Presentation on the future of media and communications to Daimler, 9/11/13

1. The Future is Weird
Media, Technology and Configurable Culture
Dr. Aram Sinnreich Rutgers School of Communication & Information
Presented to Daimler Group, September 11, 2013
This entire presentation is freely available under a Creative Commons 3.0 Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike license
Wednesday, September 11, 13

2. A Change is Gonna Come
NOW 3 YEARS 5+ YEARS
Wednesday, September 11, 13

3. The Near Term
2013-2015
Wednesday, September 11, 13

4. Mobile Interfaces
THE FACTS
• 6.85 BILLION MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS WORLDWIDE
• 80% OF GLOBAL POPULATION HAS A MOBILE DEVICE
• 56% OF US ADULTS OWN SMARTPHONES
• 79% US CAR OWNERS USE DIGITAL DEVICES IN-CAR
• MOBILE = 12% OF MEDIA CONSUMPTION
• MOBILE = 19% OF US DIGITAL AD SPEND
• 80% OF SMARTPHONE USERS SHOP ON THEIR DEVICES
Wednesday, September 11, 13

5. Mobile Interfaces
THE CONSEQUENCES
PROS
• DRIVE TIME BECOMES INTERACTIVE
• CUSTOM MUSIC, NEWS, MARKETING, NAVIGATION
CONS
• LIMITED ATTENTION = LIMITED VALUE
• 10% OF CAR INJURIES DUE TO DISTRACTED DRIVING
X-FACTORS
• MAPS, TRAFFIC, ZIPCAR, UBER, PAYMOBILE CHANGE THE
AUTOMOTIVE ECOLOGY
Wednesday, September 11, 13

6. The Cloud
THE FACTS
• CLOUD COMPUTING IS $150
BILLION IN 2013
• 70% OF BUSINESSES
MOVING TO CLOUD
• 36% OF CONSUMER DATA IN
THE CLOUD BY 2016
• 320 MILLION APPLE ICLOUD
USERS ALONE
• 12M SITES HOSTED ON AWS,
1/3 OF ALL VISITS
Wednesday, September 11, 13

7. The Cloud
THE CONSEQUENCES
PROS
• CAR BECOMES A CENTRAL HUB IN CONSUMERS’ DIGITAL LIVES
• VALUE CHAIN EFFICIENCIES (SUPPLIERS/DEALERS/CONSUMERS)
CONS
• INCREASED THIRD-PARTY COMPETITION FOR CONSUMER
• SECURITY & PRIVACY CONCERNS
X-FACTORS
• AUTOMOTIVE APPLICATIONS OF “BIG DATA”
• ROLE OF AUTO CO. IN HOSTING?
Wednesday, September 11, 13

8. Configurable Culture
THE FACTS
• 65% US & 82% GLOBAL
ADULTS USE THIS STUFF
• USAGE SKYROCKETS WITH
HIGHER INCOME LEVELS
• 5-10 MILLION YOUTUBE VIDS
FOR “MERCEDES BENZ”
• LARGE & GROWING
DIY/MODDING COMMUNITY
Wednesday, September 11, 13

9. Configurable Culture
THE CONSEQUENCES
PROS
• HIGHLY ENGAGED CUSTOMER BASE
• CONSUMER BRANDS = ENTERTAINMENT
• “PIMP MY RIDE” MENTALITY DEEPENS AFFINITY
CONS
• LOSS OF CONTROL OVER MESSAGING, BRANDING AND DESIGN
X-FACTORS
• CO-BRANDING OPPORTUNITIES FOR HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE
MUSIC, TECHNOLOGY, AND THE
RISE OF CONFIGURABLE CULTURE
MASHEDUP
ARAM SINNREICH
Wednesday, September 11, 13

10. Social Media
THE FACTS
• 1/6 OF THE GLOBAL POPULATION IS ON FACEBOOK EACH MONTH
• 1/6 OF FACEBOOK USERS ARE MOBILE-ONLY
• 2.5 BILLION PIECES OF CONTENT SHARED DAILY ON FB
• 70% OF BUSINESSES HAVE GAINED CUSTOMERS VIA FB
• 550 MILLION TWITTER USERS, 500 MILLION TWEETS/DAY
• 25% OF USERS WHO COMPLAIN ABOUT PRODUCTS VIA TWITTER
EXPECT A RESPONSE WITHIN AN HOUR
• FASTEST GROWING TWITTER DEMO = 55-64 YEAR OLDS
Wednesday, September 11, 13

