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Ecosystem Response to Climate Change
The document discusses how climate change is expected to impact ecosystems through warmer temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and sea level rise over the next century. This will present both challenges like increased risk of drought, changes in suitable habitat for some species, and greater disturbance from extreme weather events and opportunities such as longer growing seasons. The impacts on ecosystems will vary locally depending on site-specific factors like soil conditions, topography, and land use.
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Ecosystem Response to Climate Change
- 1. Ecosystem Response to ClimateChange Big question: How is the place you care about vulnerable to climate change?
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- 5. Warmer Temperatures Figure: Walshet al. 2014 (NCA) • Temperature has increased 1.3°F to 1.9°F since 1895 in the US – Greater increases in the north – Greater increases in recent decades
- 6. Altered Precipitation Figure: Walshet al. 2014 (NCA), glisa.umich.edu • Changes variable by geography and season – More extreme rainfall events, especially in the east Annual precipitation Extreme precipitation
- 7. Sea-level Rise • Sealevel rose about 1 foot since 1900 • Increases in coastal flooding Adapted from J. Boothroyd, Univ. of Rhode Island www.climate.gov/news-features/features/rhode-islands-rising-tide Relative sea level rise: Newport, RI tide gauge Increased about 10” over last 100 years
- 8. Other Observed Changes WarmerWater/Reduced Ice Cover 71% reduction in Great Lakes ice cover (1973-2010) Altered Soil Temperature and Frost Fewer soil frost days Altered freeze-thaw cycles Longer Growing Seasons Arrive weeks earlier More days with leaves Figure: Walsh et al. 2014 (NCA)
- 9. And Everything Else Climateis not the complete story, but the story’s not complete without it. Shifley et al. 2014
- 10. How is theclimate expected to change over the next century?
- 11. Future Changes: InherentUncertainty IPCC 2007, Graphic: C. Wake, Univ. New HampshireFigure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA)
- 12. Warmer Temperatures • Temperaturerises of 3.0°F and greater – Greater increases in the north – Greater increases with higher emissions – More extreme hot – Less extreme cold Figure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA) Annual Temperature
- 13. Altered precipitation • Greateruncertainty – Winter: wetter in northern regions Figure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA) Winter Precipitation
- 14. Altered precipitation • Greateruncertainty – Winter: wetter in northern regions – Summer: uncertain, but potentially drier due to warmer temperatures – More extreme events Figure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA) Summer Precipitation
- 15. Drier Conditions Figures: K.Kunkel 2013 (NCA) and Wehner et al. 2011 (adapted for NCA) Consecutive Dry Days Extreme Drought
- 16. Sea-level Rise • Continuedincreases of multiple feet • Enhanced storm surge Projected of areas affected by sea level rise along Rhode Island sea coast Figure: STORMTOOLS, www.beachsamp.org/resources/understand-risk/
- 17. How could ecosystems beaffected?
- 18. Increased Carbon Dioxide Image:www.science.howstuffworks.com
- 19. Increased Carbon Dioxide Opportunity:Increased productivity from CO2 – Increased photosynthesis – Increased water use efficiency Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011
- 20. Increased Carbon Dioxide Opportunity:Increased productivity* – Increased photosynthesis – Increased water use efficiency *Effect likely limited: – Limited sink strength – Interactions with nitrogen – Ozone damage – Other reductions in productivity (e.g., moisture stress, disturbance) Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011
- 21. Longer Growing Seasons Warmertemps result in longer growing seasons • Evidence of phenological shifts • Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks Opportunity: Longer period for plant growth Melillo et al. 2014 (NCA), Nelson Center 2014
- 22. Longer Growing Seasons Warmertemps result in longer growing seasons • Evidence of phenological shifts • Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks Opportunity: Longer period for plant growth Challenge: Potential risks from altered seasonality • Early bud break/loss of cold hardening • Frost damage during spring freezing
- 23. Shorter Winter =Less Snow Projected decreases in snow fall, cover, and depth 30-70% decreases in snowfall in eastern US by end of century Figure: Notaro et al. 2014; https://nelson.wisc.edu/ccr/ Low emissions High emissions
- 24. Shorter Winter =Less Snow Challenge: Decreased snowpack • Increased soil frost and root damage in cold temps • Warmer soil temperatures and altered processes • Altered soil water recharge Campbell et al. 2009, Groffman et al. Rittenhouse and Rissman 2015
