PredPol’s cloud-based predictive policing software enables law enforcement agencies to better prevent crime in their communities by generating predictions on the places and times that future crimes are most likely to occur. PredPol’s technology has been helping law enforcement agencies to dramatically reduce crime in jurisdictions of all types and sizes, across the U.S. and overseas. Over the past year, Atlanta and Los Angeles have reduced specific crimes in targeted areas at rates ranging from nearly 20% to over 40%. Smaller jurisdictions, such as Norcross, Georgia, have seen nearly a 30% reduction in burglaries and robberies; in Alhambra, California, car burglaries have dropped 20% since the software technology was deployed. Using advanced mathematics and computer learning, PredPol’s algorithms predict many types of crime, including property crimes, drug incidents, gang activity, and gun violence as well as traffic accidents. Only three pieces of data are used to make predictions – type of crime, place of crime, and time of crime. No personal data is utilized in making these predictions. Crime analysts and command staff using PredPol are 100% more effective than they are with traditional hotspot mapping at predicting where and when crimes are likely to occur. That means police have twice as many opportunities to deter and reduce crime.

2. Evolution From CompStat to Crime
Mapping to Predictive Policing
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
Professional
Policing
Community
Policing
CompStat Crime Mapping Predictive
Policing
This is the next era of policing. . .
Very soon, we will be using a predictive policing model where, by studying real-time crime patterns, we
can anticipate where a crime is likely to occur.
—William Bratton, Commissioner of NYPD and Former Chief of LAPD & Boston PD
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
LAPD’s toolkit now relies heavily on predictive policing.
— Former Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa , Los Angeles California

3. Predictive Policing Is:
• Cloud software technology created by police
in Los Angeles & Santa Cruz, CA
• Provider of the highest risk places for future crime
for each shift (not for the whole week or month)
• High level mathematics combined with analysts
and veteran officers
www.predpol.com

4. PredPol Has:
• Tested results and many deployments
• Tools to measure your success every day,
so that you know whether and how it’s
impacting crime for you
• Automated mapmaking, direct delivery to
patrol officers, many crime types, GPS &
mobile tools
www.predpol.com

5. Outline
Making predictive policing practical
The science behind predictive policing
Testing predictive policing in the field
www.predpol.com

6. Policing Crime Patterns Is A Challenge
Long-term Resource
Allocation
Traditional heat map showing activity
over for a full year
Chase Overnight
Crime
There are many hotspots &
they move day to day
www.predpol.com

7. Making Predictions
Practical & More Accurate
TACTICAL AMBIGUITY
rear-view mirror heat map
TACTICAL CLARITY
forward-looking PredPol boxes
www.predpol.com

8. Deployment To Officers
In The Field
Lists or maps of predictions in 500’ x 500’ boxes
distributed at start of shift or on-demand
‘get in the box’ to disrupt crime during patrols
LAPD Deployment Santa Cruz PD Deployment
www.predpol.com

9. Deployments Include
Seattle, WA
Atlanta, GA
Los Angeles, CA
Orange County, FL
Franklin Twp., NJ
Reading, PA
www.predpol.com
Miami Gardens, FL
Elgin, IL
Little Rock, AR
Kent, England
Montevideo, Uruguay

10. Track Record
Initial Deployment In L.A. Saw Quick Impact
www.predpol.com
-12%
L.A. Foothill Division
Property Crime
Nov ‘11 to May ‘12
Source: LAPD

11. Track Record
Third Year In L.A. Still Having An Effect
-20%
Foothill Division Property Crime
Jan’14-June’14
(year over year)
Source: LAPD’s Capt. Sean Malinowski, July 2014
www.predpol.com

12. Track Record
After Deployment In Santa Cruz (pop. 61,000)
First Full Year
Burglaries 11%
Robberies 8%
Assaults 7%
Source: Santa Cruz Deputy Chief Steve Clark, April 2014
www.predpol.com

13. Track Record
After Deployment In Norcross, GA (pop. 10,000)
-22.7%
“We’re down 22.7% when comparing
10 months using PredPol to the same
10 months before using PredPol.”
Capt. Bill Grogan
August 2013 – Spring 2014
Source: Norcross Capt. Bill Grogan, June’14
www.predpol.com

14. Track Record
After Deployment In Alhambra, CA (pop.
84,000)
-15%
Alhambra Property Crimes
1st half 2012
vs.
1st half 2013
www.predpol.com
Source: Alhambra Chief Mark Yokoyama

15. Track Record
After Deployment In Atlanta (pop. 440.000)
-20%
July 2013–April 2014
“We pride ourselves on being a
Department that is not satisfied with
the status quo.”
Chief George Turner
Source: Atlanta Police Department via USDoJ Bureau of Justice Assistance, May 2014
www.predpol.com

