Presentation by Dr. Dan Vimont for the Climate Change and Midwest Agriculture: Impacts, Challenges, & Opportunities workshop held by the USDA Midwest Climate Hub on March 1-2, 2016.

1. Climate
Change
in
Wisconsin
and
the
Midwest
Daniel
J.
Vimont
University
of
Wisconsin
– Madison
Atmospheric
and
Oceanic
Sciences
Nelson
Institute
Center
for
Climatic
Research
Wisconsin
Initiative
on
Climate
Change
Impacts
(WICCI)
@DanVimont

2. The
Wisconsin
Initiative
on
Climate
Change
Impacts
WICCI
WICCI:
Enabling
climate
adaptation
in
Wisconsin
and
the
Midwest
www.wicci.wisc.edu

3. The
Wisconsin
Initiative
on
Climate
Change
Impacts
Climate
Information
AdaptationWICCI
WICCI’s
missionis
to
generate
and
share
information
that
can
limit
vulnerability
to
climate
change
in
Wisconsin
and
the
Upper
Midwest.

4. Outline
Downscaled
Climate
Data
Temperature
Changes
and
Impacts
Precipitation
Changes
and
Impacts
What
do
people
really
care
about?

5. Problem: Climate models have coarse spatial resolution.
Downscaling: Focus global projections to a scale relevant
to climate impacts.
Global à Local Climate Change

6. Problems with simple interpolation:

7. Global to Local Climate Change
Moving from Global to Regional
Downscaling Method:
Downscale Probability
Distribution, instead of
actual variable.
Advantages:
• PDF is large-­scale, so method is “truer” to existing data
• Extreme events are well characterized
• PDFs are more flexible – allows a variety of applications
Work by David Lorenz -­ WICCI Climate Working Group /
UMGL LCC

8. Future Climate Projections:
Global Climate Model data from CMIP3 (IPCC AR4)
• Numerous (13) models used, to obtain a range of
possible future projections
Downscaling methodology resolves the range of
probable climate change
• Range is essential for impact assessment
• Extremes are well represented
Probability distributions are FLEXIBLE!
• Data can be used in a number of different ways, by
groups with very different needs

9. Outline
l Downscaled Climate Data
l Temperature Changes and Impacts
l Precipitation Changes and Impacts
l What do people really care about?

11. Annual Temperature Change

12. Annual Temperature Change
Wisconsin will warm
by 3°– 9°F by mid-­
21st century

13. Winter Temperature Change
Warming is most
pronounced for
winter nights
(Wisconsin winters
warm by 5°–
12°F by mid-­21st
century)

14. Cold Days
Days < 32°F Days < 0°F
Fewer Cold / Extremely Cold Days

16. Winter Impacts

17. Freeze / Thaw Cycles
Fewer Freeze / Thaw
Cycles per year
1950-­2000: ~95 freeze /
thaw cycles per year.
2046-­2065: 60-­85
freeze / thaw cycles per
year: a decrease of
about 15-­30%

18. Summer Temperature Change
Warming is least
pronounced for
summer days
(Wisconsin warms
by 2°– 8°F by
mid-­21st century)

19. Extreme Heat
Mid-­Century: More “very hot” days
Days > 90°F Days > 100°F

20. Extreme Heat
More hot days AND hot nights

21. Extreme Heat: Daytime Highs
Realistic temporal structure
allows investigation of event
duration.
Heat waves: 3 to 5
times more frequent
Days >
90°F

22. Extreme Heat: Daytime Highs
Realistic temporal structure
allows investigation of event
duration.
Nights > 70°F
Night heat waves:
5 times more frequent

23. THI: Extreme Caution, and Danger
By mid-­century, “Danger”
heat index becomes a
regular occurence

24. Vapor Pressure Deficit
Warmer temperatures, similar relative humidity
è Increased VPD by about 10%-­25%

25. Regional Perspectives
Extreme Heat Extreme Cold

26. Outline
Downscaled
Climate
Data
Temperature
Changes
and
Impacts
Precipitation
Changes
and
Impacts
What
do
people
really
care
about?

27. Annual Precipitation Change
Wisconsin will get
0%–15% wetter by
mid-­21st century

28. Winter Precipitation Change
Robust increase in
Precipitation during
Winter and Spring

29. More winter/spring precipitation
= Increased groundwater recharge
Runoff Recharge ET Precip
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Meanannualchange(mm)
CRCM ccsm
CRCM cgcm3
HRM3 gfdl
HRM3 hadcm3
Mean
Annual
Change
(mm)
Runoff
Recharge
ET
Precipitation
Black
Earth
Creek
Watershed
1971-­‐1999
vs
2041-­‐2069
Evan
Murdock
45%
Winter
+20-­‐25%
Winter
+6-­‐7⁰F

30. Increased
recharge
=
Groundwater
flooding
Spring Green -­ 2008
Especially in
communities
that do not
disinfect
Rising water table can result in
groundwater contamination
Gotkowitz & Liebl, 2013

31. Summer Precipitation Change
No consensus
during Summer!

32. Summer Precipitation Change

33. Large Precipitation Events
Southern Wisconsin could see a
30% increase in the number of
large rainfall events

34. Outline
Downscaled
Climate
Data
Temperature
Changes
and
Impacts
Precipitation
Changes
and
Impacts
What
do
people
really
care
about?

35. The
arrow
of
time
1950 2015 20502025
Long
planning
horizons
Climate
change
occurs
over
decades,
are
stakeholder
planning
and
management
strategies
in
the
same
time
frame?
42.8⁰F
48.7⁰F
Stakeholder
planning
horizons

36. What
have
you
heard
from
your
stakeholders
about
changes
in,
or
events
caused
by,
Wisconsin's
weather?
Most
stakeholders
(n
=
82)
talk
about
the
weather
It's
the
weather!
(21%)
Agriculture
&
Weather
(34%)
Precipitation
&
Weather
(21%)
Other
topics
(24%)
Climate
change
(29%)
Agriculture
&
CC
(36%)
Precipitation
&
CC
(3%)
Other
topics
(31%)
About
half
as
many
(n =
42)
talk
about
climate
change
Most
people
are
thinking
short
term
weather

37. 0 5 10 15 20 %
Increased
numbers
and
intensity
of heavy
rain
events/floods
Rising
groundwater levels
Which
climate
impacts
affect
your
stakeholders?
Percent
of
all
answers
(n=912)
Drought
periods
in
late
summer
Increased
duration
and
intensity
of
heat
waves
Long
periods
of
extreme
cold
More
precipitation in
fall,
winter
and
spring
Warm,
wet
winters
w/frequent
ice
storms
They
are
most
concerned
about
extreme
weather

38. Additional
Resources
WICCI
Assessment
Report:
http://www.wicci.wisc.edu/publications.php
National
Climate
Assessment:
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
National
Academies
Climate
Change:
http://nas-­‐sites.org/americasclimatechoices/
Risky
Business:
http://riskybusiness.org/