11. Social Media
THE CONSEQUENCES
PROS
• OPPORTUNITY FOR DIRECT, REAL-TIME ENGAGEMENT WITH
CUSTOMER BASE (FOR BETTER AND FOR WORSE)
• EARNED MEDIA VIA VIRAL MARKETING
• BRAND HALO (M-B IS A FORTUNE “SOCIAL MEDIA SUPERSTAR”)
CONS
• INABILITY TO CONTAIN NEGATIVE PR
• SOCIAL FATIGUE: AT BEST, A MOVING TARGET
• HUMAN COSTS DON’T SCALE WELL
X-FACTORS
• “GAMIFICATION” OF TRANSPORTATION?
Wednesday, September 11, 13

12. IP & Open Source
THE FACTS
• IP ACCOUNTS FOR ABOUT HALF THE VALUE OF PUBLIC CO’S
• 2012: RED HAT BOOKED $1B IN REVENUE
• HALF A BILLION WORKS ARE CC LICENSED, INCLUDING:
• WIKIPEDIA
• WHITEHOUSE.GOV
• FLICKR
• AL JAZEERA
• 3/4 OF WEB SITES RUN ON OPEN SOURCE
• “COPYFIGHT” CONTRASTS VALUES OF OPENNESS & PROTECTION
• US REGISTER OF COPYRIGHTS: IP “PRESSURE AND GRIDLOCK”
Wednesday, September 11, 13

13. IP & Open Source
THE CONSEQUENCES
PROS
• RESEARCHERS, MODDERS & BRAND ADVOCATES DO YOUR
WORK FOR YOU
• LOWER PRODUCTION/MARKETING COSTS USING OPEN SOURCE
CONS
• STRONGER IP = INCREASED RISK, LIABILITY, LAWYERS’ FEES
X-FACTORS
• RIGHT OF FIRST SALE?
• INDUCEMENT?
• ANTI-COMMONS RISK TO INNOVATION?
Wednesday, September 11, 13

14. The Middle Term
2015-2018
Wednesday, September 11, 13

15. Augmented Interfaces
THE FACTS
• SAMSUNG GALAXY GEAR LAUNCH: SEPT
25, 2013
• GOOGLE GLASS LAUNCH: 2014
• 11% OF STUDENTS HAVE USED AR
• 1 MILLION LAYAR DOWNLOADS/MONTH
• ABI: 485 MILLION WEARABLE DEVICES
SOLD BY 2018
• IMS: $6 BILLION MARKET BY 2016
Wednesday, September 11, 13

16. Augmented Interfaces
THE CONSEQUENCES
PROS
• COUNTLESS TRANSPORTATION APPLICATIONS
• REAL-TIME SENSOR DATA CAN IMPROVE DRIVER
EXPERIENCE
CONS
• LARGELY BEYOND OEM SCOPE
X-FACTORS
• IMPACT ON DISTRACTED DRIVING?
• INTEGRATION WITH AUTOMOTIVE SYSTEMS?
Wednesday, September 11, 13

17. Mesh Networks
THE FACTS
• DOZENS OF EMERGING STANDARDS
• OPERABLE VIA WIFI, BLUETOOTH, GSM
• RESISTANT TO CENSORSHIP &
SURVEILLANCE
• POTENTIAL TO AUGMENT – OR
DISINTERMEDIATE – WIRELESS CARRIERS
• COMMOTION DEPLOYED SUCCESSFULLY
IN NYC AFTER HURRICANE SANDY
• GUIFI: 22,000 NODES, 40,000 KM
Wednesday, September 11, 13

18. Mesh Networks
THE CONSEQUENCES
PROS
• POTENTIAL FOR AUTO-BASED MESH
• PLATFORM FOR “INTERNET OF THINGS”
• NETWORK SERVICES FOR EMERGING MARKETS
CONS
• SPEED/LATENCY ISSUES
• POTENTIAL FOR NETWORK FRAGMENTATION
X-FACTORS
• SAFE HARBOR FOR MESH PROVIDERS?
Wednesday, September 11, 13

19. 3D Printing
THE FACTS
• OVER 150 COMPOUNDS CAN CURRENTLY BE
PRINTED, FROM CHOCOLATE TO POLYMERS
• WOHLERS: 3D PRINTERS = $10.8B IN 2021
• LUX: 3D PRINTED PARTS = $8.4B IN 2025
• PRICE IN 2008: $10,000
• PRICE IN 2013: $200
• FEB 2014: SINTERING PATENT EXPIRES
• PRINTED GUN: 100,000 DL’S IN 2 DAYS
• MILLIONS OF BLUEPRINTS IN A FEW YEARS
Wednesday, September 11, 13

20. 3D Printing
THE CONSEQUENCES
PROS
• MASSIVE SHIFT IN MANUFACTURING PARADIGM
• CONSUMERS CAN REPLACE/AUGMENT PARTS
CONS
• **SAME AS ABOVE**
X-FACTORS
• MASS ADOPTION COULD UNDERMINE GLOBAL
SHIPPING DEMAND, INFLUENCE AUTO INDUSTRY
• COMING WARS OVER (C) AND “PIRACY”
Wednesday, September 11, 13

