals
 If an offender is arrested instead ofIf an offender is arrested instead of
being displaced,being displaced, incapacitationincapacitation
occurs.occurs.

Serial CrimesSerial Crimes
 Multiple crimes committed by anMultiple crimes committed by an
offender or group of offenders, whichoffender or group of offenders, which
occur over a period of time.occur over a period of time.
 Crime analysis is moving towards theCrime analysis is moving towards the
identification of serial crimes and theidentification of serial crimes and the
targeting of serial offenderstargeting of serial offenders

Rational Choice, Situational CrimeRational Choice, Situational Crime
Prevention, and Crime AnalysisPrevention, and Crime Analysis
Situational CrimeSituational Crime
Prevention isPrevention is
based on two things:based on two things:
 OffenderOffender
opportunityopportunity andand
 Rational ChoiceRational Choice
TheoryTheory

Offenders choose to commit crimesOffenders choose to commit crimes
when:when:
 The opportunity is rightThe opportunity is right
 They have enough information thatThey have enough information that
the value of the crime is more thanthe value of the crime is more than
the risk of punishment (risk vs. value)the risk of punishment (risk vs. value)
Offender opportunityOffender opportunity

Routine Activity TheoryRoutine Activity Theory
Three parts to thisThree parts to this
theory:theory:
 An offenderAn offender
 A victimA victim
 The absence of anThe absence of an
interfering orinterfering or
restraining force –restraining force –
something that adds tosomething that adds to
the risk of detection.the risk of detection.

The Basic RequirementsThe Basic Requirements
for Crime Analysisfor Crime Analysis
 You cannot conduct modernYou cannot conduct modern
crime analysis without mappingcrime analysis without mapping
capabilitiescapabilities
 You cannot conduct geographicYou cannot conduct geographic
and statistical analysis withoutand statistical analysis without
minimal hardware and softwareminimal hardware and software

At minimum you need . . .At minimum you need . . .
 A laptop or desktopA laptop or desktop
computer withcomputer with
sufficient speedsufficient speed
 Hard disk storage toHard disk storage to
accommodate youraccommodate your
data and functionsdata and functions
 A high-quality printerA high-quality printer
that can handle colorthat can handle color
maps and workload.maps and workload.

Where does the data come from?Where does the data come from?
Two types of data needed:Two types of data needed:
 Mapping dataMapping data – general data– general data
about your communityabout your community
 Crime dataCrime data – specific data about– specific data about
criminal occurrences in yourcriminal occurrences in your
communitycommunity

The Analysis of a CrimeThe Analysis of a Crime
Crime analysis begins withCrime analysis begins with
statistical analysisstatistical analysis. Mapping is. Mapping is
critical to crime analysis, but itcritical to crime analysis, but it
is not the starting point.is not the starting point.

Mean numberMean number
the averagethe average
Burglaries 2003/4Burglaries 2003/4
JanJan 8282
FebFeb 7878
MarMar 7575
AprilApril 7474
MayMay 7575
JuneJune 8080
JulyJuly 7272
AugAug 7575
SeptSept 7878
OctOct 8080
NovNov 110110
DecDec 114114
993993
993 / 12 = 82993 / 12 = 82

The Analysis of a CrimeThe Analysis of a Crime
 Begins with look at average occurrencesBegins with look at average occurrences
as compared to another period.as compared to another period.
 This can indicate a rise in crime.This can indicate a rise in crime.
 After initial statistical analysis thatAfter initial statistical analysis that
indicates a rise, the search for patternsindicates a rise, the search for patterns
begins.begins.
 A search for patterns – time, date, method ofA search for patterns – time, date, method of
operation, etc, can lead to potential solutionsoperation, etc, can lead to potential solutions

Hot SpotsHot Spots
 An area that traditionally has aAn area that traditionally has a
lot of crime orlot of crime or
 An area with an unusualAn area with an unusual
increase in crimeincrease in crime

ForecastingForecasting
 The use ofThe use of
mathematical modelsmathematical models
to predict the nextto predict the next
likely occurrencelikely occurrence

ForecastingForecasting
 Attempting to predictAttempting to predict
future events by usingfuture events by using
past events as apast events as a
guide.guide.
 TemporalTemporal analysis isanalysis is
the most common typethe most common type
of forecastingof forecasting
 SpatialSpatial analysis is lessanalysis is less
commoncommon

and Problemsand Problems
 A problem is a cluster of incidents.A problem is a cluster of incidents.
 The relationship of the problem toThe relationship of the problem to
space and time may provide informationspace and time may provide information
about the solution.about the solution.
 Perhaps causation like driving under thePerhaps causation like driving under the
influence arrests and the location ofinfluence arrests and the location of
locations that sell alcoholic beverageslocations that sell alcoholic beverages
 Perhaps causation like the presence of anPerhaps causation like the presence of an
active offenderactive offender

Geographic ProfilingGeographic Profiling
 Used with serial crimes (typically theUsed with serial crimes (typically the
most serious crimes)most serious crimes)
 Used to determine offender’sUsed to determine offender’s
geographic attributes (where theygeographic attributes (where they
might live, work, and socialize).might live, work, and socialize).

Takes the attributes of time, space,Takes the attributes of time, space,
behavior, target, and offender andbehavior, target, and offender and
analyzes their spatial and temporalanalyzes their spatial and temporal
information in order to determine aninformation in order to determine an
offender’soffender’s activity spaceactivity space (the hunting(the hunting
area).area).
Geographic ProfilingGeographic Profiling

Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymond E. Foster
Police TechnologyPolice Technology
Go to theGo to the Student ResourcesStudent Resources
page atpage at
www.hitechcj.comwww.hitechcj.com

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