16. Crime Reductions Free Up Money
That You Can Re-direct to More Analysts & Officers
www.predpol.com
Cost Per Crime
L.A. Savings With
Only 4.3 Crimes
Per Week Prevented

17. Day To Day User Experience
Access & log-in
Set prediction options
Set crime mapping options
Generate prediction and crime mapping reports
Brief patrol at morning roll-call
Get-in-the-box
www.predpol.com

18. Day to Day Use
www.predpol.com
www.

19. PredPol Offers Time & Place
While Officers Determine Tactics
Problem-oriented Environmental Design Community Policing
CITY
Micro place-based Intelligence-led Broken-windows
www.predpol.com

20. What’s Behind This Technology?
“I’m not going to get more money. I’m not going to get more cops. I have to be
better at using what I have, and that’s what predictive policing is about”
www.predpol.com
Los Angeles Police Chief Charlie Beck, CBS Evening News

21. www.predpol.com
Data Flow
Police Reports -> Predictions -> Users
Police RMS
(database)
User
Geocode Algorith
m
Hotspot
Ranking
Database
Crime report
Victim
PredPol Computers

22. www.predpol.com
Cloud-based Service Set-up
• Custom Java software running continuously on a
machine within your network (analogous to
public mapping software) to upload crime report
info to PredPol server
• Information is encrypted and transmitted
securely to PredPol for analysis
• For each crime report: address, date, time, crime
type (no personal information required)

23. Other Required Information
www.predpol.com
• Shift schedules
• Latitude/longitude boundaries of each
SFPD division
• Crime type codes used in RMS

24. Data
+
Criminal behaviors
+
Advanced
mathematics
=
Highest probabilities
of crime
www.predpol.com

25. “Mathematizing” Criminal Behavior
Repeat Victimization
Local
Search
Crime Patterns Mathematical Model
www.predpol.com
¶A
¶t
= B+
hD
4
Ñ2A-w A+qwd
Environment
Near-repeats

26. Only Type Of Crime, Place Of Crime,
And Time Of Crime Are Used
More recent crimes given heavier weight.
“Impersonal” data avoids profiling & privacy issues.
www.predpol.com

27. How Do We Know It Works?
Accuracy & Efficacy
Olympic
Southwest
Foothill Division of 250,000 people was first
www.predpol.com
Foothill
N. Hollywood
Hollenbeck
Harbor

28. Years of Testing, Proven in the Field
Los Angeles Crime Reductions Starting in 2011
LAPD’s Foothill Division
First Six Months
12%
How do we know predictions worked in
Los Angeles? Foothill Division was first to
deploy & significantly outperformed
Van Nuys
% Change on Previous Year
West Valley
North Hollywood
Foothill
Devonshire
Mission
Topanga
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
other divisions …
Rest of L.A. During
Same Period
0.4%

29. How Do We Know It Works?
The Impact on Property Crime
www.predpol.com
Month
-12%
Start of LAPD rollout in Nov. 2011
2010-2011
2011-2012

30. Twice As Accurate As
Rear View Mirror Crime Mapping
www.predpol.com
Predictive Policing
Cops-on-the-dots
Random

31. Los Angeles Predictive Accuracy
3 Divisions, Single Blind Controlled Study
www.predpol.com
2.3x
Hot Spot Mapping

32. Atlanta Phased Deployment (444,000 Pop.)
Aggregate crime declined by 8 % and
9% in the two zones that first
deployed predictive policing, with
burglary and car thefts falling 10-
www.predpol.com
28%.
Source: Atlanta Police Foundation, April 2014
-8% -9%

33. How Will You Know It’s Working For You?
www.predpol.com

34. ‘Radar’ Gives You Day To Day Tracking Of
The Impact Of The Predictive Boxes
• Allows you to track effectiveness of
predictions in your jurisdiction
• Identifies missed patrolling opportunities &
maintains officer buy-in
• Helps identify leading indicator crimes to
improve predictions of your target crimes
www.predpol.com

35. Radar Tells You Whether Crime Is Up Or
Down...
www.predpol.com

36. … And Radar Tracks Number of Crimes
Occurring in Box and Perimeter Boxes.
www.predpol.com

37. PredPol Has:
www.predpol.com
Track record of success
(so you’re no one’s predictive policing pilot)
Easy installation and requires no new hires & no new hardware,
with no limit on users
A significant economic return that will
free up money for additional needs & personnel
Tools to measure effectiveness every day
(so you don’t have to rely only on successes elsewhere)

39. Thank You!