Carly and erin additions (1) final draft

Where Will Technology Be in
2023?
• Communications Students do
not need a Swami!

The Umbrella Perspective on
Communication Technology

• Stems from the work of
Everett M. Rogers
(1931-2004) and Sandra
J. Ball –Rokeach (b.
1941). (August E. Grant,
Jennifer H. Meadows,
Communication
Technology Update, p.
2)

• Understands Communication
Technology on Five Levels:
• Hardware: the technology
itself
• Software: the content of the
technology
• Organizational Infrastructure:
those involved in the
production/distribution of the
technology
• Social System - the political,
economic and media systems

Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations

• “Diffusion is the
process in which an
innovation is
communicated through
certain channels over
time among the
members of a social
system.” – Everett M.
Rogers, Diffusion of
Innovations: 5th
Edition, p. 5

• Elements:
• Innovation
• Communication
• Time
• Social system

• Process:
• Knowledge
• Persuasion
• Decision
• Implementation
• Confirmation

Moore’s Innovation Adoption
Rate
• In his book Crossing
the Chasm, Geoffrey
A. Moore (b. 1946)
built upon Rogers’
work and published a
theory of innovation of
adoption rate.

Moore’s Innovation Adoption Rate
• Moore posits that innovations are adopted gradually
in phases.
• These consumers are characterized as:
• Innovators
• Early adapters
• Early majority
• Late majority
• Laggards

Moore’s Innovation Adoption
Rate
• “We have a bell curve.
The divisions in the
curve are roughly
equivalent to where
standard deviations
fall” (Moore, Crossing
the Chasm, p. 11)

Critical Mass Theory
• Critical Mass Theory is
another topic
addressed thoroughly
in Everett M. Rogers’
Diffusion of
Innovations.

Critical Mass Theory
• Critical mass is the sufficient number of adopters
of a particular innovation in a social system to
make the rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining
and create further growth.

Uses and Gratifications Theory
• Uses and gratifications theory is an audience-
centered approach to understanding why and
how people actively seek out specific media to
satisfy specific needs. It is unique in it focus on
how people use media.

• Uses and
Gratifications Theory
has been developed
over time. In 1944,
Herta Herzog (1910-
2010) interviewed
soap opera listeners
and discovered three
gratifications
categories: emotional,
wishful thinking, and
learning.

• The theory underwent a revival in the 1970s.
Elihu Katz (b. 1926), Jay Blumler (b. 1924),
Michael Gurevitch (1930-2008) and others have
expanded upon Herzog's work, making great
contributions to Uses and Gratifications Theory.

• There are many reasons people use
media. Four primary factors for which
one may use the media:
• Diversion: Escape from routine and
problems; an emotional release
• Personal Relationships: Social utility
of information in conversation;
substitution of media for
companionship
• Personal Identity or Individual
Psychology: Value reinforcement or
reassurance; self-understanding,
reality exploration
• Surveillance: Information about
factors which might affect one or will
help one do or accomplish something

Media Systems Dependency Theory
• Media systems
dependency theory
was developed by
Sandra Ball-Rokeach
(b. 1941) and Melvin
DeFleur (b. 1923) in
1976 in an article titled
“A dependency model
of mass-media
effects”.
Communication
Research 3 (1): 3–21.

• Media System
Dependency Theory
argues that there is a
positive correlation
between media and
dependency: The more
dependent a person is on
media to meet needs, the
more prevalent media will
be in the person's life,
and consequently the
person will be more
affected by media.

• Ball-Rokeach and DeFleur
identify three media needs
which determine how
important media is to a person
at any given moment:
• 1. Surveillance: The need to
understand one's social world
• 2. Social Uitlity: The need to
act meaningfully and
effectively in that world
• 3) Fantasy-Escape: The need
to escape from that world
when tensions are high

Social Learning Theory/
Social Cognitive Theory
• Social cognitive theory postulates that knowledge
acquisition can be directly related to observing
others within the context of outside media
influences.

Social Learning Theory/
Social Cognitive Theory
• Social cognitive theory
developed from the
social learning theory
proposed by Neal E.
Miller (1909-2002) and
John Dollard (1900-
1980) in 1941.

