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The future of Communication Technology.
What will Communication Technology look like in 2022?
By Brian Lewis
http://www.slideshare.net/bklewis55/final-project-by-brian-lewis-for-comm-tech
Computers (Electric) have come along way since their invention. During the
1980’s computers went from Mainframes or Terminal access to a Mainframe, to
Personal Computer (PC’s). Since then computers have continue to advance at
a rapid rate. In the future more people will be able to access their personal
information in the “Cloud”. With Apple I Cloud you can access all of your
personal information from any apple device such as the new Apple Mac Pro Air
or your Apple I Phone. All of your information will be stored on servers. You will
no longer have to worry about backing up all of your information, all the time.
How many times in the past has someone lost all the files because of a
Personal Computers Crashing?
Social Learning Theory/Social
Cognitive Theory
The Social Learning Theory is defined as how do people learn from the
behaviors of others. TV and the internet are power tools for learning by
observation. For example if a home owner has a slow leak in the bathroom
sink, he can call a plumber or fix the Faucet himself by watching a plumber on
YouTube.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YneOjcOnrw4
Gratification Theory and TV's of the Future
Developed by Katz in the 1970’s. This theory is defined by people who want
and need Communication Technology to fulfill their personal need for pleasure.
This important information for company’s that build TV’s such as
Sony, Samsung and LG. An more specific example of this would be customers
who purchase a TV over 42 inch screen. Clearly a family TV that is 60 inches
wide is used for family pleasure and gratification. In the future TV’s will have
everything you need for entertainment. TV’s of the future will become Smart TV’s.
Smart TV’s will be used for watching movies (in 3-D), news, Video Phone, Video
Arcade, and used as computer. By the year 2022 more than likely the majority of
American will own a Smart TV.
Roger’s Diffusion of Innovation Theory was developed in the 1960’s by Everett Rogers.
There are five steps to this model, this is an example of how it works.
1. Knowledge- You just found out that Apple released the new IOS7 phone.
2. Persuasion- How do you feel about this new product? Good or Bad.
3. Accept or Reject the innovation. Will you go buy it? Are you motivated enough to buy?
4. Implementation – You go and buy the Apple IOS7 Cell Phone.
5. Confirmation- The IOS7 is met or exceed you expectations.
In this example, if Apple had met the customer’s expectations than the they are more likely to
have a loyal customer for years to come. The balancing act for corporations is sell a new
product, without over selling it. If product was hyped up but did not exceed your expectations
than they lost a loyal customer.
Roger’s Diffusion of Innovations
Apple new iOS 7 Google Nexus 4
Communication Technology Companies such as Apple and Google will
compete against each other to create the most innovative communication
technology ever. More than likely only a small segment of the over all
population will rush to buy the newest phones from Apple and Google.
The few that do will help to move the technology forward, so that majority
will use this technology. This is an example of Critical Mass Theory. This
communication technology will continue to improve well beyond 2022.
1980’s Cell Phones
Moore’s Innovation Adoption Rate
Early Adopters Innovators
Early Majority
Late Majority
Laggards
When the PC came out in the early 1980’s Moore Innovation model was used. Very few
people actually bought a new PC computer. It is important to note without the Early
Adopters Innovators and Early Majority company’s such IBM would not have made
enough money to cover operating expense and would sell new product with a loss.
The new 3-D TV currently being sold now follow the Moore’s Innovation Rate Theory. 3
D TV’s would fall into the Early Majority . 3-D TV are new but are not the majority in
Media System Dependency Theory
Is the relationship between the user and the Media that they are using. For
example the “Cable Company”. Most of us use Cable TV but our needs or
priorities, and perspective are different from the cable company. Six
dimensions make up Media Systems Dependency Theory.
1. Social understanding, (learning about your environment)
2. Self Understanding, (know yourself)
3. Action Orientation, (understanding specific behaviors)
4. Interaction Orientation, (understanding behaviors of others)
5. Solitary Play, (providing entertainment to yourself)
6. Social Play (Media use for social interaction, like Facebook)
The Theory of the Long TailPopularity
HEAD
Long Tail
Products
The Long Tail Theory explains why rating of popular TV
shows and movies would be considered a failure in
years past. This is because people had less choices of
media in years past. Today with cable TV and the
internet TV people have a variety of programs which
limits the amount of viewers because of the variety of
Media. This also applies to traditional TV News such as
ABC, CBS and NBC. 20 years ago they were dominated
the news. However today they still dominate the overall
rating, but they are much lower due to CNN, and
FOXNEWS.
Education in the Future will help drive
Communication Technology
“As more and more of the work in a society occurs online, it becomes possible
to engage more and more learners in "teleapprenticeships." These are formal
educational frameworks that engage people in learning through their remote
participation in ongoing work settings.” (James Levin University of Illinois 2002).
The Umbrella Perspective
The Umbrella Perspective on Communication Technology stems from Everett M
Rogers and Sandra J Ball-R, writings on communication technology. Rogers
defined communication technology as “The hardware equipment, organizational
structures and social values by which individuals collect, process and exchange
information with other individuals(Grant and Meadows 2008).” Ball-R, suggests
that “communication media can be understood by analyzing dependency
relations within and across levels of analysis, including the
individual, organizational and system levels.” She also identifies “three systems
for analysis: the media system, the political system and the economic system
(Grant and Meadows 2008).” The hardware is the physical equipment related to
the use of the technology. Software is defined as the information manipulated by
the computer as well as the instructions used by the computer to manipulate the
data (Grant and Meadows 2008).
Sources
http://www.google.com/search?q=technology+of+the+future&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=EpD6UaCaFLGq4AOk4YH
oCg&sqi=2&ved=0CE4QsAQ&biw=1366&bih=639
http://www.google.com/nexus/
http://www.google.com/search?q=future+tv+2020+pictures&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=5xz
8UfHFGtGt4AP2wIG4BA&ved=0CCoQsAQ&biw=1366&bih=639
http://www.google.com/search?output=search&sclient=psy-
ab&q=picture+of+family+watching+tv&oq=picture+of+family+watching+tv&gs_l=hp.3..0j0i22i30l4.2039.17440.1.17928.44.35.2.0.0.3.
2197.17466.6-1j7j1j3.12.0....0...1c.1.23.hp..33.11.11345.GKYNdfA-
http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy-
ab&q=Personal+computer+in+the+1980&oq=Personal+computer+in+the+1980&gs_l=hp.3..0j0i22i30l3.791.7552.1.8020.16.12.0
.0.0.3.1923.11392.6-1j3j4.8.0....0...1c.1.23.psy-
http://techland.time.com/2012/08/13/the-future-of-personal-computing-cloud-connected-screens-everywhere/
http://www.apple.com/icloud/ www.apple.com
http://www.apple.com/macbook-air/
http://www.google.com/#output=search&sclient=psy-
ab&q=Picture+of+IBM+Mainframe+from+1980%27s&oq=Picture+of+IBM+Mainframe+from+1980%27s&gs_l=hp.3...1008.11937.1.
12715.36.31.0.0.0.3.1875.24347.6-
http://www.houzz.com/ideabooks/2242148/list/How-Smart-TV-Will-Change-Your-Living-Room
http://wikicommedia.wikispaces.com/Umbrella+Perspective
http://faculty.education.illinois.edu/j-levin/2020-vision.html
http://www.google.com/search?biw=1518&bih=714&tbm=isch&sa=1&q=pictures+of+long+tailed+tiger&btnG=#biw=1518&bih=714&tb
ch&sa=1&q=pictures+of+tiger&oq=pictures+of+tiger&gs

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