21. RTB & Targeting
THE FACTS
• RTB = 20-25% OF ONLINE DISPLAY ADVERTISING
• EMARKETER: $8.7 BILLION IN U.S. IN 2017
• EMARKETER: 180M VIDEO IMPRESSIONS IN 2017
• MOBILE RTB GROWING RAPIDLY
• “HYPER-TARGETING” ACROSS PLATFORMS BASED
ON LOCATION, BEHAVIORAL DATA
• NEXT STOP: TELEVISION
Wednesday, September 11, 13

22. RTB & Targeting
THE CONSEQUENCES
PROS
• RTB ELIMINATES GUESSWORK FROM MARKETING
• NETWORKED DRIVERS YIELD VALUABLE METADATA
CONS
• PRIVACY BACKLASH NEARLY GUARANTEED
X-FACTORS
• AUTO-BASED DATA COLLECTION TO FUEL 3RD-PARTY
TARGETING?
• REAL-TIME, LOCATION-TARGETED IN-CAR MESSAGING?
• FRAUD, BRAND TARNISHMENT, DOMAIN-SQUATTING
Wednesday, September 11, 13

23. Digital Currency
THE FACTS
• PAYPAL TOTAL VOLUME = $145 BILLION
• OVER 50 DEVICES NOW HAVE NFC
• MOBILE PAY WILL HAVE GREATEST
TRACTION IN EMERGING MARKETS
• BITCOIN LAUNCHED 2008
• BC PRICED AT $130, DOWN FROM $230
• BC MARKET > $1 BILLION
• GARTNER: MOBILE PAYMENTS =
$721 BILLION BY 2017
Wednesday, September 11, 13

24. Digital Currency
THE CONSEQUENCES
PROS
• LOWER BARRIERS INCREASE OVERALL
VOLUME OF TRANSACTION
• BOON TO SMALL BUSINESSES
CONS
• P2P CURRENCIES DIFFICULT TO REGULATE
X-FACTORS
• BEYOND EZPASS: AUTOMOBILE AS
TRANSACTION HUB?
Wednesday, September 11, 13

25. The Long Term
2018-???
Wednesday, September 11, 13

26. Integrated Interfaces
FACTS & SPECULATION
• 2012: FIRST AR CONTACT LENS
• 2013: UW SCIENTIST CONTROLS
ANOTHER SCIENTIST’S BODY NEURALLY
• HUDS ALREADY AVAILABLE FROM
GARMIN ($150), 2014 LAUNCH FOR
MERCEDES-BENZ
• KURZWEIL: YOUR BRAIN WILL CONNECT
DIRECTLY TO THE CLOUD WITHIN 30 YEARS
Wednesday, September 11, 13

27. Integrated Interfaces
THE CONSEQUENCES
X-FACTORS
• CYBORGEAN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN
DRIVER AND CAR
• BLURRING LINE BETWEEN PHYSICAL AND
DIGITAL SPACE
• THE END OF MARKETING & ADVERTISING?
• “TRAVEL” REDEFINED VIA VIRTUALITY?
• WILL THE “SINGULARITY” HAPPEN?
Wednesday, September 11, 13

28. Autonomous Cars
FACTS & SPECULATION
• 2012: FIRST AUTONOMOUS LICENSE
• 2013: GOOGLE ACQUIRES WAZE
• 2013: DAIMLER/NOKIA PARTNER
• 2014 MB S-CLASS COULD SELF-DRIVE
• ABI, DAIMLER & NISSAN: 2020 TARGET
YEAR FOR MAINSTREAM
• IEEE: 75% OF CARS BY 2040
• DRIVERLESS CARS NOW STREET LEGAL
IN NEVADA, FLORIDA, CALIFORNIA
Wednesday, September 11, 13

29. Autonomous Cars
THE CONSEQUENCES
X-FACTORS
• 25 BILLION HOURS/YEAR OF COMMUTING IN US
• AT CURRENT HULU RATES, THIS IS WORTH $7.5
BILLION IN ATTENTION FOR IN-CAR SERVICES
• MASSIVE SAFETY/EFFICIENCY BOOST
• WHO OWNS THE NETWORK?
• WHO OWNS THE DATA?
• WHO IS LIABLE?
• WHAT ABOUT HACKERS?
Wednesday, September 11, 13

30. Thank you.
Questions?
Aram Sinnreich
sinn@rutgers.edu
Twitter: @aram
sinnreich.com
This entire presentation is freely available under a Creative Commons 3.0 Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike license
MUSIC, TECHNOLOGY, AND THE
RISE OF CONFIGURABLE CULTURE
MASHEDUP
ARAM SINNREICH
Wednesday, September 11, 13