The Theory of the Long Tail
• The theory of the Long Tail states that society is
increasingly shifting away from a focus on a
relatively small number mainstream products at the
head of the demand curve and toward a huge
number of niches in the tail.

• A big factor in the Theory
of the Long Tail is the
Internet. The web allows
consumers to find less
popular items and
subjects. Products with
lesser demand can now
find an audience. For
instance, Amazon, Netflix
and iTunes can afford to
feature lesser known
books, movies and
songs. respectively

• The Theory of the Long
Tail is obviously relatively
new. It was popularized by
Chris Anderson (b. 1961)
in an article in the October
2004 issue of Wired
magazine article. He
expounded on the theory
in his book The Long Tail:
Why the Future of
Business Is Selling Less of
More (2006).

The Principle of Relative
Constancy
• The Principle of
Relative Constancy
claims that the
popularity of new
media will not
completely eliminate
established forms of
media. For example,
the internet will not
make TV, radio or
newspapers obsolete.

The Principle of Relative
Constancy
• For instance, the rise
of television in the
1950s cut into the
market shares of
movies, radio and
newspapers. But those
media survived.

Smartphones
• The smart phone is a is a
mobile phone with
advanced computing
capacity and connectivity.
The device was
conceptualized in 1973
but was not produced
until 1994. The term
“smart phone” debuted in
1997, when Ericsson
dubbed its GS 88
“Penelope” concept as a
Smart Phone.

Smartphones
• In June 2013, the Pew Research Center’s Internet &
American Life Project, reported that 61% of Americans
own a smart phone.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/technology/2013/06/more-
than-half-of-americans-own-smartphones/)

Smartphones
• 61& marks a significant
jump is smart phone
ownership. According to
Pew’s previous reports,
the figure is up from 46&
in February 2012 and
35% in May 2011.
(http://abcnews.go.com/bl
ogs/technology/2013/06/
more-than-half-of-
americans-own-
smartphones/)
• Based on Moore’s
Innovation Adaptation
Rate, the smart phone
has surpassed the point
of innovators , early
adopters and early
majority and entered the
point of a late majority.

Smartphones
• In May 2013, smartphone
ownership reached critical
mass for the first time in
the United States. The
device is now self –
sustaining.
(http://news.cnet.com/830
1-1035_3-57587932-
94/smartphone-
ownership-reaches-
critical-mass-in-the-u.s/)

Smartphones
• Smartphones have the capacity to
meet most needs of the Uses and
Gratifications Theory. In June
2013, research by Parks
Associates reported that 48% of
U.S. smartphone users currently
use apps for day-to-day
information and entertainment. In
addition, 15% a smartphone
phone to order food while 12%
use the device to shop.
(http://www.mobilesecurityzone.co
m/topics/mobile-
security/articles/343963-what-
people-use-their-
smartphones.htm)

Smartphones
• Smartphones are also
exemplars of the Media
Systems Dependency
Theory. In May 2013, a
study from Experian
discovered that users
spend an average of 58
minutes per day on their
smartphones. Talk time still
outweighed times spent on
other applications.
(http://www.cnn.com/2013/0
5/29/tech/mobile/smartphon
e-time-study)

Smartphones
• Smartphones are here to
stay. It is predicted that
by 2015, 84% of mobile
users in North America
and 88% in Western
Europe will be
smartphone users.
(http://www.mobilesecurit
yzone.com/topics/mobile-
security/articles/343963-
what-people-use-their-
smartphones.htm)

The Internet
• The Internet is a global
system of interconnected
computer networks that
use the standard Internet
protocol suite. Developed
in the 1960s, the Internet
has had a tremendous
impact on culture and
commerce since the mid-
1990s and now serves
several billion users
worldwide.

