The document discusses communication technology in the future using several frameworks and theories. It describes the Umbrella Perspective for analyzing technologies and how they relate to users. Several adoption models are covered, including Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations theory and Moore's Innovation Adoption Rate. Emerging technologies like electronic textbooks and autonomous vehicles are discussed. Media dependency, uses and gratifications, and social cognitive theories are also referenced in relation to future communication advancements.

1. Communication and
Technology in the Future
2021 A.D.
By: Melissa Herberger

2. The Umbrella Perspective of Communication
The Umbrella Perspective requires you to investigate each area of a technology to fully
understand that technology. It breaks technology down into parts of an umbrella to explain it.
• The bottom of the umbrella consists of the hardware and software of the technology.
• The middle section of the umbrella is the organizational infrastructure: the group of
organizations involved in the production and distribution of the technology.
• The top of the umbrella is the system level, including the political, economic, and media
systems, as well as other groups of individuals or organizations serving a common set of
functions in society.
• The handle of the umbrella is the individual user. This represents the relationship between
the user and the technology. The relationship must be evaluated for the user to get a
handle on the technology.
Communication Technology Update by August E. Grant and Jennifer H. Meadows

3. The Umbrella Perspective
One of the most important
relationships in communication
technology is the relationship
between the technology
hardware and the physical
equipment related to the
technology. New technology
develops out of advancements in
hardware.
Communication Technology Update by August E. Grant and Jennifer H. Meadows

4. Electronic Textbooks
There is already evidence that textbooks will be replaced
with electronic textbooks. Eastern High School in
Louisville, Kentucky recently received a grant to purchase
the Kindle for their students. After a trial run with a few
students this year, the project will be school wide for the
next school year. Next year each of their 2200students will
receive the Kindle Ereader, in place of their textbooks.
It is an easy assumption that within ten years, students
will no longer carry a heavy back pack loaded down with
hard back books, they will only carry the Kindle.
Gregory Herberger, Eastern High School Assistant Principal

5. Roger’s Diffusion of Innovations
Roger’s Diffusion
of Innovations
explains how, why,
and at what rate
new technology
ideas spread
throughout
cultures and
societies.

6. Roger’s Diffusion of Innovations Theory
With successive groups of consumers adopting the new technology (shown in blue),
its market share (yellow) will eventually reach the saturation level. In mathematics the
S curve is known as the logistic function.

7. Moore’s Innovation Adoption Rate
The rate of adoption is explained as the
amount of time it takes for a culture of
society to adopt a new technology
“Geoffrey Moore (Crossing the Chasm,
1991) proposed a variation on Rogers’
model. He suggested that for
discontinuous or disruptive innovations,
there is a gap or chasm to cross
between the first two adopter groups
(innovators + early adopters) and the
early majority.”
Vincos Blog

9. “When a limited number of
people know something in a
new way, it remains
the conscious property of
only those people.
However, there is a point at
which if only one more
person tunes in to a new
awareness, that new
awareness is picked up by
everyone.”
(savepune.tripod.com/id7.ht
ml, 2011)

10. Computers in Cars
Perez Hilton posted this on his website on January 24,
2011.
“A new European technology has been developed that will actually allow you to
eat, read, and SLEEP while driving.
Yes, you read that right.
SARTRE, or Safe Road Trains for the Environment, is a new program that has
partnered with Volvo that will install an advanced steering and sensory
technology inside of cars to create a way to let cars drive themselves.
The "road train" will be a line of cars that communicates with a leader car via Wi-
Fi that will allow drivers in the other cars to spend little time paying attention to
the road.
Um, terrifying!!!
Sources say that this technology will be fully developed by 2021 and will increase
fuel efficiency by as much as 20%.”

12. Uses and Gratifications Theory
An approach to fully understand how
mass media and mass communication
relate to one another is the Uses and
Gratifications Theory.
The theory looks at how users search
for media that will not only meet their
needs, but also increase their
knowledge, social interactions and
diversion. It assumes that audience
members are active in incorporating
media into their lives. The Uses and
Gratification Theory suggests that
people are responsible for which media
outlet fulfills their needs and wants.
Media outlets must then compete to
gain the attention of consumers.

13. The Media System Dependency Theory explains how
different people are affected by the various media
outlets. There are so many different media outlets
available. The theory goes into detail about how
influential media is on people.

14. Cell phones in the Future
Not only will cell phones eventually
replace land lines all together, according
to Will Luton of Mobile Pie, they will also
replace game consoles by the year 2021.
Advancements in cell phones has
eliminated the need to carry a planner or
a photo album. Even though the cell
phone is becoming lighter in weight and
smaller in size, the capabilities are
growing.
Ten years ago, almost everyone had a
land line and fewer people had cell
phones. Now that trend has changed.
Few people have retained their land lines,
instead opting for their cell phone to take
over as their only phone. And almost
everyone, from kids to grandparents,
have cell phones.
http://www.develop-online.net/blog/225/Mobilising-Console

15. The Social Cognitive Theory pertains to
health technologies communication.
Technological advancements in health
care have enabled patients to receive
better care faster and in almost any
location. Doctors can share information
and healthcare plans with doctors in other
countries.
The advancements in prosthetics is
especially prominent. Patients that
receive prosthetics will eventually be able
to incorporate their thoughts into how
and when the prosthetics operate.
“ In ten years, the prosthetics will reduce
in size, function and in cost.” (Rebecca
Ruiz, 2007)
Social Learning Theory/Social Cognitive Theory

16. www.utwente.nl › Home › ... › Health Communication

17. The Theory of the Long Tail

18. The theory of the Long Tail is
that as our society and
economy are shifting away
from a focus on fewer "hits"
(mainstream products and
markets) at the head of the
demand curve and more
toward more frequent niches
in the tail.
As production costs go down,
there is no longer a need by
manufacturers to lump
consumers together. We are
moving away from “one size
Thelongtail.com by Chris Anderson
fits all.”

19. The Principle of Relative Constancy
analyzes financial cost spent by
advertisers versus consumer spending.
Is the amount of advertising by
manufacturers influencing how much
consumers are spending on technology
gadgets?
Economicsofadvertising.com by Andrew
Gaerig

20. Sources
• Communication Technology Update by August E. Grant and Jennifer H. Meadows
• en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations
• Vincos Blog
• savepune.tripod.com/id7.html
• en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uses_and_gratifications_theory
• www.scripps.ohiou.edu/wjmcr/vol11/
• www.utwente.nl › Home › ... › Health Communication
• Thelongtail.com by Chris Anderson
• Economicsofadvertising.com by Andrew Gaerig
• Perezhilton.com
• Gregory Herberger, Eastern High School Assitant Prinicpal
• Youtube Clip of Mike Rowe and 2012 Ford Escape
• Rebecca Ruiz msnbc.com contributor updated 11/27/2007