- 25. Shorter Winter =Less Snow, More Rain Precipitation is projected to increase = more rain
- 26. Shorter Winter =Less Snow, More Rain Precipitation is projected to increase = more rain Challenge: Altered stream flow timing and amount • Earlier spring peak flows • Potential increases in flashiness and episodic high flows • Potential declines in summer seasonal stream flow
- 27. Longer Growing Season+ Altered Precip Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress Water loss from soils (evaporation) Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Runoff Precipitation
- 28. Longer Growing Season+ Altered Precip Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress Water loss from soils (evaporation) Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Runoff Precipitation Warmer temps increase water loss
- 29. Longer Growing Season+ Altered Precip Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress Water loss from soils (evaporation) Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Runoff Precipitation Warmer temps increase water loss
- 30. Changes in HabitatSuitability Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species
- 31. Changes in HabitatSuitability Habitat based on: • Temperature • Precipitation • Elevation • Latitude • Soils • Slope & Aspect • Land use • Competition • Management
- 32. Changes in HabitatSuitability Habitat based on: • Temperature • Precipitation • Elevation • Latitude • Soils • Slope & Aspect • Land use • Competition • Management Climate Change Atlas: What happens to tree and bird habitat when climate changes? •134 Trees •147 Birds Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas
- 33. Changes in HabitatSuitability 2070-2100 Low 2070-2100 High Current Distribution Importance Value Low High Legend all_spp_current fia_802 1.000000 1.000001 - 4.000000 4.000001 - 6.000000 6.000001 - 9.000000 9.000001 - 11.000000 11.000001 - 14.000000 14.000001 - 23.000000 Sugar Maple Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas
- 34. Changes in HabitatSuitability 2070-2100 Low 2070-2100 High Current Distribution Importance Value Low High Legend all_spp_current fia_802 1.000000 1.000001 - 4.000000 4.000001 - 6.000000 6.000001 - 9.000000 9.000001 - 11.000000 11.000001 - 14.000000 14.000001 - 23.000000 White Oak Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas
- 35. Changes in HabitatSuitability Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species • Many common tree species are projected to have reduced suitability in the future • Changes will occur slowly—not instant dieback • Mature and established trees should fare better • Immense lags to occupy habitats • Critical factors: competition, management, & disturbance
- 36. Extreme Events Challenge: Increaseddisturbance from extreme events • Heavy precipitation • Ice storms • Heat waves/droughts • Wind storms • Hurricanes • “Events” are not well modeled VTRANS/VT ANR NY DEC Dan Turner, Cambridge Fire Dept.
- 37. Interactions: Wildfire Clark etal. 2014 Challenge: Increased wildfire potential Figure: K. Hayhoe 2013 (NCA)
- 38. Interactions: Wildfire Fire mayincrease: • Warmer/drier summers • Increased stress or mortality from less suitable conditions • Shift toward fire-associated species like oaks and pines Fire may not change: • Spring/early summer moisture • Current regeneration of more mesic species • Land use and fragmentation • Fire suppression Clark et al. 2014 Challenge: Increased wildfire potential
- 39. Interactions: Insects andDisease Indirect: Stress from other impacts increases susceptibility Direct: • Pests migrating northward • Decreased probability of cold lethal temperatures • Accelerated lifecycles Ayres and Lombardero 2000, Woods et al. 2005, Parmesan 2006, Dukes et al. 2009 Image: Frumhoff et al. 2007 Hemlock woolly adelgid lethal temp: -20 to -30°F Challenge: Increased pests and forest diseases Figure: NCA
- 40. Interactions: Invasive Plants Indirect:Stress or disturbance from other impacts can affect the potential for invasion or success Direct: • Expanded ranges under warmer conditions • Increased competitiveness from ability of some plants to take advantage of elevated CO2 Dukes et al. 2009, Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New England (www.eddmaps.org) Challenge: Increased invasive & noxious plants
- 41. Interactions: Unexpected Responses Figure(white box): Northern Rockies Fire Science Network Human actions
- 42. Effects on Ecosystems GenerallyChallenges • Reduced growth: moisture stress • Decline of northern/boreal species • Disturbance from extreme events • Wildfire potential • Forests pests & disease • Invasive species Generally Opportunities • Increased productivity: longer growing season • Increased productivity: more CO2 • Increased habitat for some species What would you add?
- 43. Local Considerations Research andassessments describe broad trends but local conditions make the difference.