The Internet
• In 1964, some
researchers had begun
using their mainframe
computers to occasionally
trade information through
an early, informal form of
email.
• This, however, wasn’t
trying to create a research
network, but rather get
their work done more
efficiently.
37

The Internet
• In 1969, critical work on the first network was being
computed.
• APARNET was developed during that time connecting
4 universities.
• APARNET- Advanced Research Projects Agency. One
of the world’s first operational packet switching
networks.
• This system provided computer scientists and
engineers the opportunity to refine ideas for a more
ideal communications network.
38

The Internet
• The ARPANET went on public display for the
first time at the international conference on
Computer Communication in October of 1972.
• The first electronic mail delivery engaging two
machines was accomplished in 1972 by Ray
Tomlinson
• By 1973, 75% of all traffic on the network was
e-mail… still mostly researchers sharing
information.
• The National Science Foundation started the
Computer Science Research Network (CSNET)
and had more than 70 sites online by 1983.
39

The Internet
• Berners- Lee brought his
“World Wide Web” to life in
1990 writing the first html
source code. It wasn’t actually
online and used by others until
a year later.
• 1990 was also the year the
ARPARNET was dismissed and
replaced by NSFNET- which
was said to be 25x faster.
• By 1995, the internet had an
estimated 16 million users.
40

The Internet
• By 2002, there were between 600 and 800 million users
in over 218 countries.
• Now, the internet is a everyday factor in billions of our
lives. It is crazy to think way back when the internet was
simply just a way to communicate with another person,
or group of people more efficiently.
• Today we use it for much more than that, whether it be
for education, shopping, paying bills, recreation, work or
anything else under the sun, it is something most of us
wouldn’t be able to go without.
41

The Internet
• As you can see, the internet has come a long way
since the 1960’s, and once it became open to the
public, there was no slowing it down.
• It took 38 years for radio to get a market of at least 50
million users; it took television 13 years to achieve 50
million users… It took just FOUR years for the internet
to achieve 50 million users after becoming public.
• With that being said, it makes it very easy to apply the
Critical Mass theory to the internet, as the rate of
adoption became self sustaining and allowed for
further growth and development.
42

The Internet in the years to
come
• The internet will continue to
become a major part in our
everyday lives, and even on a
higher level than before.
• It is estimated that by 2015, the
number of internet users will
double.. Meaning over 60% of
the world will be using the
internet in one way or another.
43

Continued
• As for the years in the 2020’s,
we can expect virtual reality
worlds. It will be as if you can
go on vacation while in the
office, or be in a conference
with someone across the world
and literally feel you are in their
office with just the click of a
button.
• This life size, 3D image will
allow people to essentially be
several places at once.
44

Social Networking
• A social networking service is a platform to build social
networks or social relations among people. Numerous
social networking applications are available to
contemporary users.

Social Networking
• In 1969, CompuServe was
the first major commercial
internet service provider
for the public in the U.S.
Played a major role up
into the early ‘90s.
46

Social Networking
How we got to where we
are…
•1971- first email
•1978- bulletin board system
was introduced, was able to
inform friends of meetings
and make announcements.
This was considered our first
“small virtual community”.
47

Social Networking
• 1984- The Prodigy online
service came about, quickly
becoming the second largest
online service provider.
• 1985- AOL opened.
• 1991- The World Wide Web
was introduced to the public.
• 1993- more than 200
webservers were online.
• 1994- Yahoo opened as a
major interent search engine.
• The internet was referred to as
“information superhighway”…
48

Social Networking
• 1997- The web has one million
sites. Blogging begins. AOL
instant messager lets people
chat. Blackboard is founded as
an online course management
system for educators and
learners.
• 1998- Google opens.
• 2000- 70 million computers
were connected to the interent.
• 2001- Wikipedia was started.
49

Social Networking
• 2002- Friendster, a social
networking website, opened to
the public.
• AOL had 34 million memebers.
• 2003- Myspace was created.
• Linkedln was started as a
business-oriented social
networking site of
professionals.
50

Social Networking
• 2004- Facebook was created.
• 2006- Twitter became public.
• 2008- Facebook had more
users than Myspace.
• 2009- Facebook ranked as
most-used social network.
• 2011- Social media was
accessible from anywhere!!
There were more than 550
million users on FB, 65 million
tweets, 2 billion video views on
YouTube and 90 million
professionals on LinkedIn.
51

Social Networking
• As you can see, Social
Networking definitely blew up in
the last few years, especially
since smart phones came
about.
• Not only is social networking
used for personal reasons, but
it is really growing on the
business end in terms of
advertising.
52

Social Networking
• When applying a theory to
explain the phenomena of
social media it only makes
sense to apply the Uses and
Gratifications theory, which
explains the many reasons of
why people use media.
• Whether it be diversion,
personal relationships, personal
identity or surveillance, millions
of people have found social
media to become an integrated
part of their life.
53

