IFPRI Policy Seminar "A New Path Forward: Agriculture and Food Security Strategy for South Sudan" at IFPRI on 23 October 2012 by Shahidur Rashid, IFPRI.

1. Agriculture in South Sudan
Some Thoughts on the Path Forward
Shahidur Rashid
International Food Policy Research Institute
October 23, 2012
Washington, DC
This presentation relies on materials from an IFPRI 2011 report, “Current Condition and
Agricultural Potential in South Sudan” by Xinshen Diao, Liangzhi You, Vida Alpuerto and
Renato Folledo, funded by the World Bank; and some initial works for the WFP-South
Sudan.
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

2. Understanding Agricultural Potential
South Sudan has high
agricultural potential, however
77% of potentially cultivatable
land ( more than 50 million ha)
are covered with trees, shrubs
and grass
Only 2.5 million hectares of
land are readily available for
crop cultivation, with per capita
crop land of 0.32 ha
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3. Understanding Agricultural Potential
 Converting about 6% of
tree and shrub covered
land would increase total
cropped area to 6.3 million
hectares
 Area expansion potential
is high in the Greenbelt as
well as the Eastern and
Western Flood Plains
 At the state level, most
new land will be in
Western Bahr el Ghazal,
Lakes, and the Equatoria
states
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

4. Food Shortage and Vulnerability
 During 2004-2011, average 70%
consumption requirement of Cereal imports as % consumption requirement
cereal was 1.8 million tons 60%
50%
 Cereal import was 30-60% of
this consumption requirement
40%
 On an average, RSS had to
feed more than a million food
30%
insecure people.
20%
10%
If a yield rate of 2.0 tons /ha is
achieved, South Sudan can be
cereal self sufficient by 0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
allocating only one million ha
of land!! Cereal Import as % of consumption
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5. Systemic Bottlenecks in South Sudan Agriculture
Lack of Market Fundamentals
Cereal markets are thin and
lack spatial integration
Maize prices in production
areas as percentage of Juba
prices vary from as low as
40% to as high as 160%!
The same estimate for
sorghum is 70-160%!
Very different price trends in
two substitutes!
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

6. Systemic Bottlenecks in South Sudan Agriculture
$1,600
Agricultural output value $1,400
Revenue per ha of land (US$)
per hectare of land in $1,400
South Sudan is $1,200
substantially lower than
$1,000 $920
its neighbors because:
$800
$660
Low farm productivity $600
(low modern input use
due to high input prices) $400 $300
$200
Low farm gate price due
to high transaction costs $0
Kenya Ethiopia Uganda S. Sudan
All of South Sudan’s neighbors are more competitive
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

7. Looking Forward
The task ahead is obvious
Agro-ecological Economically
Potential Viable Agriculture
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

8. Looking Forward
Making agriculture economically viable is
particularly important for South Sudan
because:
 South Sudan has to avoid resource trap
 South Sudan has to avoid Dutch Disease
 Oil revenues (an inflow of foreign exchange) will tend
to lead to real exchange rate appreciation.
 Real (inflation-adjusted) prices of tradable agriculture
(including all cereals) would tend to fall
 Without major domestic investments to increase
productivity, profitability of tradable good will decline
(“Dutch disease” effects)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

9. Looking Forward
The key steps to face these challenges are outlined by H.E. Dr.
Betty Achan Ogwaro
However, executing each of step will require firm commitment
from the government and support from the development
partners in areas of respective core competencies.
One area where IFPRI can support is advancing an evidence
based food and agricultural policy agenda by focusing on:
 Building analytical capacity (government agencies; universities;
think tank)
 Establishing institutional mechanism to link to feed analysis into
policy making
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