Application
• While social networking may
appear a little different in the
years to come, it certainly isn’t
going anywhere.
• We may see the disappearance
of some social media, like
Facebook, if they don’t do a
little renovation, so to speak.
Studies show that around 34%
of Facebook users say their
time on the site has decreased,
with only 3% saying they will
spend more time on the site in
the next year.
54

Application cont.
• While the use of Facebook may
be declining, social media is still
on the rise. This rise has much
to do with smart phones.
• Social media in the future will
be critical on the business end
in terms of creating a brand. In
fact, studies show with this rise
of social networking,
businesses will suffer without
social media strategy.
55

Television
• Television is a medium
for transmitting and
receiving moving images
and sounds. Kenjiro
Takayanagi
demonstrated the first
working television in
Japan in 1926. The
technology became
commercially available in
the late 1920s and has
been a primary means of
communication since the
1950s.

Television
• The first electronic
television picture was
produced in 1927 by Philo
Farnsworth.
57

Television
• Experimental broadcast
television began in the
early 1930’s, however it
wasn’t until 1947 that
television’s growth really
escaladed.
• By the 1950’s, there were
over seven million TV sets
being used.
58

Television
• While the television has been a
big part of the American life for
sometime now, it wasn’t all
smooth sailing, yet it survived.
• It survived World War II when
all but one network was
cancelled.
• It survived game show and live
T.V. scandals.
• And it has survived with the
advancement of other
technologies.
59

Application
• With it’s survival throughout the
years and continual usage by
millions of households, one
could apply The Principle of
Relative Constancy. With other
technology advancements with
the internet and smart phones,
the television will also continue
to survive and adapt in the
future.
60

Television
• While there has been fear of
“cord cutting” and losing
television to the internet, the
internet could actually be
helping television live a longer
life. Although it isn’t the tradition
television we think of when one
mentions Netflix, Hulu plus or
just watching videos through
YouTube, it is providing more
ways to watch and favor
television shows, creating a
larger audience.
61

Television
• In short, the future of the
television is being able to watch
our favorite shows any time
what we want through different
mediums. Whether it be
through a tablet, laptop,
traditional television or a smart
T.V., it will adapt and adjust to
fit the mold of the advancement
in technology.
62

Sources
• Geoffrey A. Moore, Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling Disruptive Products to Mainstream
Customer, New York: Harper Collins, Inc. 2002, p. 11
• August E. Grant and Jennifer H. Meadows, Communications Technology Update, Focal Press, 2013
p. 2
• Everett M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations: 5th Edition, New York: Harper Collins, Inc., 2002, p.11
• Joanna Stern, ABC News. “More Than Half of Americans Own Smartphones.” June 6th. 2013.
• Retrieve at: http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/technology/2013/06/more-than-half-of-americans-own-
smartphones/
• Dana Kerr, “Smartphone ownership reaches critical mass in the U.S.: For the first time ever, more
than half of the U.S. population now owns a smartphone. And people are choosing Android devices
and iPhones almost equally. June 5, 2013
• Nicholas Hoin. “What Do People Use Their Smartphones For?” June 28th, 2013
• Retrieve at http://news.cnet.com/8
• Heather Kelly. “People use smartphones nearly an hour a day, study says” May 29, 2013.
• Retrieve at: http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/29/tech/mobile/smartphone-time-study
63

Sources cont.
• Social Media Today (2013, April 29th) The Future of Social Media.
• Retrieve from: http://socialmediatoday.com/starrknight/1423216/future-social-media
• Dr. Anthony Curtis. (2013) The Brief History of Social Media.
• Retrieve from:
http://www.uncp.edu/home/acurtis/NewMedia/SocialMedia/SocialMediaHistory.html
• Graeme Mcmillian (7/30/2013) Why the Internet may actually be good for the Future of TV.
• Retrieved from: http://www.wired.com/underwire/2013/07/cord-cutting-television/
• Elon University School of Communications: Imagining the Internet: A History and Forecast.
• Retrieve from: http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/150/2016.xhtml
• http://www.emmytvlegends.org/resources/tv-history
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arpanet
• Google images
64

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